ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 870
Avg Goals 2.49
Avg Home 1.36
Avg Away 1.13
Home Win % 42.1%
Draw % 28.3%
Away Win % 29.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 870
Avg Brier Score 0.6381
Pick Accuracy 44.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6409
Market Brier 0.6375
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 870 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.6% 0.0% 2
10–20% 16.9% 19.5% 149
20–30% 26.6% 27.1% 1224
30–40% 34.5% 34.5% 600
40–50% 44.5% 43.2% 400
50–60% 54.6% 52.3% 176
60–70% 64.0% 62.5% 56
70–80% 74.1% 66.7% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 AC Ajaccio vs Rodez AF 1-1 50% 51% -1.4 29% 33% -13.4 21% 24% -10.4
05.08.23 Amiens SC vs US Quevilly 1-0 39% 40% -1.8 28% 31% -8.9 33% 37% -11.8
05.08.23 Annecy FC vs EA Guingamp 1-4 30% 29% 3.9 30% 33% -10.0 40% 45% -11.3
05.08.23 AS Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38 0-1 61% 65% -6.6 22% 24% -8.0 17% 18% -9.1
05.08.23 Stade Lavallois vs SCO Angers 1-0 37% 38% -2.3 30% 33% -10.3 33% 36% -8.6
05.08.23 US Concarneau vs SC Bastia 0-0 34% 33% 3.3 30% 33% -11.1 36% 42% -13.8
05.08.23 USL Dunkerque vs AC Troyes 2-2 37% 38% -5.0 28% 30% -8.0 36% 39% -9.3
07.08.23 Pau FC vs Girondins Bordeaux 3-0 24% 24% -1.8 27% 29% -7.0 49% 53% -8.4
12.08.23 AC Troyes vs Stade Lavallois 3-1 42% 44% -5.5 28% 31% -8.6 30% 32% -7.4
12.08.23 AJ Auxerre vs Amiens SC 0-1 57% 58% -1.3 24% 27% -11.0 19% 22% -14.7
12.08.23 EA Guingamp vs USL Dunkerque 0-1 50% 53% -4.2 27% 29% -9.2 23% 25% -8.4
12.08.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs Paris FC 2-0 44% 47% -5.4 28% 31% -9.4 28% 31% -8.7
12.08.23 Rodez AF vs AS Saint-Etienne 2-1 31% 32% -3.0 27% 29% -7.1 41% 47% -11.0
12.08.23 SC Bastia vs Valenciennes FC 3-0 57% 61% -7.7 25% 28% -8.4 18% 18% -1.2
12.08.23 SCO Angers vs Annecy FC 0-0 58% 58% -1.6 25% 29% -12.3 17% 20% -12.9
12.08.23 SM Caen vs Pau FC 2-0 58% 61% -6.0 24% 26% -7.7 18% 19% -5.5
12.08.23 US Quevilly vs AC Ajaccio 0-1 41% 44% -7.6 30% 34% -10.8 29% 29% -2.4
19.08.23 Amiens SC vs SC Bastia 2-1 40% 41% -2.5 29% 32% -10.2 31% 35% -10.3
19.08.23 Annecy FC vs USL Dunkerque 3-0 36% 36% 0.8 30% 33% -11.0 34% 39% -12.5
19.08.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs AC Troyes 0-0 43% 48% -9.5 27% 29% -7.2 30% 31% -3.8
19.08.23 Pau FC vs Paris FC 2-0 39% 41% -3.5 29% 32% -10.2 32% 35% -9.9
19.08.23 Stade Lavallois vs Rodez AF 1-0 48% 49% -1.7 28% 31% -10.6 25% 28% -11.7
19.08.23 Valenciennes FC vs EA Guingamp 0-0 31% 31% -1.3 29% 32% -8.9 40% 43% -8.6
