ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 396
Avg Goals 3.16
Avg Home 1.68
Avg Away 1.48
Home Win % 43.4%
Draw % 18.7%
Away Win % 37.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 396
Avg Brier Score 0.4756
Pick Accuracy 63.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4748
Market Brier 0.4771
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 396 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.0% 5.0% 160
10–20% 14.8% 12.1% 232
20–30% 24.9% 25.8% 322
30–40% 34.9% 33.9% 112
40–50% 44.4% 39.6% 96
50–60% 54.8% 61.8% 68
60–70% 65.2% 66.7% 48
70–80% 75.2% 81.5% 81
80–90% 84.8% 87.1% 62
90–100% 92.0% 100.0% 7
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
01.10.23 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 0-1 84% 92% -8.3 10% 11% -4.8 6% 6% -7.3
01.10.23 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 1-2 20% 24% -17.9 22% 25% -12.6 58% 62% -7.0
01.10.23 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 2-4 34% 38% -10.1 26% 29% -12.0 40% 45% -11.6
01.10.23 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 2-1 84% 90% -6.7 10% 12% -16.4 6% 7% -20.2
01.10.23 Everton LFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 1-2 44% 49% -9.3 25% 29% -11.9 31% 35% -12.8
01.10.23 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 0-2 8% 10% -21.1 14% 17% -15.9 78% 83% -6.5
06.10.23 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 2-2 34% 38% -11.5 26% 29% -11.9 40% 44% -9.9
08.10.23 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 0-2 48% 56% -14.2 25% 29% -11.2 27% 28% -2.9
08.10.23 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 1-0 38% 44% -14.0 25% 29% -11.0 36% 39% -7.3
08.10.23 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 2-0 27% 31% -13.9 26% 29% -13.2 48% 52% -8.2
08.10.23 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 1-1 42% 49% -14.0 25% 29% -10.8 33% 34% -5.5
08.10.23 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 3-1 67% 74% -9.3 19% 22% -12.0 14% 15% -11.2
14.10.23 Chelsea LFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 2-0 88% 94% -6.7 8% 9% -10.3 4% 4% -13.1
15.10.23 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 2-1 78% 85% -9.2 14% 16% -10.1 8% 9% -7.5
15.10.23 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 1-3 34% 40% -15.3 26% 30% -13.0 40% 42% -5.7
15.10.23 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 0-1 49% 56% -11.9 26% 29% -12.6 25% 27% -6.1
15.10.23 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 5-0 91% 97% -6.5 6% 7% -11.0 3% 3% -15.9
15.10.23 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 1-1 80% 86% -7.6 13% 14% -12.4 8% 10% -17.6
21.10.23 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 2-4 48% 56% -14.2 25% 28% -10.4 27% 28% -3.2
21.10.23 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 0-1 6% 7% -16.3 12% 14% -13.5 82% 88% -6.9
22.10.23 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 1-2 3% 3% -13.3 6% 6% -0.8 92% 98% -6.2
22.10.23 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 4-2 89% 95% -6.9 7% 8% -9.6 4% 5% -18.4
22.10.23 Everton LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 0-5 14% 16% -13.9 19% 22% -11.6 67% 74% -8.8
22.10.23 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 1-1 31% 35% -13.0 28% 32% -14.3 42% 44% -5.9
04.11.23 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 0-6 13% 15% -13.7 18% 20% -9.7 69% 75% -8.7
05.11.23 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 2-1 45% 51% -10.8 27% 31% -13.7 28% 31% -9.2
05.11.23 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 2-2 11% 13% -11.3 18% 20% -10.8 71% 78% -9.5
05.11.23 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 2-1 47% 51% -7.1 26% 30% -14.1 27% 31% -13.5
05.11.23 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 1-1 56% 64% -12.3 23% 26% -10.5 21% 23% -6.8
05.11.23 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 2-3 62% 71% -12.7 21% 23% -8.6 17% 17% -0.9
12.11.23 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 0-2 18% 21% -14.9 21% 24% -11.3 61% 67% -8.5
12.11.23 Everton LFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 0-3 6% 7% -14.2 11% 12% -8.6 82% 89% -7.7
12.11.23 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 2-6 9% 10% -16.9 15% 17% -12.6 77% 83% -7.7
