ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 2899
Avg Goals 2.61
Avg Home 1.44
Avg Away 1.17
Home Win % 43.8%
Draw % 25.9%
Away Win % 30.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1580
Avg Brier Score 0.6195
Pick Accuracy 47.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6214
Market Brier 0.6192
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 1580 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.0% 0.0% 33
10–20% 16.6% 16.6% 379
20–30% 26.2% 26.8% 2179
30–40% 34.8% 33.4% 939
40–50% 44.5% 45.1% 657
50–60% 54.5% 54.8% 374
60–70% 64.0% 58.4% 125
70–80% 73.7% 81.6% 49
80–90% 82.6% 80.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton FC 1-2 33% 33% -0.3 28% 30% -6.8 39% 43% -9.4
05.08.23 Blackburn Rovers vs West Bromwich Albion 2-1 33% 35% -5.9 29% 31% -7.7 38% 40% -4.1
05.08.23 Bristol City vs Preston North End 1-1 47% 49% -2.8 27% 29% -7.5 25% 28% -8.5
05.08.23 Middlesbrough FC vs Millwall FC 0-1 43% 43% -1.3 28% 30% -7.7 29% 32% -9.8
05.08.23 Norwich City vs Hull City 2-1 56% 58% -3.6 24% 26% -5.9 20% 22% -8.7
05.08.23 Stoke City vs Rotherham United 4-1 58% 61% -4.6 24% 26% -7.3 18% 19% -6.6
05.08.23 Swansea City vs Birmingham City 1-1 53% 53% -0.7 26% 28% -8.0 22% 24% -11.4
05.08.23 Watford FC vs Queens Park Rangers 4-0 51% 54% -5.0 26% 28% -6.7 23% 24% -6.9
06.08.23 Leeds United vs Cardiff City 2-2 67% 68% -2.2 20% 22% -8.6 14% 16% -14.9
06.08.23 Leicester City vs Coventry City 2-1 56% 58% -2.5 24% 26% -6.8 20% 22% -11.1
12.08.23 Birmingham City vs Leeds United 1-0 28% 30% -8.5 27% 29% -6.6 46% 48% -4.3
12.08.23 Cardiff City vs Queens Park Rangers 1-2 50% 53% -5.0 27% 29% -7.0 23% 25% -6.3
12.08.23 Coventry City vs Middlesbrough FC 3-0 41% 43% -6.8 28% 29% -6.1 32% 33% -4.4
12.08.23 Huddersfield Town vs Leicester City 0-1 24% 26% -5.7 25% 26% -4.5 51% 54% -6.3
12.08.23 Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday 4-2 39% 42% -5.8 28% 30% -7.0 33% 34% -5.5
12.08.23 Ipswich Town vs Stoke City 2-0 45% 47% -3.7 27% 29% -5.9 28% 31% -8.0
12.08.23 Millwall FC vs Bristol City 0-1 50% 53% -4.5 27% 29% -6.7 23% 24% -5.4
12.08.23 Preston North End vs Sunderland FC 2-1 37% 38% -3.7 28% 29% -5.7 35% 38% -6.7
12.08.23 Rotherham United vs Blackburn Rovers 2-2 33% 34% -3.1 28% 29% -5.9 39% 42% -7.7
12.08.23 Southampton FC vs Norwich City 4-4 47% 50% -5.1 26% 28% -5.8 26% 29% -7.7
12.08.23 Watford FC vs Plymouth Argyle 0-0 57% 60% -4.8 24% 26% -6.0 19% 21% -7.5
12.08.23 West Bromwich Albion vs Swansea City 3-2 45% 48% -5.0 27% 29% -5.6 28% 29% -5.7
18.08.23 Leeds United vs West Bromwich Albion 1-1 45% 47% -3.6 27% 29% -7.0 28% 30% -8.2
19.08.23 Blackburn Rovers vs Hull City 1-2 51% 54% -5.7 26% 27% -5.4 23% 25% -6.1
