ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 443
Avg Goals 2.16
Avg Home 1.31
Avg Away 0.85
Home Win % 45.8%
Draw % 32.1%
Away Win % 22.1%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 443
Avg Brier Score 0.6059
Pick Accuracy 47.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6112
Market Brier 0.6041
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 443 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit -3.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.2% 0.0% 1
10–20% 16.9% 13.6% 118
20–30% 26.3% 22.2% 465
30–40% 33.3% 35.3% 428
40–50% 44.9% 46.6% 178
50–60% 54.3% 59.6% 109
60–70% 64.0% 85.7% 28
70–80% 71.4% 50.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.08.23 Buhos ULVR vs CD Independiente Juniors 0-0 33% 38% -13.4 32% 35% -9.2 35% 40% -12.3
02.08.23 Vinotinto FC vs Club Nueve de Octubre 4-0 44% 51% -13.4 31% 33% -8.4 26% 29% -9.8
03.08.23 Macara Ambato vs Vargas Torres 2-0 60% 67% -10.0 26% 29% -11.2 14% 15% -9.8
04.08.23 Imbabura SC vs Chacaritas SC 0-1 53% 62% -14.7 27% 28% -4.3 20% 22% -8.0
09.08.23 Vargas Torres vs Vinotinto FC 1-1 44% 51% -12.5 30% 33% -8.8 25% 29% -11.1
10.08.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs Imbabura SC 0-0 45% 51% -11.7 30% 32% -8.0 26% 29% -12.5
10.08.23 Chacaritas SC vs Manta FC 0-1 47% 57% -17.7 29% 31% -5.8 24% 24% -1.2
11.08.23 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Macara Ambato 1-1 40% 48% -17.0 30% 32% -6.2 30% 32% -6.3
15.08.23 Manta FC vs Vargas Torres 0-1 52% 61% -14.2 29% 31% -6.9 19% 20% -3.3
16.08.23 CD America de Quito vs CD Independiente Juniors 0-1 34% 40% -14.3 30% 31% -5.6 36% 42% -13.1
16.08.23 Imbabura SC vs Club Nueve de Octubre 2-1 54% 64% -15.5 26% 27% -3.0 20% 21% -5.4
16.08.23 Macara Ambato vs Vinotinto FC 2-0 57% 66% -12.7 26% 28% -7.7 17% 19% -11.0
17.08.23 Buhos ULVR vs Chacaritas SC 0-0 36% 42% -12.9 33% 36% -10.1 31% 34% -10.0
23.08.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs Manta FC 0-0 49% 56% -14.0 31% 34% -9.6 21% 22% -4.5
23.08.23 Club Nueve de Octubre vs CD America de Quito 1-0 54% 64% -15.2 26% 27% -3.1 20% 21% -5.9
23.08.23 Vargas Torres vs Imbabura SC 1-1 32% 36% -10.1 33% 36% -10.2 35% 41% -13.7
24.08.23 Chacaritas SC vs Macara Ambato 1-2 24% 26% -7.0 31% 34% -7.9 45% 53% -14.7
25.08.23 Vinotinto FC vs Buhos ULVR 5-0 46% 52% -10.5 29% 32% -8.6 24% 28% -13.2
30.08.23 CD America de Quito vs Vargas Torres 1-0 44% 51% -12.3 31% 34% -9.5 25% 27% -9.3
31.08.23 Buhos ULVR vs Club Nueve de Octubre 1-2 35% 40% -13.2 30% 32% -6.3 35% 40% -12.3
31.08.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs Chacaritas SC 2-3 54% 62% -11.7 27% 29% -8.2 19% 21% -11.2
01.09.23 Imbabura SC vs Vinotinto FC 2-2 55% 62% -11.4 26% 28% -6.3 19% 21% -11.6
