ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1208
Avg Goals 3.14
Avg Home 1.66
Avg Away 1.49
Home Win % 43.3%
Draw % 22.0%
Away Win % 34.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1208
Avg Brier Score 0.6145
Pick Accuracy 49.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6164
Market Brier 0.6142
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 10
Value Bet Hit Rate 20.0%
ROI (flat stake) 37.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 90.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 9 of 1208 matches had at least one · staked 10.00, profit 3.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 9 22.2% 9.00 4.75 52.8%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.7% 0.0% 3
10–20% 17.3% 14.5% 166
20–30% 24.8% 24.4% 1661
30–40% 35.1% 33.6% 801
40–50% 44.6% 45.8% 637
50–60% 54.5% 57.2% 276
60–70% 63.9% 69.6% 69
70–80% 73.3% 100.0% 10
80–90% 80.7% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
12.08.23 Billericay Town FC vs Kingstonian FC 1-0 64% 74% -13.4 20% 22% -8.2 16% 16% 2.5
12.08.23 Canvey Island FC vs Haringey Borough 3-2 61% 68% -11.0 21% 24% -11.3 18% 19% -5.7
12.08.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Potters Bar Town 5-0 50% 56% -11.3 24% 28% -13.1 26% 29% -8.9
12.08.23 Chatham Town vs Bognor Regis Town 1-0 38% 44% -15.2 25% 29% -13.0 37% 40% -6.4
12.08.23 Hashtag United vs Dulwich Hamlet 2-2 41% 47% -12.4 25% 29% -12.8 34% 38% -8.9
12.08.23 Hastings United vs Cheshunt FC 1-1 41% 47% -11.4 25% 29% -12.9 34% 38% -10.1
12.08.23 Lewes FC vs Cray Wanderers FC 1-0 42% 48% -12.7 25% 29% -12.7 34% 36% -7.9
12.08.23 Margate FC vs Whitehawk FC 2-1 40% 44% -10.1 25% 29% -13.0 35% 40% -12.0
12.08.23 Wingate & Finchley FC vs Folkestone Invicta 0-4 35% 39% -11.4 26% 29% -13.2 40% 43% -8.6
15.08.23 Bognor Regis Town vs Carshalton Athletic 3-3 40% 45% -12.3 27% 31% -15.1 34% 36% -7.6
15.08.23 Cheshunt FC vs Billericay Town FC 0-1 38% 42% -10.9 27% 31% -14.8 36% 39% -8.7
15.08.23 Concord Rangers FC vs Hashtag United 1-4 37% 42% -12.2 27% 31% -14.9 36% 39% -7.3
15.08.23 Dulwich Hamlet vs Canvey Island FC 4-1 39% 44% -11.8 26% 29% -13.2 35% 38% -8.3
15.08.23 Folkestone Invicta vs Chatham Town 2-3 45% 51% -10.0 25% 29% -13.2 30% 33% -10.8
15.08.23 Haringey Borough vs Wingate & Finchley FC 1-2 43% 50% -13.9 26% 30% -14.8 31% 33% -6.7
15.08.23 Potters Bar Town vs Enfield Town FC 0-2 23% 24% -2.0 23% 26% -11.1 53% 62% -13.7
15.08.23 Whitehawk FC vs Hastings United 0-0 28% 29% -5.7 25% 29% -13.5 47% 53% -12.0
16.08.23 Cray Wanderers FC vs Horsham FC 1-3 42% 47% -10.8 26% 29% -12.9 33% 36% -7.9
16.08.23 Kingstonian FC vs Lewes FC 1-3 23% 25% -8.7 24% 29% -14.3 53% 58% -9.9
19.08.23 AFC Hornchurch vs Carshalton Athletic 1-1 58% 66% -12.2 22% 25% -11.7 20% 21% -5.0
19.08.23 Bognor Regis Town vs Hashtag United 0-0 38% 44% -14.9 26% 30% -14.5 36% 38% -5.7
