ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 40
Avg Goals 3.10
Avg Home 1.85
Avg Away 1.25
Home Win % 52.5%
Draw % 20.0%
Away Win % 27.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 40
Avg Brier Score 0.5627
Pick Accuracy 65.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5935
Market Brier 0.5551
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 8
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 5 of 40 matches had at least one · staked 8.00, profit -8.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.2% 0.0% 2
10–20% 16.7% 14.3% 14
20–30% 26.0% 21.4% 56
30–40% 34.4% 38.5% 13
40–50% 45.5% 52.9% 17
50–60% 55.0% 66.7% 12
60–70% 62.9% 33.3% 3
70–80% 72.6% 100.0% 2
80–90% 81.6% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
21.01.24 Nautico FC MS vs Costa Rica EC MS 1-3 19% 18% 3.8 25% 26% -3.2 56% 68% -17.2
26.01.24 AA Portuguesa MS vs Nautico FC MS 2-0 53% 58% -8.2 25% 27% -8.1 22% 28% -19.2
03.02.24 Aquidauanense FC vs Ivinhema FC 2-0 41% 48% -14.3 29% 31% -8.4 31% 33% -8.3
04.02.24 Dourados AC vs Novoperario FC 2-1 70% 83% -15.6 18% 16% 12.6 12% 11% 11.1
04.02.24 Operario FC MS vs Costa Rica EC MS 1-0 37% 45% -17.6 30% 33% -10.6 33% 34% -3.4
10.02.24 AA Portuguesa MS vs Operario FC MS 1-1 24% 22% 12.1 26% 27% -3.7 50% 63% -21.6
10.02.24 Ivinhema FC vs Dourados AC 1-2 32% 37% -12.3 29% 32% -9.3 38% 43% -10.1
22.02.24 Novoperario FC vs Corumbaense FC 1-1 43% 50% -13.1 28% 30% -8.8 29% 33% -13.3
01.03.24 Nautico FC MS vs AA Portuguesa MS 3-4 18% 12% 43.4 22% 21% 6.7 60% 77% -22.5
02.03.24 Novoperario FC vs Dourados AC 0-0 20% 21% -5.0 26% 27% -5.7 55% 64% -14.4
03.03.24 Ivinhema FC vs Aquidauanense FC 3-2 38% 42% -8.0 29% 31% -8.7 33% 39% -15.5
09.03.24 Dourados AC vs Ivinhema FC 1-0 55% 61% -9.5 25% 27% -8.3 20% 24% -16.5
23.03.24 Aquidauanense FC vs AA Portuguesa MS 0-1 48% 53% -10.3 28% 31% -10.3 24% 28% -13.6
24.03.24 Dourados AC vs Costa Rica EC MS 1-1 50% 56% -12.1 28% 31% -9.9 22% 24% -9.0
24.03.24 Operario FC MS vs Ivinhema FC 0-1 65% 74% -12.6 22% 23% -4.8 14% 15% -8.1
26.01.25 Operario FC MS vs Ivinhema FC 0-4 62% 70% -11.5 24% 26% -8.0 15% 16% -9.2
29.01.25 Dourados AC vs Operario FC MS 1-0 49% 55% -10.3 28% 31% -10.1 23% 27% -13.5
05.02.25 Aquidauanense FC vs Costa Rica EC MS 1-4 35% 41% -13.4 29% 32% -9.8 36% 40% -11.2
06.02.25 Operario FC MS vs Corumbaense FC 2-1 44% 49% -10.5 29% 33% -11.7 27% 31% -13.8
07.02.25 FC Pantanal SAF MS vs CE Naviraiense CE 3-0 54% 63% -14.3 26% 28% -6.7 20% 21% -5.7
15.02.25 Dourados AC vs CE Naviraiense CE 2-0 62% 72% -13.8 24% 25% -5.7 14% 15% -2.5
15.02.25 Operario FC MS vs Costa Rica EC MS 1-0 44% 51% -13.3 30% 33% -10.7 26% 28% -7.1
