ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 501
Avg Goals 2.87
Avg Home 1.48
Avg Away 1.39
Home Win % 40.1%
Draw % 25.0%
Away Win % 34.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 501
Avg Brier Score 0.6083
Pick Accuracy 51.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6126
Market Brier 0.6071
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 19
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 94.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 18 of 501 matches had at least one · staked 19.00, profit -19.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 18 0.0% 18.00 -18.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.0% 25.0% 4
10–20% 16.6% 17.6% 102
20–30% 25.5% 24.3% 691
30–40% 34.9% 30.7% 309
40–50% 44.2% 49.8% 215
50–60% 53.9% 58.5% 135
60–70% 64.5% 76.5% 34
70–80% 73.4% 58.3% 12
80–90% 83.7% 0.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
21.07.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs HB Köge 0-4 37% 43% -13.9 27% 30% -10.2 35% 37% -4.6
22.07.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs Aalborg BK 0-3 16% 17% -5.1 22% 23% -6.0 62% 68% -9.8
23.07.23 FC Fredericia vs Hobro IK 0-2 48% 55% -12.6 26% 28% -7.4 27% 27% -1.8
23.07.23 KIF Kolding vs AC Horsens 2-1 33% 36% -8.5 29% 32% -11.0 38% 41% -6.9
28.07.23 HB Köge vs Vendsyssel FF 3-1 35% 40% -12.7 23% 23% -1.4 42% 47% -9.0
28.07.23 Hobro IK vs Næstved BK 3-2 37% 42% -11.5 28% 31% -10.1 35% 37% -5.5
29.07.23 Aalborg BK vs AC Horsens 1-0 58% 65% -11.6 23% 24% -5.5 19% 19% 0.8
29.07.23 KIF Kolding vs Hillerod Fodbold 2-1 52% 60% -13.7 25% 27% -7.5 23% 23% 1.1
30.07.23 FC Helsingør vs B 93 Copenhagen 2-0 45% 54% -16.3 26% 28% -7.5 29% 29% 1.8
04.08.23 AC Horsens vs HB Köge 2-0 50% 58% -13.6 25% 26% -6.0 25% 25% 0.2
04.08.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs Hobro IK 0-1 31% 34% -9.7 27% 29% -9.1 43% 47% -8.3
05.08.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs KIF Kolding 1-1 28% 31% -9.4 26% 29% -8.6 46% 50% -8.8
06.08.23 Aalborg BK vs FC Fredericia 4-0 70% 81% -13.2 17% 17% 4.9 12% 11% 15.6
11.08.23 FC Fredericia vs Hillerod Fodbold 3-2 51% 59% -13.7 25% 27% -7.0 24% 24% 1.1
11.08.23 FC Helsingør vs Aalborg BK 1-1 17% 19% -10.4 22% 24% -8.2 61% 66% -7.8
11.08.23 HB Köge vs B 93 Copenhagen 1-7 48% 56% -15.2 25% 27% -6.4 27% 27% 0.3
13.08.23 Hobro IK vs Vendsyssel FF 0-1 36% 41% -10.9 27% 29% -9.0 37% 40% -7.8
13.08.23 Næstved BK vs KIF Kolding 1-2 28% 30% -7.2 26% 29% -8.6 46% 51% -10.8
