ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1409
Avg Goals 2.24
Avg Home 1.35
Avg Away 0.89
Home Win % 46.0%
Draw % 30.0%
Away Win % 24.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1409
Avg Brier Score 0.6006
Pick Accuracy 50.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6004
Market Brier 0.6014
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 5
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 80.0% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 1409 matches had at least one · staked 5.00, profit -5.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 4 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.2% 12.7% 55
10–20% 16.2% 12.3% 422
20–30% 26.3% 23.4% 1434
30–40% 33.1% 35.0% 1247
40–50% 44.5% 46.2% 584
50–60% 54.4% 57.0% 302
60–70% 64.1% 74.8% 135
70–80% 74.6% 71.4% 35
80–90% 82.2% 88.9% 9
90–100% 91.5% 75.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Brasiliense FC 0-0 45% 50% -10.4 30% 33% -9.7 25% 29% -14.7
05.08.23 Ceilandia EC vs Vitoria FC 3-0 57% 65% -12.2 26% 27% -5.1 18% 20% -11.4
05.08.23 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Princesa do Solimoes 3-0 67% 76% -11.6 21% 22% -4.3 12% 13% -11.9
05.08.23 Portuguesa RJ vs CEOV Operario 4-0 60% 69% -14.1 25% 25% -1.9 16% 17% -5.0
06.08.23 Anapolis FC vs Democrata GV 3-1 49% 56% -13.3 29% 32% -8.9 22% 24% -10.2
06.08.23 Atletico Cearense vs Aguia Maraba 3-0 41% 47% -12.8 32% 36% -11.0 28% 31% -11.6
06.08.23 CA Patrocinense vs Brasil de Pelotas 2-1 47% 53% -11.6 31% 34% -10.2 22% 25% -10.0
06.08.23 Nacional AM vs Parnahyba SC 3-0 62% 69% -11.1 24% 26% -7.7 14% 16% -12.8
06.08.23 Nacional de Patos vs ASA Arapiraca 3-1 47% 53% -12.0 30% 33% -9.3 23% 26% -10.5
06.08.23 Retro FC Brasil vs Pacajus EC 2-1 53% 60% -11.6 28% 30% -8.5 20% 23% -13.5
06.08.23 Sousa EC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 2-1 53% 61% -12.7 27% 29% -5.7 20% 23% -11.3
06.08.23 Tuna Luso vs Maranhao 0-1 44% 49% -10.3 30% 32% -7.8 27% 31% -13.8
12.08.23 Atletico Cearense vs Sousa EC 1-2 44% 51% -13.8 31% 34% -8.9 26% 28% -8.0
12.08.23 CA Patrocinense vs Portuguesa RJ 0-0 39% 48% -18.2 31% 34% -8.9 30% 31% -3.5
13.08.23 Caxias do Sul vs Ceilandia EC 0-0 48% 55% -12.6 30% 32% -7.9 22% 24% -8.5
13.08.23 Maranhao vs Retro FC Brasil 0-0 39% 42% -7.0 31% 34% -10.4 30% 36% -17.9
13.08.23 Nacional de Patos vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 0-0 33% 38% -15.1 32% 36% -10.5 35% 38% -8.1
15.08.23 Bahia de Feira vs Nacional AM 2-0 43% 50% -14.1 31% 33% -8.1 26% 29% -7.5
19.08.23 Ceilandia EC vs Caxias do Sul 0-0 40% 45% -10.9 32% 36% -10.2 27% 31% -10.8
19.08.23 Nacional AM vs Bahia de Feira 3-2 46% 52% -11.6 31% 34% -10.4 23% 26% -11.3
19.08.23 Retro FC Brasil vs Maranhao 2-2 58% 67% -12.9 24% 25% -2.8 18% 20% -11.8
20.08.23 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Nacional de Patos 3-1 62% 70% -12.3 24% 25% -4.6 14% 16% -10.0
20.08.23 Portuguesa RJ vs CA Patrocinense 3-1 55% 63% -13.4 28% 30% -8.5 17% 19% -8.4
