ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 204
Avg Goals 3.77
Avg Home 2.13
Avg Away 1.64
Home Win % 46.6%
Draw % 17.6%
Away Win % 35.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 204
Avg Brier Score 0.5204
Pick Accuracy 62.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5296
Market Brier 0.5258
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 21
Value Bet Hit Rate 57.1%
ROI (flat stake) 25.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 21 of 204 matches had at least one · staked 21.00, profit 5.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 14 57.1% 14.00 4.38 31.3%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 7 57.1% 7.00 0.87 12.4%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 9.7% 62
10–20% 16.0% 16.3% 246
20–30% 24.4% 21.7% 60
30–40% 34.7% 42.5% 40
40–50% 45.5% 44.1% 34
50–60% 55.2% 63.0% 46
60–70% 65.2% 67.3% 55
70–80% 74.7% 54.1% 37
80–90% 84.5% 85.2% 27
90–100% 92.8% 80.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
12.05.24 Esbo BK vs TPV Tampere 1-1 53% 44% 20.2 19% 28% -33.0 28% 40% -30.1
12.05.24 FC Honka Espoo vs Ilves Tampere II 1-3 61% 50% 21.9 16% 26% -36.9 23% 36% -37.2
12.05.24 VJS Vantaa vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 2-1 53% 50% 5.6 19% 27% -31.0 29% 36% -20.1
14.05.24 Tampere United vs HJS Akatemia 1-0 62% 56% 12.3 18% 28% -35.1 20% 29% -33.4
17.05.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Esbo BK 11-0 70% 66% 6.3 16% 24% -35.8 14% 22% -35.1
18.05.24 HJS Akatemia vs VJS Vantaa 1-1 42% 45% -6.8 20% 28% -29.3 38% 39% -3.1
18.05.24 Sexy Poxyt vs FC Honka Espoo 0-3 18% 28% -35.7 15% 24% -35.1 67% 61% 10.0
25.05.24 Esbo BK vs HJS Akatemia 1-2 24% 25% -4.9 17% 24% -28.4 59% 63% -6.5
25.05.24 FC Honka Espoo vs TPV Tampere 0-3 62% 54% 14.4 18% 27% -35.0 21% 31% -34.1
26.05.24 Ilves Tampere II vs Sexy Poxyt 3-4 79% 82% -3.0 12% 17% -31.6 9% 11% -22.5
26.05.24 Inter Turku II vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 4-0 62% 56% 11.6 17% 25% -33.6 21% 31% -31.6
29.05.24 Esbo BK vs Tampere United 0-1 12% 16% -22.8 14% 20% -30.6 74% 75% -1.9
29.05.24 FC Honka Espoo vs HJS Akatemia 3-1 43% 31% 38.3 19% 28% -31.9 39% 54% -28.7
29.05.24 Ilves Tampere II vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 4-1 30% 36% -15.6 19% 27% -29.8 51% 51% 1.2
02.06.24 HJS Akatemia vs Ilves Tampere II 5-1 65% 62% 5.6 16% 24% -33.0 19% 27% -29.2
02.06.24 Ilves Kissat vs FC Honka Espoo 0-3 25% 35% -27.5 18% 26% -31.6 57% 51% 10.7
02.06.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Sexy Poxyt 4-1 86% 88% -1.9 8% 12% -34.5 6% 10% -34.6
02.06.24 VJS Vantaa vs Esbo BK 2-1 75% 75% 0.3 13% 20% -32.7 11% 15% -27.9
07.06.24 FC Honka Espoo vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 2-1 42% 38% 10.2 18% 26% -29.6 40% 49% -18.9