19.08.23 Cheshunt FC vs Chatham Town 1-2 38% 40% -5.3 26% 30% -14.5 36% 43% -14.9
19.08.23 Cray Wanderers FC vs Billericay Town FC 0-1 39% 43% -10.5 25% 29% -13.6 36% 40% -10.8
19.08.23 Dulwich Hamlet vs Hastings United 1-2 55% 65% -14.7 22% 24% -9.2 23% 23% -1.1
19.08.23 Folkestone Invicta vs Enfield Town FC 1-2 39% 43% -10.1 26% 30% -14.4 35% 39% -10.8
19.08.23 Kingstonian FC vs Canvey Island FC 2-1 22% 24% -9.5 23% 27% -13.4 55% 62% -10.3
19.08.23 Potters Bar Town vs Lewes FC 1-2 20% 20% -2.1 21% 24% -9.7 59% 68% -13.4
19.08.23 Whitehawk FC vs Wingate & Finchley FC 3-3 37% 42% -10.5 25% 29% -13.5 37% 42% -10.6
25.08.23 Margate FC vs Cheshunt FC 1-2 38% 42% -9.1 25% 29% -13.8 36% 42% -12.9
26.08.23 Billericay Town FC vs Whitehawk FC 1-3 62% 71% -12.6 21% 24% -12.0 16% 16% 0.8
26.08.23 Canvey Island FC vs Bognor Regis Town 1-3 47% 53% -11.4 25% 29% -13.2 28% 30% -8.2
26.08.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Haringey Borough 1-0 54% 61% -12.8 24% 27% -11.8 23% 24% -3.5
26.08.23 Chatham Town vs Potters Bar Town 2-0 59% 67% -12.5 22% 25% -11.8 19% 20% -3.9
26.08.23 Enfield Town FC vs Cray Wanderers FC 2-0 46% 53% -13.6 25% 29% -12.7 29% 30% -4.7
26.08.23 Hashtag United vs Folkestone Invicta 0-0 49% 56% -13.6 24% 27% -11.4 27% 29% -4.5
26.08.23 Horsham FC vs Dulwich Hamlet 3-2 38% 43% -12.5 25% 29% -12.4 37% 40% -7.7
26.08.23 Lewes FC vs AFC Hornchurch 2-2 36% 41% -11.8 25% 29% -12.4 39% 43% -8.4
26.08.23 Wingate & Finchley FC vs Kingstonian FC 2-1 49% 56% -12.6 25% 29% -12.8 27% 28% -4.5
28.08.23 AFC Hornchurch vs Hashtag United 3-0 56% 65% -14.1 23% 25% -9.9 21% 21% 1.2
28.08.23 Bognor Regis Town vs Lewes FC 3-3 33% 36% -10.2 25% 29% -13.4 42% 47% -10.0
28.08.23 Cheshunt FC vs Wingate & Finchley FC 0-1 49% 56% -12.8 24% 28% -12.3 26% 28% -5.1
28.08.23 Concord Rangers FC vs Canvey Island FC 1-3 31% 34% -7.8 26% 29% -13.3 43% 49% -11.4
28.08.23 Dulwich Hamlet vs Chatham Town 2-5 52% 60% -12.3 24% 27% -11.7 24% 26% -5.3
28.08.23 Folkestone Invicta vs Margate FC 2-0 52% 60% -13.4 24% 27% -11.3 25% 26% -3.4
28.08.23 Kingstonian FC vs Carshalton Athletic 2-3 30% 33% -10.9 26% 31% -15.1 44% 49% -9.4
28.08.23 Potters Bar Town vs Billericay Town FC 1-3 20% 22% -9.0 22% 25% -12.4 58% 65% -10.8
28.08.23 Whitehawk FC vs Horsham FC 3-1 24% 26% -6.5 24% 27% -12.3 52% 60% -12.1
09.09.23 Canvey Island FC vs Whitehawk FC 1-2 47% 50% -6.9 24% 28% -12.8 29% 34% -13.8
09.09.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Concord Rangers FC 2-0 56% 66% -15.0 23% 25% -9.9 22% 21% 2.3
09.09.23 Chatham Town vs Cray Wanderers FC 1-5 61% 74% -17.3 20% 21% -4.3 19% 17% 10.8
09.09.23 Hashtag United vs Kingstonian FC 2-2 60% 70% -13.8 21% 24% -10.1 18% 18% 0.8
09.09.23 Horsham FC vs Cheshunt FC 1-0 48% 53% -11.0 24% 27% -11.5 29% 31% -8.8
09.09.23 Lewes FC vs Folkestone Invicta 1-3 49% 56% -13.1 24% 28% -12.2 27% 28% -4.5
09.09.23 Margate FC vs Potters Bar Town 2-1 51% 57% -11.4 24% 27% -12.1 26% 28% -7.8
