ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 382
Avg Goals 3.27
Avg Home 1.78
Avg Away 1.49
Home Win % 43.5%
Draw % 20.7%
Away Win % 35.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 382
Avg Brier Score 0.4521
Pick Accuracy 65.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4625
Market Brier 0.4502
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 13
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 76.9% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 10 of 382 matches had at least one · staked 13.00, profit -13.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 10 0.0% 10.00 -10.00 -100.0%
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 5.5% 1.6% 189
10–20% 15.2% 14.7% 191
20–30% 25.7% 25.4% 315
30–40% 34.8% 35.9% 117
40–50% 44.8% 42.9% 77
50–60% 55.0% 58.3% 60
60–70% 65.4% 70.0% 60
70–80% 74.9% 75.9% 54
80–90% 84.8% 88.9% 45
90–100% 93.3% 100.0% 38
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
15.09.23 Le Havre AC (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 0-4 4% 6% -26.4 9% 10% -10.5 87% 93% -6.9
16.09.23 Fleury 91 (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 3-1 74% 80% -7.1 17% 20% -12.9 8% 11% -23.4
16.09.23 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 2-0 74% 80% -7.9 17% 18% -8.9 10% 13% -24.3
16.09.23 OSC Lille (W) vs Paris FC (W) 0-4 7% 8% -6.9 15% 14% 4.9 78% 88% -11.2
16.09.23 Stade Reims (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 2-0 62% 66% -6.4 22% 25% -10.4 16% 21% -23.8
17.09.23 Girondins Bordeaux (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 0-3 8% 9% -9.4 17% 17% -0.5 76% 85% -10.9
29.09.23 Paris FC (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 3-1 48% 57% -15.3 28% 29% -5.5 24% 26% -7.1
30.09.23 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 1-1 17% 20% -17.1 24% 26% -8.2 59% 66% -10.0
30.09.23 Dijon FCO (W) vs OSC Lille (W) 3-3 49% 54% -9.8 26% 28% -5.4 25% 30% -17.5
30.09.23 Girondins Bordeaux (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 1-1 49% 55% -10.7 27% 29% -6.0 24% 29% -15.7
01.10.23 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 0-1 18% 20% -12.1 27% 29% -9.2 56% 63% -11.9
06.10.23 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 0-1 4% 5% -20.4 9% 9% -1.7 87% 94% -7.5
06.10.23 Le Havre AC (W) vs Paris FC (W) 1-4 11% 13% -17.6 18% 18% -2.3 71% 79% -10.2
07.10.23 Montpellier HSC (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 3-1 69% 76% -10.0 20% 22% -6.4 11% 13% -15.4
07.10.23 OSC Lille (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 2-1 17% 23% -23.6 23% 26% -11.2 59% 63% -6.3
07.10.23 Stade Reims (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 1-0 59% 66% -10.8 24% 26% -5.5 17% 20% -14.6
08.10.23 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 4-0 94% 99% -5.3 5% 6% -17.9 1% 2% -29.1
13.10.23 Girondins Bordeaux (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 1-1 18% 19% -7.2 26% 27% -5.1 57% 66% -13.8
14.10.23 Fleury 91 (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 2-1 71% 79% -10.1 19% 20% -4.1 10% 11% -12.1
14.10.23 Le Havre AC (W) vs OSC Lille (W) 2-2 51% 58% -13.1 26% 27% -3.7 24% 28% -14.4
14.10.23 Paris FC (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 2-0 83% 89% -7.5 13% 14% -11.1 5% 6% -22.0
14.10.23 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 0-0 84% 90% -7.3 11% 12% -8.6 5% 7% -23.9
20.10.23 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 1-1 46% 53% -14.3 29% 31% -7.2 26% 29% -10.3
21.10.23 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 1-2 31% 36% -13.9 28% 29% -5.2 41% 47% -12.2
21.10.23 OSC Lille (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 0-4 3% 4% -24.3 10% 11% -14.5 87% 93% -6.1
22.10.23 Dijon FCO (W) vs Paris FC (W) 0-6 9% 11% -18.2 16% 17% -5.3 75% 82% -8.6
22.10.23 Stade Reims (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 1-5 2% 2% -24.1 6% 7% -13.6 92% 97% -5.0
03.11.23 OSC Lille (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 0-0 17% 21% -17.1 25% 28% -9.3 58% 64% -9.7
04.11.23 Fleury 91 (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 2-1 65% 70% -7.0 21% 24% -10.0 13% 17% -21.5
04.11.23 Le Havre AC (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 3-3 52% 60% -13.4 26% 27% -4.2 22% 25% -12.3
