ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1458
Avg Goals 2.76
Avg Home 1.52
Avg Away 1.24
Home Win % 43.8%
Draw % 23.2%
Away Win % 33.1%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1458
Avg Brier Score 0.6158
Pick Accuracy 50.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6155
Market Brier 0.6162
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 25.0%
ROI (flat stake) 93.8%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 1458 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit 3.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 50.0% 2.00 5.75 287.5%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 0.0% 17
10–20% 16.6% 18.4% 228
20–30% 26.0% 24.3% 2105
30–40% 34.9% 36.0% 880
40–50% 44.6% 45.6% 708
50–60% 54.0% 56.7% 323
60–70% 63.7% 68.2% 85
70–80% 73.6% 75.0% 20
80–90% 84.4% 100.0% 8
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Banbury United vs Spennymoor Town 0-3 34% 38% -11.7 27% 31% -12.7 39% 43% -10.9
05.08.23 Bishops Stortford vs Chester FC 2-0 29% 30% -3.3 27% 31% -12.1 44% 52% -15.8
05.08.23 Buxton FC vs Boston United 1-1 41% 44% -8.1 27% 31% -12.8 32% 37% -13.8
05.08.23 Chorley FC vs Brackley Town 1-1 40% 44% -10.8 28% 32% -13.8 33% 37% -12.1
05.08.23 Darlington FC vs Curzon Ashton 1-3 45% 52% -12.2 27% 30% -11.9 28% 30% -8.2
05.08.23 Kings Lynn vs Hereford FC 2-2 51% 54% -6.1 25% 29% -13.8 24% 29% -16.4
05.08.23 Peterborough Sports FC vs Scarborough Athletic 1-0 37% 41% -9.8 27% 31% -11.8 36% 41% -11.7
05.08.23 South Shields vs Alfreton Town 3-1 42% 45% -8.0 27% 31% -12.3 31% 35% -12.2
05.08.23 Southport FC vs Warrington Town 0-4 40% 47% -13.4 27% 31% -11.7 33% 35% -7.2
12.08.23 Alfreton Town vs Southport FC 3-1 49% 56% -11.9 26% 29% -11.9 25% 28% -9.4
12.08.23 Boston United vs South Shields 3-1 38% 42% -9.9 27% 31% -12.2 35% 40% -12.7
12.08.23 Brackley Town vs Buxton FC 2-1 48% 54% -10.9 27% 30% -12.3 25% 28% -9.0
12.08.23 Chester FC vs Kings Lynn 3-0 42% 47% -9.3 27% 30% -12.3 31% 36% -14.0
12.08.23 Curzon Ashton vs Rushall Olympic FC 1-1 46% 53% -12.9 26% 29% -11.4 28% 30% -8.8
12.08.23 Farsley Celtic vs Chorley FC 1-1 33% 36% -8.8 27% 31% -12.1 40% 47% -13.2
12.08.23 Hereford FC vs Darlington FC 1-0 43% 48% -10.7 27% 30% -11.7 31% 34% -10.9
12.08.23 Scarborough Athletic vs Banbury United 3-0 49% 55% -10.6 26% 29% -11.8 25% 28% -10.1
12.08.23 Scunthorpe United vs Peterborough Sports FC 1-1 64% 74% -12.9 21% 22% -6.7 15% 15% -1.1
12.08.23 Spennymoor Town vs Tamworth FC 1-4 43% 48% -8.9 26% 29% -11.5 31% 36% -14.3
15.08.23 Alfreton Town vs Peterborough Sports FC 2-1 51% 57% -11.4 26% 29% -12.0 24% 26% -8.3
15.08.23 Chester FC vs Chorley FC 0-0 42% 45% -6.7 27% 31% -13.1 30% 36% -14.8
15.08.23 Curzon Ashton vs Kings Lynn 1-1 35% 40% -12.3 27% 31% -11.9 38% 42% -9.3