19.08.23 Bristol City vs Birmingham City 0-2 42% 43% -3.1 29% 31% -7.7 29% 31% -5.6
19.08.23 Leicester City vs Cardiff City 2-1 62% 65% -4.6 22% 24% -6.0 16% 17% -7.8
19.08.23 Middlesbrough FC vs Huddersfield Town 1-1 55% 56% -3.3 25% 26% -6.2 21% 23% -9.0
19.08.23 Plymouth Argyle vs Southampton FC 1-2 22% 22% 1.1 24% 25% -2.2 53% 58% -9.2
19.08.23 Queens Park Rangers vs Ipswich Town 0-1 21% 21% -1.2 26% 27% -5.6 54% 58% -6.8
19.08.23 Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston North End 0-1 38% 38% 1.1 29% 31% -7.5 33% 36% -9.4
19.08.23 Stoke City vs Watford FC 1-0 43% 45% -6.0 28% 30% -7.4 29% 31% -5.1
19.08.23 Swansea City vs Coventry City 1-1 42% 43% -3.6 27% 29% -6.5 31% 33% -8.2
20.08.23 Norwich City vs Millwall FC 3-1 48% 51% -6.0 26% 28% -5.2 25% 27% -4.5
25.08.23 Hull City vs Bristol City 1-1 41% 43% -4.7 28% 29% -5.6 31% 32% -4.6
26.08.23 Birmingham City vs Plymouth Argyle 2-1 50% 53% -4.5 26% 28% -5.8 24% 25% -5.8
26.08.23 Cardiff City vs Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 44% 47% -5.0 28% 31% -8.2 28% 29% -6.2
26.08.23 Huddersfield Town vs Norwich City 0-4 26% 27% -3.2 26% 28% -5.1 47% 51% -7.4
26.08.23 Millwall FC vs Stoke City 1-0 39% 41% -4.1 29% 32% -8.8 31% 33% -5.8
26.08.23 Preston North End vs Swansea City 2-1 41% 42% -3.8 29% 31% -8.3 31% 33% -7.7
26.08.23 Rotherham United vs Leicester City 1-2 17% 17% -3.0 23% 24% -4.8 60% 63% -5.4
26.08.23 Southampton FC vs Queens Park Rangers 2-1 71% 74% -3.8 18% 19% -4.5 11% 12% -8.5
26.08.23 West Bromwich Albion vs Middlesbrough FC 4-2 42% 44% -4.8 28% 29% -6.3 30% 32% -6.5
27.08.23 Watford FC vs Blackburn Rovers 0-1 45% 47% -2.7 27% 29% -6.6 28% 31% -10.1
02.09.23 Birmingham City vs Millwall FC 1-1 38% 41% -6.5 29% 32% -8.6 32% 33% -2.9
02.09.23 Coventry City vs Watford FC 3-3 44% 47% -5.7 27% 29% -6.5 29% 30% -5.5
02.09.23 Ipswich Town vs Cardiff City 3-2 62% 65% -4.4 22% 23% -4.3 16% 17% -6.7
02.09.23 Leeds United vs Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 65% 68% -4.6 20% 21% -3.4 14% 15% -7.0
02.09.23 Leicester City vs Hull City 0-1 63% 65% -4.1 22% 23% -6.2 16% 17% -10.0
02.09.23 Middlesbrough FC vs Queens Park Rangers 0-2 61% 63% -3.1 22% 24% -7.4 17% 19% -12.5
02.09.23 Plymouth Argyle vs Blackburn Rovers 3-0 36% 38% -5.4 26% 27% -3.6 38% 41% -8.0
02.09.23 Rotherham United vs Norwich City 2-1 21% 22% -3.7 24% 25% -3.3 54% 58% -6.4
02.09.23 Stoke City vs Preston North End 0-2 50% 51% -3.0 27% 29% -7.9 23% 25% -7.4
02.09.23 Sunderland FC vs Southampton FC 5-0 34% 36% -6.2 27% 29% -5.0 39% 41% -5.0
02.09.23 Swansea City vs Bristol City 1-2 44% 45% -4.1 28% 29% -6.3 29% 31% -6.3
02.09.23 West Bromwich Albion vs Huddersfield Town 1-2 56% 58% -3.8 24% 26% -7.2 20% 22% -9.6
