ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 871
Avg Goals 1.94
Avg Home 0.95
Avg Away 0.99
Home Win % 31.1%
Draw % 35.9%
Away Win % 33.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 871
Avg Brier Score 0.6445
Pick Accuracy 40.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6449
Market Brier 0.6453
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 12
Value Bet Hit Rate 8.3%
ROI (flat stake) -52.1%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 10 of 871 matches had at least one · staked 12.00, profit -6.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 3 33.3% 3.00 2.75 91.7%
away 7 0.0% 7.00 -7.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.2% 0.0% 1
10–20% 17.1% 14.1% 71
20–30% 26.4% 25.1% 630
30–40% 33.8% 33.8% 1537
40–50% 44.0% 44.3% 296
50–60% 53.3% 67.7% 65
60–70% 64.3% 66.7% 12
70–80% 71.0% 0.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
01.10.23 Adama Kima FC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0-0 44% 56% -21.1 30% 31% -3.8 26% 25% 4.2
01.10.23 Sidama Bunna vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 0-1 34% 41% -17.0 31% 33% -6.8 35% 38% -8.9
07.10.23 Hadiya Hossana vs Defence Force SC 2-3 36% 42% -14.1 33% 36% -8.8 31% 34% -9.6
07.10.23 Hawassa Kima FC vs Fasil Kenema SC 3-3 25% 29% -14.1 32% 36% -9.9 43% 49% -11.3
08.10.23 Ethiopian Medhin vs Bahir Dar Kenema 3-2 24% 27% -13.0 28% 29% -3.5 48% 56% -13.4
08.10.23 Saint George FC vs Wolkite Ketema FC 4-1 51% 64% -19.8 29% 29% -3.0 20% 19% 6.8
12.10.23 Dire Dawa Kenema vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 0-1 31% 37% -17.1 31% 33% -7.2 38% 43% -9.9
12.10.23 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Hadiya Hossana 1-0 33% 40% -18.5 32% 34% -8.2 36% 38% -7.0
13.10.23 Fasil Kenema SC vs Ethiopian Medhin 1-1 47% 56% -15.5 29% 30% -4.7 24% 26% -7.8
13.10.23 Hambericho Durame vs Saint George FC 1-2 14% 12% 11.5 23% 21% 10.3 63% 78% -18.6
14.10.23 Welayta Dicha FC vs Adama Kima FC 0-1 33% 38% -13.1 33% 37% -9.8 34% 38% -10.5
14.10.23 Wolkite Ketema FC vs Sidama Bunna 1-1 33% 39% -16.9 31% 34% -7.2 36% 39% -8.3
15.10.23 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Defence Force SC 2-1 40% 49% -17.6 30% 31% -4.5 30% 32% -7.0
15.10.23 Shashemene Kenema vs Hawassa Kima FC 0-1 31% 35% -11.0 30% 32% -5.7 39% 45% -15.2
19.10.23 Ethiopian Medhin vs Welayta Dicha FC 0-1 38% 45% -15.8 32% 35% -8.5 30% 32% -8.2
19.10.23 Sidama Bunna vs Fasil Kenema SC 0-1 27% 31% -12.0 33% 37% -9.9 40% 44% -11.1
20.10.23 Hadiya Hossana vs Wolkite Ketema FC 0-0 39% 45% -14.5 33% 36% -9.5 28% 31% -8.2
20.10.23 Saint George FC vs Shashemene Kenema 3-2 60% 73% -18.2 25% 24% 1.7 15% 14% 8.1
21.10.23 Defence Force SC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1-1 36% 43% -16.2 31% 32% -5.4 33% 36% -9.2
21.10.23 Hawassa Kima FC vs Dire Dawa Kenema 0-0 38% 45% -17.0 30% 32% -5.5 32% 34% -7.8
22.10.23 Adama Kima FC vs Hambericho Durame 2-2 50% 59% -14.9 28% 29% -3.8 22% 23% -6.2
22.10.23 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Bahir Dar Kenema 2-2 32% 38% -15.9 33% 36% -8.9 36% 39% -8.9