09.09.23 Wingate & Finchley FC vs AFC Hornchurch 1-4 20% 22% -8.5 21% 24% -10.9 59% 66% -11.1
16.09.23 Cheshunt FC vs Bognor Regis Town 3-1 41% 47% -12.0 25% 29% -12.4 34% 37% -8.1
16.09.23 Potters Bar Town vs Chatham Town 0-0 20% 22% -7.5 21% 24% -10.5 59% 66% -11.5
23.09.23 Canvey Island FC vs Margate FC 4-1 52% 60% -12.9 23% 26% -11.5 24% 26% -5.4
23.09.23 Chatham Town vs Lewes FC 3-0 44% 52% -14.2 24% 28% -12.2 31% 33% -6.5
23.09.23 Cray Wanderers FC vs Cheshunt FC 2-1 41% 48% -13.4 25% 29% -12.6 34% 36% -7.0
23.09.23 Dulwich Hamlet vs Concord Rangers FC 2-0 55% 64% -13.0 22% 25% -10.1 22% 23% -2.8
23.09.23 Enfield Town FC vs Carshalton Athletic 0-3 47% 54% -13.6 24% 28% -11.9 29% 30% -4.8
23.09.23 Folkestone Invicta vs Whitehawk FC 1-1 42% 45% -8.0 24% 28% -12.3 34% 39% -13.7
23.09.23 Hashtag United vs Wingate & Finchley FC 2-0 55% 64% -13.2 23% 26% -10.4 22% 22% 0.1
23.09.23 Hastings United vs Potters Bar Town 0-1 69% 79% -13.1 18% 19% -5.8 13% 12% 7.9
23.09.23 Horsham FC vs Billericay Town FC 0-0 37% 42% -10.8 25% 29% -13.5 37% 42% -10.3
25.09.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Hashtag United 0-1 47% 56% -14.7 25% 29% -12.4 28% 28% -0.7
26.09.23 AFC Hornchurch vs Dulwich Hamlet 2-1 57% 66% -13.9 22% 24% -9.1 21% 22% -1.9
26.09.23 Lewes FC vs Hastings United 3-1 45% 52% -13.1 25% 29% -12.9 30% 32% -6.7
26.09.23 Potters Bar Town vs Folkestone Invicta 3-3 23% 25% -8.3 23% 26% -11.6 54% 61% -11.3
30.09.23 Cheshunt FC vs Dulwich Hamlet 2-1 36% 41% -11.8 25% 29% -13.5 39% 43% -9.3
30.09.23 Concord Rangers FC vs Folkestone Invicta 2-1 31% 34% -7.8 25% 29% -12.7 44% 50% -12.4
30.09.23 Kingstonian FC vs Cray Wanderers FC 3-0 30% 34% -10.6 24% 28% -12.0 45% 50% -9.5
30.09.23 Potters Bar Town vs Bognor Regis Town 1-1 26% 29% -10.8 24% 28% -12.9 50% 55% -9.3
03.10.23 Billericay Town FC vs Canvey Island FC 0-1 51% 59% -12.5 24% 27% -11.8 25% 27% -6.2
03.10.23 Concord Rangers FC vs Cray Wanderers FC 0-3 39% 45% -13.2 24% 28% -11.9 36% 39% -8.1
09.10.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Canvey Island FC 0-3 43% 48% -9.6 25% 29% -14.3 32% 36% -12.7
10.10.23 Billericay Town FC vs Dulwich Hamlet 3-0 49% 57% -14.5 24% 28% -11.9 27% 27% -1.4
10.10.23 Whitehawk FC vs Haringey Borough 2-1 55% 64% -13.1 23% 26% -10.9 22% 22% -2.0
14.10.23 Chatham Town vs Carshalton Athletic 2-2 45% 51% -12.9 25% 29% -13.2 31% 33% -8.3
14.10.23 Dulwich Hamlet vs Kingstonian FC 3-2 59% 68% -12.9 21% 24% -10.2 19% 20% -3.0
14.10.23 Folkestone Invicta vs Cheshunt FC 2-1 44% 50% -11.1 24% 27% -11.3 32% 35% -9.9
14.10.23 Haringey Borough vs Potters Bar Town 0-3 46% 54% -14.4 24% 27% -10.9 30% 31% -3.7
14.10.23 Hastings United vs Wingate & Finchley FC 2-3 54% 63% -14.1 23% 26% -11.2 22% 22% 0.2
15.10.23 Cray Wanderers FC vs AFC Hornchurch 1-4 24% 27% -9.0 24% 27% -12.6 52% 58% -10.9