15.09.23 Southampton FC vs Leicester City 1-4 39% 40% -2.4 27% 29% -5.0 34% 37% -8.7
16.09.23 Blackburn Rovers vs Middlesbrough FC 2-1 39% 42% -6.5 27% 28% -4.5 35% 37% -6.8
16.09.23 Bristol City vs West Bromwich Albion 0-0 40% 43% -8.3 28% 31% -7.4 32% 32% -1.9
16.09.23 Cardiff City vs Swansea City 2-0 39% 40% -3.7 28% 30% -6.4 33% 35% -5.6
16.09.23 Norwich City vs Stoke City 1-0 48% 51% -6.0 26% 28% -4.9 25% 26% -3.6
16.09.23 Preston North End vs Plymouth Argyle 2-1 48% 49% -2.1 27% 29% -7.0 26% 29% -10.1
16.09.23 Queens Park Rangers vs Sunderland FC 1-3 29% 31% -6.0 26% 28% -4.6 44% 47% -5.1
16.09.23 Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich Town 0-1 25% 27% -5.7 26% 28% -5.3 48% 51% -4.5
16.09.23 Watford FC vs Birmingham City 2-0 47% 49% -4.0 28% 29% -6.5 26% 27% -5.0
17.09.23 Millwall FC vs Leeds United 0-3 30% 30% -1.4 28% 29% -6.1 43% 47% -8.6
19.09.23 Bristol City vs Plymouth Argyle 4-1 58% 62% -6.6 23% 24% -2.8 19% 19% -2.8
19.09.23 Cardiff City vs Coventry City 3-2 35% 38% -7.0 29% 31% -7.3 36% 38% -3.5
19.09.23 Preston North End vs Birmingham City 2-1 41% 42% -3.4 30% 32% -8.5 30% 31% -4.9
19.09.23 Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City 1-1 35% 37% -5.2 29% 31% -7.5 36% 38% -4.6
19.09.23 Sheffield Wednesday vs Middlesbrough FC 1-1 29% 30% -4.6 27% 29% -5.8 44% 48% -7.2
19.09.23 Southampton FC vs Ipswich Town 0-1 42% 43% -3.6 27% 29% -5.5 31% 34% -8.3
20.09.23 Blackburn Rovers vs Sunderland FC 1-3 40% 43% -6.8 26% 27% -3.4 34% 36% -6.0
20.09.23 Huddersfield Town vs Stoke City 2-2 33% 35% -5.2 29% 31% -7.1 38% 40% -4.7
20.09.23 Millwall FC vs Rotherham United 3-0 58% 59% -1.4 25% 28% -10.1 17% 19% -10.7
20.09.23 Norwich City vs Leicester City 0-2 39% 41% -4.5 27% 29% -4.5 34% 36% -5.5
20.09.23 Watford FC vs West Bromwich Albion 2-2 42% 44% -4.9 28% 30% -6.7 29% 31% -4.3
22.09.23 Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers 0-0 52% 54% -4.4 27% 29% -8.4 21% 23% -5.8
23.09.23 Ipswich Town vs Blackburn Rovers 4-3 57% 60% -5.0 24% 25% -5.4 20% 22% -8.7
23.09.23 Leeds United vs Watford FC 3-0 55% 57% -4.3 24% 26% -5.4 21% 23% -8.8
23.09.23 Leicester City vs Bristol City 1-0 57% 60% -5.0 24% 25% -4.5 20% 21% -6.1
23.09.23 Middlesbrough FC vs Southampton FC 2-1 42% 44% -5.8 27% 28% -4.6 32% 34% -6.7
23.09.23 Plymouth Argyle vs Norwich City 6-2 27% 29% -8.3 25% 27% -4.6 48% 50% -4.8
23.09.23 Rotherham United vs Preston North End 1-1 29% 29% -2.1 29% 31% -7.8 42% 45% -6.7
23.09.23 Swansea City vs Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 47% 49% -3.8 27% 29% -6.6 26% 27% -5.2
23.09.23 West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall FC 0-0 46% 49% -5.0 28% 30% -7.7 26% 27% -4.9
24.09.23 Stoke City vs Hull City 1-3 47% 49% -2.8 26% 28% -5.3 26% 29% -8.1
