ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 249
Avg Goals 2.61
Avg Home 1.41
Avg Away 1.21
Home Win % 40.6%
Draw % 21.7%
Away Win % 37.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 249
Avg Brier Score 0.5231
Pick Accuracy 57.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5344
Market Brier 0.5203
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 249 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 6.0% 50
10–20% 15.2% 12.5% 152
20–30% 25.0% 28.4% 250
30–40% 35.0% 27.4% 73
40–50% 45.2% 38.1% 63
50–60% 54.6% 54.0% 50
60–70% 65.2% 71.7% 46
70–80% 75.2% 79.2% 48
80–90% 82.5% 92.9% 14
90–100% 91.1% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
25.08.23 Kolding FC (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 4-0 43% 51% -15.8 26% 29% -9.3 31% 32% -4.2
26.08.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 2-0 35% 39% -9.7 27% 30% -11.4 38% 43% -13.2
26.08.23 Thisted FC (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-1 5% 7% -22.4 13% 16% -20.4 82% 87% -5.6
27.08.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 4-2 81% 88% -7.8 13% 15% -12.3 6% 7% -14.6
02.09.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 0-2 13% 15% -16.2 19% 21% -11.3 68% 75% -8.3
02.09.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-0 30% 38% -19.3 26% 30% -13.4 43% 45% -4.7
02.09.23 Kolding FC (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 1-0 56% 65% -14.1 23% 25% -7.4 21% 22% -4.7
03.09.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 3-0 71% 75% -5.2 18% 22% -18.6 11% 14% -22.7
09.09.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 2-1 34% 35% -3.0 26% 29% -11.0 40% 49% -18.4
09.09.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-1 15% 16% -7.3 21% 24% -9.8 64% 72% -11.5
09.09.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 0-1 62% 69% -10.5 22% 24% -10.8 16% 18% -11.5
16.09.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 1-0 60% 62% -4.0 23% 27% -16.4 17% 22% -21.6
16.09.23 HB Koge (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 5-0 68% 74% -8.5 20% 23% -12.6 12% 14% -13.4
16.09.23 Thisted FC (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 0-1 30% 31% -1.5 26% 29% -10.1 43% 52% -16.6
17.09.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 0-2 17% 20% -16.0 22% 25% -12.4 61% 67% -8.0
29.09.23 Kolding FC (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 1-1 55% 57% -4.1 24% 29% -15.2 21% 26% -20.3
30.09.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs HB Koge (W) 2-4 12% 15% -18.5 18% 21% -13.2 70% 76% -7.8
30.09.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 3-0 32% 37% -13.6 27% 31% -12.3 41% 45% -9.8
01.10.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 3-0 72% 79% -8.3 18% 20% -11.9 10% 12% -13.5
07.10.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 3-0 80% 85% -6.8 13% 16% -15.9 7% 9% -20.6
07.10.23 HB Koge (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-0 71% 80% -10.9 19% 21% -8.8 10% 10% 2.0
08.10.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 2-0 52% 58% -11.0 26% 29% -12.2 22% 24% -9.3
08.10.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 1-2 71% 77% -7.7 18% 21% -14.5 11% 14% -19.0
14.10.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 2-0 60% 67% -10.1 22% 24% -9.8 18% 20% -11.8
14.10.23 Kolding FC (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 2-0 24% 29% -17.6 25% 29% -14.0 51% 55% -6.9
15.10.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-1 7% 10% -23.7 13% 16% -17.4 80% 85% -6.2
15.10.23 Thisted FC (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 1-1 8% 10% -17.1 15% 17% -12.7 76% 83% -7.7
20.10.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 0-2 10% 13% -23.7 17% 21% -18.8 73% 78% -5.5
21.10.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 2-0 26% 29% -9.1 26% 29% -10.2 48% 55% -11.5
21.10.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-2 33% 41% -18.8 28% 32% -14.1 39% 40% -2.1
22.10.23 HB Koge (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 3-1 83% 88% -6.2 12% 14% -18.4 5% 7% -22.7
04.11.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs HB Koge (W) 2-0 28% 31% -9.5 26% 29% -9.7 46% 52% -11.4