15.08.23 Farsley Celtic vs South Shields 1-1 30% 32% -7.0 27% 30% -11.8 43% 51% -14.3
15.08.23 Hereford FC vs Rushall Olympic FC 1-0 50% 57% -11.7 26% 29% -11.9 24% 26% -7.8
15.08.23 Scarborough Athletic vs Blyth Spartans 1-0 45% 50% -9.8 26% 29% -10.3 29% 33% -12.2
15.08.23 Scunthorpe United vs Darlington FC 4-0 60% 68% -12.8 22% 24% -7.8 18% 18% -2.1
15.08.23 Spennymoor Town vs Southport FC 5-1 54% 62% -13.1 24% 27% -9.3 22% 23% -5.3
15.08.23 Warrington Town vs Buxton FC 1-0 38% 42% -9.6 27% 30% -11.6 36% 41% -12.8
19.08.23 Banbury United vs Chester FC 1-0 23% 24% -4.1 26% 29% -11.7 51% 59% -13.9
19.08.23 Blyth Spartans vs Hereford FC 2-1 36% 40% -8.8 28% 32% -12.9 35% 40% -11.4
19.08.23 Buxton FC vs Curzon Ashton 1-1 46% 51% -11.2 27% 31% -12.5 27% 29% -7.9
19.08.23 Chorley FC vs Warrington Town 0-1 51% 57% -11.2 25% 29% -11.5 24% 27% -10.1
19.08.23 Darlington FC vs Brackley Town 1-1 27% 30% -10.7 27% 31% -12.7 46% 51% -10.2
19.08.23 Kings Lynn vs Gloucester City 1-1 51% 57% -11.2 25% 28% -10.4 24% 27% -9.8
19.08.23 Peterborough Sports FC vs Spennymoor Town 0-2 31% 36% -12.7 27% 31% -12.7 42% 45% -8.6
19.08.23 South Shields vs Scarborough Athletic 1-0 46% 51% -10.6 26% 29% -10.4 29% 32% -11.5
19.08.23 Southport FC vs Boston United 0-2 30% 33% -8.8 27% 30% -11.6 43% 49% -12.3
19.08.23 Tamworth FC vs Alfreton Town 0-1 52% 59% -11.9 25% 29% -11.0 23% 24% -6.7
26.08.23 Alfreton Town vs Darlington FC 2-3 44% 50% -12.1 27% 31% -12.5 29% 31% -8.1
26.08.23 Brackley Town vs Southport FC 0-0 62% 69% -11.4 22% 24% -9.2 17% 18% -7.5
26.08.23 Buxton FC vs Blyth Spartans 3-0 46% 51% -9.8 27% 31% -13.1 27% 31% -12.2
26.08.23 Chorley FC vs Kings Lynn 3-1 41% 45% -9.9 27% 31% -12.0 32% 35% -10.1
26.08.23 Curzon Ashton vs Scunthorpe United 1-0 22% 23% -4.7 25% 29% -10.8 52% 60% -11.8
26.08.23 Hereford FC vs Peterborough Sports FC 0-1 48% 53% -10.7 27% 31% -13.2 26% 29% -10.5
26.08.23 Scarborough Athletic vs Chester FC 1-0 38% 43% -11.2 28% 32% -13.0 34% 38% -9.5
26.08.23 South Shields vs Gloucester City 3-0 50% 56% -11.8 26% 29% -10.6 25% 27% -7.8
26.08.23 Spennymoor Town vs Bishops Stortford 1-0 52% 59% -11.8 25% 29% -11.1 23% 24% -6.9
28.08.23 Banbury United vs Buxton FC 0-3 33% 36% -8.8 27% 31% -11.6 40% 45% -11.6
28.08.23 Blyth Spartans vs Spennymoor Town 2-0 30% 33% -9.7 26% 29% -11.1 44% 50% -12.5
28.08.23 Chester FC vs Farsley Celtic 2-0 56% 62% -10.0 24% 28% -12.6 20% 23% -11.4
28.08.23 Darlington FC vs South Shields 2-2 31% 34% -10.4 27% 31% -12.3 42% 48% -11.6
28.08.23 Kings Lynn vs Alfreton Town 2-1 47% 52% -9.2 26% 30% -12.8 27% 30% -12.5
28.08.23 Peterborough Sports FC vs Brackley Town 0-3 28% 31% -12.0 27% 31% -13.3 45% 50% -9.2
