ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 316
Avg Goals 2.91
Avg Home 1.56
Avg Away 1.34
Home Win % 42.7%
Draw % 21.5%
Away Win % 35.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 316
Avg Brier Score 0.5888
Pick Accuracy 53.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5949
Market Brier 0.5883
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 8
Value Bet Hit Rate 12.5%
ROI (flat stake) -15.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 62.5% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 8 of 316 matches had at least one · staked 8.00, profit -1.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 5 20.0% 5.00 1.75 35.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.8% 13.3% 15
10–20% 16.0% 20.1% 154
20–30% 25.1% 21.8% 381
30–40% 35.0% 38.6% 127
40–50% 44.8% 47.1% 104
50–60% 55.4% 57.0% 86
60–70% 64.3% 63.8% 47
70–80% 73.6% 66.7% 30
80–90% 82.9% 75.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
26.08.23 Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 1-0 17% 17% -1.3 23% 26% -10.4 60% 68% -12.6
27.08.23 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 1-1 50% 52% -3.6 25% 30% -16.7 25% 31% -19.3
27.08.23 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Reading WFC (W) 1-1 32% 38% -14.1 25% 29% -11.0 42% 45% -7.3
27.08.23 Lewes LFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 1-4 35% 38% -8.1 29% 34% -15.3 35% 39% -9.5
27.08.23 Sunderland WFC (W) vs London City Lionesses LFC (W) 0-0 11% 10% 10.6 19% 20% -5.8 70% 81% -13.1
27.08.23 Watford LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 1-1 37% 43% -13.5 26% 29% -11.8 37% 41% -8.7
03.09.23 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 1-2 59% 68% -13.4 22% 25% -10.1 19% 19% -2.1
03.09.23 Durham WFC (W) vs Lewes LFC (W) 2-0 48% 58% -17.1 26% 29% -11.9 26% 25% 3.5
03.09.23 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 0-1 54% 58% -8.4 24% 28% -14.0 23% 26% -14.4
03.09.23 Southampton LFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 2-0 61% 68% -11.1 23% 27% -13.5 16% 16% -1.8
10.09.23 Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-1 24% 25% -4.1 26% 29% -12.2 50% 58% -13.2
10.09.23 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 9-1 36% 43% -14.5 27% 31% -12.9 37% 39% -6.1
10.09.23 Lewes LFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 0-0 21% 21% -2.5 25% 29% -12.0 54% 62% -12.5
10.09.23 Southampton LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 0-1 56% 61% -8.4 25% 30% -16.7 19% 21% -10.8
17.09.23 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 0-1 45% 50% -9.7 27% 31% -14.1 28% 31% -10.4
17.09.23 Durham WFC (W) vs London City Lionesses LFC (W) 1-0 30% 34% -12.3 25% 29% -11.1 44% 49% -9.0
17.09.23 Reading WFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 1-4 31% 32% -4.9 27% 31% -13.1 43% 50% -14.8
17.09.23 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Lewes LFC (W) 1-0 49% 55% -11.1 26% 30% -13.3 25% 27% -6.9
17.09.23 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 1-1 34% 37% -8.6 26% 29% -11.4 40% 45% -11.8
01.10.23 Durham WFC (W) vs Reading WFC (W) 0-2 35% 40% -12.0 27% 30% -12.5 38% 42% -9.3
01.10.23 Southampton LFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 1-3 43% 50% -13.1 26% 29% -12.1 31% 33% -7.9
01.10.23 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Watford LFC (W) 2-1 40% 44% -10.4 27% 31% -12.8 33% 37% -9.8
07.10.23 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs London City Lionesses LFC (W) 3-1 38% 43% -12.6 28% 32% -13.4 34% 36% -4.7
08.10.23 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 1-1 55% 61% -10.1 25% 29% -14.0 21% 23% -9.5
08.10.23 Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 0-4 33% 35% -6.7 27% 30% -12.1 41% 47% -12.7
08.10.23 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 1-1 53% 61% -13.2 25% 29% -12.4 22% 22% -2.4
08.10.23 Watford LFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 0-2 26% 29% -12.5 26% 29% -13.2 49% 54% -9.8
15.10.23 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs London City Lionesses LFC (W) 6-1 54% 63% -15.2 23% 25% -8.1 23% 24% -2.0
15.10.23 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 0-4 36% 40% -9.4 28% 32% -14.3 36% 41% -11.4
15.10.23 Southampton LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 2-1 57% 67% -14.8 23% 26% -8.9 20% 19% 4.4
15.10.23 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Reading WFC (W) 3-1 45% 52% -12.5 25% 29% -10.8 29% 31% -6.6
