ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 517
Avg Goals 2.54
Avg Home 1.44
Avg Away 1.10
Home Win % 44.5%
Draw % 26.3%
Away Win % 29.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 517
Avg Brier Score 0.5704
Pick Accuracy 53.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5718
Market Brier 0.5713
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) 162.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 5 of 517 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit 9.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 4 50.0% 4.00 11.75 293.8%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 8.5% 59
10–20% 15.6% 15.1% 252
20–30% 26.3% 25.9% 579
30–40% 33.9% 34.6% 228
40–50% 44.1% 40.8% 157
50–60% 55.1% 52.0% 123
60–70% 64.5% 74.1% 81
70–80% 74.1% 77.6% 58
80–90% 82.5% 85.7% 14
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
21.07.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 56% 60% -6.3 27% 29% -6.1 17% 19% -8.5
22.07.23 NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 6-1 63% 68% -7.4 24% 25% -5.0 13% 14% -7.0
22.07.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Rudeš 4-0 79% 83% -5.6 15% 15% -0.7 7% 7% -10.4
23.07.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Varazdin 1-1 44% 47% -5.6 28% 29% -4.4 28% 32% -13.3
23.07.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 1-1 44% 48% -6.6 29% 30% -5.2 27% 30% -11.6
28.07.23 NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 2-2 53% 58% -8.4 27% 28% -3.9 20% 22% -8.3
29.07.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 37% 38% -3.3 29% 30% -3.6 34% 38% -12.6
29.07.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs Dinamo Zagreb 0-3 14% 15% -8.1 24% 25% -4.2 62% 67% -7.0
30.07.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Rijeka 1-0 53% 58% -9.1 27% 27% -1.8 21% 22% -5.9
30.07.23 NK Rudeš vs NK Osijek 3-4 20% 21% -6.7 27% 28% -3.2 53% 58% -8.6
04.08.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin 3-3 47% 50% -5.7 27% 29% -4.2 25% 29% -13.4
05.08.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Velika Gorica 0-0 73% 77% -5.3 18% 19% -5.9 9% 11% -15.0
05.08.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs NK Rudeš 3-2 45% 49% -7.0 28% 29% -3.9 26% 29% -10.4
06.08.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 6-0 59% 63% -7.2 24% 25% -3.1 17% 19% -10.7
12.08.23 NK Varazdin vs NK Rudeš 2-0 55% 58% -5.6 25% 26% -2.9 21% 24% -13.8
13.08.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 3-0 80% 86% -7.0 13% 13% 4.5 6% 7% -8.2
13.08.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs NK Osijek 4-4 28% 29% -3.0 29% 29% -2.8 44% 50% -12.6
19.08.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 2-2 38% 42% -9.8 30% 31% -4.6 32% 34% -6.8
20.08.23 NK Osijek vs HNK Velika Gorica 1-0 52% 55% -5.0 26% 27% -3.5 22% 25% -13.0
20.08.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 61% 66% -8.5 23% 24% -1.5 16% 17% -8.2
20.08.23 NK Rudeš vs HNK Hajduk Split 0-2 12% 13% -5.0 21% 20% 3.1 67% 74% -8.7
25.08.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 2-2 57% 61% -7.0 25% 26% -2.9 18% 20% -9.8
26.08.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek 2-2 32% 34% -6.6 29% 29% -2.6 40% 44% -10.7
26.08.23 NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 20% 22% -6.4 26% 26% -0.3 54% 60% -10.2
27.08.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Rijeka 2-1 60% 64% -6.2 24% 25% -3.7 16% 18% -10.9
27.08.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs NK Rudeš 0-0 54% 58% -6.9 25% 26% -3.1 20% 23% -11.8
01.09.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 30% 33% -8.6 29% 29% -2.4 41% 44% -8.1
02.09.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 0-1 74% 79% -7.2 17% 17% -0.3 9% 10% -9.7
02.09.23 NK Rudeš vs HNK Velika Gorica 0-2 34% 38% -8.9 29% 30% -3.6 36% 40% -9.0
03.09.23 NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb 2-3 24% 25% -5.1 26% 26% 1.4 50% 56% -11.0
