ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 525
Avg Goals 2.20
Avg Home 1.29
Avg Away 0.92
Home Win % 48.8%
Draw % 28.2%
Away Win % 23.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 525
Avg Brier Score 0.6243
Pick Accuracy 49.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6273
Market Brier 0.6227
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 525 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 4 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.7% 13.3% 75
20–30% 26.7% 24.5% 640
30–40% 33.1% 34.0% 474
40–50% 44.9% 48.5% 268
50–60% 53.3% 54.5% 110
60–70% 63.0% 87.5% 8
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Amazonas FC vs AA Aparecidense 0-0 50% 58% -12.8 29% 32% -10.1 21% 22% -7.4
06.08.23 AE Altos vs Paysandu SC 1-1 31% 33% -7.5 30% 33% -10.6 39% 47% -15.3
06.08.23 Clube Do Remo vs Volta Redonda 2-1 43% 49% -12.2 30% 33% -10.5 27% 31% -11.2
06.08.23 Figueirense vs America-RN 3-0 40% 45% -12.1 30% 34% -11.0 30% 34% -11.8
06.08.23 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Brusque SC 2-0 40% 45% -12.7 31% 36% -12.5 29% 32% -9.9
08.08.23 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Floresta EC 3-1 45% 51% -13.0 29% 32% -9.2 26% 29% -8.7
08.08.23 Botafogo FC PB vs EC Sao Jose 1-1 47% 53% -12.4 30% 33% -10.2 23% 25% -7.2
12.08.23 AA Aparecidense vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-0 44% 50% -12.9 30% 33% -10.4 27% 29% -9.6
12.08.23 Sao Bernardo FC vs Amazonas FC 2-1 45% 51% -12.2 30% 33% -10.4 25% 28% -9.6
13.08.23 Brusque SC vs AE Altos 3-0 65% 77% -15.9 23% 23% -0.0 13% 11% 10.1
13.08.23 CS Alagoano vs Botafogo FC PB 1-1 42% 48% -11.0 32% 36% -11.8 26% 29% -8.6
13.08.23 Paysandu SC vs Nautico 4-2 46% 53% -13.8 30% 34% -11.0 24% 26% -6.5
13.08.23 Volta Redonda vs Operario Ferroviario EC 1-1 42% 49% -13.2 30% 33% -10.4 28% 31% -9.6
14.08.23 EC Sao Jose vs Figueirense 3-3 47% 54% -13.9 30% 33% -10.3 24% 25% -5.7
15.08.23 Floresta EC vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 2-0 39% 43% -10.5 32% 37% -13.1 29% 32% -10.4
19.08.23 Botafogo FC PB vs AD Confianca Aracaju 2-3 48% 55% -12.2 28% 31% -8.9 24% 26% -10.5
19.08.23 Brusque SC vs Nautico 2-2 46% 53% -14.5 29% 32% -9.5 25% 27% -7.1
20.08.23 EC Sao Jose vs Amazonas FC 1-0 45% 52% -13.4 29% 32% -9.0 26% 28% -7.3
20.08.23 Manaus FC vs Floresta EC 0-0 43% 50% -13.6 30% 33% -10.4 27% 29% -8.5
21.08.23 Paysandu SC vs Pouso Alegre FC 2-1 68% 81% -16.3 21% 20% 4.8 12% 10% 15.3
21.08.23 Volta Redonda vs Figueirense 2-0 49% 57% -13.9 28% 31% -8.3 23% 24% -7.4
22.08.23 Sao Bernardo FC vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 1-0 48% 56% -12.7 29% 31% -8.6 23% 25% -8.3
26.08.23 AA Aparecidense vs Volta Redonda 2-3 38% 43% -11.4 30% 33% -10.2 32% 36% -11.7
26.08.23 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Paysandu SC 1-0 45% 53% -16.0 29% 32% -8.9 26% 26% -2.3
26.08.23 Amazonas FC vs CS Alagoano 1-0 47% 56% -14.5 29% 32% -9.7 23% 25% -6.5
26.08.23 Figueirense vs Manaus FC 0-0 47% 53% -12.9 29% 32% -9.4 24% 26% -8.1
26.08.23 Floresta EC vs America-RN 1-0 38% 42% -10.8 31% 35% -11.5 32% 36% -11.8
26.08.23 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Brusque SC 1-0 51% 60% -14.1 29% 31% -8.7 20% 21% -3.4
26.08.23 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Botafogo FC PB 1-1 50% 58% -13.9 29% 31% -8.3 21% 22% -3.5
02.09.23 EC Sao Jose vs Brusque SC 1-2 44% 51% -12.9 30% 33% -10.2 26% 29% -8.7
03.09.23 Botafogo FC PB vs Amazonas FC 2-1 43% 51% -14.1 30% 34% -10.9 26% 29% -7.6
