ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1288
Avg Goals 2.29
Avg Home 1.36
Avg Away 0.93
Home Win % 47.0%
Draw % 28.0%
Away Win % 25.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1288
Avg Brier Score 0.5992
Pick Accuracy 50.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6037
Market Brier 0.5992
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 75.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 1288 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 2.6% 39
10–20% 15.9% 15.3% 450
20–30% 26.2% 24.7% 1425
30–40% 33.2% 33.6% 946
40–50% 44.8% 45.6% 491
50–60% 54.7% 58.0% 300
60–70% 64.9% 70.8% 168
70–80% 74.0% 67.4% 43
80–90% 81.3% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
03.08.23 Independiente Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin 1-0 47% 54% -12.2 28% 29% -6.1 25% 26% -5.4
05.08.23 Atletico Huila vs Alianza Petrolera 0-0 41% 43% -5.6 29% 32% -8.8 30% 34% -12.9
05.08.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs Once Caldas 2-1 49% 53% -8.7 29% 32% -10.4 22% 25% -10.0
05.08.23 Union Magdalena vs Atletico Junior 0-0 31% 32% -3.5 30% 33% -9.0 39% 44% -13.2
06.08.23 Deportivo Pereira vs Chico FC 1-1 46% 51% -10.9 30% 33% -9.9 24% 26% -5.2
06.08.23 Independiente Medellin vs Envigado 1-0 60% 61% -3.0 25% 29% -14.1 16% 20% -20.4
06.08.23 Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali 1-1 39% 43% -8.3 30% 33% -9.6 31% 34% -10.6
07.08.23 Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional Medellin 1-1 41% 47% -11.2 30% 32% -8.3 29% 31% -6.7
07.08.23 Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Santa Fe 2-0 32% 36% -10.8 31% 35% -10.5 37% 39% -6.3
08.08.23 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Jaguares de Cordoba 3-0 54% 61% -10.8 27% 29% -6.5 19% 20% -3.7
08.08.23 Millonarios vs Deportes Tolima 1-0 55% 59% -7.3 27% 29% -9.2 19% 21% -10.9
11.08.23 Alianza Petrolera vs Envigado 3-1 55% 58% -5.6 27% 30% -11.4 19% 22% -14.5
12.08.23 Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Huila 1-0 59% 62% -4.8 25% 29% -12.5 16% 19% -16.8
12.08.23 Independiente Santa Fe vs Internacional de Bogota 1-1 48% 51% -6.1 28% 31% -9.5 24% 27% -12.9
12.08.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs Deportivo Cali 1-0 56% 62% -9.2 26% 28% -8.0 18% 20% -9.8
13.08.23 America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin 1-3 47% 51% -6.2 28% 30% -8.2 25% 29% -13.2
13.08.23 Atletico Junior vs Deportivo Pasto 0-0 55% 60% -7.8 27% 29% -9.6 19% 21% -11.1
13.08.23 Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira 1-0 42% 48% -12.1 30% 32% -8.4 29% 30% -5.7
14.08.23 Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Atletico Bucaramanga 2-1 53% 60% -10.7 27% 29% -6.9 20% 22% -6.8
14.08.23 Jaguares de Cordoba vs Millonarios 2-0 25% 29% -15.4 30% 34% -12.1 45% 47% -3.6
15.08.23 Chico FC vs Union Magdalena 0-0 57% 61% -6.0 26% 29% -10.0 17% 20% -13.3
19.08.23 Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares de Cordoba 3-0 58% 62% -7.0 25% 28% -8.8 17% 19% -11.3