22.10.23 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Watford LFC (W) 5-2 60% 70% -13.5 22% 24% -9.0 18% 18% -1.7
22.10.23 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 3-2 33% 36% -8.3 27% 31% -13.0 39% 44% -11.2
22.10.23 Durham WFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 2-1 45% 50% -10.0 26% 31% -14.0 29% 32% -11.4
22.10.23 Lewes LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 0-2 29% 31% -6.2 27% 31% -13.1 44% 50% -12.0
22.10.23 London City Lionesses LFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 1-0 26% 29% -11.1 25% 28% -11.4 49% 56% -11.4
22.10.23 Reading WFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 1-3 38% 44% -13.8 27% 31% -13.1 35% 38% -7.4
05.11.23 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Reading WFC (W) 2-1 60% 70% -14.7 22% 24% -7.3 18% 17% 5.3
05.11.23 Durham WFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 0-1 33% 36% -8.8 27% 31% -13.0 40% 44% -10.8
05.11.23 Southampton LFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-1 55% 64% -13.5 24% 28% -12.1 20% 21% -1.7
05.11.23 Watford LFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 0-3 21% 22% -4.5 23% 26% -9.1 55% 64% -12.9
12.11.23 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Lewes LFC (W) 3-2 67% 75% -9.9 19% 21% -9.8 14% 15% -7.2
12.11.23 London City Lionesses LFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 0-1 27% 31% -12.1 26% 30% -13.5 46% 51% -9.7
12.11.23 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 0-1 53% 61% -13.3 25% 28% -11.7 22% 23% -3.7
12.11.23 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 0-1 57% 65% -11.1 24% 28% -12.8 18% 19% -3.2
19.11.23 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 3-1 67% 77% -12.9 20% 21% -6.2 13% 12% 7.5
19.11.23 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 1-1 44% 51% -13.0 28% 32% -13.5 28% 29% -1.5
19.11.23 Watford LFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 1-3 31% 34% -9.8 26% 29% -11.3 43% 48% -10.1
17.12.23 Durham WFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 1-0 20% 19% 4.1 24% 27% -9.6 56% 66% -14.8
17.12.23 Reading WFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 1-1 19% 23% -17.3 23% 27% -14.7 58% 62% -6.5
17.12.23 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 2-2 28% 30% -7.8 26% 30% -12.8 46% 52% -12.0
17.12.23 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 0-3 29% 31% -8.1 27% 31% -13.5 44% 50% -11.5
21.01.24 Lewes LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 1-1 33% 36% -9.5 28% 32% -13.8 39% 43% -9.6
21.01.24 London City Lionesses LFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 0-2 27% 33% -19.0 26% 30% -15.0 47% 49% -3.2
21.01.24 Southampton LFC (W) vs Watford LFC (W) 3-0 64% 68% -7.2 21% 24% -14.5 16% 18% -14.2
21.01.24 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 3-0 44% 49% -9.2 27% 31% -13.9 29% 32% -10.7
27.01.24 Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 0-2 24% 23% 2.8 26% 29% -11.7 50% 60% -15.5
28.01.24 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs London City Lionesses LFC (W) 1-0 61% 66% -7.7 22% 26% -14.2 17% 20% -13.5
28.01.24 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 0-1 45% 49% -8.6 26% 30% -13.4 29% 33% -12.4
28.01.24 Durham WFC (W) vs Watford LFC (W) 0-2 47% 52% -9.5 26% 30% -14.1 27% 31% -12.0
28.01.24 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 0-1 20% 22% -8.8 24% 27% -11.7 57% 64% -11.1
04.02.24 Durham WFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-5 38% 42% -10.0 28% 32% -14.3 34% 38% -10.6
04.02.24 Reading WFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 1-0 25% 25% 1.5 27% 31% -13.0 47% 56% -14.6
04.02.24 Southampton LFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 1-2 40% 45% -12.7 26% 30% -12.7 34% 37% -8.6
04.02.24 Watford LFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 2-0 18% 17% 6.2 22% 24% -7.1 60% 71% -15.8
18.02.24 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 1-2 45% 52% -13.7 26% 30% -12.7 29% 30% -4.9
18.02.24 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 4-0 68% 76% -10.5 19% 21% -11.0 13% 14% -8.3
18.02.24 London City Lionesses LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 2-2 44% 51% -13.8 27% 31% -13.1 29% 29% -2.7
18.02.24 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Lewes LFC (W) 4-3 51% 58% -11.7 26% 31% -14.4 23% 24% -5.2
03.03.24 Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 2-2 39% 43% -10.4 27% 31% -13.3 34% 38% -10.0
