ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1025
Avg Goals 2.36
Avg Home 1.32
Avg Away 1.04
Home Win % 44.8%
Draw % 23.8%
Away Win % 31.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 848
Avg Brier Score 0.5650
Pick Accuracy 55.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5661
Market Brier 0.5641
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 65
Value Bet Hit Rate 4.6%
ROI (flat stake) -54.2%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 67.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 57 of 848 matches had at least one · staked 65.00, profit -35.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 11 9.1% 11.00 -4.25 -38.6%
draw 10 0.0% 10.00 -10.00 -100.0%
away 44 4.5% 44.00 -21.00 -47.7%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.9% 5.3% 75
10–20% 15.8% 12.0% 400
20–30% 26.0% 26.2% 1016
30–40% 33.9% 35.8% 324
40–50% 44.3% 41.2% 267
50–60% 54.6% 55.4% 222
60–70% 64.4% 69.1% 149
70–80% 74.3% 87.7% 73
80–90% 82.6% 77.8% 18
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.07.23 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Slavia Sofia 0-1 26% 29% -11.4 29% 33% -11.8 45% 48% -6.4
17.07.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa 1-0 51% 58% -11.3 26% 28% -6.5 23% 24% -4.5
21.07.23 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Pirin Blagoewgrad 3-0 67% 75% -11.0 21% 22% -4.3 12% 12% 4.3
21.07.23 CSKA Sofia vs Levski Krumovgrad 1-0 73% 81% -10.3 18% 18% -3.1 9% 9% 3.8
22.07.23 Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia 1-3 29% 34% -14.4 29% 32% -10.6 42% 43% -3.1
22.07.23 Ludogorets Razgrad vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 5-0 81% 90% -10.1 12% 11% 9.9 7% 6% 8.3
23.07.23 Cherno More Varna vs PFC Hebar 1-0 61% 69% -11.8 23% 25% -6.0 15% 15% 2.9
23.07.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-4 31% 33% -8.1 31% 34% -11.5 39% 43% -8.7
24.07.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs FK Arda Kardzhali 1-0 29% 31% -7.0 30% 33% -10.0 41% 44% -7.9
24.07.23 Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia 2-0 26% 29% -9.9 28% 31% -9.9 46% 51% -8.7
28.07.23 Levski Krumovgrad vs Cherno More Varna 1-3 25% 28% -10.2 28% 31% -9.6 47% 51% -7.9
29.07.23 PFC Hebar vs Beroe Stara Zagora 1-0 41% 45% -10.9 30% 33% -11.1 30% 32% -7.5
29.07.23 Pirin Blagoewgrad vs Botev Plovdiv 0-0 25% 24% 3.1 27% 29% -6.8 48% 56% -14.9
30.07.23 Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 6-0 66% 75% -11.0 20% 21% -3.5 13% 13% -0.7
31.07.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa 4-0 64% 73% -12.1 22% 23% -3.7 14% 12% 8.8
04.08.23 Botev Plovdiv vs FK Arda Kardzhali 0-2 43% 49% -12.8 28% 31% -8.5 29% 31% -4.9
04.08.23 Cherno More Varna vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 2-1 67% 76% -12.2 20% 21% -2.0 13% 12% 6.8
05.08.23 Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets Razgrad 0-5 11% 12% -8.5 17% 17% -2.8 72% 79% -8.1
05.08.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs Pirin Blagoewgrad 2-0 56% 65% -13.6 25% 27% -6.2 19% 19% 0.9
06.08.23 CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 1-1 68% 76% -11.5 21% 22% -3.9 12% 11% 9.8
06.08.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia 2-1 28% 31% -10.5 29% 32% -10.1 43% 47% -6.5
07.08.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs Levski Krumovgrad 2-0 35% 38% -6.4 30% 34% -10.9 34% 38% -10.4
07.08.23 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs PFC Hebar 1-1 66% 74% -10.3 21% 23% -6.5 13% 13% -0.9
11.08.23 FK Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1-0 57% 67% -14.1 24% 24% -2.5 19% 18% 4.3
11.08.23 Pirin Blagoewgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 20% 20% -1.2 26% 28% -7.0 54% 62% -12.4
12.08.23 PFC Hebar vs Botev Plovdiv 1-0 31% 33% -5.9 29% 32% -9.5 39% 44% -11.3
12.08.23 Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 1-5 30% 33% -10.7 30% 33% -10.9 41% 43% -6.8
13.08.23 Levski Sofia vs Botev Vratsa 1-0 76% 85% -11.4 16% 15% 5.3 9% 8% 12.7
13.08.23 Ludogorets Razgrad vs CSKA Sofia 3-0 52% 60% -12.9 27% 29% -7.2 22% 22% -0.3
14.08.23 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Beroe Stara Zagora 2-2 42% 48% -11.3 29% 32% -9.8 29% 30% -5.5