20.08.23 Sousa EC vs Atletico Cearense 2-1 51% 58% -13.1 29% 31% -7.8 21% 23% -9.0
26.08.23 Ferroviaria vs Sousa EC 1-0 48% 55% -12.2 30% 33% -9.9 22% 24% -10.9
27.08.23 Caxias do Sul vs Portuguesa RJ 1-1 43% 49% -11.6 32% 36% -11.1 25% 27% -9.2
27.08.23 Maranhao vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-1 33% 37% -12.0 32% 36% -10.3 35% 40% -11.6
02.09.23 Portuguesa RJ vs Caxias do Sul 0-1 46% 55% -15.9 31% 34% -9.3 23% 23% -0.9
03.09.23 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Maranhao 1-1 55% 62% -11.5 26% 28% -6.9 19% 22% -15.3
03.09.23 Sousa EC vs Ferroviaria 1-1 44% 50% -12.5 32% 36% -10.9 24% 27% -9.5
07.09.23 Caxias do Sul vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-1 52% 60% -13.6 29% 31% -8.2 19% 21% -7.5
10.09.23 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Caxias do Sul 1-0 45% 52% -13.8 31% 34% -9.3 24% 26% -6.0
14.09.23 Ferroviaria vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 0-0 43% 49% -12.4 32% 36% -11.0 25% 29% -10.8
16.09.23 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Ferroviaria 2-1 46% 52% -11.0 31% 34% -10.2 23% 26% -10.7
04.05.24 AE Altos vs Moto Clube 1-2 51% 58% -12.2 28% 31% -7.8 21% 23% -11.0
04.05.24 ASA Arapiraca vs Petrolina Social FC 1-0 52% 58% -10.4 29% 32% -10.3 19% 22% -13.3
04.05.24 EC Agua Santa vs Maringa FC 2-1 42% 47% -10.4 31% 34% -9.7 27% 31% -13.1
04.05.24 EC Jacuipense vs CS Sergipe 1-1 36% 39% -9.1 31% 34% -9.2 34% 40% -16.1
04.05.24 Nova Iguacu vs Serra FC 4-0 57% 63% -9.2 27% 30% -11.9 16% 19% -16.8
04.05.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 3-0 31% 34% -11.0 30% 32% -7.1 39% 45% -13.4
04.05.24 Real Noroeste vs Portuguesa RJ 1-1 30% 31% -2.7 29% 31% -6.3 40% 50% -19.4
04.05.24 Sao Raimundo RR vs Manauara EC AM 0-1 31% 35% -11.5 29% 31% -6.0 40% 45% -12.9
04.05.24 Tocantinopolis vs Cameta EC 1-0 50% 56% -10.3 28% 31% -8.1 22% 26% -14.6
05.05.24 America-RN vs Atletico Cearense 3-0 72% 79% -9.3 19% 21% -8.3 9% 11% -15.7
05.05.24 Anapolis FC vs Mixto MT 1-1 54% 60% -10.5 27% 29% -8.0 19% 22% -14.3
05.05.24 AO de Itabaiana vs CS Esportivo 3-1 41% 48% -13.0 31% 33% -8.3 28% 31% -10.4
05.05.24 CRAC Catalano vs Brasiliense FC 1-0 27% 29% -6.3 31% 33% -8.3 43% 51% -15.5
05.05.24 FC Cascavel vs Cianorte FC 1-2 45% 49% -8.6 29% 31% -7.9 27% 32% -17.5
05.05.24 Manaus FC vs SC Humaita 1-0 77% 89% -14.3 16% 13% 17.7 8% 7% 9.2
05.05.24 Porto Velho FC vs Trem AP 2-1 50% 59% -14.3 28% 29% -5.9 22% 24% -10.1
05.05.24 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Maracana EC 1-2 43% 49% -12.1 30% 33% -8.7 27% 30% -11.9
05.05.24 Retro FC Brasil vs SD Juazeirense 1-0 57% 65% -12.2 27% 29% -8.3 16% 18% -9.8
05.05.24 Treze FC vs Sousa EC 2-0 43% 50% -13.2 29% 31% -6.7 27% 31% -12.1
05.05.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Capital FC TO 0-0 61% 66% -7.9 24% 27% -11.4 15% 19% -21.0
07.05.24 Aguia Maraba vs Fluminense EC 1-1 55% 62% -10.8 26% 29% -7.5 18% 21% -13.9
11.05.24 AD Iguatu vs Atletico Cearense 1-0 67% 77% -12.4 21% 22% -3.5 11% 12% -7.8
