ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 838
Avg Goals 2.43
Avg Home 1.39
Avg Away 1.04
Home Win % 43.7%
Draw % 28.5%
Away Win % 27.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 838
Avg Brier Score 0.6088
Pick Accuracy 48.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6105
Market Brier 0.6094
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 838 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 7.7% 26
10–20% 16.1% 11.7% 273
20–30% 26.6% 28.0% 991
30–40% 33.6% 32.3% 586
40–50% 44.6% 46.1% 330
50–60% 54.8% 53.8% 173
60–70% 64.2% 65.4% 104
70–80% 74.4% 80.6% 31
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Libertad FC vs Emelec 0-0 33% 39% -16.2 29% 31% -6.2 38% 42% -9.2
05.08.23 Orense SC vs Delfin SC 0-0 42% 51% -17.4 30% 33% -8.5 27% 29% -5.0
05.08.23 Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 0-0 57% 65% -11.8 25% 27% -6.4 18% 21% -14.4
06.08.23 Cumbaya FC vs Guayaquil City 2-2 45% 51% -10.6 29% 31% -7.4 26% 30% -14.6
06.08.23 El Nacional Quito vs SD Aucas 2-2 36% 41% -10.9 29% 30% -5.8 35% 42% -16.9
06.08.23 Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Jose Teran 1-0 26% 32% -18.2 28% 29% -6.1 46% 51% -8.9
07.08.23 Barcelona SC vs Gualaceo SC 2-0 66% 75% -11.7 21% 21% -0.8 13% 14% -10.9
08.08.23 LDU Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 66% 75% -11.8 22% 22% -3.2 13% 14% -11.6
12.08.23 Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad FC 2-1 49% 56% -11.9 28% 29% -6.0 23% 27% -13.5
12.08.23 Gualaceo SC vs Mushuc Runa 0-0 41% 49% -15.2 29% 30% -5.5 30% 34% -11.4
12.08.23 Guayaquil City vs Universidad Catolica 0-0 28% 33% -16.4 28% 30% -6.2 44% 49% -10.4
12.08.23 Tecnico Universitario Ambato vs El Nacional Quito 3-3 37% 41% -9.9 29% 31% -6.1 34% 40% -15.3
13.08.23 Delfin SC vs Barcelona SC 1-1 27% 29% -9.6 29% 31% -5.8 44% 52% -14.3
13.08.23 Emelec vs Orense SC 0-0 53% 63% -15.9 27% 28% -4.3 20% 22% -7.0
13.08.23 Independiente Jose Teran vs Cumbaya FC 2-0 73% 81% -10.0 18% 19% -4.8 9% 10% -13.3
14.08.23 SD Aucas vs LDU Quito 0-0 28% 32% -14.4 29% 31% -6.1 44% 49% -10.8
16.08.23 Mushuc Runa vs Guayaquil City 3-0 53% 61% -13.2 27% 29% -5.5 20% 23% -10.4
17.08.23 Libertad FC vs Delfin SC 1-3 45% 53% -15.2 29% 31% -6.1 25% 27% -6.3
17.08.23 Orense SC vs Gualaceo SC 2-0 56% 64% -12.7 27% 29% -6.1 18% 19% -7.9
17.08.23 Universidad Catolica vs SD Aucas 2-2 44% 51% -13.3 29% 31% -6.0 27% 31% -11.3
18.08.23 Cumbaya FC vs Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 31% 33% -8.3 31% 34% -8.7 38% 45% -15.4
18.08.23 Tecnico Universitario Ambato vs Emelec 0-0 39% 45% -15.2 31% 33% -8.2 31% 34% -9.1
