ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1153
Avg Goals 2.84
Avg Home 1.57
Avg Away 1.28
Home Win % 43.1%
Draw % 25.3%
Away Win % 31.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1153
Avg Brier Score 0.6270
Pick Accuracy 47.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6264
Market Brier 0.6262
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 21
Value Bet Hit Rate 14.3%
ROI (flat stake) 15.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 85.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 20 of 1153 matches had at least one · staked 21.00, profit 3.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 18 16.7% 18.00 6.25 34.7%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 0.0% 1
10–20% 17.3% 15.7% 102
20–30% 26.3% 24.8% 1625
30–40% 34.8% 35.6% 887
40–50% 44.0% 44.8% 607
50–60% 54.0% 59.4% 192
60–70% 63.8% 72.5% 40
70–80% 73.2% 60.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
12.08.23 Basford United vs Morpeth Town 2-2 39% 44% -11.4 28% 30% -9.0 33% 37% -10.7
12.08.23 FC United of Manchester vs Worksop Town 3-0 39% 45% -13.8 26% 29% -7.9 34% 39% -12.0
12.08.23 Gainsborough Trinity vs Marine FC 0-0 46% 53% -12.9 27% 29% -9.2 27% 30% -9.3
12.08.23 Hyde United vs Guiseley AFC 1-1 42% 47% -10.8 28% 31% -10.5 31% 34% -11.4
12.08.23 Lancaster City FC vs Stafford Rangers 2-0 41% 47% -11.4 28% 31% -10.4 31% 34% -10.7
12.08.23 Marske United vs Ilkeston Town FC 1-3 38% 43% -13.8 27% 29% -8.5 36% 40% -11.0
12.08.23 Matlock Town FC vs Bamber Bridge 0-0 43% 50% -13.8 27% 29% -8.9 30% 33% -9.7
12.08.23 Warrington Rylands FC vs Radcliffe Borough 0-4 38% 43% -11.6 27% 29% -7.2 36% 41% -12.1
12.08.23 Whitby Town vs Atherton Collieries 2-0 44% 51% -13.1 28% 31% -10.3 28% 30% -7.3
12.08.23 Workington AFC vs Ashton United 5-0 41% 48% -13.4 27% 29% -8.3 32% 35% -9.3
15.08.23 Ashton United vs Basford United 1-0 37% 42% -10.4 27% 29% -8.6 36% 42% -14.1
15.08.23 Bamber Bridge vs Hyde United 2-0 39% 44% -12.3 28% 31% -9.9 33% 36% -9.6
15.08.23 Guiseley AFC vs Whitby Town 1-3 43% 49% -11.6 28% 31% -10.7 29% 32% -10.3
15.08.23 Ilkeston Town FC vs Gainsborough Trinity 4-0 37% 42% -12.6 28% 31% -9.7 35% 38% -9.3
15.08.23 Marine FC vs FC United of Manchester 5-1 38% 42% -8.9 28% 31% -10.7 34% 40% -14.6
15.08.23 Morpeth Town vs Workington AFC 3-0 38% 42% -10.6 28% 31% -10.3 34% 39% -12.7
15.08.23 Radcliffe Borough vs Lancaster City FC 4-2 46% 53% -13.6 26% 29% -8.3 28% 31% -9.5
15.08.23 Stafford Rangers vs Warrington Rylands FC 0-2 41% 47% -12.5 28% 31% -10.1 31% 34% -9.4
19.08.23 Ashton United vs Marske United 3-1 44% 51% -13.4 26% 29% -8.0 30% 33% -10.0
19.08.23 Atherton Collieries vs Warrington Rylands FC 1-1 32% 34% -7.2 28% 31% -9.1 40% 47% -13.9
19.08.23 Bamber Bridge vs Bradford Park Avenue 1-1 46% 54% -14.4 26% 29% -8.6 28% 30% -8.9