06.09.23 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Chacaritas SC 1-0 51% 60% -13.5 27% 28% -4.1 22% 24% -10.3
06.09.23 Vargas Torres vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-0 41% 48% -14.4 32% 35% -8.8 27% 29% -6.7
06.09.23 Vinotinto FC vs Manta FC 1-1 47% 56% -16.9 29% 31% -6.0 24% 24% -3.0
07.09.23 Imbabura SC vs Buhos ULVR 2-1 63% 71% -11.5 22% 22% -2.7 15% 17% -12.8
09.09.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs Club Nueve de Octubre 3-1 49% 58% -14.7 28% 29% -4.8 23% 24% -7.0
10.09.23 CD America de Quito vs Vinotinto FC 1-0 39% 44% -12.9 30% 31% -5.5 32% 36% -12.6
10.09.23 Chacaritas SC vs Vargas Torres 3-1 55% 65% -16.0 27% 28% -4.3 18% 19% -2.9
11.09.23 Manta FC vs Imbabura SC 1-0 38% 44% -15.3 32% 34% -8.3 31% 33% -7.7
13.09.23 Macara Ambato vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-1 52% 59% -12.3 28% 30% -8.0 20% 23% -11.2
13.09.23 Vinotinto FC vs Chacaritas SC 2-0 46% 53% -13.9 29% 30% -5.8 25% 29% -11.0
14.09.23 Imbabura SC vs CD America de Quito 5-2 57% 65% -10.9 24% 26% -5.0 18% 21% -13.6
14.09.23 Vargas Torres vs Club Nueve de Octubre 1-0 34% 39% -13.7 32% 35% -8.7 34% 38% -9.6
20.09.23 Chacaritas SC vs Imbabura SC 1-2 37% 43% -13.8 30% 31% -5.5 33% 38% -12.5
20.09.23 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto FC 1-2 48% 55% -11.7 29% 32% -8.7 22% 25% -10.8
21.09.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs Buhos ULVR 2-0 59% 67% -12.0 24% 26% -5.7 17% 19% -12.2
22.09.23 Vargas Torres vs Macara Ambato 0-2 22% 24% -9.8 31% 34% -8.6 47% 54% -13.1
27.09.23 Imbabura SC vs CD Independiente Juniors 0-3 46% 52% -11.4 29% 31% -7.0 25% 29% -12.3
27.09.23 Vinotinto FC vs Vargas Torres 5-2 55% 63% -12.9 27% 29% -6.8 18% 20% -8.9
28.09.23 Macara Ambato vs Club Nueve de Octubre 2-1 58% 67% -12.8 25% 26% -5.7 17% 19% -10.6
29.09.23 Manta FC vs Chacaritas SC 1-0 53% 64% -16.8 27% 28% -3.5 20% 21% -3.1
04.10.23 Chacaritas SC vs Buhos ULVR 4-0 57% 66% -14.6 26% 27% -4.0 18% 19% -6.2
04.10.23 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Imbabura SC 1-1 41% 48% -13.7 29% 30% -5.0 30% 34% -12.7
04.10.23 Vargas Torres vs Manta FC 1-1 37% 44% -15.9 33% 36% -9.7 30% 31% -4.6
05.10.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs CD America de Quito 2-2 51% 57% -11.6 27% 29% -7.0 22% 26% -13.7
06.10.23 Vinotinto FC vs Macara Ambato 2-1 35% 42% -15.4 31% 33% -7.9 34% 38% -11.5
11.10.23 Buhos ULVR vs Vinotinto FC 1-3 38% 44% -15.4 29% 30% -4.4 33% 38% -11.4
11.10.23 CD America de Quito vs Club Nueve de Octubre 1-0 46% 55% -16.4 28% 29% -2.9 26% 29% -7.8
11.10.23 Imbabura SC vs Vargas Torres 1-1 63% 72% -12.4 22% 22% -2.2 15% 17% -11.0
11.10.23 Manta FC vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-2 48% 56% -14.9 30% 33% -9.0 22% 23% -5.3