20.08.23 Deportivo Pasto vs Chico FC 1-1 46% 52% -10.8 30% 34% -10.4 23% 24% -4.0
20.08.23 Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Junior 0-0 49% 53% -8.1 29% 32% -9.4 22% 23% -6.5
20.08.23 Union Magdalena vs Independiente Santa Fe 2-2 33% 38% -11.7 30% 33% -9.3 36% 39% -7.1
21.08.23 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Rionegro Aguilas 1-1 35% 38% -9.6 30% 33% -9.2 35% 38% -9.2
21.08.23 Atletico Huila vs Atletico Nacional Medellin 0-1 27% 31% -10.9 30% 33% -10.0 43% 47% -8.5
21.08.23 Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera 2-1 52% 56% -8.6 26% 27% -5.1 23% 26% -11.5
22.08.23 Millonarios vs Once Caldas 2-1 56% 59% -4.3 27% 31% -12.9 17% 20% -15.4
23.08.23 Alianza Petrolera vs Internacional de Bogota 1-0 39% 44% -11.9 30% 33% -9.1 31% 32% -5.3
23.08.23 Jaguares de Cordoba vs Union Magdalena 0-1 38% 42% -7.9 31% 34% -9.8 31% 34% -10.0
24.08.23 Atletico Junior vs America de Cali 4-3 38% 42% -10.9 30% 33% -9.4 32% 35% -8.3
24.08.23 Chico FC vs Atletico Huila 1-1 56% 59% -4.1 27% 31% -13.1 17% 20% -15.7
24.08.23 Independiente Santa Fe vs Envigado 2-0 62% 65% -4.5 23% 26% -12.8 15% 18% -19.6
25.08.23 Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto 2-0 53% 58% -9.3 27% 29% -7.0 21% 23% -8.9
25.08.23 Deportivo Cali vs Millonarios 0-0 41% 47% -12.7 31% 34% -9.4 29% 29% -2.6
26.08.23 Envigado vs Atletico Junior 1-2 29% 32% -9.9 31% 34% -10.4 40% 43% -7.9
26.08.23 Once Caldas vs Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 49% 53% -7.6 28% 30% -8.7 23% 26% -11.9
26.08.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs Independiente Medellin 1-1 42% 43% -0.7 29% 32% -9.8 29% 34% -16.9
27.08.23 Internacional de Bogota vs Deportes Tolima 0-0 39% 43% -11.3 31% 34% -10.1 30% 32% -5.7
27.08.23 Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional Medellin 1-0 47% 51% -7.3 29% 32% -9.8 24% 27% -10.9
27.08.23 Union Magdalena vs Alianza Petrolera 2-0 41% 44% -8.4 30% 33% -9.5 29% 32% -9.8
28.08.23 America de Cali vs Independiente Santa Fe 2-0 49% 53% -6.7 27% 29% -8.1 24% 28% -14.1
28.08.23 Atletico Huila vs Jaguares de Cordoba 0-0 50% 54% -7.3 29% 33% -12.1 21% 23% -10.9
29.08.23 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Cali 1-0 40% 44% -10.4 30% 33% -9.2 30% 32% -7.2
29.08.23 Independiente Medellin vs Chico FC 1-1 60% 65% -8.8 24% 26% -7.0 16% 17% -8.3
30.08.23 Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas 1-0 41% 44% -7.9 30% 34% -10.4 29% 32% -11.0
31.08.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs Atletico Nacional Medellin 2-0 43% 45% -6.5 29% 31% -8.3 29% 33% -13.5
31.08.23 Union Magdalena vs America de Cali 0-0 33% 36% -10.4 30% 32% -8.3 38% 42% -9.2
02.09.23 Chico FC vs Envigado 1-0 52% 55% -5.8 28% 32% -11.9 20% 23% -12.8
02.09.23 Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Bucaramanga 0-0 54% 58% -5.9 26% 29% -10.0 20% 24% -16.4
02.09.23 Jaguares de Cordoba vs Independiente Medellin 1-1 29% 34% -14.0 30% 33% -9.8 41% 43% -4.2
03.09.23 Alianza Petrolera vs America de Cali 2-3 34% 38% -11.1 30% 32% -8.2 37% 40% -8.0