12.11.23 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 0-1 85% 93% -8.0 9% 10% -7.0 6% 6% -14.4
12.11.23 Manchester United LFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 5-0 78% 86% -9.7 14% 15% -7.8 8% 8% -4.1
12.11.23 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 1-1 45% 51% -12.9 26% 29% -11.9 29% 31% -5.9
18.11.23 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 5-1 76% 82% -7.5 15% 17% -14.2 9% 11% -16.8
19.11.23 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 0-3 7% 9% -14.2 13% 15% -10.0 79% 86% -8.1
19.11.23 Everton LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 2-2 63% 72% -12.8 20% 22% -6.8 17% 17% -2.4
19.11.23 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 1-1 27% 31% -12.2 25% 28% -11.0 48% 53% -9.1
19.11.23 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 1-3 31% 36% -13.5 25% 29% -11.6 43% 48% -9.1
19.11.23 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 2-3 24% 28% -14.5 25% 29% -13.3 51% 56% -7.3
26.11.23 Arsenal LFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 3-0 87% 94% -7.5 8% 9% -8.5 4% 5% -14.4
26.11.23 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 1-2 56% 62% -10.5 23% 26% -12.5 21% 24% -11.7
26.11.23 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 0-2 7% 8% -14.7 12% 13% -8.6 82% 88% -7.7
26.11.23 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 5-2 88% 94% -6.9 8% 9% -10.6 4% 5% -18.6
26.11.23 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 4-0 53% 59% -10.5 24% 28% -12.6 23% 26% -10.0
26.11.23 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 7-0 76% 84% -9.8 15% 16% -7.3 9% 10% -6.7
09.12.23 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 2-1 78% 87% -9.8 13% 14% -3.7 8% 9% -4.3
10.12.23 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 4-1 38% 42% -10.8 26% 29% -11.9 36% 41% -10.8
10.12.23 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 2-2 41% 45% -10.4 26% 29% -11.7 33% 37% -10.1
10.12.23 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 1-1 73% 81% -9.8 18% 20% -12.3 10% 10% -4.9
10.12.23 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 0-4 21% 24% -12.9 23% 26% -11.2 56% 62% -9.9
10.12.23 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 0-1 41% 49% -15.3 26% 30% -12.6 32% 33% -3.4
16.12.23 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 1-0 13% 14% -10.1 19% 21% -10.1 68% 76% -10.4
17.12.23 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 1-0 54% 61% -11.3 23% 26% -11.7 22% 25% -10.5
17.12.23 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 0-3 3% 4% -23.8 7% 9% -18.5 90% 95% -5.5
17.12.23 Everton LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 1-4 5% 6% -13.9 10% 11% -7.9 85% 92% -7.8
17.12.23 Leicester City WFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 1-1 34% 38% -10.5 26% 29% -12.0 40% 45% -11.2
17.12.23 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 1-2 67% 74% -9.5 20% 22% -11.9 14% 15% -9.9
19.01.24 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 0-1 33% 34% -2.1 25% 28% -10.8 42% 51% -18.0
20.01.24 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 2-1 88% 93% -6.1 9% 11% -19.2 3% 4% -19.7
21.01.24 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 3-2 54% 59% -8.3 24% 27% -12.5 22% 26% -12.7
21.01.24 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 3-1 56% 61% -9.2 23% 26% -12.6 21% 24% -12.8
21.01.24 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 5-1 79% 86% -8.8 14% 15% -11.1 8% 9% -11.0
21.01.24 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 3-4 30% 35% -14.2 26% 29% -12.5 44% 48% -7.3
27.01.24 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 0-3 9% 11% -20.1 15% 17% -15.3 77% 83% -7.3
28.01.24 Bristol City WFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 1-2 25% 29% -13.2 25% 29% -13.0 50% 56% -9.4
28.01.24 Everton LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 0-1 44% 53% -15.8 26% 29% -11.8 30% 30% -1.8
28.01.24 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 0-2 8% 8% 0.1 15% 16% -5.6 77% 85% -10.1
28.01.24 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 2-1 65% 71% -9.6 20% 23% -11.8 15% 17% -9.6
28.01.24 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 0-2 14% 16% -10.2 19% 21% -8.8 67% 75% -10.7