08.06.24 HJS Akatemia vs Inter Turku II 2-1 15% 22% -30.1 15% 22% -32.5 70% 68% 2.4
08.06.24 Ilves Tampere II vs TPV Tampere 1-2 44% 44% -1.9 20% 28% -29.4 37% 40% -8.1
12.06.24 Tampere United vs FC Honka Espoo 1-1 75% 72% 3.9 14% 22% -36.5 11% 17% -36.5
15.06.24 Ilves Tampere II vs Tampere United 0-5 14% 21% -32.9 14% 22% -33.7 72% 69% 3.1
16.06.24 TPV Tampere vs HJS Akatemia 1-1 36% 35% 4.8 19% 27% -29.1 44% 51% -12.2
19.06.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs TPV Tampere 3-2 66% 62% 4.9 17% 25% -32.4 18% 24% -26.3
20.06.24 HJS Akatemia vs Sexy Poxyt 1-4 88% 90% -2.8 7% 11% -34.9 5% 8% -35.0
28.06.24 VJS Vantaa vs Ilves Tampere II 3-1 68% 70% -2.5 15% 21% -30.2 17% 21% -17.7
29.06.24 Esbo BK vs FC Honka Espoo 4-1 34% 29% 17.2 20% 28% -29.7 46% 56% -17.2
29.06.24 HJS Akatemia vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 2-1 35% 36% -3.5 20% 28% -29.6 45% 49% -7.0
03.07.24 FC Honka Espoo vs Inter Turku II 2-2 13% 17% -23.1 14% 20% -30.4 73% 74% -1.8
03.07.24 Ilves Tampere II vs Esbo BK 3-0 50% 51% -0.4 18% 25% -29.3 32% 37% -13.6
07.07.24 Esbo BK vs Sexy Poxyt 4-5 68% 62% 9.6 15% 24% -35.6 17% 26% -35.4
07.07.24 Tampere United vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 1-0 66% 61% 7.0 17% 26% -33.8 17% 25% -30.4
09.07.24 Inter Turku II vs Ilves Tampere II 5-1 81% 81% -0.4 10% 15% -34.8 9% 14% -34.6
12.07.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs VJS Vantaa 2-1 45% 43% 2.4 18% 26% -29.8 37% 43% -14.9
12.07.24 TPV Tampere vs Esbo BK 4-1 64% 60% 7.2 17% 26% -33.4 19% 27% -29.3
13.07.24 HJS Akatemia vs Tampere United 2-0 28% 34% -18.4 19% 28% -30.2 52% 50% 5.0
13.07.24 Ilves Tampere II vs FC Honka Espoo 2-1 47% 49% -2.8 19% 26% -29.4 34% 38% -9.8
17.07.24 FC Honka Espoo vs VJS Vantaa 1-4 28% 29% -6.0 18% 25% -28.6 55% 58% -5.7
17.07.24 Inter Turku II vs Esbo BK 7-1 92% 95% -3.5 5% 8% -34.8 3% 4% -34.9
26.07.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Inter Turku II 0-1 37% 45% -18.3 18% 26% -28.8 45% 41% 9.3
26.07.24 TPV Tampere vs FC Honka Espoo 2-2 58% 55% 5.4 18% 26% -31.7 24% 31% -22.9
27.07.24 HJS Akatemia vs Esbo BK 6-0 84% 86% -2.0 9% 14% -35.4 7% 10% -35.4
27.07.24 Sexy Poxyt vs Ilves Tampere II 0-2 19% 27% -30.5 15% 22% -32.3 66% 63% 4.9
01.08.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Ilves Tampere II 0-3 63% 62% 2.3 16% 23% -31.2 21% 28% -23.7
03.08.24 HJS Akatemia vs FC Honka Espoo 0-0 71% 68% 3.6 15% 23% -34.0 14% 20% -31.0
04.08.24 Tampere United vs Esbo BK 6-0 90% 93% -2.9 6% 10% -34.9 4% 6% -35.0
10.08.24 Esbo BK vs VJS Vantaa 1-2 7% 11% -34.1 9% 14% -33.8 83% 85% -1.8
10.08.24 Ilves Tampere II vs HJS Akatemia 1-3 30% 38% -20.3 19% 27% -30.1 51% 48% 7.1