04.11.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 2-0 69% 74% -6.4 19% 23% -15.9 12% 14% -19.0
05.11.23 Thisted FC (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 1-1 40% 43% -8.4 27% 31% -12.0 33% 38% -13.9
06.11.23 Kolding FC (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-0 27% 30% -9.6 27% 30% -11.5 46% 51% -10.7
11.11.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 0-3 23% 25% -9.8 25% 29% -11.2 52% 58% -10.4
11.11.23 HB Koge (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-0 53% 58% -9.1 25% 29% -13.6 22% 26% -14.2
11.11.23 Thisted FC (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-1 14% 15% -11.5 21% 23% -11.2 66% 73% -9.7
12.11.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 2-1 70% 74% -5.2 18% 22% -16.0 12% 15% -21.7
15.11.23 HB Koge (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 0-2 49% 53% -7.3 26% 30% -13.9 25% 29% -16.2
18.11.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 1-3 56% 61% -7.1 24% 29% -14.5 19% 23% -16.4
18.11.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 3-0 77% 82% -6.7 16% 19% -17.1 8% 10% -19.0
19.11.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 2-1 39% 45% -13.9 28% 31% -11.9 33% 36% -6.7
19.11.23 Kolding FC (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-2 19% 22% -14.8 23% 26% -11.3 58% 64% -8.4
23.11.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-3 12% 15% -16.3 19% 22% -13.2 68% 74% -7.8
24.11.23 Thisted FC (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 3-0 24% 29% -15.4 26% 30% -13.6 50% 53% -7.1
25.11.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 2-1 41% 47% -11.0 27% 31% -11.7 31% 35% -10.4
25.11.23 HB Koge (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 0-1 77% 83% -7.3 15% 17% -14.3 8% 10% -17.8
09.12.23 Aalborg BK (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 0-1 22% 24% -6.8 25% 28% -10.1 53% 60% -12.3
09.12.23 Kolding FC (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 0-1 20% 23% -12.8 25% 29% -13.0 55% 61% -8.7
10.12.23 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-0 30% 35% -14.4 28% 32% -13.7 42% 45% -7.3
10.12.23 Thisted FC (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 0-0 14% 18% -20.4 20% 24% -15.0 65% 69% -6.0
16.12.23 Aarhus GF (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 2-2 23% 27% -13.5 26% 29% -12.8 51% 56% -8.7
16.12.23 Bröndby IF (W) vs Thisted FC (W) 2-3 77% 82% -6.1 15% 18% -15.8 8% 10% -18.8
16.12.23 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 1-0 61% 67% -8.5 23% 26% -13.4 16% 18% -13.2
16.12.23 HB Koge (W) vs Aalborg BK (W) 1-0 84% 88% -5.0 12% 15% -22.3 4% 6% -24.7
17.03.24 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 2-2 35% 40% -11.4 27% 31% -12.2 37% 42% -10.9
17.03.24 HB Koge (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 3-1 70% 75% -6.5 18% 22% -15.3 12% 15% -20.1
17.03.24 Kolding FC (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 0-2 16% 17% -9.6 21% 24% -9.7 63% 70% -10.8
23.03.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 3-0 46% 51% -10.3 26% 29% -10.9 28% 31% -11.0
23.03.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs HB Koge (W) 1-0 29% 32% -9.1 28% 32% -12.9 43% 48% -10.6
24.03.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-0 46% 51% -9.0 26% 30% -12.8 28% 32% -14.4
04.05.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 3-5 29% 32% -11.6 27% 31% -11.9 44% 49% -9.0
04.05.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 3-0 77% 83% -6.9 16% 19% -16.1 7% 8% -15.0
05.05.24 HB Koge (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 0-1 44% 47% -5.2 28% 32% -14.0 28% 33% -15.6
11.05.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-1 23% 26% -11.2 26% 30% -12.9 50% 56% -9.6
11.05.24 HB Koge (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 2-0 37% 40% -6.7 29% 33% -13.8 34% 39% -13.5
12.05.24 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 1-0 68% 74% -7.9 21% 24% -15.0 12% 13% -13.2
25.05.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 1-0 49% 55% -9.6 27% 31% -13.8 24% 27% -11.3