03.02.24 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 2-2 67% 74% -9.4 20% 22% -12.2 13% 15% -9.5
04.02.24 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 3-0 81% 88% -8.9 12% 12% -2.9 8% 8% -8.3
04.02.24 Liverpool LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 1-1 38% 42% -10.6 26% 30% -12.7 36% 40% -10.5
04.02.24 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 2-0 85% 91% -6.5 10% 11% -13.3 5% 7% -19.0
04.02.24 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 2-0 78% 85% -9.1 14% 15% -10.0 8% 10% -11.5
04.02.24 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 2-1 7% 8% -7.8 14% 15% -7.4 79% 87% -9.3
16.02.24 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 0-1 43% 50% -14.5 26% 29% -12.1 31% 33% -5.8
17.02.24 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 3-1 58% 66% -11.7 22% 25% -10.9 19% 21% -7.7
18.02.24 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 0-1 32% 32% -1.8 26% 30% -13.0 42% 51% -16.9
18.02.24 Everton LFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 2-0 41% 39% 4.0 26% 30% -15.5 34% 43% -22.7
18.02.24 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 5-2 55% 61% -9.6 24% 27% -13.1 21% 24% -11.7
18.02.24 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 1-2 45% 51% -10.6 26% 29% -12.4 29% 32% -9.8
02.03.24 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Everton LFC (W) 2-1 86% 93% -7.6 9% 11% -10.2 5% 6% -14.7
03.03.24 Arsenal LFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 1-0 78% 86% -9.4 14% 15% -7.0 8% 9% -6.2
03.03.24 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 1-4 44% 49% -10.7 25% 29% -11.6 31% 35% -11.1
03.03.24 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 3-7 29% 32% -10.9 25% 29% -11.5 46% 51% -10.3
03.03.24 Leicester City WFC (W) vs Chelsea LFC (W) 0-4 9% 11% -17.4 14% 16% -11.1 77% 83% -7.8
03.03.24 West Ham United LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 1-1 17% 19% -11.6 22% 25% -12.4 61% 68% -9.9
15.03.24 Chelsea LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 3-1 39% 43% -10.2 27% 31% -12.8 34% 38% -9.6
16.03.24 Everton LFC (W) vs Aston Villa LFC (W) 1-2 31% 32% -4.3 26% 29% -11.7 43% 51% -14.5
17.03.24 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) vs Manchester City LFC (W) 1-4 7% 9% -13.9 13% 15% -9.8 79% 86% -8.2
17.03.24 Liverpool LFC (W) vs West Ham United LFC (W) 3-1 47% 53% -9.9 26% 30% -13.7 26% 29% -10.0
17.03.24 Manchester United LFC (W) vs Bristol City WFC (W) 2-0 89% 97% -8.5 7% 7% 3.3 4% 4% -1.7
17.03.24 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) vs Leicester City WFC (W) 1-0 54% 61% -11.2 24% 27% -11.6 23% 25% -9.5
23.03.24 Manchester City LFC (W) vs Manchester United LFC (W) 3-1 61% 69% -12.6 22% 24% -10.5 17% 18% -4.1
24.03.24 Aston Villa LFC (W) vs Arsenal LFC (W) 1-3 10% 11% -11.9 16% 17% -9.0 74% 82% -9.6
24.03.24 Bristol City WFC (W) vs Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 0-1 13% 14% -9.2 19% 21% -9.5 68% 76% -10.0
24.03.24 Everton LFC (W) vs Liverpool LFC (W) 0-0 28% 29% -2.3 26% 30% -12.9 46% 54% -15.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 396 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Chelsea LFC (W) 2323.96
2 Arsenal LFC (W) 2316.38
3 Manchester City LFC (W) 2200.25
4 London City Lionesses LFC (W) 2112.35
5 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 2044.54
6 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 2031.75
7 Manchester United LFC (W) 1953.10
8 Liverpool LFC (W) 1923.27
9 Everton LFC (W) 1884.32
10 Birmingham City LFC (W) 1847.63
11 Aston Villa LFC (W) 1809.41
12 West Ham United LFC (W) 1793.95
13 Crystal Palace LFC (W) 1689.34
14 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 1606.41

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Arsenal LFC (W) 2244.79
2 Chelsea LFC (W) 2182.83
3 Manchester City LFC (W) 2156.33
4 London City Lionesses LFC (W) 2079.21
5 Tottenham Hotspur LFC (W) 1966.68
6 Liverpool LFC (W) 1966.42
7 Brighton & Hove Albion LFC (W) 1948.52
8 Manchester United LFC (W) 1924.76
9 Birmingham City LFC (W) 1848.59
10 Aston Villa LFC (W) 1824.06
11 West Ham United LFC (W) 1773.90
12 Everton LFC (W) 1709.43
13 Crystal Palace LFC (W) 1668.43
14 Charlton Athletic WFC (W) 1664.70