28.08.23 Scunthorpe United vs Scarborough Athletic 4-1 54% 61% -10.8 25% 28% -11.7 21% 24% -10.2
28.08.23 Southport FC vs Chorley FC 0-2 27% 29% -8.5 27% 30% -12.3 47% 53% -12.6
28.08.23 Tamworth FC vs Hereford FC 4-0 44% 49% -9.8 27% 30% -12.1 29% 33% -11.9
28.08.23 Warrington Town vs Curzon Ashton 1-4 42% 47% -9.6 27% 31% -12.2 31% 35% -11.9
02.09.23 Alfreton Town vs Scunthorpe United 2-2 28% 30% -8.4 27% 31% -12.5 45% 51% -11.1
02.09.23 Buxton FC vs Darlington FC 5-0 48% 53% -10.0 26% 29% -11.9 26% 29% -11.7
02.09.23 Chorley FC vs Bishops Stortford 2-1 57% 64% -11.2 25% 28% -11.6 19% 20% -5.5
02.09.23 Curzon Ashton vs Tamworth FC 0-1 32% 35% -7.5 28% 32% -12.6 39% 44% -11.4
02.09.23 Farsley Celtic vs Kings Lynn 0-0 32% 34% -8.4 27% 30% -11.5 42% 48% -12.6
02.09.23 Hereford FC vs Southport FC 0-1 52% 58% -10.9 26% 29% -12.4 23% 25% -9.1
02.09.23 Rushall Olympic FC vs Peterborough Sports FC 1-0 40% 44% -9.7 27% 31% -12.6 33% 37% -12.2
02.09.23 Scarborough Athletic vs Gloucester City 1-1 50% 57% -12.8 25% 28% -10.3 25% 28% -9.1
02.09.23 South Shields vs Banbury United 4-0 58% 65% -11.6 24% 26% -10.6 19% 20% -6.7
02.09.23 Spennymoor Town vs Chester FC 1-1 42% 48% -11.4 27% 31% -11.9 31% 34% -9.4
05.09.23 Banbury United vs Alfreton Town 0-0 33% 36% -9.6 27% 31% -12.0 40% 44% -10.8
05.09.23 Chester FC vs Hereford FC 1-2 55% 62% -11.9 25% 29% -11.9 20% 21% -5.0
05.09.23 Darlington FC vs Boston United 0-0 33% 37% -9.9 26% 29% -10.9 40% 47% -13.1
05.09.23 Gloucester City vs Buxton FC 0-0 36% 39% -8.8 27% 31% -11.8 37% 43% -12.8
05.09.23 Kings Lynn vs Brackley Town 2-2 29% 31% -6.0 27% 31% -12.3 43% 50% -13.5
05.09.23 Peterborough Sports FC vs Curzon Ashton 1-1 41% 47% -10.9 28% 32% -13.3 31% 34% -9.8
05.09.23 Scunthorpe United vs South Shields 3-1 49% 55% -10.6 26% 29% -11.8 25% 28% -10.1
05.09.23 Southport FC vs Scarborough Athletic 3-1 31% 35% -11.8 27% 31% -12.8 42% 47% -10.1
05.09.23 Tamworth FC vs Chorley FC 2-1 39% 44% -12.0 28% 32% -13.3 33% 36% -9.4
05.09.23 Warrington Town vs Spennymoor Town 3-3 33% 37% -10.2 27% 31% -12.4 39% 44% -11.4
09.09.23 Alfreton Town vs Boston United 4-0 39% 43% -9.8 27% 31% -12.3 33% 38% -11.5
09.09.23 Bishops Stortford vs Darlington FC 1-0 36% 40% -8.9 28% 32% -13.3 36% 41% -12.7
09.09.23 Chester FC vs Blyth Spartans 2-1 50% 56% -10.0 26% 29% -12.7 24% 28% -12.3
09.09.23 Curzon Ashton vs Chorley FC 0-1 30% 34% -10.6 28% 32% -13.4 42% 47% -10.2
09.09.23 Kings Lynn vs Southport FC 1-4 46% 50% -7.6 26% 30% -13.1 27% 32% -14.9
09.09.23 Scarborough Athletic vs Brackley Town 2-1 32% 36% -9.7 27% 31% -12.3 40% 45% -11.2
09.09.23 South Shields vs Rushall Olympic FC 2-0 49% 54% -8.5 26% 30% -13.3 24% 28% -12.6
09.09.23 Spennymoor Town vs Hereford FC 2-0 50% 56% -11.8 26% 30% -12.9 24% 26% -8.7