03.09.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin 2-2 63% 68% -7.1 22% 22% -1.1 15% 17% -10.9
15.09.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Rudeš 1-0 53% 56% -5.4 26% 27% -3.5 21% 24% -12.4
16.09.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 3-0 86% 91% -5.8 10% 10% 1.8 4% 5% -12.4
16.09.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Osijek 2-1 51% 56% -8.7 26% 26% -1.2 23% 25% -9.3
17.09.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 18% 19% -5.4 25% 26% -1.1 57% 62% -9.4
17.09.23 NK Varazdin vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 1-0 45% 49% -7.4 28% 29% -4.5 27% 30% -11.8
22.09.23 NK Osijek vs NK Varazdin 1-1 58% 62% -6.6 24% 24% -1.1 18% 21% -12.3
23.09.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 71% 76% -6.7 19% 19% -2.2 10% 11% -11.4
23.09.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs HNK Velika Gorica 0-1 38% 40% -5.2 30% 31% -4.7 32% 36% -11.1
24.09.23 NK Rudeš vs Dinamo Zagreb 1-5 8% 8% -5.0 16% 15% 5.6 76% 83% -8.2
24.09.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs NK Rijeka 0-1 21% 22% -5.1 26% 27% -1.0 53% 59% -10.0
30.09.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs NK Osijek 1-0 24% 25% -3.5 27% 27% -0.3 49% 56% -11.9
30.09.23 NK Varazdin vs HNK Velika Gorica 1-0 38% 42% -8.2 30% 31% -4.3 32% 34% -7.6
01.10.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 33% 35% -6.8 30% 31% -3.8 38% 42% -9.5
01.10.23 NK Rudeš vs NK Rijeka 1-2 14% 15% -7.8 22% 22% 1.0 64% 70% -8.7
02.10.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-4 38% 41% -7.0 30% 32% -5.5 32% 34% -8.6
06.10.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs NK Varazdin 3-2 34% 37% -7.5 30% 31% -4.0 36% 40% -9.5
07.10.23 NK Osijek vs NK Rudeš 3-0 69% 74% -5.6 19% 20% -3.0 11% 13% -13.1
07.10.23 NK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 39% 42% -8.4 29% 30% -3.4 32% 35% -8.0
08.10.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 3-0 79% 85% -7.2 14% 14% 3.3 6% 7% -6.5
08.10.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Velika Gorica 1-1 43% 43% -1.9 29% 30% -5.4 29% 34% -15.3
20.10.23 NK Rudeš vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 0-0 36% 37% -3.9 29% 30% -4.0 35% 41% -13.5
21.10.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 16% 16% -3.0 24% 24% 0.6 61% 67% -9.8
21.10.23 NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 37% 40% -8.7 30% 31% -4.0 34% 37% -8.3
22.10.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek 0-2 58% 62% -7.0 25% 26% -4.6 17% 19% -10.3
22.10.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs NK Rijeka 1-1 18% 19% -5.4 26% 26% -2.0 56% 62% -9.5
27.10.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Hajduk Split 0-1 17% 18% -7.1 25% 25% -1.2 58% 64% -8.3
28.10.23 NK Osijek vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 3-1 61% 68% -11.5 24% 26% -7.5 16% 18% -13.8
28.10.23 NK Rudeš vs NK Varazdin 0-0 31% 34% -11.0 28% 29% -3.2 41% 44% -8.0
29.10.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 70% 74% -6.0 19% 20% -3.0 11% 12% -12.5
29.10.23 NK Rijeka vs HNK Velika Gorica 1-0 64% 67% -4.3 23% 24% -7.3 14% 16% -15.1
03.11.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Rijeka 1-1 25% 26% -2.9 28% 29% -1.9 47% 53% -11.6
04.11.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Rudeš 1-0 80% 85% -5.5 14% 14% -2.1 6% 7% -11.1
04.11.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Osijek 3-0 36% 39% -7.1 30% 31% -4.3 34% 37% -9.1
05.11.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 2-0 43% 45% -4.8 30% 31% -5.3 27% 30% -10.5
05.11.23 NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 17% 19% -12.0 24% 24% -2.2 59% 63% -6.2
08.11.23 NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split 0-1 31% 34% -8.7 29% 30% -3.9 39% 43% -9.4
10.11.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Velika Gorica 0-0 32% 33% -5.3 30% 31% -4.1 38% 43% -9.6
11.11.23 NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 51% 56% -7.5 27% 28% -3.7 22% 24% -10.3