18.08.23 Aalborg BK vs Næstved BK 1-1 72% 83% -12.3 16% 16% 2.9 11% 10% 10.9
18.08.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs FC Fredericia 0-5 36% 42% -14.3 26% 29% -8.3 38% 39% -4.1
18.08.23 KIF Kolding vs SönderjyskE 1-3 31% 34% -9.1 27% 29% -9.0 42% 47% -8.8
19.08.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs Vendsyssel FF 2-0 29% 32% -10.0 27% 29% -9.6 44% 49% -9.0
20.08.23 HB Köge vs Hobro IK 0-2 34% 38% -11.2 27% 29% -9.0 39% 42% -7.4
22.08.23 Næstved BK vs B 93 Copenhagen 0-1 41% 47% -11.8 26% 29% -7.8 33% 34% -5.3
23.08.23 FC Helsingør vs Hillerod Fodbold 1-6 51% 59% -13.6 25% 26% -6.1 24% 24% 0.3
23.08.23 SönderjyskE vs HB Köge 4-0 67% 79% -14.3 18% 17% 5.6 14% 12% 17.1
23.08.23 Vendsyssel FF vs KIF Kolding 2-1 35% 38% -9.5 27% 30% -9.4 38% 41% -7.5
24.08.23 Hobro IK vs Aalborg BK 1-2 18% 20% -8.1 24% 26% -9.5 58% 63% -8.7
26.08.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF 0-5 33% 38% -12.0 26% 29% -8.2 41% 43% -6.7
26.08.23 KIF Kolding vs FC Helsingør 4-0 49% 57% -13.8 25% 27% -6.9 26% 26% -0.2
27.08.23 Aalborg BK vs Hillerod Fodbold 3-0 70% 79% -11.6 18% 18% -1.7 12% 12% 3.0
27.08.23 HB Köge vs FC Fredericia 0-0 26% 29% -9.9 24% 26% -7.0 50% 55% -9.4
28.08.23 Hobro IK vs SönderjyskE 1-2 25% 27% -9.0 25% 27% -7.8 50% 56% -9.1
01.09.23 AC Horsens vs B 93 Copenhagen 0-0 51% 58% -13.6 25% 26% -6.3 25% 25% -0.7
01.09.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs SönderjyskE 2-2 22% 24% -9.7 24% 26% -8.4 54% 60% -8.6
03.09.23 Aalborg BK vs KIF Kolding 3-1 56% 64% -11.5 24% 25% -5.8 20% 20% 0.3
03.09.23 FC Helsingør vs Hobro IK 1-3 40% 47% -13.7 27% 29% -9.3 33% 35% -4.7
04.09.23 Næstved BK vs HB Köge 3-3 46% 53% -13.8 26% 28% -7.3 28% 29% -1.4
14.09.23 HB Köge vs KIF Kolding 0-1 25% 28% -9.6 25% 27% -7.3 50% 55% -8.7
15.09.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs B 93 Copenhagen 0-1 44% 51% -14.0 26% 29% -8.2 30% 30% -2.1
15.09.23 Hobro IK vs AC Horsens 0-1 37% 42% -11.7 28% 31% -10.1 35% 37% -5.3
15.09.23 SönderjyskE vs Aalborg BK 1-1 35% 40% -13.6 27% 29% -9.2 39% 41% -5.0
22.09.23 Aalborg BK vs HB Köge 2-0 73% 83% -11.5 16% 16% 2.0 11% 10% 10.5
22.09.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs Hobro IK 1-2 31% 35% -10.8 27% 29% -9.2 42% 45% -7.6
22.09.23 KIF Kolding vs FC Fredericia 1-2 39% 44% -12.4 26% 29% -7.7 35% 36% -4.6
24.09.23 Næstved BK vs Hillerod Fodbold 2-2 34% 38% -11.3 27% 29% -9.0 39% 42% -7.2
29.09.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs AC Horsens 0-0 32% 36% -11.1 28% 31% -10.6 40% 43% -7.6