19.08.23 Barcelona SC vs Independiente Jose Teran 1-1 34% 38% -10.3 30% 32% -7.1 36% 43% -15.0
19.08.23 LDU Quito vs El Nacional Quito 0-0 59% 66% -10.5 23% 24% -3.8 18% 22% -18.1
26.08.23 Guayaquil City vs Orense SC 1-0 34% 40% -15.7 31% 33% -8.3 36% 39% -9.0
26.08.23 Independiente Jose Teran vs Universidad Catolica 0-1 56% 63% -12.1 26% 27% -5.4 19% 22% -13.4
27.08.23 Emelec vs Delfin SC 0-1 50% 58% -14.0 28% 30% -6.6 22% 24% -8.9
27.08.23 Mushuc Runa vs Barcelona SC 2-2 33% 39% -15.5 29% 31% -6.1 38% 42% -9.9
27.08.23 SD Aucas vs Libertad FC 1-2 52% 60% -12.8 27% 29% -5.4 21% 24% -11.6
28.08.23 Gualaceo SC vs LDU Quito 1-3 21% 25% -17.2 27% 29% -7.2 53% 59% -10.2
29.08.23 Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 1-1 41% 47% -11.0 30% 33% -9.2 28% 33% -15.0
02.09.23 Delfin SC vs Independiente Jose Teran 1-0 27% 30% -12.1 30% 32% -7.2 43% 49% -11.0
02.09.23 Libertad FC vs Mushuc Runa 0-1 41% 49% -15.2 29% 31% -6.1 29% 32% -9.2
02.09.23 Universidad Catolica vs El Nacional Quito 1-1 44% 50% -11.3 28% 29% -5.6 28% 33% -16.4
03.09.23 Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC 1-0 46% 54% -14.4 29% 31% -6.5 25% 27% -8.0
03.09.23 Emelec vs SD Aucas 0-0 45% 53% -14.1 29% 31% -6.6 26% 29% -11.4
03.09.23 Tecnico Universitario Ambato vs Gualaceo SC 4-0 54% 62% -13.8 27% 29% -5.8 19% 21% -8.8
04.09.23 Cumbaya FC vs Barcelona SC 2-2 25% 29% -13.4 29% 31% -7.2 46% 52% -12.2
05.09.23 LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City 2-0 76% 85% -11.7 16% 15% 6.0 8% 9% -5.7
16.09.23 Guayaquil City vs Deportivo Cuenca 0-0 33% 37% -11.3 31% 33% -8.1 37% 42% -13.4
16.09.23 Mushuc Runa vs Delfin SC 2-0 45% 53% -14.1 29% 31% -6.2 25% 28% -8.3
16.09.23 Orense SC vs Universidad Catolica 1-2 36% 42% -15.2 31% 33% -8.1 34% 37% -9.3
17.09.23 El Nacional Quito vs Emelec 1-1 46% 53% -13.3 28% 29% -5.0 26% 30% -12.7
17.09.23 Independiente Jose Teran vs Libertad FC 2-0 71% 80% -11.3 19% 20% -2.6 10% 11% -8.7
17.09.23 SD Aucas vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 2-4 44% 50% -11.4 29% 32% -8.6 26% 31% -14.8
18.09.23 Barcelona SC vs LDU Quito 1-0 35% 41% -14.9 31% 33% -8.2 35% 38% -9.9
23.09.23 Emelec vs Mushuc Runa 3-1 56% 66% -16.0 26% 26% -1.9 19% 19% -2.7
23.09.23 LDU Quito vs Orense SC 1-0 67% 77% -13.4 22% 22% -0.5 12% 12% -3.1
23.09.23 Universidad Catolica vs Gualaceo SC 0-0 67% 76% -12.5 21% 22% -1.9 12% 13% -7.9
24.09.23 Cumbaya FC vs SD Aucas 1-1 32% 37% -12.6 29% 30% -5.3 39% 45% -14.3
24.09.23 Delfin SC vs Guayaquil City 1-0 52% 59% -11.2 28% 31% -8.4 20% 22% -11.8
24.09.23 Tecnico Universitario Ambato vs Independiente Jose Teran 2-2 26% 30% -13.5 30% 32% -8.1 44% 50% -11.7