16.02.25 FC Pantanal SAF MS vs Aquidauanense FC 3-2 75% 88% -15.4 16% 14% 18.2 9% 7% 28.5
16.02.25 Ivinhema FC vs Corumbaense FC 6-1 47% 56% -17.3 28% 30% -7.7 25% 26% -1.2
23.02.25 CE Naviraiense CE vs Ivinhema FC 0-2 27% 28% -1.6 27% 29% -5.8 46% 56% -18.6
02.03.25 Dourados AC vs Aquidauanense FC 5-1 82% 94% -13.5 13% 10% 28.3 6% 4% 44.8
02.03.25 Ivinhema FC vs Costa Rica EC MS 2-3 48% 57% -15.8 28% 30% -8.0 24% 25% -3.8
02.03.25 Operario FC MS vs FC Pantanal SAF MS 2-2 40% 47% -14.0 29% 32% -9.3 31% 33% -7.9
09.03.25 Operario FC MS vs Costa Rica EC MS 3-1 41% 47% -11.8 31% 36% -12.4 28% 30% -8.6
22.03.25 FC Pantanal SAF MS vs Operario FC MS 1-2 42% 47% -9.4 29% 32% -9.9 29% 33% -13.6
06.04.25 Ivinhema FC vs Operario FC MS 0-1 50% 56% -11.8 28% 31% -9.5 22% 24% -8.0
18.01.26 Operario FC MS vs FC Pantanal SAF MS 3-0 36% 42% -12.8 29% 32% -9.4 34% 38% -10.5
29.01.26 Operario FC MS vs Clube de Regatas Aquidauana MS 3-0 60% 71% -16.7 24% 25% -3.2 16% 15% 5.8
01.02.26 FC Pantanal SAF MS vs Costa Rica EC MS 2-1 44% 52% -14.9 29% 31% -8.2 27% 29% -4.8
05.02.26 FC Pantanal SAF MS vs Corumbaense FC 1-1 55% 66% -16.2 25% 26% -4.8 19% 20% -2.6
12.02.26 Operario FC MS vs Costa Rica EC MS 0-0 51% 61% -16.7 29% 31% -8.5 20% 19% 6.8
15.02.26 Dourados AC vs Bataguassu MS 7-2 48% 53% -9.6 29% 32% -11.4 24% 28% -14.2
01.03.26 Dourados AC vs Clube de Regatas Aquidauana MS 3-3 53% 60% -11.4 27% 29% -9.1 21% 23% -11.2
19.03.26 Operario FC MS vs Corumbaense FC 2-1 53% 62% -14.6 26% 28% -5.7 20% 21% -3.0
03.04.26 Operario FC MS vs Bataguassu MS 2-1 55% 65% -15.7 25% 26% -4.9 20% 21% -4.7

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Naviraiense 1749.95
2 Costa Rica EC MS 1712.47
3 FC Pantanal SAF MS 1647.53
4 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana MS 1600.00
5 Coxim Atletico Clube 1600.00
6 Bataguassu MS 1600.00
7 Dourados AC 1586.65
8 Aquidauanense FC 1580.70
9 Operario FC MS 1580.27
10 SER Chapadao MS 1546.75
11 Novoperario FC 1452.35
12 AA Portuguesa MS 1443.14
13 Corumbaense FC 1433.89
14 CE Naviraiense CE 1411.62
15 Nautico FC MS 1293.09
16 Comercial MS 1242.75

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Dourados AC 1644.67
2 Naviraiense 1576.54
3 Operario FC MS 1543.13
4 Bataguassu MS 1541.98
5 Nautico FC MS 1511.35
6 FC Pantanal SAF MS 1498.92
7 AA Portuguesa MS 1484.94
8 CE Naviraiense CE 1449.91
9 Corumbaense FC 1441.86
10 Costa Rica EC MS 1430.02
11 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana MS 1422.17
12 SER Chapadao MS 1382.84
13 Novoperario FC 1339.91
14 Comercial MS 1307.75
15 Coxim Atletico Clube 1212.97
16 Aquidauanense FC 1206.83