29.09.23 Vendsyssel FF vs Aalborg BK 1-3 21% 23% -8.1 24% 26% -8.3 55% 61% -9.3
30.09.23 SönderjyskE vs B 93 Copenhagen 4-0 68% 78% -12.2 18% 18% 0.7 14% 13% 5.6
01.10.23 HB Köge vs FC Helsingør 1-0 35% 40% -12.9 26% 29% -8.4 39% 42% -6.5
01.10.23 Hobro IK vs KIF Kolding 2-3 33% 36% -8.1 28% 31% -10.4 39% 42% -8.6
06.10.23 AC Horsens vs Aalborg BK 1-4 25% 29% -11.1 26% 29% -9.6 49% 53% -7.4
06.10.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs Hillerod Fodbold 0-3 31% 34% -9.1 26% 29% -8.3 43% 48% -9.7
07.10.23 KIF Kolding vs HB Köge 3-1 60% 68% -12.3 23% 24% -5.4 18% 17% 2.6
08.10.23 Næstved BK vs Hobro IK 1-0 35% 39% -12.0 27% 29% -8.7 39% 41% -5.4
20.10.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs FC Fredericia 1-1 33% 38% -11.9 26% 29% -8.2 41% 43% -6.8
20.10.23 Hobro IK vs FC Helsingør 1-0 48% 56% -14.0 26% 29% -8.2 26% 26% 1.4
20.10.23 SönderjyskE vs KIF Kolding 4-0 48% 53% -11.0 26% 28% -8.1 27% 29% -6.1
22.10.23 Aalborg BK vs B 93 Copenhagen 2-1 76% 85% -11.6 15% 14% 7.5 10% 8% 15.6
22.10.23 HB Köge vs Næstved BK 3-2 35% 40% -12.1 26% 29% -7.8 38% 41% -5.7
27.10.23 AC Horsens vs Hillerod Fodbold 1-3 42% 48% -11.8 27% 29% -9.2 31% 33% -6.0
27.10.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs SönderjyskE 0-4 14% 14% -1.0 19% 19% -1.1 68% 76% -10.9
27.10.23 Hobro IK vs HB Köge 2-1 52% 60% -13.4 25% 27% -7.1 24% 24% -0.5
28.10.23 KIF Kolding vs Aalborg BK 0-1 26% 29% -9.5 26% 28% -8.0 49% 53% -7.7
03.11.23 HB Köge vs AC Horsens 1-4 27% 30% -11.6 26% 29% -10.2 47% 51% -7.3
03.11.23 SönderjyskE vs Hobro IK 1-0 62% 70% -12.0 22% 23% -5.1 17% 16% 3.5
04.11.23 Vendsyssel FF vs B 93 Copenhagen 1-0 56% 65% -14.1 23% 24% -4.8 21% 20% 3.3
05.11.23 Aalborg BK vs FC Helsingør 2-2 72% 81% -11.1 17% 17% -0.2 11% 10% 9.9
05.11.23 FC Fredericia vs KIF Kolding 1-0 38% 43% -11.4 27% 29% -9.1 36% 38% -7.6
06.11.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs Næstved BK 1-0 46% 53% -13.2 26% 29% -8.6 28% 29% -3.0
10.11.23 B 93 Copenhagen vs FC Helsingør 2-0 38% 43% -11.6 27% 29% -8.7 36% 38% -5.8
10.11.23 HB Köge vs SönderjyskE 1-4 16% 17% -7.2 21% 22% -5.2 63% 70% -9.5
12.11.23 KIF Kolding vs Vendsyssel FF 0-1 50% 58% -14.0 26% 28% -7.7 24% 24% 2.2
12.11.23 Næstved BK vs Aalborg BK 1-1 18% 20% -10.4 23% 26% -9.6 59% 64% -7.5
13.11.23 Hobro IK vs Hillerod Fodbold 0-0 38% 43% -12.1 28% 31% -10.0 34% 36% -4.5
23.11.23 FC Fredericia vs B 93 Copenhagen 0-4 61% 70% -13.3 21% 22% -3.3 18% 17% 2.8
25.11.23 Hillerod Fodbold vs KIF Kolding 1-3 34% 38% -11.7 29% 32% -11.4 37% 39% -4.5