14.08.23 Levski Krumovgrad vs CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-0 21% 22% -3.9 26% 28% -6.9 53% 60% -11.6
18.08.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs FK Arda Kardzhali 1-0 39% 44% -11.5 29% 32% -9.5 31% 33% -5.5
18.08.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs PFC Hebar 0-1 42% 48% -11.0 29% 32% -9.8 29% 30% -5.8
19.08.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs Slavia Sofia 3-0 30% 32% -7.6 30% 33% -10.5 40% 44% -9.2
19.08.23 Botev Vratsa vs CSKA Sofia 0-2 12% 12% -1.9 21% 22% -5.2 67% 75% -10.1
20.08.23 Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Krumovgrad 1-2 56% 64% -12.6 25% 27% -5.8 19% 19% 0.9
20.08.23 Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0 28% 31% -11.6 28% 31% -9.1 44% 48% -6.8
21.08.23 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1-0 72% 81% -10.9 18% 18% -0.2 10% 9% 9.8
25.08.23 PFC Hebar vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-4 31% 32% -5.1 30% 33% -10.4 40% 44% -11.1
25.08.23 Pirin Blagoewgrad vs Botev Vratsa 0-1 38% 43% -10.9 29% 32% -9.4 33% 35% -6.3
26.08.23 CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 1-1 45% 50% -9.6 29% 32% -10.3 26% 28% -6.8
26.08.23 Levski Krumovgrad vs Lokomotiv Sofia 2-0 43% 49% -11.9 29% 31% -8.4 28% 29% -3.3
27.08.23 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Botev Plovdiv 1-2 30% 33% -10.1 28% 31% -9.0 42% 45% -8.5
27.08.23 Ludogorets Razgrad vs Beroe Stara Zagora 5-0 79% 87% -9.6 14% 13% 5.5 8% 7% 4.3
28.08.23 Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia 0-2 25% 27% -7.3 29% 32% -10.3 46% 51% -8.9
01.09.23 Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia 3-1 53% 61% -13.8 26% 27% -5.2 21% 21% 1.9
01.09.23 Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna 0-1 17% 18% -5.3 25% 27% -7.8 58% 65% -9.8
01.09.23 Pirin Blagoewgrad vs FK Arda Kardzhali 0-2 19% 20% -5.6 25% 28% -8.2 56% 62% -10.4
02.09.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs CSKA Sofia 0-3 17% 17% 0.7 24% 25% -5.0 59% 68% -12.6
02.09.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1-3 45% 51% -11.5 28% 31% -8.5 27% 29% -4.9
03.09.23 Levski Sofia vs PFC Hebar 1-0 68% 76% -10.8 20% 21% -3.9 12% 11% 4.8
03.09.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Krumovgrad 4-0 55% 63% -13.2 25% 27% -5.9 20% 20% -0.3
14.09.23 Levski Sofia vs Pirin Blagoewgrad 2-0 81% 88% -8.5 13% 13% 1.4 6% 5% 10.4
15.09.23 Cherno More Varna vs Beroe Stara Zagora 2-0 67% 76% -11.2 20% 21% -3.1 12% 12% 4.5
15.09.23 FK Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa 4-0 64% 74% -13.0 21% 22% -1.2 14% 13% 9.0
16.09.23 Ludogorets Razgrad vs Botev Plovdiv 2-2 70% 81% -12.6 18% 17% 6.7 12% 11% 11.5
16.09.23 Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 43% 48% -9.8 29% 31% -8.5 28% 30% -6.1
17.09.23 CSKA Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-0 45% 52% -12.2 29% 32% -10.2 26% 26% -3.0
17.09.23 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 24% 24% -1.8 27% 29% -7.5 49% 56% -13.1
18.09.23 Levski Krumovgrad vs Levski Sofia 2-2 15% 15% -0.4 24% 26% -6.8 61% 68% -10.7
22.09.23 Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia 1-2 25% 27% -6.5 28% 31% -9.3 47% 52% -9.8
22.09.23 Botev Vratsa vs Beroe Stara Zagora 1-0 34% 37% -8.8 30% 33% -10.5 36% 40% -9.0
22.09.23 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 1-1 39% 43% -9.0 30% 33% -10.3 31% 34% -7.4
23.09.23 FK Arda Kardzhali vs PFC Hebar 3-1 60% 69% -13.7 24% 25% -4.3 16% 15% 9.2
23.09.23 Levski Sofia vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1-0 76% 85% -10.1 16% 16% -0.4 8% 7% 10.2
23.09.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia 2-0 56% 65% -12.5 25% 27% -6.0 18% 18% 1.8
24.09.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad 1-3 12% 12% 2.1 20% 20% -1.3 68% 77% -11.8
26.09.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs CSKA 1948 Sofia 0-0 18% 18% 0.5 25% 27% -6.2 56% 64% -11.5
26.09.23 Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv 1-0 55% 62% -11.4 26% 28% -7.4 19% 19% -0.7
27.09.23 Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 65% 74% -11.5 21% 21% -1.3 14% 14% 0.6
27.09.23 PFC Hebar vs Botev Vratsa 1-1 53% 60% -12.8 27% 29% -8.1 20% 20% 2.2