03.09.23 Paysandu SC vs Volta Redonda 1-1 50% 60% -15.9 27% 29% -5.5 23% 24% -3.6
09.09.23 Amazonas FC vs Paysandu SC 0-1 41% 47% -11.8 30% 34% -10.1 29% 31% -8.7
10.09.23 Brusque SC vs Sao Bernardo FC 1-0 46% 53% -14.3 30% 33% -10.1 24% 26% -4.7
11.09.23 Volta Redonda vs Botafogo FC PB 2-1 46% 54% -14.2 28% 31% -8.1 25% 28% -8.6
16.09.23 Amazonas FC vs Volta Redonda 2-0 43% 49% -10.9 30% 33% -10.4 27% 30% -12.0
17.09.23 Paysandu SC vs Botafogo FC PB 1-0 52% 61% -15.0 28% 30% -7.7 21% 21% -2.6
18.09.23 Brusque SC vs Operario Ferroviario EC 4-3 41% 48% -13.3 31% 34% -11.0 28% 30% -7.4
23.09.23 Botafogo FC PB vs Paysandu SC 2-3 38% 43% -11.7 31% 36% -12.0 30% 33% -9.5
24.09.23 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Brusque SC 1-2 47% 54% -13.2 30% 34% -10.9 23% 24% -6.2
24.09.23 Volta Redonda vs Amazonas FC 0-2 48% 56% -14.1 29% 31% -8.7 24% 26% -7.5
30.09.23 Sao Bernardo FC vs Brusque SC 2-0 50% 59% -14.9 29% 31% -8.3 21% 22% -1.9
01.10.23 Botafogo FC PB vs Volta Redonda 1-2 45% 53% -14.1 28% 31% -8.2 27% 29% -9.9
01.10.23 Paysandu SC vs Amazonas FC 1-2 48% 56% -13.0 29% 31% -8.5 23% 25% -7.8
07.10.23 Amazonas FC vs Botafogo FC PB 2-0 58% 70% -17.0 25% 26% -2.5 17% 15% 7.3
07.10.23 Volta Redonda vs Paysandu SC 1-0 44% 51% -13.7 29% 31% -8.4 28% 31% -9.7
08.10.23 Brusque SC vs EC Sao Jose 0-0 40% 44% -10.5 30% 34% -10.8 30% 34% -13.0
15.10.23 Amazonas FC vs Brusque SC 0-0 45% 52% -13.6 29% 32% -9.4 26% 29% -8.9
22.10.23 Brusque SC vs Amazonas FC 1-2 44% 50% -12.8 30% 33% -10.4 27% 29% -9.7
20.04.24 Clube Do Remo vs Volta Redonda 1-2 51% 59% -12.8 28% 30% -8.5 21% 23% -9.2
21.04.24 Caxias do Sul vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 0-4 48% 56% -13.4 28% 30% -7.7 24% 26% -9.1
21.04.24 Figueirense vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 2-1 45% 51% -11.3 29% 32% -9.5 25% 29% -11.4
21.04.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs CS Alagoano 3-1 42% 48% -12.3 29% 32% -9.7 29% 33% -12.6
22.04.24 Floresta EC vs Botafogo FC PB 1-2 31% 36% -14.1 30% 33% -11.2 40% 43% -8.6
23.04.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Londrina PR 1-1 38% 41% -8.0 29% 31% -8.1 34% 40% -15.7
23.04.24 Ferroviaria vs ABC 1-1 47% 54% -12.6 29% 32% -9.4 24% 26% -8.2
27.04.24 Sampaio Correa vs Figueirense 1-1 40% 45% -11.0 30% 34% -10.8 29% 33% -12.1
28.04.24 CS Alagoano vs Ferroviaria 1-1 38% 42% -7.9 31% 34% -11.2 31% 36% -14.7
28.04.24 Londrina PR vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 0-4 39% 43% -9.8 30% 34% -10.6 30% 35% -13.2
29.04.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Caxias do Sul 1-1 44% 50% -12.5 30% 33% -10.5 26% 29% -10.1
29.04.24 Volta Redonda vs Floresta EC 2-1 50% 57% -12.6 28% 31% -9.1 22% 24% -9.0
30.04.24 EC Sao Jose vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-2 51% 60% -13.8 27% 29% -7.2 21% 23% -7.4
04.05.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Tombense FC 0-2 34% 37% -7.7 31% 36% -12.1 34% 40% -13.9
05.05.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Clube Do Remo 1-0 45% 53% -14.5 30% 33% -10.5 25% 27% -6.9
05.05.24 Figueirense vs AA Aparecidense 2-0 46% 53% -14.0 29% 32% -9.2 25% 27% -6.4
05.05.24 Floresta EC vs Ferroviaria 1-4 36% 40% -10.6 32% 36% -12.9 33% 37% -12.0
12.05.24 Ferroviaria vs Nautico 2-1 44% 53% -15.7 30% 33% -10.4 26% 27% -4.6
13.05.24 Clube Do Remo vs Floresta EC 1-0 53% 62% -13.5 27% 29% -7.8 19% 21% -7.5
13.05.24 Volta Redonda vs Botafogo FC PB 1-3 40% 45% -12.8 30% 33% -10.2 30% 34% -10.2