26.11.23 Aalborg BK vs Hobro IK 1-2 60% 69% -13.0 22% 24% -6.0 17% 17% 3.1
26.11.23 Vendsyssel FF vs HB Köge 2-0 59% 69% -15.4 22% 23% -2.6 19% 17% 12.3
01.12.23 AC Horsens vs Hobro IK 0-1 39% 43% -11.4 29% 32% -11.1 33% 34% -3.3
02.12.23 SönderjyskE vs Hillerod Fodbold 0-2 57% 66% -12.8 23% 25% -6.6 19% 19% 1.1
03.12.23 HB Köge vs Aalborg BK 1-2 12% 12% -1.9 19% 20% -5.7 70% 77% -9.5
05.12.23 KIF Kolding vs B 93 Copenhagen 0-1 57% 66% -13.1 23% 25% -6.4 19% 19% 1.9
23.02.24 AC Horsens vs KIF Kolding 1-2 27% 29% -6.8 28% 31% -10.7 45% 49% -8.4
23.02.24 FC Helsingør vs HB Köge 0-1 44% 51% -12.4 26% 29% -7.9 29% 30% -2.9
23.02.24 Vendsyssel FF vs Hillerod Fodbold 4-4 39% 44% -12.1 28% 32% -11.7 32% 34% -4.3
24.02.24 Aalborg BK vs SönderjyskE 2-2 44% 50% -12.3 27% 30% -10.3 29% 30% -4.5
24.02.24 B 93 Copenhagen vs Næstved BK 0-0 35% 39% -10.7 27% 29% -8.6 38% 41% -6.7
25.02.24 Hobro IK vs FC Fredericia 0-2 36% 40% -10.6 28% 31% -10.3 36% 38% -5.8
01.03.24 FC Fredericia vs Aalborg BK 2-3 25% 29% -10.8 26% 29% -10.3 48% 52% -7.1
01.03.24 Hillerod Fodbold vs FC Helsingør 4-2 52% 60% -12.7 25% 27% -7.5 23% 23% -0.4
02.03.24 B 93 Copenhagen vs HB Köge 3-1 40% 45% -12.1 27% 29% -9.2 33% 36% -6.7
02.03.24 KIF Kolding vs Hobro IK 3-1 48% 54% -11.5 28% 31% -11.0 24% 24% -0.1
08.03.24 FC Helsingør vs KIF Kolding 1-1 24% 27% -10.1 26% 29% -10.5 49% 53% -7.7
08.03.24 HB Köge vs Hillerod Fodbold 0-4 23% 25% -7.6 25% 27% -8.1 52% 58% -9.9
08.03.24 Hobro IK vs B 93 Copenhagen 1-1 52% 59% -12.0 26% 29% -8.8 22% 22% 2.0
10.03.24 Aalborg BK vs Vendsyssel FF 4-3 49% 54% -10.2 26% 29% -10.2 25% 27% -6.0
16.03.24 B 93 Copenhagen vs AC Horsens 3-2 35% 40% -12.8 27% 30% -10.0 38% 40% -5.4
16.03.24 FC Fredericia vs HB Köge 2-2 62% 70% -12.4 21% 22% -2.8 17% 17% 3.1
16.03.24 Hillerod Fodbold vs Aalborg BK 1-2 32% 37% -12.9 26% 29% -8.6 42% 44% -6.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 501 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Fredericia 2016.66
2 Vejle BK 2007.73
3 Aalborg BK 1915.32
4 AB Gladsaxe 1849.62
5 Hvidovre IF 1844.64
6 HB Köge 1835.62
7 KIF Kolding 1819.37
8 Vendsyssel FF 1809.23
9 Hillerod Fodbold 1788.17
10 Esbjerg fB 1782.25
11 Aarhus Fremad 1772.59
12 Hobro IK 1767.93

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Fredericia 1999.20
2 Vejle BK 1973.65
3 Aalborg BK 1843.13
4 Hvidovre IF 1838.33
5 AB Gladsaxe 1827.69
6 Aarhus Fremad 1788.94
7 HB Köge 1783.80
8 KIF Kolding 1777.39
9 Vendsyssel FF 1764.48
10 Hobro IK 1758.19
11 Esbjerg fB 1744.51
12 Hillerod Fodbold 1700.74