ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 8
Avg Goals 3.50
Avg Home 2.38
Avg Away 1.12
Home Win % 75.0%
Draw % 12.5%
Away Win % 12.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 8
Avg Brier Score 0.5173
Pick Accuracy 62.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6239
Market Brier 0.4849
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 8 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.5% 0.0% 4
20–30% 23.4% 20.0% 10
30–40% 36.2% 66.7% 3
40–50% 40.1% 0.0% 1
50–60% 53.5% 66.7% 3
60–70% 62.4% 66.7% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
06.05.26 FC Honka (W) vs FC Lahti (W) 4-0 60% 76% -20.9 21% 19% 10.2 19% 16% 16.4
10.05.26 ONS Oulu (W) vs Hameenlinnan Jalkapalloseura (W) 2-1 35% 47% -23.7 24% 26% -4.7 40% 40% 0.2
17.05.26 FC Honka (W) vs ONS Oulu (W) 3-1 55% 65% -15.1 24% 24% -2.0 21% 23% -7.6
23.05.26 KTP Kotka (W) vs EBK (W) 1-4 14% 11% 26.5 20% 17% 12.8 67% 82% -18.6
23.05.26 ONS Oulu (W) vs TPS Turku (W) 1-1 60% 73% -17.6 22% 21% 4.1 18% 17% 3.3
23.05.26 PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) vs JyPk (W) 3-2 23% 27% -13.9 25% 27% -6.4 52% 58% -11.0
27.05.26 JyPk (W) vs ONS Oulu (W) 1-0 40% 48% -16.1 27% 29% -5.5 33% 36% -7.5
02.06.26 Hameenlinnan Jalkapalloseura (W) vs KTP Kotka (W) 4-0 54% 60% -10.6 24% 26% -5.9 22% 26% -16.4

Home Ratings

6 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 ONS Oulu (W) 1364.72
2 HJK Helsinki Akatemia (W) 1297.17
3 KTP Kotka (W) 1274.82
4 PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) 1269.17
5 TPS Turku (W) 1215.01
6 FC Lahti (W) 1185.12

Away Ratings

6 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 TPS Turku (W) 1271.17
2 HJK Helsinki Akatemia (W) 1230.52
3 ONS Oulu (W) 1167.25
4 PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) 1118.71
5 KTP Kotka (W) 1082.55
6 FC Lahti (W) 1065.41