11.11.23 NK Rudeš vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 0-4 34% 37% -7.5 31% 32% -5.4 35% 38% -8.4
12.11.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin 3-1 69% 76% -8.5 20% 20% -0.5 11% 11% -5.8
12.11.23 NK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 40% 44% -10.5 29% 29% -2.6 32% 34% -6.9
24.11.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 1-3 53% 56% -5.0 27% 29% -7.0 20% 23% -12.6
25.11.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Osijek 2-1 66% 72% -8.0 21% 22% -1.4 12% 13% -6.9
25.11.23 NK Varazdin vs NK Rijeka 0-2 19% 21% -9.0 25% 25% -0.7 56% 61% -8.4
26.11.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Rudeš 3-0 64% 68% -7.2 22% 23% -2.7 14% 15% -9.5
26.11.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs HNK Hajduk Split 0-2 18% 20% -8.8 26% 27% -3.2 56% 61% -7.7
01.12.23 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs NK Varazdin 2-0 40% 43% -9.0 29% 29% -2.5 32% 34% -8.0
02.12.23 HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Velika Gorica 3-0 67% 72% -7.7 22% 22% -2.6 11% 12% -5.3
02.12.23 NK Osijek vs NK Rijeka 0-0 30% 32% -7.6 29% 30% -3.3 41% 44% -8.0
03.12.23 NK Rudeš vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 22% 23% -4.4 27% 28% -2.0 51% 57% -10.6
04.12.23 NK Slaven Koprivnica vs Dinamo Zagreb 0-2 11% 12% -6.5 21% 21% -0.5 68% 74% -7.9
08.12.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 20% 21% -3.7 27% 28% -2.1 53% 58% -9.6
09.12.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Rudeš 1-0 87% 91% -4.4 9% 9% 0.3 4% 5% -16.4
09.12.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 0-0 47% 50% -6.5 29% 30% -5.7 25% 28% -11.3
10.12.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 2-4 74% 79% -6.7 17% 17% -0.8 9% 10% -9.2
10.12.23 NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek 2-2 28% 30% -7.4 29% 29% -2.7 43% 48% -9.0
15.12.23 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Varazdin 1-3 40% 42% -4.6 30% 31% -5.4 30% 34% -12.4
16.12.23 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Istra 1961 Pula 3-0 47% 50% -5.2 28% 29% -5.3 25% 29% -13.4
16.12.23 NK Rijeka vs NK Rudeš 3-0 80% 85% -6.0 14% 14% -1.7 6% 7% -12.1
17.12.23 Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split 0-0 47% 51% -6.8 29% 30% -5.1 24% 27% -9.3
17.12.23 NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 4-1 59% 61% -4.5 25% 27% -7.4 16% 19% -14.2
23.01.24 Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 76% 81% -6.6 17% 17% -0.5 7% 8% -6.5
24.01.24 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Rijeka 2-3 19% 20% -6.0 26% 27% -2.7 55% 61% -9.4
26.01.24 NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Koprivnica 1-2 45% 47% -2.6 28% 29% -4.3 27% 31% -13.7
27.01.24 NK Istra 1961 Pula vs Dinamo Zagreb 0-1 14% 15% -8.6 23% 24% -2.9 63% 68% -7.5
27.01.24 NK Osijek vs NK Rudeš 2-0 74% 78% -5.6 18% 18% -3.6 9% 10% -12.4
28.01.24 HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Rijeka 1-2 48% 52% -7.1 29% 30% -5.0 23% 25% -7.6
28.01.24 HNK Velika Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 33% 34% -3.0 29% 30% -3.5 38% 43% -12.9
02.02.24 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin 0-0 53% 58% -8.4 26% 27% -2.8 21% 23% -8.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 517 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Dinamo Zagreb 2232.84
2 NK Rijeka 2085.13
3 HNK Hajduk Split 2055.50
4 NK Varazdin 1980.86
5 NK Osijek 1913.84
6 NK Istra 1961 Pula 1896.39
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1883.37
8 NK Slaven Koprivnica 1873.13
9 HNK Velika Gorica 1835.52
10 NK Rudeš 1757.15

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Dinamo Zagreb 2100.09
2 HNK Hajduk Split 2063.96
3 NK Rijeka 2023.14
4 NK Varazdin 1929.73
5 NK Osijek 1890.18
6 NK Istra 1961 Pula 1845.82
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1791.84
8 NK Slaven Koprivnica 1789.67
9 HNK Velika Gorica 1743.80
10 NK Rudeš 1661.23