24.09.23 Sunderland FC vs Cardiff City 0-1 50% 52% -4.3 26% 28% -6.1 24% 26% -7.6
29.09.23 Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland FC 0-3 30% 31% -2.7 28% 29% -5.8 42% 45% -6.8
30.09.23 Bristol City vs Stoke City 2-3 41% 43% -6.0 28% 29% -6.2 32% 33% -5.5
30.09.23 Cardiff City vs Rotherham United 2-0 59% 62% -5.1 24% 26% -6.4 17% 17% -4.0
30.09.23 Millwall FC vs Swansea City 0-3 45% 45% -2.1 28% 31% -8.7 27% 30% -9.6
30.09.23 Norwich City vs Birmingham City 2-0 50% 53% -6.9 26% 28% -5.4 24% 25% -3.2
30.09.23 Preston North End vs West Bromwich Albion 0-4 38% 40% -6.1 30% 32% -8.4 33% 34% -2.9
30.09.23 Queens Park Rangers vs Coventry City 1-3 32% 34% -6.8 28% 30% -7.2 40% 42% -4.7
30.09.23 Southampton FC vs Leeds United 3-1 34% 35% -3.2 27% 28% -4.4 39% 43% -9.2
30.09.23 Watford FC vs Middlesbrough FC 2-3 40% 42% -5.0 28% 29% -5.9 33% 35% -6.0
01.10.23 Blackburn Rovers vs Leicester City 1-4 28% 29% -3.8 26% 26% -3.0 46% 50% -7.7
03.10.23 Birmingham City vs Huddersfield Town 4-1 46% 48% -2.6 28% 30% -7.9 26% 28% -7.3
03.10.23 Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City 2-0 51% 53% -4.7 26% 28% -6.4 23% 25% -6.9
03.10.23 Plymouth Argyle vs Millwall FC 0-2 38% 41% -6.9 27% 29% -4.9 35% 36% -4.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 1580 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

24 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 West Ham United 2275.49
2 Middlesbrough FC 2269.59
3 Wolverhampton Wanderers 2203.52
4 Southampton FC 2166.08
5 Norwich City 2148.09
6 Wrexham FC 2139.47
7 Birmingham City 2123.02
8 Swansea City 2114.28
9 West Bromwich Albion 2098.77
10 Queens Park Rangers 2093.78
11 Millwall FC 2090.35
12 Sheffield United 2088.69
13 Burnley FC 2072.45
14 Bristol City 2070.41
15 Stoke City 2070.12
16 Cardiff City 2065.78
17 Portsmouth FC 2055.92
18 Blackburn Rovers 2020.17
19 Lincoln City 2000.21
20 Charlton Athletic 1996.47
21 Bolton Wanderers 1986.39
22 Derby County 1981.31
23 Preston North End 1980.11
24 Watford FC 1960.58

Away Ratings

24 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Middlesbrough FC 2198.52
2 West Ham United 2178.20
3 Wolverhampton Wanderers 2132.38
4 Southampton FC 2095.27
5 West Bromwich Albion 2093.12
6 Birmingham City 2073.39
7 Norwich City 2057.44
8 Swansea City 2052.47
9 Queens Park Rangers 2048.53
10 Cardiff City 2039.10
11 Wrexham FC 2034.81
12 Burnley FC 2031.81
13 Millwall FC 2029.83
14 Bristol City 2021.26
15 Sheffield United 2011.78
16 Portsmouth FC 2008.88
17 Stoke City 1986.00
18 Blackburn Rovers 1970.67
19 Watford FC 1942.38
20 Bolton Wanderers 1934.50
21 Charlton Athletic 1925.27
22 Derby County 1923.80
23 Lincoln City 1919.51
24 Preston North End 1914.02