25.10.23 Dire Dawa Kenema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2-3 35% 43% -18.5 32% 35% -8.1 33% 35% -4.5
25.10.23 Shashemene Kenema vs Sidama Bunna 1-3 28% 33% -16.1 31% 34% -7.9 41% 45% -10.3
26.10.23 Hawassa Kima FC vs Ethiopian Medhin 0-0 41% 51% -18.2 30% 32% -5.5 28% 29% -4.2
26.10.23 Wolkite Ketema FC vs Bahir Dar Kenema 0-3 23% 26% -10.9 30% 31% -5.2 48% 55% -13.5
27.10.23 Hambericho Durame vs Hadiya Hossana 0-0 29% 34% -15.1 30% 32% -5.6 41% 45% -10.3
27.10.23 Saint George FC vs Adama Kima FC 2-2 50% 62% -18.7 28% 29% -3.2 21% 21% 1.4
28.10.23 Fasil Kenema SC vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 2-0 43% 51% -16.6 30% 32% -5.7 27% 29% -6.2
28.10.23 Welayta Dicha FC vs Defence Force SC 0-1 39% 47% -17.1 32% 35% -7.8 29% 31% -4.7
31.10.23 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Wolkite Ketema FC 2-0 36% 42% -15.5 32% 35% -8.2 32% 36% -9.5
31.10.23 Hadiya Hossana vs Shashemene Kenema 0-0 50% 62% -19.3 30% 31% -5.2 20% 19% 6.3
01.11.23 Adama Kima FC vs Dire Dawa Kenema 2-1 41% 50% -18.3 30% 32% -5.7 29% 30% -5.3
01.11.23 Defence Force SC vs Hambericho Durame 1-0 44% 53% -17.1 30% 31% -5.4 26% 29% -7.8
02.11.23 Ethiopian Medhin vs Saint George FC 0-3 23% 26% -12.7 28% 29% -3.6 49% 56% -13.8
02.11.23 Sidama Bunna vs Hawassa Kima FC 0-1 35% 42% -15.7 32% 34% -7.7 33% 36% -9.1
03.11.23 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Fasil Kenema SC 0-0 39% 48% -17.3 31% 34% -7.4 29% 31% -6.5
03.11.23 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Welayta Dicha FC 2-2 39% 48% -17.3 33% 36% -8.9 28% 29% -4.6
30.11.23 Dire Dawa Kenema vs Welayta Dicha FC 1-1 34% 41% -16.8 33% 37% -9.7 33% 34% -5.5
30.11.23 Hambericho Durame vs Fasil Kenema SC 0-3 21% 24% -12.3 31% 33% -8.4 49% 56% -12.6
01.12.23 Ethiopian Medhin vs Defence Force SC 0-1 30% 34% -12.9 33% 36% -8.9 37% 43% -12.0
02.12.23 Saint George FC vs Bahir Dar Kenema 1-2 41% 50% -18.5 30% 32% -5.7 29% 30% -4.9
02.12.23 Sidama Bunna vs Hadiya Hossana 0-0 36% 43% -16.1 32% 35% -8.0 32% 35% -8.1
03.12.23 Adama Kima FC vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 2-1 36% 43% -17.1 31% 34% -7.2 32% 35% -7.4
03.12.23 Hawassa Kima FC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0-3 32% 38% -14.5 32% 34% -7.6 36% 40% -10.3
07.12.23 Fasil Kenema SC vs Welayta Dicha FC 0-2 46% 56% -17.9 32% 36% -9.0 21% 20% 5.5
08.12.23 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Hawassa Kima FC 2-1 50% 61% -17.8 28% 29% -3.2 21% 21% 0.2
08.12.23 Defence Force SC vs Adama Kima FC 2-1 34% 41% -15.6 31% 34% -7.2 34% 38% -9.7
09.12.23 Hadiya Hossana vs Ethiopian Medhin 1-1 35% 41% -13.9 33% 36% -9.0 32% 35% -8.8
10.12.23 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Shashemene Kenema 2-1 53% 65% -18.6 29% 29% -2.3 19% 17% 12.4
10.12.23 Sidama Bunna vs Dire Dawa Kenema 0-2 39% 47% -16.4 31% 34% -7.3 30% 32% -7.8
14.12.23 Hawassa Kima FC vs Saint George FC 0-3 23% 26% -12.8 23% 21% 9.9 54% 65% -16.4
14.12.23 Wolkite Ketema FC vs Defence Force SC 0-2 25% 26% -6.7 32% 34% -7.9 44% 52% -15.7