11.05.24 Aguia Maraba vs Cameta EC 1-1 57% 63% -10.5 26% 29% -8.2 17% 20% -14.2
11.05.24 CS Sergipe vs Retro FC Brasil 1-3 34% 36% -5.2 31% 33% -8.4 36% 43% -18.1
11.05.24 EC Jacuipense vs SD Juazeirense 2-1 40% 45% -12.1 31% 33% -8.2 29% 33% -11.7
11.05.24 Inter de Limeira vs EC Agua Santa 1-0 41% 44% -7.8 31% 34% -10.0 29% 34% -17.3
11.05.24 Ipora EC vs CRAC Catalano 1-1 35% 38% -7.2 30% 33% -8.5 34% 42% -17.2
11.05.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Nova Iguacu 1-0 45% 49% -8.4 30% 33% -9.9 25% 30% -16.5
11.05.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs CA Patrocinense 4-1 59% 69% -15.6 26% 28% -5.1 15% 15% 1.5
11.05.24 Princesa do Solimoes vs Manaus FC 0-1 34% 38% -8.9 31% 34% -9.5 34% 41% -15.7
11.05.24 Real Noroeste vs Serra FC 0-0 55% 62% -10.6 26% 29% -7.8 18% 22% -15.1
11.05.24 River AC vs AE Altos 1-1 44% 50% -12.5 30% 32% -7.9 27% 30% -12.3
11.05.24 Santa Cruz RN vs America-RN 3-2 25% 28% -8.4 30% 32% -7.4 45% 52% -13.8
11.05.24 Sao Raimundo RR vs Trem AP 1-2 56% 65% -12.9 25% 27% -4.6 18% 21% -11.9
11.05.24 SC Humaita vs Rio Branco AC 1-2 41% 47% -12.2 30% 32% -7.3 29% 33% -12.3
12.05.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs FC Cascavel 3-0 43% 49% -12.0 29% 31% -6.0 28% 31% -11.3
12.05.24 CS Esportivo vs ASA Arapiraca 1-1 32% 34% -5.8 31% 33% -8.3 38% 45% -17.5
12.05.24 Fluminense EC vs Tocantinopolis 1-0 42% 48% -12.0 32% 35% -9.5 27% 29% -9.6
12.05.24 Manauara EC AM vs Porto Velho FC 3-1 49% 56% -11.9 28% 30% -7.0 23% 26% -13.1
12.05.24 Maracana EC vs Treze FC 0-4 38% 43% -13.0 30% 33% -8.6 32% 36% -12.8
12.05.24 Mixto MT vs Uniao Rondonopolis 1-1 33% 35% -6.6 31% 34% -8.6 36% 43% -16.1
12.05.24 Moto Clube vs Maranhao 2-1 24% 25% -6.0 29% 30% -5.9 48% 57% -16.0
12.05.24 Real Brasilia FC vs Brasiliense FC 1-2 19% 20% -6.4 27% 29% -5.7 54% 64% -14.7
12.05.24 Sousa EC vs Potiguar de Mossoro 1-0 50% 55% -9.2 28% 31% -9.2 22% 26% -16.4
18.05.24 ASA Arapiraca vs EC Jacuipense 1-0 53% 60% -11.3 28% 31% -8.7 18% 21% -11.2
18.05.24 Atletico Cearense vs Maracana EC 1-0 22% 24% -5.8 28% 30% -6.2 49% 58% -15.9
18.05.24 CS Sergipe vs Petrolina Social FC 0-1 54% 56% -3.6 28% 32% -13.7 19% 24% -21.8
18.05.24 EC Santo André vs EC Agua Santa 1-1 35% 38% -7.6 31% 34% -8.8 34% 41% -16.2
18.05.24 Ipatinga FC vs Real Noroeste 2-0 40% 42% -6.2 31% 34% -9.7 30% 36% -18.0
18.05.24 Manauara EC AM vs Princesa do Solimoes 3-1 48% 53% -10.5 29% 32% -8.9 23% 27% -13.7
18.05.24 Maranhao vs Aguia Maraba 4-0 58% 66% -12.5 26% 29% -7.3 16% 17% -8.5
18.05.24 Nova Iguacu vs Audax Rio 2-0 71% 79% -9.8 20% 22% -8.8 9% 11% -15.2
18.05.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Itabuna EC 1-1 67% 74% -8.9 22% 24% -9.3 11% 14% -17.3
18.05.24 Santa Cruz RN vs Sousa EC 2-0 41% 48% -14.0 29% 30% -5.3 30% 34% -12.0
18.05.24 SD Juazeirense vs CS Esportivo 0-2 48% 53% -8.0 30% 33% -11.3 22% 27% -17.4
19.05.24 America-RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 2-0 68% 76% -11.5 22% 23% -5.3 11% 12% -10.0