19.08.23 Guiseley AFC vs Basford United 2-1 52% 61% -15.0 26% 28% -8.1 22% 23% -3.1
19.08.23 Ilkeston Town FC vs Workington AFC 6-1 45% 53% -14.6 26% 28% -7.0 29% 31% -8.1
19.08.23 Macclesfield FC vs Gainsborough Trinity 3-0 64% 78% -17.6 20% 20% 2.2 15% 13% 17.6
19.08.23 Marine FC vs Whitby Town 1-3 46% 53% -13.0 26% 29% -8.1 28% 31% -9.2
19.08.23 Morpeth Town vs Matlock Town FC 3-3 39% 44% -12.5 28% 30% -9.2 34% 38% -10.9
19.08.23 Radcliffe Borough vs Hyde United 2-0 50% 60% -16.3 25% 27% -5.7 25% 26% -2.4
19.08.23 Stafford Rangers vs FC United of Manchester 3-2 34% 36% -7.5 26% 29% -7.5 40% 48% -16.1
19.08.23 Worksop Town vs Lancaster City FC 0-0 53% 64% -16.8 24% 25% -4.0 23% 23% -0.5
21.08.23 Bradford Park Avenue vs Morpeth Town 2-0 43% 49% -12.4 27% 29% -9.0 31% 34% -11.5
22.08.23 FC United of Manchester vs Ilkeston Town FC 1-0 37% 41% -9.1 27% 29% -8.8 36% 43% -15.3
22.08.23 Gainsborough Trinity vs Guiseley AFC 4-0 38% 44% -13.4 28% 31% -9.9 34% 38% -10.5
22.08.23 Hyde United vs Marine FC 2-1 39% 44% -11.3 28% 31% -9.8 33% 37% -11.4
22.08.23 Lancaster City FC vs Macclesfield FC 3-0 23% 24% -3.9 25% 26% -4.3 53% 62% -15.9
22.08.23 Marske United vs Bamber Bridge 3-1 34% 38% -11.1 27% 29% -8.3 39% 45% -13.1
22.08.23 Warrington Rylands FC vs Ashton United 2-0 48% 56% -14.8 26% 28% -7.9 26% 29% -8.1
22.08.23 Whitby Town vs Worksop Town 2-4 43% 51% -16.9 27% 29% -8.6 30% 32% -5.5
22.08.23 Workington AFC vs Radcliffe Borough 1-4 27% 29% -5.4 26% 28% -6.8 47% 56% -16.7
26.08.23 Bradford Park Avenue vs Ilkeston Town FC 4-1 34% 37% -8.4 27% 29% -7.2 40% 47% -14.9
26.08.23 FC United of Manchester vs Macclesfield FC 2-1 31% 35% -10.8 26% 28% -6.7 43% 50% -14.4
26.08.23 Gainsborough Trinity vs Bamber Bridge 1-1 44% 53% -15.8 27% 29% -8.4 29% 30% -5.2
26.08.23 Hyde United vs Worksop Town 3-1 33% 37% -10.0 27% 29% -7.2 40% 47% -13.7
26.08.23 Lancaster City FC vs Guiseley AFC 2-2 40% 47% -13.2 27% 29% -7.9 33% 36% -8.8
26.08.23 Warrington Rylands FC vs Morpeth Town 2-0 50% 59% -14.8 26% 28% -7.8 24% 26% -5.4
26.08.23 Whitby Town vs Ashton United 1-3 48% 56% -15.2 26% 29% -8.0 26% 27% -4.6
26.08.23 Workington AFC vs Stafford Rangers 2-1 37% 41% -10.2 27% 29% -8.6 36% 43% -14.3
28.08.23 Ashton United vs Hyde United 2-1 35% 38% -8.8 27% 29% -6.9 38% 44% -13.8
28.08.23 Atherton Collieries vs Lancaster City FC 0-2 33% 36% -9.1 28% 31% -9.6 39% 45% -13.9
28.08.23 Macclesfield FC vs Warrington Rylands FC 1-1 54% 64% -15.4 24% 25% -4.4 22% 23% -2.2
28.08.23 Morpeth Town vs Marske United 4-2 49% 58% -15.4 25% 27% -6.5 26% 27% -5.4
28.08.23 Radcliffe Borough vs FC United of Manchester 5-0 51% 60% -14.6 25% 27% -7.2 24% 26% -6.2
09.09.23 Bamber Bridge vs Guiseley AFC 0-2 40% 47% -13.2 27% 30% -9.4 32% 36% -10.0
09.09.23 FC United of Manchester vs Bradford Park Avenue 2-0 46% 52% -11.9 26% 29% -8.1 28% 31% -10.1
09.09.23 Hyde United vs Lancaster City FC 0-3 39% 44% -13.2 27% 29% -8.7 35% 39% -11.8