27.09.23 Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia 0-2 18% 19% -5.5 26% 29% -9.6 56% 62% -10.1
28.09.23 CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 2-0 75% 84% -10.7 16% 16% 2.1 9% 8% 12.1
28.09.23 Levski Krumovgrad vs FK Arda Kardzhali 1-3 21% 22% -4.2 28% 30% -9.2 51% 57% -10.4
30.09.23 Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe Stara Zagora 4-1 55% 62% -11.3 26% 28% -7.5 19% 19% -0.9
30.09.23 Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-2 18% 19% -5.8 25% 27% -7.3 57% 63% -9.4
01.10.23 FK Arda Kardzhali vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 3-0 68% 78% -12.5 20% 20% -0.7 12% 11% 7.9
01.10.23 Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad 0-1 37% 42% -10.7 29% 32% -9.2 34% 36% -6.2
01.10.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 0-0 18% 18% -1.2 25% 26% -6.2 57% 65% -12.2
02.10.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia 0-2 26% 27% -5.7 29% 32% -10.0 45% 51% -10.0
02.10.23 Pirin Blagoewgrad vs Slavia Sofia 1-1 33% 37% -12.2 30% 34% -11.1 37% 39% -4.8
06.10.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs Lokomotiv Sofia 0-1 46% 52% -11.7 28% 31% -8.4 26% 27% -3.5
06.10.23 Levski Krumovgrad vs Botev Vratsa 1-0 50% 58% -13.3 27% 29% -7.7 23% 23% 0.1
07.10.23 Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-2 55% 62% -11.1 26% 28% -7.2 19% 19% -0.3
07.10.23 CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia 1-1 40% 43% -7.1 30% 34% -11.8 29% 32% -9.4
07.10.23 Slavia Sofia vs FK Arda Kardzhali 1-0 24% 26% -8.4 28% 30% -9.1 48% 53% -9.1
08.10.23 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv 1-0 51% 57% -11.4 27% 29% -8.1 22% 23% -3.1
08.10.23 Ludogorets Razgrad vs Pirin Blagoewgrad 4-0 87% 95% -8.5 9% 8% 12.5 4% 3% 20.6
20.10.23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Beroe Stara Zagora 1-2 56% 62% -10.1 24% 26% -7.1 19% 21% -7.0
21.10.23 Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv 3-5 28% 32% -12.6 29% 32% -10.5 43% 45% -5.5
21.10.23 Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia 0-0 19% 19% -0.2 26% 29% -7.8 55% 62% -11.5
21.10.23 Pirin Blagoewgrad vs CSKA Sofia 1-2 10% 10% 0.8 18% 19% -3.3 72% 79% -9.9
22.10.23 FK Arda Kardzhali vs Ludogorets Razgrad 0-0 22% 22% -3.0 25% 27% -5.2 53% 61% -12.3
22.10.23 Levski Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 1-0 50% 58% -13.1 28% 31% -9.4 21% 21% 3.1
22.10.23 PFC Hebar vs Slavia Sofia 1-0 40% 44% -9.6 30% 33% -10.5 30% 32% -7.1
25.10.23 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Botev Vratsa 2-1 40% 45% -12.1 29% 31% -8.6 32% 33% -5.5
26.10.23 Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia 6-0 57% 65% -12.1 24% 26% -5.0 19% 19% -0.7
26.10.23 Cherno More Varna vs Pirin Blagoewgrad 2-1 73% 81% -9.9 18% 18% -2.3 10% 9% 5.0
26.10.23 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 55% 63% -12.9 25% 27% -6.8 20% 20% -1.5
27.10.23 Beroe Stara Zagora vs Levski Sofia 2-1 16% 16% -2.6 23% 25% -6.3 61% 68% -10.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 848 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 CSKA Sofia 2101.53
2 Levski Sofia 2092.09
3 Ludogorets Razgrad 2022.63
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 1928.05
5 Botev Plovdiv 1876.93
6 FK Arda Kardzhali 1858.55
7 Cherno More Varna 1814.11
8 Spartak Varna 1779.37
9 Lokomotiv Sofia 1776.99
10 Botev Vratsa 1775.05
11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1766.46
12 Slavia Sofia 1744.83
13 Beroe Stara Zagora 1743.86
14 FK Septemvri Sofia 1713.84
15 Dobrudzha Dobrich 1708.10
16 Dunav Ruse 1703.13
17 Yantra Gabrovo 1592.25
18 PFC Montana 1921 1472.94

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Levski Sofia 2049.43
2 Ludogorets Razgrad 2019.07
3 CSKA Sofia 1960.87
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 1894.95
5 FK Arda Kardzhali 1860.50
6 Botev Plovdiv 1854.35
7 Cherno More Varna 1804.55
8 Lokomotiv Sofia 1786.31
9 Slavia Sofia 1715.20
10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1712.74
11 Botev Vratsa 1705.82
12 Beroe Stara Zagora 1689.67
13 PFC Montana 1921 1685.45
14 Dunav Ruse 1677.10
15 Spartak Varna 1666.90
16 FK Septemvri Sofia 1658.42
17 Dobrudzha Dobrich 1576.11
18 Yantra Gabrovo 1567.37