12.10.23 Macara Ambato vs Chacaritas SC 1-2 43% 48% -9.6 29% 31% -7.3 28% 33% -16.1
18.10.23 Chacaritas SC vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-0 44% 50% -11.9 27% 29% -4.6 29% 34% -16.8
18.10.23 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Buhos ULVR 3-1 67% 79% -15.3 21% 20% 4.0 12% 12% 3.1
18.10.23 Vargas Torres vs CD America de Quito 0-1 39% 45% -15.0 31% 34% -8.6 30% 34% -10.4
19.10.23 Vinotinto FC vs Imbabura SC 1-1 37% 43% -13.0 29% 30% -4.9 34% 40% -14.7
27.10.23 Buhos ULVR vs Vargas Torres 0-1 19% 18% 3.6 26% 26% 1.4 55% 68% -19.4
27.10.23 CD America de Quito vs Chacaritas SC 3-1 66% 79% -16.8 21% 20% 7.0 13% 12% 11.3
27.10.23 CD Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto FC 2-4 28% 29% -2.5 27% 28% -1.1 45% 56% -19.6
27.10.23 Imbabura SC vs Macara Ambato 4-0 47% 53% -10.5 33% 38% -14.2 20% 22% -8.5
27.10.23 Manta FC vs Club Nueve de Octubre 0-1 23% 26% -9.0 27% 28% -2.0 49% 60% -16.9
13.03.24 CD Independiente Juniors vs Vargas Torres 1-1 57% 65% -11.7 27% 29% -9.3 16% 18% -9.9
13.03.24 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Manta FC 0-3 53% 56% -6.7 27% 31% -12.1 20% 24% -18.7
13.03.24 Vinotinto FC vs Club Leones Del Norte 4-1 54% 64% -15.1 26% 27% -3.2 20% 21% -6.0
14.03.24 San Antonio FC vs Gualaceo SC 0-1 29% 30% -5.6 29% 31% -5.1 42% 52% -18.5
15.03.24 Chacaritas SC vs Guayaquil City 2-1 32% 38% -16.0 31% 34% -7.9 36% 40% -8.8
19.03.24 Manta FC vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-0 43% 50% -13.7 31% 34% -9.2 26% 28% -8.1
20.03.24 Vargas Torres vs Chacaritas SC 1-1 39% 45% -14.1 33% 36% -10.3 28% 31% -7.9
21.03.24 Gualaceo SC vs Vinotinto FC 0-1 46% 51% -8.8 29% 31% -8.7 25% 31% -17.4
21.03.24 Guayaquil City vs San Antonio FC 4-0 51% 59% -14.0 28% 30% -6.9 21% 23% -8.3
23.03.24 Club Leones Del Norte vs Club Nueve de Octubre 2-1 38% 45% -15.7 30% 32% -6.5 32% 35% -9.6
27.03.24 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Guayaquil City 0-0 39% 43% -9.9 31% 33% -8.4 30% 36% -15.2
27.03.24 San Antonio FC vs Vinotinto FC 1-0 33% 35% -6.5 30% 32% -7.0 37% 45% -18.2
27.03.24 Vargas Torres vs Club Leones Del Norte 1-1 44% 54% -18.4 29% 30% -4.4 27% 28% -3.1
28.03.24 CD Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC 3-2 37% 43% -15.8 30% 32% -6.2 33% 36% -8.9
28.03.24 Chacaritas SC vs Manta FC 1-0 50% 60% -15.6 28% 30% -6.0 21% 22% -4.2
03.04.24 Manta FC vs Vargas Torres 0-0 51% 59% -12.5 29% 31% -8.3 20% 22% -8.5
03.04.24 San Antonio FC vs CD Independiente Juniors 0-0 29% 30% -5.4 31% 33% -7.4 40% 49% -17.1
04.04.24 Vinotinto FC vs Chacaritas SC 1-2 50% 56% -11.7 28% 30% -7.9 22% 26% -13.5
05.04.24 Gualaceo SC vs Club Nueve de Octubre 2-1 52% 60% -12.1 27% 29% -6.9 20% 23% -10.8