19.05.24 Brasiliense FC vs Mixto MT 1-1 54% 60% -8.8 27% 30% -10.6 19% 23% -18.0
19.05.24 CRAC Catalano vs Anapolis FC 1-2 38% 43% -11.7 32% 36% -10.3 30% 33% -11.2
19.05.24 Fluminense EC vs River AC 2-0 23% 23% -1.1 28% 29% -4.8 49% 60% -18.4
19.05.24 Retro FC Brasil vs AO de Itabaiana 1-2 61% 68% -9.9 25% 29% -10.9 13% 15% -13.6
19.05.24 Rio Branco AC vs Sao Raimundo RR 1-1 44% 50% -11.2 30% 33% -9.4 25% 29% -13.7
19.05.24 Tocantinopolis vs AE Altos 3-1 36% 42% -12.6 32% 36% -10.7 31% 34% -9.8
19.05.24 Treze FC vs AD Iguatu 3-0 50% 58% -14.1 28% 29% -5.3 22% 24% -8.9
19.05.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Real Brasilia FC 1-0 66% 73% -9.2 22% 24% -9.2 12% 15% -18.4
21.05.24 Trem AP vs SC Humaita 2-1 61% 73% -16.2 25% 26% -1.9 14% 12% 9.2
22.05.24 FC Cascavel vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 0-0 41% 45% -10.1 30% 32% -7.6 29% 34% -14.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 1409 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

96 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Portuguesa Desportos 1906.41
2 CS Alagoano 1875.07
3 America-RN 1867.10
4 ABC 1829.82
5 SE do Gama 1828.98
6 Capital CF 1821.96
7 ASA Arapiraca 1804.22
8 Manauara EC AM 1796.76
9 Uberlandia EC 1792.42
10 Portuguesa RJ 1788.41
11 Nacional AM 1772.43
12 Brasiliense FC 1766.93
13 EC Agua Santa 1766.49
14 XV de Piracicaba 1763.40
15 Luverdense EC 1757.45
16 Marcilio Dias 1751.78
17 Marica FC 1750.02
18 Central SC Caruaru 1743.37
19 Cianorte FC 1741.81
20 Treze FC 1737.64
21 Tombense FC 1736.14
22 Santa Catarina Clube SC 1735.94
23 Vitoria FC 1735.51
24 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1734.95
25 Noroeste Bauru 1730.21
26 Brasil de Pelotas 1730.02
27 Joinville EC 1728.23
28 Rio Branco ES 1720.81
29 EC Sao Luiz 1717.45
30 Nova Iguacu 1715.40
31 Madureira 1715.24
32 Betim Futebol 1712.62
33 Goiatuba EC 1711.47
34 EC Sao Jose 1708.03
35 Sampaio Correa RJ 1707.53
36 Aguia Maraba 1704.14
37 Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1704.01
38 Sousa EC 1701.82
39 Mixto MT 1701.26
40 CS Sergipe 1700.36
41 Velo Clube 1690.42
42 Democrata GV 1690.30
43 Pouso Alegre FC 1689.27
44 Retro FC Brasil 1689.13
45 Sampaio Correa 1687.73
46 AE Altos 1685.66
47 FC Cascavel 1684.53
48 Araguaina FR 1680.40
49 Maracana EC 1674.06
50 SD Juazeirense 1668.79
51 Independente FSJ 1667.03
52 AA Maguary 1666.82
53 AA Aparecidense 1666.62
54 CRAC Catalano 1665.06
55 Porto Velho FC 1661.17
56 Ceilandia EC 1657.34
57 Azuriz FC 1656.16
58 Blumenau EC SC 1649.09
59 Manaus FC 1648.55
60 AD Iguatu 1640.68
61 Guapore RO 1627.40
62 Primavera AC 1622.75
63 Sao Raimundo RR 1621.50
64 Lagarto FC 1621.47
65 SD Imperatriz 1617.47
66 Monte Roraima RR 1611.07
67 Abecat Ouvidorense GO 1602.32
68 EC Jacuipense 1601.07
69 Moto Clube 1583.44
70 Trem AP 1583.00
71 Piaui EC 1580.48
72 Operario FC MS 1580.27
73 Tuna Luso 1576.44
74 CEOV Operario 1575.47
75 Real Noroeste 1574.58
76 Fluminense EC 1565.56
77 CF Atletas do Tirol CE 1563.66
78 Ivinhema FC 1563.27