09.09.23 Ilkeston Town FC vs Worksop Town 1-2 34% 38% -11.5 27% 29% -8.1 39% 44% -12.4
09.09.23 Macclesfield FC vs Ashton United 5-0 60% 72% -16.6 22% 23% -3.1 18% 17% 5.7
09.09.23 Morpeth Town vs Gainsborough Trinity 2-0 40% 48% -15.1 27% 29% -8.5 33% 36% -8.6
09.09.23 Whitby Town vs Warrington Rylands FC 1-3 39% 43% -10.8 28% 31% -10.5 34% 39% -14.1
09.09.23 Workington AFC vs Basford United 5-3 48% 56% -13.9 26% 29% -8.2 26% 28% -6.6
16.09.23 Basford United vs Ilkeston Town FC 0-1 33% 37% -11.4 27% 29% -7.2 41% 47% -12.6
23.09.23 Bamber Bridge vs Morpeth Town 3-3 41% 47% -11.7 27% 29% -8.6 32% 36% -11.9
23.09.23 Bradford Park Avenue vs Workington AFC 1-2 46% 53% -14.2 26% 29% -8.6 28% 31% -9.7
23.09.23 FC United of Manchester vs Whitby Town 1-1 42% 49% -13.2 27% 29% -9.1 31% 35% -11.2
23.09.23 Gainsborough Trinity vs Atherton Collieries 4-1 49% 56% -14.1 26% 29% -8.4 25% 27% -6.4
23.09.23 Guiseley AFC vs Ashton United 0-1 49% 58% -15.4 25% 27% -6.9 25% 27% -6.1
23.09.23 Hyde United vs Basford United 1-0 57% 68% -16.4 23% 23% -2.3 20% 20% 0.9
23.09.23 Lancaster City FC vs Ilkeston Town FC 0-4 46% 54% -14.8 26% 29% -7.7 28% 29% -6.1
23.09.23 Matlock Town FC vs Warrington Rylands FC 2-4 37% 41% -10.0 28% 30% -8.9 36% 41% -12.6
26.09.23 Ashton United vs Bradford Park Avenue 2-1 40% 47% -13.3 27% 29% -8.3 33% 36% -10.1
26.09.23 Atherton Collieries vs Bamber Bridge 1-2 30% 31% -3.6 27% 29% -7.1 44% 53% -16.8
26.09.23 Ilkeston Town FC vs Macclesfield FC 1-1 29% 31% -7.8 25% 27% -5.0 46% 54% -15.2
26.09.23 Morpeth Town vs Guiseley AFC 1-1 39% 45% -13.5 27% 29% -8.9 34% 38% -11.9
26.09.23 Stafford Rangers vs Hyde United 1-2 33% 37% -9.8 27% 29% -7.2 40% 47% -13.8
26.09.23 Warrington Rylands FC vs FC United of Manchester 1-0 45% 53% -15.0 25% 27% -5.7 29% 31% -7.0
26.09.23 Whitby Town vs Marske United 4-2 58% 68% -15.4 22% 23% -2.7 20% 21% -3.4
26.09.23 Workington AFC vs Lancaster City FC 2-1 35% 40% -12.0 27% 29% -7.1 38% 43% -12.0
30.09.23 Basford United vs Gainsborough Trinity 3-0 33% 38% -13.1 26% 29% -7.6 41% 47% -12.3
30.09.23 Ilkeston Town FC vs Bamber Bridge 1-0 44% 51% -13.2 26% 29% -8.0 30% 33% -10.3
30.09.23 Workington AFC vs FC United of Manchester 2-1 40% 47% -14.9 26% 29% -7.6 34% 38% -9.8
03.10.23 Ashton United vs Morpeth Town 4-3 39% 44% -11.2 27% 29% -9.0 34% 39% -13.9
03.10.23 Atherton Collieries vs Hyde United 1-2 30% 32% -5.5 26% 28% -6.2 43% 52% -16.1
03.10.23 Gainsborough Trinity vs Matlock Town FC 5-3 39% 44% -11.5 27% 29% -8.5 34% 38% -12.3
03.10.23 Marske United vs FC United of Manchester 2-5 29% 31% -8.5 25% 26% -4.7 46% 55% -15.2
10.10.23 Guiseley AFC vs Atherton Collieries 3-2 54% 64% -15.1 25% 27% -8.0 21% 22% -3.1
10.10.23 Warrington Rylands FC vs Workington AFC 1-0 51% 61% -15.2 25% 27% -6.7 24% 25% -5.0