10.04.24 CD Independiente Juniors vs Guayaquil City 1-0 49% 56% -13.1 29% 31% -7.7 22% 24% -9.6
10.04.24 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto FC 1-0 47% 53% -10.7 29% 32% -10.0 23% 28% -15.5
10.04.24 Vargas Torres vs Gualaceo SC 1-0 34% 42% -19.0 31% 34% -8.4 35% 37% -6.1
12.04.24 Chacaritas SC vs San Antonio FC 0-0 50% 58% -12.7 28% 31% -8.0 21% 24% -10.8
16.04.24 Vinotinto FC vs Vargas Torres 2-1 57% 65% -12.3 26% 28% -6.6 17% 18% -8.1
17.04.24 Chacaritas SC vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-5 34% 40% -14.9 32% 34% -8.2 34% 38% -9.1
17.04.24 Gualaceo SC vs Club Leones Del Norte 2-1 52% 60% -13.1 28% 30% -7.2 20% 21% -7.2
17.04.24 San Antonio FC vs Club Nueve de Octubre 1-0 36% 41% -13.0 31% 33% -7.6 34% 38% -12.5
23.04.24 Manta FC vs Gualaceo SC 1-0 40% 47% -14.9 32% 36% -10.0 28% 31% -8.1
24.04.24 Club Nueve de Octubre vs Chacaritas SC 1-0 49% 56% -13.8 29% 31% -6.9 23% 25% -9.3
24.04.24 Vargas Torres vs Guayaquil City 2-1 33% 39% -15.1 34% 38% -11.0 33% 36% -7.3
25.04.24 Club Leones Del Norte vs San Antonio FC 0-1 45% 50% -10.5 29% 32% -8.6 26% 30% -14.8
26.04.24 CD Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto FC 4-0 53% 60% -11.7 27% 29% -7.5 20% 23% -12.4
30.04.24 Vinotinto FC vs Manta FC 2-1 52% 60% -13.0 27% 29% -6.6 20% 22% -9.4
01.05.24 Chacaritas SC vs Club Leones Del Norte 2-0 44% 51% -14.0 29% 30% -5.8 27% 31% -12.4
01.05.24 Gualaceo SC vs Guayaquil City 0-4 46% 53% -14.1 31% 34% -9.2 23% 25% -7.0
02.05.24 Club Nueve de Octubre vs CD Independiente Juniors 0-0 35% 41% -13.3 30% 32% -6.3 34% 39% -12.3
03.05.24 San Antonio FC vs Vargas Torres 2-2 39% 43% -8.9 32% 35% -10.0 30% 35% -14.9
07.05.24 Club Leones Del Norte vs CD Independiente Juniors 1-1 31% 36% -12.3 29% 31% -5.1 39% 47% -15.1
08.05.24 Guayaquil City vs Vinotinto FC 0-2 53% 62% -14.6 27% 28% -4.4 20% 22% -7.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 443 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Club Nueve de Octubre 1758.48
2 CD Independiente Juniors 1686.28
3 Vinotinto FC 1647.19
4 Club Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1579.60
5 Cumbaya FC 1561.66
6 Atletico Rojiblanco 1535.97
7 CDA Santo Domingo 1534.95
8 Gualaceo SC 1521.18
9 LDU Portoviejo 1510.98
10 El Nacional Quito 1476.66
11 San Antonio FC 1429.65
12 22 de Julio 1363.34

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Vinotinto FC 1709.44
2 Club Nueve de Octubre 1574.93
3 CD Independiente Juniors 1510.93
4 Atletico Rojiblanco 1496.90
5 Cumbaya FC 1494.88
6 Gualaceo SC 1425.25
7 CDA Santo Domingo 1414.69
8 Club Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1381.67
9 El Nacional Quito 1351.35
10 LDU Portoviejo 1346.11
11 22 de Julio 1344.68
12 San Antonio FC 1338.58