18.05.24 Volta Redonda vs Nautico 2-1 42% 49% -14.8 30% 33% -10.3 29% 31% -7.1
19.05.24 Ferroviaria vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-0 53% 61% -13.7 27% 29% -7.3 20% 21% -6.0
21.05.24 Floresta EC vs Figueirense 0-2 31% 33% -6.3 31% 34% -11.5 38% 45% -15.8
25.05.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs ABC 0-0 40% 45% -12.4 31% 34% -11.5 30% 33% -11.0
26.05.24 Figueirense vs Ferroviaria 0-1 40% 44% -10.9 30% 34% -10.5 30% 34% -11.3
26.05.24 Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo FC PB 0-1 39% 45% -14.2 31% 35% -11.4 30% 32% -6.6
27.05.24 Londrina PR vs Volta Redonda 1-1 38% 41% -8.0 30% 33% -10.3 33% 38% -15.4
29.05.24 Floresta EC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-2 41% 45% -10.4 30% 34% -10.8 29% 33% -12.8
30.05.24 EC Sao Jose vs Volta Redonda 1-3 35% 38% -7.0 31% 34% -11.4 34% 41% -15.9
30.05.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Figueirense 1-0 42% 48% -11.6 30% 33% -10.7 28% 32% -12.7
01.06.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs AA Aparecidense 3-1 44% 51% -13.1 30% 34% -10.5 26% 28% -7.1
02.06.24 Caxias do Sul vs Figueirense 2-1 37% 38% -3.9 31% 35% -11.7 32% 39% -17.8
02.06.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 1-0 52% 60% -12.5 28% 30% -8.2 20% 22% -7.7
02.06.24 Tombense FC vs Ferroviaria 0-0 42% 48% -11.7 31% 34% -11.4 27% 31% -10.9
03.06.24 ABC vs Floresta EC 1-0 49% 57% -13.8 28% 30% -7.6 23% 24% -6.8
04.06.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 3-1 35% 40% -11.3 31% 35% -11.4 34% 38% -10.8
04.06.24 Volta Redonda vs CS Alagoano 2-1 51% 58% -12.5 28% 31% -9.2 20% 22% -7.9
08.06.24 Figueirense vs ABC 1-1 47% 53% -12.4 30% 34% -11.1 23% 25% -8.0
09.06.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Volta Redonda 3-2 55% 65% -15.4 26% 28% -5.7 18% 19% -2.9
09.06.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-0 54% 64% -15.2 28% 30% -8.2 18% 18% -0.1
09.06.24 Ferroviaria vs AA Aparecidense 0-0 54% 64% -14.5 27% 29% -6.9 18% 18% -0.2
10.06.24 Nautico vs Caxias do Sul 2-2 47% 53% -12.2 29% 32% -9.5 24% 26% -9.4
11.06.24 Floresta EC vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-0 37% 40% -7.0 31% 36% -11.8 31% 36% -13.9
11.06.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Tombense FC 1-0 42% 48% -11.8 29% 32% -9.1 29% 32% -11.1
13.06.24 Sampaio Correa vs Caxias do Sul 2-1 40% 45% -11.8 31% 35% -11.4 29% 32% -9.9
15.06.24 CS Alagoano vs Botafogo FC PB 1-1 28% 29% -2.9 31% 35% -11.7 41% 49% -15.4
16.06.24 Clube Do Remo vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 1-0 40% 44% -9.8 30% 33% -10.3 30% 35% -13.8
16.06.24 Figueirense vs AD Confianca Aracaju 2-0 52% 59% -12.4 28% 31% -8.8 20% 22% -8.3
17.06.24 Caxias do Sul vs Ferroviaria 0-0 38% 41% -8.0 32% 36% -12.7 31% 36% -14.0
18.06.24 ABC vs Volta Redonda 0-1 39% 44% -12.2 30% 34% -10.8 31% 34% -10.9
18.06.24 Nautico vs Floresta EC 0-1 56% 66% -14.4 26% 28% -6.0 18% 18% -3.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 525 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ferroviaria 1849.54
2 Maringa FC 1829.42
3 Paysandu SC 1806.67
4 Botafogo FC PB 1787.51
5 Inter de Limeira 1768.55
6 Santa Cruz 1749.66
7 Brusque SC 1748.81
8 Floresta EC 1708.65

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ferroviaria 1752.07
2 Maringa FC 1750.57
3 Inter de Limeira 1690.90
4 Botafogo FC PB 1688.50
5 Santa Cruz 1686.31
6 Paysandu SC 1681.56
7 Brusque SC 1674.61
8 Floresta EC 1581.09