14.10.23 Bradford Park Avenue vs Hyde United 0-3 34% 38% -9.6 28% 31% -10.6 38% 44% -14.7
14.10.23 FC United of Manchester vs Morpeth Town 2-5 46% 53% -13.7 26% 28% -7.5 28% 31% -9.9
14.10.23 Gainsborough Trinity vs Warrington Rylands FC 1-1 35% 38% -10.1 27% 29% -8.2 38% 44% -13.5
14.10.23 Guiseley AFC vs Stafford Rangers 2-0 47% 55% -13.8 27% 29% -9.2 26% 28% -6.8
14.10.23 Matlock Town FC vs Workington AFC 2-2 47% 55% -13.7 26% 28% -7.2 27% 29% -8.0
14.10.23 Radcliffe Borough vs Ilkeston Town FC 3-0 56% 66% -15.7 23% 24% -4.2 21% 21% -1.1
17.10.23 Ashton United vs Matlock Town FC 5-0 38% 43% -10.8 27% 29% -8.7 35% 41% -13.8
21.10.23 Ashton United vs Radcliffe Borough 0-2 28% 29% -6.4 26% 27% -5.5 47% 56% -15.5
21.10.23 Basford United vs FC United of Manchester 1-1 32% 36% -11.7 26% 28% -6.8 42% 49% -13.9
21.10.23 Marine FC vs Lancaster City FC 2-1 45% 53% -14.7 27% 29% -9.2 28% 30% -8.0
21.10.23 Morpeth Town vs Macclesfield FC 2-0 28% 30% -6.7 25% 26% -3.8 47% 56% -16.2
21.10.23 Stafford Rangers vs Bamber Bridge 1-1 35% 39% -10.1 27% 29% -8.7 38% 44% -14.8
21.10.23 Warrington Rylands FC vs Hyde United 1-0 44% 51% -12.3 26% 28% -6.9 30% 33% -10.4
21.10.23 Workington AFC vs Gainsborough Trinity 2-3 41% 48% -14.1 26% 29% -7.6 33% 36% -10.1
23.10.23 Bradford Park Avenue vs Whitby Town 1-1 31% 34% -9.3 28% 30% -9.1 41% 48% -13.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 1153 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

26 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Bury FC 1755.73
2 Cleethorpes Town 1666.12
3 Redcar Athletic 1640.87
4 Guiseley AFC 1607.76
5 Curzon Ashton 1604.95
6 Avro FC 1597.01
7 Warrington Town 1589.49
8 Workington AFC 1576.81
9 Warrington Rylands FC 1571.58
10 Gainsborough Trinity 1566.90
11 Ashton United 1550.72
12 Stockton Town FC 1546.38
13 Prescot Cables 1531.26
14 Alfreton Town 1515.90
15 AFC Emley 1498.87
16 Lancaster City FC 1498.24
17 Bamber Bridge 1491.31
18 FC United of Manchester 1480.57
19 Leek Town 1480.36
20 Ilkeston Town FC 1473.58
21 Quorn FC 1468.26
22 Hyde United 1466.88
23 Whitby Town 1463.84
24 Stocksbridge Park Steels 1458.53
25 Morpeth Town 1455.67
26 Avro 1452.48

Away Ratings

26 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Bury FC 1664.02
2 Redcar Athletic 1655.09
3 Cleethorpes Town 1600.90
4 Guiseley AFC 1569.71
5 Avro FC 1564.87
6 Alfreton Town 1563.50
7 Gainsborough Trinity 1558.92
8 Lancaster City FC 1542.79
9 Prescot Cables 1531.02
10 Ashton United 1520.03
11 Avro 1518.20
12 Warrington Town 1498.49
13 Stockton Town FC 1493.70
14 Curzon Ashton 1491.00
15 Warrington Rylands FC 1481.56
16 Leek Town 1480.63
17 Hyde United 1476.78
18 AFC Emley 1465.78
19 Workington AFC 1452.96
20 Ilkeston Town FC 1451.50
21 Morpeth Town 1449.71
22 Quorn FC 1441.19
23 Bamber Bridge 1425.97
24 FC United of Manchester 1423.23
25 Stocksbridge Park Steels 1392.83
26 Whitby Town 1372.97