15.12.23 Dire Dawa Kenema vs Bahir Dar Kenema 1-2 24% 28% -14.2 29% 31% -5.8 47% 53% -12.6
15.12.23 Fasil Kenema SC vs Hadiya Hossana 1-2 44% 52% -15.8 33% 36% -9.4 23% 24% -1.5
16.12.23 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 2-1 51% 65% -20.4 29% 29% -2.8 20% 18% 10.2
16.12.23 Hambericho Durame vs Ethiopian Medhin 0-2 30% 35% -14.0 31% 34% -7.3 38% 43% -11.7
17.12.23 Shashemene Kenema vs Adama Kima FC 1-1 24% 29% -14.5 29% 30% -4.7 47% 53% -12.7
17.12.23 Welayta Dicha FC vs Sidama Bunna 1-4 39% 48% -17.8 32% 35% -8.5 29% 30% -5.1
30.12.23 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Saint George FC 1-0 16% 17% -5.3 27% 27% -1.7 57% 67% -15.1
03.01.24 Adama Kima FC vs Hadiya Hossana 0-1 33% 37% -11.5 34% 37% -9.4 34% 38% -10.8
03.01.24 Ethiopian Medhin vs Sidama Bunna 0-1 34% 40% -15.0 30% 32% -5.5 36% 40% -11.2
04.01.24 Saint George FC vs Defence Force SC 1-1 43% 49% -12.8 31% 33% -8.0 27% 31% -12.9
04.01.24 Shashemene Kenema vs Bahir Dar Kenema 0-0 14% 14% -4.5 24% 23% 2.5 63% 74% -14.7
05.01.24 Dire Dawa Kenema vs Fasil Kenema SC 0-3 25% 29% -13.2 31% 33% -7.4 44% 51% -12.2
05.01.24 Hawassa Kima FC vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 1-2 30% 33% -10.8 32% 35% -8.1 38% 44% -14.0
06.01.24 Hambericho Durame vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0-2 18% 19% -8.0 27% 29% -3.9 55% 65% -14.7
06.01.24 Welayta Dicha FC vs Wolkite Ketema FC 2-1 38% 44% -15.0 34% 38% -10.7 29% 31% -7.3
09.01.24 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Shashemene Kenema 1-1 55% 68% -18.5 27% 28% -1.9 17% 16% 8.1
09.01.24 Sidama Bunna vs Adama Kima FC 0-0 36% 43% -16.1 32% 34% -7.8 33% 36% -8.9
10.01.24 Defence Force SC vs Hawassa Kima FC 2-1 48% 57% -16.3 30% 32% -6.8 22% 23% -4.3
10.01.24 Hadiya Hossana vs Saint George FC 0-0 23% 25% -8.8 32% 36% -9.1 45% 51% -12.8
11.01.24 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Hambericho Durame 0-0 64% 76% -16.3 23% 23% 1.9 13% 12% 7.0
11.01.24 Ethiopian Medhin vs Dire Dawa Kenema 1-2 32% 37% -13.4 32% 35% -8.5 36% 41% -12.3
12.01.24 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Welayta Dicha FC 0-1 40% 48% -15.6 33% 36% -8.6 27% 29% -4.9
12.01.24 Wolkite Ketema FC vs Fasil Kenema SC 0-1 19% 20% -4.4 29% 30% -4.5 52% 62% -15.9
15.01.24 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Sidama Bunna 0-2 47% 56% -16.2 30% 32% -6.3 23% 24% -4.7
15.01.24 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Hadiya Hossana 1-1 37% 44% -16.9 33% 36% -8.7 30% 32% -5.5
16.01.24 Welayta Dicha FC vs Hawassa Kima FC 1-2 35% 39% -12.0 33% 36% -8.9 33% 38% -12.7
16.01.24 Wolkite Ketema FC vs Adama Kima FC 0-0 30% 34% -12.3 33% 36% -8.7 37% 42% -11.9
17.01.24 Dire Dawa Kenema vs Defence Force SC 1-3 26% 29% -11.9 31% 34% -8.0 43% 50% -14.2
17.01.24 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Ethiopian Medhin 4-1 48% 57% -16.3 30% 32% -6.5 22% 23% -3.1
18.01.24 Fasil Kenema SC vs Saint George FC 0-1 31% 36% -13.3 34% 38% -10.4 35% 39% -10.1
25.01.24 Defence Force SC vs Fasil Kenema SC 0-0 34% 41% -15.8 33% 37% -9.9 32% 35% -7.4