25.09.23 Deportivo Cuenca vs Barcelona SC 1-2 36% 42% -12.5 30% 32% -7.1 34% 38% -12.7
26.09.23 Libertad FC vs El Nacional Quito 0-1 33% 37% -12.1 29% 31% -5.5 38% 44% -13.6
30.09.23 El Nacional Quito vs Delfin SC 2-2 51% 58% -12.4 27% 29% -5.5 22% 25% -12.8
30.09.23 Gualaceo SC vs Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 32% 37% -13.1 30% 32% -6.8 38% 43% -11.2
30.09.23 Mushuc Runa vs Cumbaya FC 1-1 49% 56% -12.4 29% 31% -7.4 22% 25% -10.3
01.10.23 Guayaquil City vs SD Aucas 0-1 32% 36% -12.0 30% 32% -7.4 38% 44% -14.2
01.10.23 Independiente Jose Teran vs Emelec 2-1 57% 66% -13.4 25% 27% -4.7 17% 19% -9.4
01.10.23 Orense SC vs Libertad FC 3-0 55% 65% -15.1 26% 27% -3.0 19% 20% -5.0
02.10.23 Barcelona SC vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 1-0 52% 60% -13.1 27% 29% -6.8 20% 23% -10.9
07.10.23 Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica 2-3 31% 35% -11.1 31% 33% -8.3 38% 44% -13.9
07.10.23 Emelec vs Cumbaya FC 3-0 66% 76% -13.1 23% 24% -3.8 11% 11% -1.2
07.10.23 Tecnico Universitario Ambato vs Orense SC 2-1 55% 65% -15.8 27% 28% -3.4 18% 18% -0.1
08.10.23 El Nacional Quito vs Mushuc Runa 2-0 52% 60% -12.6 27% 29% -6.1 21% 24% -13.3
08.10.23 Independiente Jose Teran vs Gualaceo SC 2-0 75% 85% -11.3 17% 17% 0.1 8% 9% -10.6
08.10.23 SD Aucas vs Barcelona SC 3-2 39% 45% -13.7 29% 31% -6.6 32% 36% -13.2
09.10.23 Delfin SC vs LDU Quito 0-0 28% 34% -17.5 29% 32% -8.6 42% 47% -9.6
10.10.23 Libertad FC vs Guayaquil City 1-0 49% 56% -13.5 29% 31% -7.1 22% 24% -8.4
21.10.23 Cumbaya FC vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 0-1 24% 27% -10.4 30% 33% -9.1 46% 53% -13.0
21.10.23 Mushuc Runa vs Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 42% 49% -13.2 29% 31% -6.4 28% 32% -11.9
21.10.23 Orense SC vs El Nacional Quito 1-1 42% 50% -16.0 31% 34% -8.6 27% 29% -5.4
22.10.23 Barcelona SC vs Libertad FC 1-0 64% 75% -14.2 22% 22% 0.4 14% 14% -4.5
22.10.23 Gualaceo SC vs SD Aucas 1-2 30% 34% -13.9 30% 33% -8.8 40% 45% -12.2
22.10.23 Guayaquil City vs Independiente Jose Teran 0-2 18% 20% -10.7 26% 28% -5.5 56% 64% -12.3
23.10.23 LDU Quito vs Emelec 0-0 54% 65% -16.0 26% 26% -1.8 20% 21% -5.2
24.10.23 Universidad Catolica vs Delfin SC 2-2 57% 66% -12.8 25% 27% -5.7 17% 20% -12.7
28.10.23 Independiente Jose Teran vs Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 66% 75% -11.8 22% 23% -4.6 13% 14% -12.4
28.10.23 Libertad FC vs Gualaceo SC 3-0 46% 53% -13.5 29% 31% -6.1 25% 28% -9.8
29.10.23 Delfin SC vs Cumbaya FC 4-0 61% 69% -12.8 25% 26% -5.8 15% 16% -8.5
29.10.23 Emelec vs Universidad Catolica 2-1 45% 53% -14.4 29% 31% -6.7 26% 29% -9.7