03.03.24 Lewes LFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-1 33% 38% -11.4 27% 31% -13.3 39% 43% -9.2
10.03.24 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 1-0 61% 69% -11.7 21% 24% -10.0 17% 18% -5.2
13.03.24 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Watford LFC (W) 1-0 43% 49% -12.0 25% 29% -11.2 32% 35% -9.7
17.03.24 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 0-0 68% 76% -11.1 19% 22% -11.0 13% 13% -3.9
17.03.24 Durham WFC (W) vs Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 0-1 18% 18% -2.8 23% 26% -10.5 59% 68% -12.7
17.03.24 London City Lionesses LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 1-0 32% 34% -4.7 27% 31% -12.7 41% 48% -14.2
17.03.24 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Crystal Palace LFC (W) 2-0 19% 20% -4.2 23% 25% -9.4 58% 67% -13.3
17.03.24 Southampton LFC (W) vs Reading WFC (W) 5-0 59% 66% -11.2 23% 26% -12.1 18% 19% -5.1
20.03.24 Reading WFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 0-4 15% 15% -0.3 22% 24% -10.2 63% 72% -12.0
24.03.24 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Lewes LFC (W) 2-0 69% 79% -11.9 19% 21% -8.9 12% 11% 4.8
24.03.24 Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 2-1 16% 16% 1.9 23% 26% -10.3 61% 70% -13.2
24.03.24 Crystal Palace LFC (W) vs Watford LFC (W) 3-0 65% 74% -12.2 21% 23% -9.4 14% 14% 0.9
24.03.24 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Reading WFC (W) 5-1 51% 57% -10.0 25% 29% -13.7 23% 26% -9.4
24.03.24 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 5-3 55% 61% -10.2 25% 29% -13.9 20% 22% -8.4
08.09.24 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Sunderland WFC (W) 5-0 49% 54% -8.8 27% 31% -15.1 24% 27% -10.6
08.09.24 Durham WFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-1 32% 36% -11.4 27% 31% -13.2 41% 44% -8.6
08.09.24 Southampton LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 1-1 45% 51% -12.9 27% 31% -13.4 29% 31% -6.7
14.09.24 Portsmouth LFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 0-3 44% 42% 3.4 24% 29% -15.1 32% 42% -23.8
14.09.24 Sheffield United LFC (W) vs Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 0-1 11% 8% 32.4 19% 19% -1.4 70% 83% -15.1
15.09.24 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 0-0 27% 29% -8.3 25% 29% -11.3 48% 54% -11.8
15.09.24 Sunderland WFC (W) vs Southampton LFC (W) 0-3 28% 29% -3.2 26% 29% -11.5 46% 53% -14.5
22.09.24 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) vs Durham WFC (W) 2-1 59% 62% -6.2 23% 28% -16.6 18% 22% -16.1
22.09.24 London City Lionesses LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 2-1 56% 67% -16.0 23% 25% -7.9 21% 20% 5.0
22.09.24 Newcastle United WFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-0 62% 68% -8.8 21% 24% -13.0 17% 19% -12.1
22.09.24 Southampton LFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 0-1 73% 81% -9.8 18% 20% -12.2 10% 10% -2.9
29.09.24 Durham WFC (W) vs Birmingham City LFC (W) 1-0 19% 21% -8.5 25% 29% -14.5 56% 62% -10.2
29.09.24 Portsmouth LFC (W) vs Newcastle United WFC (W) 0-2 24% 17% 39.8 21% 22% -2.9 55% 72% -24.7
29.09.24 Southampton LFC (W) vs Sheffield United LFC (W) 2-0 66% 75% -10.9 20% 22% -10.7 14% 14% -4.3
29.09.24 Sunderland WFC (W) vs London City Lionesses LFC (W) 1-0 17% 15% 15.9 22% 23% -4.8 61% 74% -17.4
06.10.24 Birmingham City LFC (W) vs Blackburn Rovers LFC (W) 2-0 72% 80% -10.1 17% 19% -9.7 11% 11% -4.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 316 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

13 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Newcastle United WFC (W) 1822.54
2 Leicester City WFC (W) 1690.08
3 Bristol City WFC (W) 1674.00
4 Nottingham Forest LFC (W) 1673.77
5 Southampton LFC (W) 1660.88
6 Sunderland WFC (W) 1625.38
7 Ipswich Town LFC (W) 1529.34
8 Wolverhampton Wanderers WFC (W) 1499.56
9 Sheffield United LFC (W) 1497.16
10 Burnley (W) 1484.38
11 Durham WFC (W) 1432.11
12 Watford LFC (W) 1416.39
13 Portsmouth LFC (W) 1415.51

Away Ratings

13 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Newcastle United WFC (W) 1761.84
2 Sunderland WFC (W) 1664.31
3 Bristol City WFC (W) 1637.16
4 Leicester City WFC (W) 1628.00
5 Nottingham Forest LFC (W) 1604.81
6 Southampton LFC (W) 1562.16
7 Burnley (W) 1503.14
8 Durham WFC (W) 1499.34
9 Ipswich Town LFC (W) 1491.13
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers WFC (W) 1473.27
11 Sheffield United LFC (W) 1458.70
12 Watford LFC (W) 1408.50
13 Portsmouth LFC (W) 1351.75