25.05.24 Kolding FC (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-4 12% 15% -16.0 20% 24% -14.6 67% 72% -7.2
26.05.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 4-0 67% 74% -8.2 20% 24% -14.6 12% 14% -14.8
08.06.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs HB Koge (W) 3-4 18% 21% -12.0 22% 25% -10.2 59% 66% -10.6
08.06.24 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 1-2 29% 33% -14.3 26% 29% -11.6 45% 50% -9.1
09.06.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 2-0 78% 85% -8.4 14% 16% -10.9 7% 9% -14.0
15.06.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-1 42% 47% -8.8 26% 29% -10.4 31% 36% -12.6
15.06.24 HB Koge (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 1-0 55% 60% -8.8 24% 27% -11.9 21% 25% -15.1
15.06.24 Kolding FC (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 2-4 28% 33% -15.4 24% 27% -9.2 48% 53% -9.6
09.08.24 B 93 Copenhagen (W) vs HB Koge (W) 0-3 5% 5% 0.6 12% 13% -4.8 83% 91% -9.2
10.08.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs Odense BK (W) 0-2 57% 56% 0.8 22% 27% -17.8 21% 29% -27.1
10.08.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 4-0 79% 85% -7.2 14% 15% -12.2 7% 9% -17.2
11.08.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-3 50% 53% -5.5 26% 31% -14.9 24% 29% -17.5
16.08.24 Kolding FC (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 2-1 25% 25% 0.2 25% 27% -7.7 50% 60% -16.0
17.08.24 Odense BK (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 0-0 20% 27% -26.1 22% 26% -17.3 58% 59% -1.0
18.08.24 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs B 93 Copenhagen (W) 2-0 76% 83% -8.6 15% 17% -10.9 8% 10% -12.8
18.08.24 HB Koge (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-2 44% 43% 3.0 27% 32% -15.6 29% 37% -21.8
24.08.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-3 20% 22% -9.9 23% 25% -8.9 57% 65% -12.5
24.08.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Odense BK (W) 2-0 61% 62% -2.8 22% 27% -18.4 17% 23% -24.5
25.08.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs HB Koge (W) 1-0 34% 40% -15.9 27% 30% -11.9 40% 43% -6.8
25.08.24 Kolding FC (W) vs B 93 Copenhagen (W) 2-2 52% 61% -15.9 23% 24% -4.4 26% 27% -5.1
29.08.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 3-2 48% 56% -14.4 27% 30% -11.6 26% 27% -3.8
30.08.24 B 93 Copenhagen (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 0-1 28% 29% -6.0 26% 29% -10.6 46% 53% -13.9
31.08.24 HB Koge (W) vs Odense BK (W) 0-1 56% 53% 5.1 24% 31% -22.4 20% 28% -28.5
01.09.24 Fortuna Hjörring (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 4-1 81% 89% -9.8 13% 14% -4.2 6% 6% -0.8
13.09.24 B 93 Copenhagen (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1-4 6% 6% -2.0 15% 17% -10.7 79% 87% -8.9
14.09.24 Bröndby IF (W) vs Kolding FC (W) 0-0 75% 83% -9.5 16% 17% -5.3 9% 10% -7.8
14.09.24 HB Koge (W) vs Aarhus GF (W) 4-1 73% 76% -3.1 16% 21% -21.8 10% 14% -27.9
20.09.24 Kolding FC (W) vs HB Koge (W) 1-2 7% 9% -17.2 15% 17% -14.8 78% 83% -6.4
21.09.24 Aarhus GF (W) vs Bröndby IF (W) 2-3 20% 23% -11.4 22% 24% -7.9 57% 64% -10.4
21.09.24 Odense BK (W) vs B 93 Copenhagen (W) 2-2 81% 88% -7.2 12% 14% -10.8 6% 7% -15.6
22.09.24 FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs Fortuna Hjörring (W) 0-2 48% 53% -9.1 25% 29% -11.2 27% 31% -14.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 249 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 HB Koge (W) 1845.60
2 Bröndby IF (W) 1818.42
3 FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1750.74
4 FC Midtjylland (W) 1732.78
5 Fortuna Hjörring (W) 1723.80
6 FC Copenhagen (W) 1537.96
7 Kolding FC (W) 1500.34
8 Thisted FC (W) 1495.87
9 ASA Aarhus (W) 1451.97
10 Odense BK (W) 1349.77
11 Aarhus GF (W) 1337.66
12 Osterbro IF (W) 1132.12

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1873.23
2 HB Koge (W) 1798.71
3 Bröndby IF (W) 1729.49
4 Fortuna Hjörring (W) 1672.49
5 FC Midtjylland (W) 1503.99
6 FC Copenhagen (W) 1482.32
7 Kolding FC (W) 1457.95
8 ASA Aarhus (W) 1370.43
9 Aarhus GF (W) 1326.32
10 Odense BK (W) 1291.74
11 Osterbro IF (W) 1242.43
12 Thisted FC (W) 1107.23