25.01.24 Ethiopian Medhin vs Shashemene Kenema 1-1 38% 44% -14.2 30% 32% -5.8 31% 36% -11.9
26.01.24 Adama Kima FC vs Hawassa Kima FC 3-2 39% 47% -15.4 32% 35% -8.2 29% 31% -8.1
26.01.24 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1-2 33% 38% -12.9 31% 33% -7.1 36% 42% -14.3
27.01.24 Saint George FC vs Dire Dawa Kenema 0-3 54% 65% -16.7 27% 28% -2.0 19% 19% -0.2
27.01.24 Sidama Bunna vs Hambericho Durame 0-2 55% 66% -16.5 28% 29% -3.5 17% 17% 3.0
28.01.24 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Wolkite Ketema FC 1-0 45% 55% -17.8 31% 33% -7.2 24% 24% -2.1
28.01.24 Hadiya Hossana vs Welayta Dicha FC 1-1 34% 39% -13.3 35% 39% -11.6 31% 34% -9.1
01.02.24 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Saint George FC 0-3 35% 42% -15.9 31% 34% -7.2 33% 36% -9.1
01.02.24 Welayta Dicha FC vs Hambericho Durame 1-0 57% 69% -17.3 26% 27% -2.2 16% 15% 4.8
02.02.24 Ethiopia Bunna SC vs Ethiopian Medhin 3-0 44% 53% -16.8 30% 32% -6.1 25% 27% -5.9
02.02.24 Hadiya Hossana vs Dire Dawa Kenema 0-0 31% 35% -11.4 32% 34% -7.5 37% 43% -13.0
03.02.24 Bahir Dar Kenema vs Adama Kima FC 1-2 43% 50% -14.4 32% 35% -8.7 25% 27% -6.9
03.02.24 Defence Force SC vs Sidama Bunna 2-1 41% 49% -16.8 32% 34% -7.1 28% 29% -5.1
04.02.24 Fasil Kenema SC vs Shashemene Kenema 2-0 52% 62% -15.6 29% 31% -5.7 19% 19% -0.9
04.02.24 Wolkite Ketema FC vs Hawassa Kima FC 1-2 35% 41% -14.1 31% 34% -7.2 33% 38% -11.3
08.02.24 Defence Force SC vs Ethiopia Bunna SC 0-4 37% 44% -15.8 33% 36% -8.8 30% 32% -7.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 871 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

22 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sidama Bunna 1637.60
2 Saint George FC 1584.33
3 Negele Arsi Ketema 1581.51
4 Welayta Dicha FC 1564.41
5 Defence Force SC 1564.38
6 Shire Endaselassie FC 1552.57
7 Bahir Dar Kenema 1549.01
8 Mekelle 70 Enderta FC 1540.76
9 Dire Dawa Kenema 1535.48
10 Hawassa Kima FC 1523.57
11 Gamo Chencha 1520.50
12 Ethiopia Bunna SC 1517.71
13 Fasil Kenema SC 1515.35
14 Sheger Ketema 1514.28
15 Ethiopian Medhin 1509.86
16 Adama Kima FC 1508.24
17 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1507.04
18 Ethiopia Electricity 1496.25
19 Welwalo Adigrat 1490.13
20 Halaba Ketema 1458.04
21 Hadiya Hossana 1441.78
22 Arba Minch Kenema 1362.36

Away Ratings

22 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sidama Bunna 1612.90
2 Defence Force SC 1609.24
3 Bahir Dar Kenema 1561.23
4 Ethiopian Medhin 1558.86
5 Mekelle 70 Enderta FC 1555.89
6 Negele Arsi Ketema 1555.22
7 Gamo Chencha 1550.00
8 Adama Kima FC 1548.77
9 Dire Dawa Kenema 1540.03
10 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1536.45
11 Sheger Ketema 1530.69
12 Hawassa Kima FC 1527.11
13 Hadiya Hossana 1523.13
14 Ethiopia Bunna SC 1515.51
15 Welayta Dicha FC 1513.50
16 Ethiopia Electricity 1506.36
17 Halaba Ketema 1504.83
18 Fasil Kenema SC 1496.51
19 Shire Endaselassie FC 1486.67
20 Arba Minch Kenema 1477.60
21 Saint George FC 1472.95
22 Welwalo Adigrat 1451.71