05.11.23 Paris FC (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 1-6 14% 17% -18.1 22% 24% -8.2 63% 70% -9.4
10.11.23 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 5-0 85% 92% -6.9 10% 11% -8.8 4% 6% -24.9
11.11.23 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Paris FC (W) 1-6 6% 7% -16.6 12% 11% 6.8 82% 91% -9.5
11.11.23 Fleury 91 (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 2-1 66% 73% -10.0 22% 23% -6.8 13% 15% -16.8
11.11.23 Stade Reims (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 0-0 40% 44% -11.0 28% 30% -6.7 32% 38% -16.3
12.11.23 Dijon FCO (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 2-5 5% 7% -25.0 13% 15% -14.9 82% 88% -6.1
18.11.23 Le Havre AC (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 2-0 47% 53% -12.0 27% 29% -6.6 26% 30% -15.1
18.11.23 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 2-1 63% 68% -7.7 22% 24% -9.0 15% 19% -21.4
18.11.23 OSC Lille (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 1-2 40% 43% -6.9 29% 31% -7.4 31% 37% -17.4
19.11.23 Paris FC (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 1-0 83% 90% -7.8 11% 11% -0.9 6% 7% -21.2
19.11.23 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 2-1 75% 81% -8.1 17% 19% -10.4 8% 11% -21.7
24.11.23 Fleury 91 (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 2-2 55% 60% -9.1 25% 28% -8.3 20% 24% -19.0
25.11.23 Dijon FCO (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 3-2 41% 44% -8.0 29% 32% -8.7 30% 36% -16.9
26.11.23 EA Guingamp (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 1-5 1% 2% -31.7 4% 5% -24.2 95% 99% -3.9
26.11.23 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 4-1 72% 78% -7.6 19% 21% -11.6 9% 12% -21.8
26.11.23 Stade Reims (W) vs Paris FC (W) 1-1 9% 11% -18.0 18% 20% -8.2 72% 80% -9.7
08.12.23 Olympique Lyon (W) vs OSC Lille (W) 5-0 95% 99% -3.6 3% 4% -25.9 1% 2% -32.7
09.12.23 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 2-1 42% 50% -16.9 28% 29% -5.1 31% 33% -8.4
09.12.23 Dijon FCO (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 1-0 35% 39% -11.1 30% 32% -8.2 36% 42% -14.7
09.12.23 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Paris FC (W) 1-4 19% 22% -12.5 24% 24% -2.2 57% 65% -12.6
09.12.23 Stade Reims (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 2-0 23% 24% -7.7 27% 29% -5.2 50% 60% -15.3
10.12.23 Le Havre AC (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 1-1 8% 10% -19.8 16% 17% -6.3 76% 83% -8.4
15.12.23 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 2-1 56% 62% -9.5 25% 27% -7.3 19% 23% -17.5
16.12.23 EA Guingamp (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 1-1 39% 44% -13.0 29% 30% -5.5 33% 37% -11.7
16.12.23 Fleury 91 (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 1-3 4% 6% -28.7 10% 12% -17.8 86% 92% -5.9
16.12.23 Girondins Bordeaux (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 1-4 43% 47% -6.8 28% 31% -7.9 28% 35% -18.7
17.12.23 Paris FC (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 1-2 36% 43% -15.4 28% 30% -6.2 36% 40% -11.1
09.01.24 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs OSC Lille (W) 6-0 94% 99% -5.5 5% 6% -12.3 2% 2% -27.3
10.01.24 Dijon FCO (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 0-5 20% 22% -12.1 25% 26% -4.5 55% 63% -12.6
10.01.24 EA Guingamp (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 0-1 21% 25% -15.5 25% 26% -3.9 54% 61% -11.6
10.01.24 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Paris FC (W) 1-0 77% 84% -7.9 15% 17% -10.1 8% 10% -24.1
17.01.24 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 4-0 77% 81% -5.1 15% 18% -17.4 8% 11% -29.3
20.01.24 OSC Lille (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 2-2 40% 45% -11.1 28% 29% -5.5 32% 38% -15.8
20.01.24 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 8-1 88% 94% -6.7 8% 9% -8.0 4% 5% -27.3
21.01.24 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 1-0 19% 22% -14.9 24% 24% -3.3 58% 65% -12.0
21.01.24 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 1-2 6% 6% -7.6 12% 11% 12.5 83% 92% -10.0
02.02.24 Fleury 91 (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 1-1 12% 13% -12.9 20% 20% -2.1 69% 78% -11.2