79 Tocantinopolis 1548.09
80 Porto Sport Club BA 1547.01
81 America RJ 1543.90
82 Inhumas EC 1528.49
83 Uniao Rondonopolis 1526.61
84 CS Esportivo 1500.26
85 Independencia FC AC 1496.24
86 Guarany de Bage 1495.16
87 IAPE 1487.79
88 Parnahyba SC 1478.68
89 Decisao PE 1473.09
90 Oratorio 1462.10
91 Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1394.81
92 Atletico Cearense 1382.46
93 Clube Laguna SAF RN 1368.28
94 Galvez EC 1343.59
95 Atletico Alagoinhas 1224.47
96 SC Humaita 1158.01

Away Ratings

96 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 America-RN 1810.31
2 Portuguesa Desportos 1756.72
3 CS Alagoano 1752.37
4 CS Esportivo 1751.03
5 SE do Gama 1737.35
6 ABC 1732.25
7 Portuguesa RJ 1727.17
8 ASA Arapiraca 1713.90
9 Noroeste Bauru 1693.74
10 Sampaio Correa RJ 1691.60
11 Manauara EC AM 1686.83
12 Uberlandia EC 1686.46
13 Nova Iguacu 1680.54
14 Marcilio Dias 1678.97
15 Goiatuba EC 1672.18
16 Tombense FC 1662.38
17 Vitoria FC 1661.09
18 Brasiliense FC 1661.08
19 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1652.87
20 Nacional AM 1652.81
21 Capital CF 1652.13
22 Blumenau EC SC 1649.52
23 EC Agua Santa 1646.31
24 Rio Branco ES 1639.83
25 XV de Piracicaba 1638.51
26 Velo Clube 1638.47
27 Cianorte FC 1637.47
28 CS Sergipe 1635.35
29 Treze FC 1632.20
30 Democrata GV 1631.47
31 Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1631.29
32 Santa Catarina Clube SC 1629.63
33 America RJ 1627.45
34 EC Sao Jose 1626.81
35 Manaus FC 1625.21
36 AD Iguatu 1620.75
37 Mixto MT 1620.06
38 FC Cascavel 1618.53
39 Joinville EC 1609.54
40 Luverdense EC 1606.65
41 Madureira 1600.67
42 Marica FC 1599.82
43 Brasil de Pelotas 1592.01
44 Sampaio Correa 1588.40
45 AA Aparecidense 1583.96
46 AA Maguary 1579.07
47 Central SC Caruaru 1574.27
48 Retro FC Brasil 1570.92
49 Pouso Alegre FC 1569.33
50 Ceilandia EC 1566.74
51 Porto Velho FC 1564.88
52 Maracana EC 1563.35
53 SD Juazeirense 1560.60
54 EC Sao Luiz 1559.54
55 CRAC Catalano 1557.90
56 Betim Futebol 1556.56
57 Abecat Ouvidorense GO 1552.32
58 Sousa EC 1548.42
59 Operario FC MS 1543.13
60 Guapore RO 1542.02
61 Aguia Maraba 1537.54
62 Monte Roraima RR 1533.91
63 Uniao Rondonopolis 1527.32
64 Araguaina FR 1517.89
65 EC Jacuipense 1516.12
66 Independente FSJ 1515.37
67 AE Altos 1514.58
68 Lagarto FC 1504.43
69 Sao Raimundo RR 1504.05
70 Piaui EC 1502.94
71 Tuna Luso 1500.14
72 Real Noroeste 1499.21
73 Guarany de Bage 1497.41
74 Parnahyba SC 1494.56
75 Primavera AC 1491.16
76 SD Imperatriz 1486.19
77 IAPE 1486.08
78 CF Atletas do Tirol CE 1472.75
79 Moto Clube 1465.19
80 Atletico Alagoinhas 1458.81
81 CEOV Operario 1450.90
82 Tocantinopolis 1450.06
83 Azuriz FC 1449.47
84 Trem AP 1446.74
85 Inhumas EC 1437.77
86 Fluminense EC 1436.26
87 Porto Sport Club BA 1423.28
88 Ivinhema FC 1417.64
89 Galvez EC 1394.40
90 Independencia FC AC 1381.29
91 Oratorio 1370.17
92 Decisao PE 1357.66
93 Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1341.58
94 Atletico Cearense 1338.29
95 Clube Laguna SAF RN 1337.88
96 SC Humaita 1174.34