03.09.23 Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira 2-0 48% 52% -6.5 28% 31% -9.9 23% 27% -13.5
03.09.23 Independiente Santa Fe vs Atletico Junior 1-0 48% 52% -7.8 28% 31% -9.0 24% 27% -10.8
04.09.23 Deportivo Cali vs Deportivo Pasto 4-0 46% 51% -8.2 29% 31% -8.4 25% 28% -10.0
04.09.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs Millonarios 2-0 37% 39% -4.8 32% 36% -11.3 31% 35% -11.7
05.09.23 Once Caldas vs Atletico Huila 1-2 60% 64% -5.8 25% 28% -11.5 15% 18% -15.3
05.09.23 Union Magdalena vs Internacional de Bogota 1-0 39% 43% -8.3 31% 35% -10.6 30% 32% -8.2
06.09.23 Alianza Petrolera vs Chico FC 1-1 47% 52% -10.0 29% 32% -9.0 24% 26% -6.3
06.09.23 Envigado vs America de Cali 0-0 27% 29% -8.8 30% 32% -8.3 44% 48% -8.4
07.09.23 Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pereira 2-3 48% 51% -4.7 30% 33% -11.5 22% 26% -12.8
07.09.23 Deportivo Cali vs Independiente Santa Fe 2-2 41% 45% -8.7 30% 33% -9.6 28% 31% -9.2
09.09.23 Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Cordoba 1-0 61% 66% -7.2 24% 27% -10.1 15% 17% -12.8
09.09.23 Internacional de Bogota vs Chico FC 0-0 50% 53% -7.4 30% 33% -11.4 21% 23% -9.2
10.09.23 Atletico Junior vs Union Magdalena 7-1 51% 55% -6.9 29% 32% -11.2 20% 23% -11.2
10.09.23 Deportivo Pereira vs Once Caldas 1-2 47% 51% -8.0 29% 32% -10.0 24% 27% -10.9
10.09.23 Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional Medellin 1-0 44% 47% -6.5 30% 33% -10.4 27% 30% -12.2
11.09.23 America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 3-0 49% 53% -7.2 28% 31% -9.3 23% 27% -12.7
11.09.23 Envigado vs Rionegro Aguilas 2-2 30% 32% -6.0 31% 34% -10.1 39% 43% -11.0
11.09.23 Millonarios vs Independiente Santa Fe 2-4 46% 49% -6.1 30% 33% -11.4 25% 29% -13.6
12.09.23 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Alianza Petrolera 0-1 47% 50% -5.3 28% 31% -9.7 24% 29% -14.5
12.09.23 Atletico Huila vs Deportes Tolima 3-0 29% 33% -12.0 31% 35% -10.9 39% 42% -5.4
13.09.23 Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Pasto 2-1 56% 61% -8.2 26% 29% -9.9 17% 19% -9.7
14.09.23 Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Internacional de Bogota 5-0 51% 54% -5.6 28% 31% -10.1 21% 24% -12.2
14.09.23 Chico FC vs Independiente Santa Fe 1-1 34% 37% -9.1 31% 34% -9.6 36% 39% -9.0
14.09.23 Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin 1-1 41% 43% -5.8 29% 32% -8.8 30% 34% -12.7
14.09.23 Jaguares de Cordoba vs America de Cali 0-1 26% 29% -12.6 29% 32% -9.1 45% 48% -5.6
15.09.23 Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Junior 1-5 32% 35% -8.1 31% 34% -9.4 37% 41% -9.2
15.09.23 Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Huila 1-0 53% 56% -5.1 27% 30% -10.7 20% 24% -15.1
15.09.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs Union Magdalena 2-1 60% 65% -7.4 24% 27% -8.8 16% 18% -12.3
16.09.23 Millonarios vs Atletico Bucaramanga 3-0 65% 69% -7.1 23% 26% -11.2 13% 15% -14.1
16.09.23 Once Caldas vs Envigado 0-0 56% 59% -5.1 26% 29% -10.0 18% 22% -15.1