10.08.24 Sexy Poxyt vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 0-2 9% 13% -32.5 11% 16% -32.9 80% 81% -1.3
25.08.24 HJS Akatemia vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 1-0 61% 59% 2.9 17% 25% -30.8 22% 28% -20.2
25.08.24 Sexy Poxyt vs Esbo BK 0-4 37% 36% 5.0 17% 24% -27.8 45% 53% -13.9
30.08.24 FC Honka Espoo vs Sexy Poxyt 4-1 87% 89% -2.6 8% 13% -35.7 5% 7% -35.7
31.08.24 TPV Tampere vs HJS Akatemia 0-2 24% 33% -28.6 18% 26% -32.0 58% 53% 10.8
31.08.24 VJS Vantaa vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 2-2 70% 68% 2.0 15% 22% -32.6 15% 21% -27.3
06.09.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs TPV Tampere 2-3 62% 62% -0.9 16% 23% -29.6 22% 26% -15.8
07.09.24 HJS Akatemia vs Tampere United 1-2 49% 48% 3.9 20% 29% -30.6 31% 36% -15.5
07.09.24 Ilves Tampere II vs FC Honka Espoo 4-1 35% 39% -11.5 19% 27% -29.4 46% 47% -0.7
14.09.24 HJS Akatemia vs VJS Vantaa 1-0 45% 45% -0.9 19% 28% -30.1 36% 40% -11.1
14.09.24 Ilves Tampere II vs Esbo BK 2-2 76% 74% 2.8 12% 19% -34.7 12% 18% -34.3
14.09.24 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Inter Turku II 1-4 8% 12% -34.4 9% 14% -33.9 83% 84% -1.7
22.09.24 Esbo BK vs FC Honka Espoo 4-1 22% 32% -31.2 16% 23% -32.4 62% 57% 8.8
22.09.24 Inter Turku II vs HJS Akatemia 2-1 72% 69% 3.7 14% 22% -34.9 14% 21% -33.6
22.09.24 Sexy Poxyt vs Ilves Tampere II 1-1 12% 17% -32.8 12% 18% -33.1 76% 75% 1.3
22.09.24 Tampere United vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 2-0 67% 61% 10.6 15% 23% -35.3 18% 28% -35.2
19.04.25 HPS Helsinki vs HJS Akatemia 0-1 15% 23% -37.0 16% 25% -36.6 70% 64% 9.2
21.04.25 Ilves Tampere II vs Musan Salama 2-1 76% 76% 0.4 12% 18% -32.7 12% 17% -29.7
21.04.25 PPJ vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 3-2 55% 51% 6.6 19% 28% -31.8 26% 34% -22.1
22.04.25 Atlantis FC Helsinki II vs NJS Nurmijärven 2-3 48% 47% 3.9 18% 25% -29.3 34% 41% -16.7
26.04.25 HJS Akatemia vs FC Kiffen Helsinki 2-4 53% 52% 2.9 19% 28% -30.4 27% 32% -15.2
26.04.25 HPS Helsinki vs Musan Salama 1-3 29% 43% -32.6 18% 27% -32.9 53% 42% 25.2
26.04.25 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Atlantis FC Helsinki II 3-0 58% 56% 2.5 18% 26% -30.7 24% 29% -17.8
28.04.25 Ilves Tampere II vs NJS Nurmijärven 8-0 82% 85% -3.6 10% 15% -31.4 8% 11% -24.9
02.05.25 FC Kiffen Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere II 1-2 28% 35% -21.6 18% 26% -30.0 55% 51% 6.4
02.05.25 NJS Nurmijärven vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 1-2 19% 24% -21.4 16% 23% -30.2 65% 65% 0.3
03.05.25 HJS Akatemia vs PPJ 3-3 61% 60% 1.8 18% 26% -31.5 21% 26% -19.5
03.05.25 Musan Salama vs TPV Tampere 1-2 24% 30% -21.9 17% 24% -30.3 59% 58% 2.6