17.10.23 Margate FC vs Chatham Town 2-0 33% 38% -13.6 24% 28% -12.2 43% 47% -7.5
17.10.23 Wingate & Finchley FC vs Horsham FC 2-0 26% 28% -7.3 23% 26% -11.3 51% 58% -12.4
21.10.23 Billericay Town FC vs Hastings United 2-0 55% 65% -14.5 23% 26% -10.6 22% 22% 0.9
21.10.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Horsham FC 1-2 38% 42% -8.8 26% 30% -14.8 36% 42% -13.2
21.10.23 Cheshunt FC vs Haringey Borough 0-2 56% 65% -13.0 22% 25% -10.6 22% 22% -3.2
21.10.23 Concord Rangers FC vs Chatham Town 1-3 23% 25% -8.7 23% 27% -13.2 54% 61% -11.4
21.10.23 Kingstonian FC vs Folkestone Invicta 3-0 30% 33% -8.8 24% 28% -12.1 45% 51% -11.9
21.10.23 Lewes FC vs Enfield Town FC 4-0 44% 50% -11.9 25% 29% -12.8 31% 34% -8.4
21.10.23 Margate FC vs Hashtag United 1-1 37% 43% -13.4 25% 29% -13.5 38% 41% -7.6
21.10.23 Potters Bar Town vs Cray Wanderers FC 1-1 31% 35% -11.7 24% 28% -12.5 45% 50% -10.1
21.10.23 Whitehawk FC vs Dulwich Hamlet 1-1 40% 47% -14.2 25% 29% -12.8 35% 38% -6.8
21.10.23 Wingate & Finchley FC vs Canvey Island FC 6-2 32% 35% -9.7 24% 27% -11.2 44% 50% -11.4
23.10.23 Carshalton Athletic vs Lewes FC 1-1 38% 42% -10.0 25% 29% -13.8 37% 42% -12.0
23.10.23 Hashtag United vs Chatham Town 1-1 35% 40% -12.3 26% 29% -13.2 39% 43% -7.4
24.10.23 AFC Hornchurch vs Folkestone Invicta 4-2 67% 78% -14.3 19% 20% -6.0 14% 13% 10.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 1208 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

26 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Aveley FC 1655.85
2 Dartford FC 1614.94
3 Eastbourne Borough 1607.79
4 Chatham Town 1596.69
5 St. Albans City 1584.41
6 Carshalton Athletic 1579.43
7 Dulwich Hamlet 1578.08
8 Enfield Town FC 1575.14
9 Welling United 1573.76
10 Brentwood Town 1548.14
11 Leatherhead FC 1529.06
12 Maldon & Tiptree FC 1520.97
13 Ramsgate FC 1504.12
14 Burgess Hill Town 1503.33
15 Stanway Rovers 1483.97
16 Lewes FC 1482.40
17 Cray Wanderers FC 1479.35
18 Whyteleafe FC 1459.47
19 Cray Valley PM FC 1455.63
20 Hashtag United 1448.97
21 Wingate & Finchley FC 1446.42
22 Three Bridges 1444.74
23 Cheshunt FC 1392.50
24 Whitehawk FC 1391.97
25 Potters Bar Town 1382.86
26 Canvey Island FC 1373.38

Away Ratings

26 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Aveley FC 1604.39
2 Chatham Town 1597.05
3 Welling United 1588.61
4 Carshalton Athletic 1570.28
5 Leatherhead FC 1547.17
6 Dartford FC 1537.02
7 Eastbourne Borough 1521.83
8 Dulwich Hamlet 1507.12
9 St. Albans City 1504.15
10 Burgess Hill Town 1497.17
11 Enfield Town FC 1496.96
12 Brentwood Town 1495.76
13 Ramsgate FC 1485.40
14 Cray Wanderers FC 1475.29
15 Lewes FC 1438.38
16 Maldon & Tiptree FC 1410.98
17 Cheshunt FC 1402.96
18 Hashtag United 1401.24
19 Wingate & Finchley FC 1398.53
20 Cray Valley PM FC 1394.43
21 Three Bridges 1390.58
22 Whyteleafe FC 1387.49
23 Stanway Rovers 1354.42
24 Whitehawk FC 1333.94
25 Canvey Island FC 1301.95
26 Potters Bar Town 1300.48