17.09.23 America de Cali vs Chico FC 5-0 56% 60% -6.4 26% 29% -10.3 18% 21% -14.6
17.09.23 Independiente Santa Fe vs Alianza Petrolera 0-1 62% 65% -4.7 23% 26% -11.5 14% 17% -17.1
18.09.23 Atletico Huila vs Rionegro Aguilas 1-1 45% 53% -13.8 29% 31% -7.3 26% 27% -3.5
18.09.23 Atletico Junior vs Atletico Nacional Medellin 1-1 47% 52% -8.4 29% 31% -8.7 24% 27% -9.9
18.09.23 Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima 1-2 37% 40% -8.6 31% 34% -9.3 33% 36% -8.4
18.09.23 Envigado vs Jaguares de Cordoba 1-0 48% 51% -5.7 29% 33% -11.6 23% 26% -13.0
18.09.23 Union Magdalena vs Once Caldas 1-1 38% 43% -11.0 31% 34% -9.4 31% 33% -5.7
19.09.23 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pereira 1-1 35% 40% -11.8 31% 34% -9.6 34% 36% -6.3
19.09.23 Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios 1-1 44% 49% -9.6 29% 32% -8.6 26% 29% -7.5
20.09.23 Chico FC vs Atletico Junior 2-1 37% 42% -11.2 31% 34% -9.5 32% 34% -6.0
20.09.23 Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Cali 1-1 50% 54% -8.2 28% 31% -9.0 22% 25% -10.5
21.09.23 Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe 3-0 47% 53% -9.9 28% 30% -7.7 25% 27% -9.1
21.09.23 Deportivo Pereira vs Union Magdalena 1-2 55% 60% -7.1 26% 29% -9.4 19% 22% -13.4
21.09.23 Rionegro Aguilas vs America de Cali 2-2 42% 47% -10.7 29% 31% -7.5 30% 32% -8.3
22.09.23 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto 0-2 44% 49% -9.8 29% 32% -9.2 27% 29% -9.2
22.09.23 Deportes Tolima vs Envigado 2-0 64% 67% -4.2 23% 26% -12.1 13% 16% -17.6
22.09.23 Jaguares de Cordoba vs Alianza Petrolera 0-0 38% 42% -8.5 31% 35% -10.6 31% 33% -8.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 1288 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

21 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Atletico Nacional Medellin 1938.99
2 Millonarios 1896.92
3 America de Cali 1882.04
4 Deportes Tolima 1838.91
5 Independiente Santa Fe 1828.94
6 Deportivo Cali 1815.31
7 Independiente Medellin 1814.62
8 Once Caldas 1808.71
9 Atletico Bucaramanga 1805.59
10 Atletico Junior 1778.47
11 CD Junior FC Barranquilla 1772.41
12 Rionegro Aguilas 1769.66
13 Internacional de Bogota 1735.50
14 Deportivo Pasto 1722.92
15 Fortaleza FC 1696.78
16 Chico FC 1685.16
17 Llaneros FC 1681.51
18 Alianza Petrolera 1668.45
19 Cucuta Deportivo 1666.53
20 Jaguares de Cordoba 1612.56
21 Deportivo Pereira 1572.96

Away Ratings

21 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Atletico Nacional Medellin 1829.70
2 America de Cali 1810.99
3 Millonarios 1791.35
4 Deportes Tolima 1758.77
5 Independiente Medellin 1756.37
6 Deportivo Cali 1750.65
7 Once Caldas 1729.66
8 Atletico Bucaramanga 1727.32
9 Independiente Santa Fe 1724.41
10 Atletico Junior 1705.25
11 Rionegro Aguilas 1675.91
12 CD Junior FC Barranquilla 1671.19
13 Fortaleza FC 1653.88
14 Llaneros FC 1636.68
15 Internacional de Bogota 1617.49
16 Alianza Petrolera 1577.68
17 Deportivo Pasto 1573.67
18 Cucuta Deportivo 1564.16
19 Deportivo Pereira 1511.46
20 Chico FC 1509.13
21 Jaguares de Cordoba 1495.84