03.02.24 Dijon FCO (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 1-0 19% 22% -15.6 25% 26% -6.2 57% 64% -11.2
03.02.24 Le Havre AC (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 4-2 51% 57% -10.6 27% 29% -6.6 22% 26% -15.4
03.02.24 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 4-1 95% 99% -3.6 3% 5% -26.9 1% 2% -32.9
04.02.24 Paris FC (W) vs OSC Lille (W) 3-2 89% 95% -7.0 8% 8% -5.6 4% 5% -25.7
09.02.24 Stade Reims (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 0-3 28% 30% -8.6 28% 30% -6.2 44% 52% -15.4
10.02.24 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 2-0 43% 49% -12.7 28% 29% -5.8 30% 35% -14.8
10.02.24 EA Guingamp (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 3-1 16% 19% -14.4 24% 25% -5.7 60% 68% -11.6
10.02.24 Girondins Bordeaux (W) vs Paris FC (W) 2-6 7% 8% -18.3 14% 15% -4.4 79% 87% -9.1
10.02.24 OSC Lille (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 3-3 25% 27% -8.7 26% 26% -1.9 49% 59% -15.9
11.02.24 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 1-1 69% 72% -5.2 20% 24% -15.0 11% 15% -25.4
17.02.24 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 4-3 35% 40% -11.9 29% 31% -6.7 36% 42% -14.6
17.02.24 Le Havre AC (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 1-1 60% 68% -11.4 23% 24% -3.8 17% 20% -15.8
17.02.24 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 5-0 92% 97% -5.5 6% 8% -18.2 2% 3% -29.1
02.03.24 Fleury 91 (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 1-0 59% 65% -9.7 24% 26% -7.5 17% 20% -16.8
02.03.24 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 2-1 70% 76% -8.2 20% 22% -9.2 11% 13% -19.9
02.03.24 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 4-0 86% 93% -7.5 9% 10% -0.9 5% 6% -23.9
03.03.24 Dijon FCO (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 1-3 2% 2% -31.0 4% 5% -21.0 94% 99% -4.8
06.03.24 Paris FC (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 3-2 76% 85% -10.7 15% 15% 2.7 8% 10% -15.5
15.03.24 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Fleury 91 (W) 4-0 86% 91% -5.4 10% 12% -16.3 4% 6% -28.8
16.03.24 EA Guingamp (W) vs Paris FC (W) 0-4 7% 9% -26.4 12% 14% -10.8 81% 87% -6.8
16.03.24 Girondins Bordeaux (W) vs Dijon FCO (W) 0-2 37% 43% -14.1 29% 31% -6.4 34% 38% -9.4
16.03.24 Paris Saint Germain (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 5-0 90% 95% -5.8 7% 9% -14.1 3% 4% -27.7
17.03.24 Le Havre AC (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 3-3 33% 36% -8.7 28% 30% -6.3 38% 47% -17.4
22.03.24 Fleury 91 (W) vs Paris FC (W) 2-1 22% 26% -14.1 26% 28% -5.8 52% 59% -11.9
23.03.24 AS Saint-Etienne (W) vs Girondins Bordeaux (W) 1-0 48% 54% -11.0 27% 29% -7.2 25% 29% -16.3
23.03.24 Dijon FCO (W) vs EA Guingamp (W) 2-0 45% 51% -11.4 29% 32% -8.6 26% 29% -12.4
23.03.24 Le Havre AC (W) vs Stade Reims (W) 0-2 49% 53% -7.8 27% 29% -8.1 24% 30% -19.4
23.03.24 OSC Lille (W) vs Olympique Lyon (W) 0-7 1% 2% -28.1 4% 5% -16.0 94% 99% -4.9
24.03.24 Montpellier HSC (W) vs Paris Saint Germain (W) 1-3 13% 14% -11.4 19% 19% 1.7 68% 78% -12.3
29.03.24 Paris FC (W) vs Montpellier HSC (W) 3-0 65% 73% -11.3 21% 22% -2.8 14% 17% -15.3
30.03.24 EA Guingamp (W) vs AS Saint-Etienne (W) 3-4 34% 38% -11.5 30% 32% -8.1 36% 42% -13.9
30.03.24 Fleury 91 (W) vs OSC Lille (W) 2-2 75% 82% -8.9 17% 18% -6.7 8% 10% -18.5
31.03.24 Olympique Lyon (W) vs Le Havre AC (W) 3-0 94% 99% -4.7 4% 5% -11.6 1% 2% -27.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 382 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olympique Lyon (W) 2357.11
2 Paris Saint Germain (W) 2067.59
3 Paris FC (W) 2018.47
4 Olympique Marseille (W) 1838.04
5 FC Nantes (W) 1717.67
6 Fleury 91 (W) 1708.79
7 RC Lens (W) 1673.94
8 RC Strasbourg (W) 1649.59
9 US Saint-Malo (W) 1644.70
10 Le Havre AC (W) 1620.23
11 Montpellier HSC (W) 1578.40
12 Toulouse FC (W) 1468.40

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olympique Lyon (W) 2403.28
2 Paris Saint Germain (W) 1979.11
3 Paris FC (W) 1817.62
4 Fleury 91 (W) 1778.99
5 Montpellier HSC (W) 1723.27
6 RC Strasbourg (W) 1678.91
7 FC Nantes (W) 1671.73
8 Olympique Marseille (W) 1666.90
9 RC Lens (W) 1554.08
10 US Saint-Malo (W) 1541.08
11 Le Havre AC (W) 1512.26
12 Toulouse FC (W) 1379.73