29.10.23 SD Aucas vs Mushuc Runa 4-0 52% 61% -14.1 27% 28% -4.2 21% 24% -10.3
30.10.23 Orense SC vs Barcelona SC 2-3 33% 39% -15.9 30% 32% -7.2 37% 41% -9.1
31.10.23 El Nacional Quito vs Guayaquil City 2-0 65% 75% -13.3 21% 21% 1.1 14% 16% -10.9
02.11.23 LDU Quito vs Universidad Catolica 1-0 49% 56% -12.5 28% 29% -6.3 24% 28% -14.3
04.11.23 Deportivo Cuenca vs SD Aucas 0-0 36% 40% -11.1 30% 32% -7.0 34% 40% -13.9
04.11.23 Gualaceo SC vs Delfin SC 2-2 34% 40% -13.8 32% 35% -9.4 34% 38% -10.0
04.11.23 Guayaquil City vs Emelec 0-0 23% 27% -14.3 29% 31% -8.0 48% 54% -10.5
05.11.23 Cumbaya FC vs Orense SC 0-1 30% 35% -13.7 31% 34% -9.2 38% 43% -9.7
05.11.23 LDU Quito vs Independiente Jose Teran 2-0 36% 40% -10.7 30% 32% -7.0 34% 40% -14.3
05.11.23 Mushuc Runa vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 1-0 29% 33% -11.7 30% 33% -8.6 40% 47% -13.7
06.11.23 Barcelona SC vs El Nacional Quito 3-2 54% 63% -14.4 26% 27% -3.3 20% 22% -9.8
07.11.23 Universidad Catolica vs Libertad FC 0-0 63% 71% -11.5 22% 23% -3.2 14% 17% -13.2
09.11.23 Tecnico Universitario Ambato vs LDU Quito 0-2 31% 34% -8.8 29% 31% -6.0 39% 47% -15.8
11.11.23 Guayaquil City vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato 1-0 29% 34% -13.8 30% 33% -8.6 40% 45% -11.3
11.11.23 Orense SC vs Mushuc Runa 1-0 52% 61% -15.3 27% 29% -4.6 21% 22% -6.5
11.11.23 Universidad Catolica vs Cumbaya FC 1-0 68% 76% -9.8 21% 22% -7.5 11% 13% -16.6
12.11.23 Libertad FC vs LDU Quito 0-2 22% 24% -11.4 30% 32% -8.5 49% 55% -11.1
12.11.23 SD Aucas vs Independiente Jose Teran 2-0 27% 30% -11.6 29% 31% -6.1 44% 51% -13.6
13.11.23 Emelec vs Barcelona SC 0-0 34% 38% -10.9 31% 34% -9.0 35% 41% -14.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 838 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Independiente Jose Teran 1948.91
2 LDU Quito 1882.11
3 Universidad Catolica 1847.67
4 Barcelona SC 1839.15
5 Mushuc Runa 1763.67
6 SD Aucas 1747.97
7 Emelec 1745.78
8 Deportivo Cuenca 1736.49
9 Libertad FC 1726.66
10 Macara Ambato 1718.06
11 Guayaquil City 1703.84
12 Club Leones Del Norte 1696.48
13 Manta FC 1685.41
14 Tecnico Universitario Ambato 1677.07
15 Delfin SC 1663.12
16 Orense SC 1651.20

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Independiente Jose Teran 1895.20
2 LDU Quito 1818.48
3 Universidad Catolica 1804.96
4 SD Aucas 1720.55
5 Macara Ambato 1676.40
6 Mushuc Runa 1670.13
7 Club Leones Del Norte 1642.38
8 Orense SC 1633.32
9 Emelec 1622.11
10 Barcelona SC 1611.94
11 Guayaquil City 1609.97
12 Deportivo Cuenca 1599.56
13 Libertad FC 1595.87
14 Tecnico Universitario Ambato 1594.86
15 Manta FC 1563.55
16 Delfin SC 1543.89