09.09.23 Tamworth FC vs Peterborough Sports FC 3-0 57% 66% -12.9 24% 26% -10.2 19% 20% -4.8
23.09.23 Blyth Spartans vs Alfreton Town 1-3 38% 43% -11.6 27% 31% -11.9 34% 38% -10.4
23.09.23 Boston United vs Chester FC 1-0 39% 43% -10.9 29% 33% -14.2 33% 36% -10.2
23.09.23 Brackley Town vs Curzon Ashton 0-2 56% 62% -9.7 24% 28% -12.8 19% 22% -11.1
23.09.23 Buxton FC vs Spennymoor Town 0-2 38% 44% -13.4 27% 31% -12.1 34% 38% -8.7
23.09.23 Chorley FC vs Scunthorpe United 1-1 33% 37% -11.1 26% 29% -10.5 41% 45% -10.4
23.09.23 Darlington FC vs Gloucester City 1-1 42% 48% -10.8 27% 31% -12.4 31% 34% -11.4
23.09.23 Hereford FC vs Bishops Stortford 1-0 49% 54% -10.1 28% 32% -14.0 24% 26% -7.7
23.09.23 Peterborough Sports FC vs South Shields 2-4 27% 30% -9.3 27% 30% -11.8 46% 51% -10.7
23.09.23 Rushall Olympic FC vs Scarborough Athletic 4-2 37% 41% -8.3 28% 32% -13.0 34% 39% -12.0
23.09.23 Southport FC vs Tamworth FC 0-0 28% 31% -9.2 27% 30% -11.7 45% 51% -11.1
23.09.23 Warrington Town vs Kings Lynn 1-0 41% 45% -9.2 27% 31% -12.2 32% 36% -12.8
07.10.23 Alfreton Town vs Warrington Town 1-1 47% 53% -9.9 26% 29% -11.8 27% 30% -12.0
07.10.23 Bishops Stortford vs Southport FC 2-3 38% 41% -7.4 28% 32% -13.1 34% 39% -12.9
07.10.23 Chester FC vs Peterborough Sports FC 3-2 54% 60% -9.4 25% 29% -12.7 21% 24% -11.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 1458 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

24 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Macclesfield FC 1791.81
2 Chester FC 1786.87
3 South Shields 1782.17
4 Oxford City 1780.39
5 Buxton FC 1758.28
6 Morecambe FC 1728.60
7 Harborough Town FC 1723.28
8 Hednesford Town 1720.07
9 Hereford FC 1717.07
10 Kings Lynn 1715.06
11 Scarborough Athletic 1711.59
12 AFC Telford United 1688.61
13 Worksop Town 1676.52
14 Merthyr Town 1667.39
15 Hebburn Town 1659.50
16 Darlington FC 1657.29
17 Spalding United 1650.08
18 Chorley FC 1648.16
19 Marine FC 1627.22
20 Southport FC 1619.11
21 Brackley Town 1607.47
22 Radcliffe Borough 1607.27
23 Bedford Town FC 1592.26
24 Spennymoor Town 1585.60

Away Ratings

24 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Chester FC 1749.85
2 South Shields 1749.06
3 Macclesfield FC 1736.14
4 Harborough Town FC 1729.26
5 Buxton FC 1695.01
6 Oxford City 1673.11
7 Hereford FC 1666.50
8 Morecambe FC 1652.91
9 Spalding United 1643.94
10 Hednesford Town 1642.24
11 Scarborough Athletic 1627.17
12 Kings Lynn 1623.46
13 Worksop Town 1617.55
14 Merthyr Town 1616.93
15 Brackley Town 1604.19
16 Hebburn Town 1595.35
17 Darlington FC 1592.19
18 Marine FC 1577.72
19 Bedford Town FC 1576.18
20 AFC Telford United 1572.82
21 Chorley FC 1560.43
22 Radcliffe Borough 1557.49
23 Spennymoor Town 1549.68
24 Southport FC 1539.32