10.05.25 HPS Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere II 3-1 7% 11% -32.3 9% 13% -32.5 84% 86% -2.7
10.05.25 PPJ vs NJS Nurmijärven 3-2 79% 78% 1.1 11% 17% -35.8 10% 15% -35.9
12.05.25 TPV Tampere vs HJS Akatemia 1-1 57% 55% 5.2 18% 27% -31.6 24% 31% -22.3
16.05.25 Musan Salama vs PPJ 2-1 36% 45% -21.8 19% 27% -29.9 45% 40% 13.7
17.05.25 Atlantis FC Helsinki II vs HJS Akatemia 0-5 14% 19% -26.9 15% 22% -31.9 71% 70% 0.7
17.05.25 NJS Nurmijärven vs FC Kiffen Helsinki 1-3 17% 24% -30.1 16% 23% -32.3 68% 65% 5.0
17.05.25 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs HPS Helsinki 1-2 76% 74% 2.9 13% 20% -36.4 11% 17% -36.5
18.05.25 Ilves Tampere II vs TPV Tampere 5-1 58% 54% 8.0 18% 26% -32.4 24% 32% -26.2
23.05.25 PPJ vs Ilves Tampere II 2-4 30% 31% -4.2 18% 24% -27.9 52% 56% -6.6
23.05.25 TPV Tampere vs NJS Nurmijärven 5-0 82% 83% -1.2 10% 15% -34.5 8% 12% -33.8
24.05.25 Atlantis FC Helsinki II vs Musan Salama 1-7 23% 31% -26.5 17% 25% -31.4 60% 56% 6.6
24.05.25 HJS Akatemia vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 0-1 54% 54% -0.7 19% 27% -30.4 28% 32% -13.9
30.05.25 Musan Salama vs FC Kiffen Helsinki 1-0 35% 43% -18.4 19% 26% -29.1 46% 42% 8.8
01.06.25 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs TPV Tampere 1-2 48% 51% -6.8 19% 27% -29.1 33% 34% -3.5
02.06.25 Ilves Tampere II vs Atlantis FC Helsinki II 2-2 92% 95% -3.4 5% 8% -34.9 3% 4% -34.9
02.06.25 NJS Nurmijärven vs HJS Akatemia 1-1 14% 20% -30.9 14% 21% -32.6 72% 70% 2.2
06.06.25 HJS Akatemia vs Ilves Tampere II 2-2 39% 44% -13.1 20% 28% -29.7 42% 41% 2.5
06.06.25 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs FC Kiffen Helsinki 4-1 46% 47% -2.1 20% 28% -29.8 35% 38% -9.1
08.06.25 NJS Nurmijärven vs Musan Salama 1-1 18% 25% -28.6 16% 23% -31.9 66% 64% 4.3
13.06.25 HPS Helsinki vs NJS Nurmijärven 1-0 56% 49% 15.5 19% 29% -33.0 24% 34% -28.9
14.06.25 Ilves Tampere II vs Pallo-Iirot Rauma 1-5 68% 65% 3.7 15% 23% -32.9 17% 24% -28.8
14.06.25 Musan Salama vs HJS Akatemia 0-2 28% 36% -20.9 19% 28% -30.5 52% 49% 7.5
18.06.25 Pallo-Iirot Rauma vs Musan Salama 0-3 65% 64% 2.5 16% 24% -31.4 18% 24% -22.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 204 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Honka Espoo 1847.52
2 AIFK Turku 1635.47
3 Ilves Tampere II 1599.25
4 HJS Akatemia 1508.60
5 EPS Pallo 1466.18
6 Pallo-Iirot Rauma 1451.16
7 Esbo BK 1450.99
8 GrIFK Grankulla 1385.16
9 Musan Salama 1299.54
10 NJS Nurmijärven 1190.10

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Honka Espoo 1688.93
2 Ilves Tampere II 1569.06
3 EPS Pallo 1502.19
4 AIFK Turku 1485.19
5 Pallo-Iirot Rauma 1434.89
6 HJS Akatemia 1407.10
7 Esbo BK 1311.08
8 Musan Salama 1178.41
9 GrIFK Grankulla 1171.41
10 NJS Nurmijärven 1000.26