21.08.23 AC Ajaccio vs Girondins Bordeaux 0-0 29% 31% -5.5 29% 32% -9.4 42% 44% -6.2
26.08.23 AJ Auxerre vs Grenoble Foot 38 0-0 53% 54% -1.6 25% 28% -9.5 22% 25% -13.3
26.08.23 EA Guingamp vs Pau FC 4-0 55% 58% -4.2 26% 29% -10.3 19% 21% -8.9
26.08.23 Girondins Bordeaux vs Amiens SC 2-0 56% 56% -1.4 24% 27% -10.6 20% 24% -15.5
26.08.23 Rodez AF vs Valenciennes FC 0-1 48% 50% -3.8 28% 32% -11.7 23% 26% -8.7
26.08.23 SC Bastia vs AC Troyes 3-2 47% 52% -8.8 27% 29% -6.8 26% 27% -3.5
26.08.23 SM Caen vs AC Ajaccio 3-0 50% 55% -7.6 27% 29% -8.9 23% 24% -4.7
26.08.23 US Quevilly vs Stade Lavallois 0-0 45% 49% -7.0 29% 32% -9.9 26% 26% -2.8
26.08.23 USL Dunkerque vs SCO Angers 0-1 35% 37% -6.3 28% 31% -7.7 37% 39% -6.0
28.08.23 Annecy FC vs AS Saint-Etienne 1-1 32% 32% -2.3 28% 30% -7.9 41% 45% -10.8
02.09.23 AC Ajaccio vs USL Dunkerque 2-2 47% 51% -6.0 28% 31% -9.8 24% 26% -5.0
02.09.23 Amiens SC vs EA Guingamp 4-1 43% 43% -1.1 28% 31% -9.5 29% 32% -11.0
02.09.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs SC Bastia 0-0 43% 45% -5.9 29% 32% -10.6 28% 31% -7.8
02.09.23 Pau FC vs Rodez AF 2-2 37% 38% -3.0 29% 32% -9.6 34% 38% -9.3
02.09.23 Stade Lavallois vs SM Caen 2-1 30% 30% 0.2 29% 32% -9.5 40% 45% -11.0
02.09.23 US Concarneau vs Annecy FC 1-1 45% 45% -1.4 28% 31% -9.9 27% 31% -12.2
16.09.23 AJ Auxerre vs Pau FC 2-2 65% 68% -5.1 21% 23% -8.5 14% 15% -9.8
16.09.23 Annecy FC vs AC Troyes 0-0 43% 45% -5.7 28% 30% -7.9 29% 31% -6.4
16.09.23 Paris FC vs Amiens SC 3-0 38% 38% -1.4 29% 32% -9.9 33% 37% -10.9
16.09.23 Rodez AF vs SCO Angers 4-1 36% 37% -3.2 29% 32% -9.5 35% 38% -9.1
16.09.23 SC Bastia vs Stade Lavallois 0-3 44% 47% -4.7 28% 31% -9.2 27% 29% -7.1
16.09.23 USL Dunkerque vs Grenoble Foot 38 0-0 38% 38% -2.4 29% 32% -10.2 34% 38% -11.2
18.09.23 EA Guingamp vs AC Ajaccio 3-0 44% 47% -5.3 30% 33% -11.1 26% 28% -5.4
23.09.23 AC Ajaccio vs Paris FC 2-1 45% 47% -3.7 29% 32% -9.8 26% 28% -6.0
23.09.23 Amiens SC vs Valenciennes FC 0-0 53% 56% -5.9 26% 29% -9.0 21% 23% -7.0
23.09.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs US Quevilly 2-1 42% 44% -5.4 29% 32% -10.2 29% 31% -7.2
23.09.23 Pau FC vs Annecy FC 0-3 35% 36% -2.4 29% 32% -9.6 36% 40% -10.0
23.09.23 SCO Angers vs SC Bastia 2-0 47% 50% -6.2 27% 30% -9.4 26% 28% -7.8
23.09.23 Stade Lavallois vs EA Guingamp 2-1 40% 42% -3.4 30% 33% -11.2 30% 33% -9.5
23.09.23 USL Dunkerque vs Rodez AF 1-2 41% 42% -3.2 29% 32% -10.2 30% 33% -9.5
26.09.23 AJ Auxerre vs Annecy FC 4-0 65% 68% -5.3 21% 23% -7.4 14% 15% -8.5
26.09.23 Amiens SC vs AC Ajaccio 0-0 43% 44% -3.6 30% 33% -11.4 28% 30% -8.7
26.09.23 EA Guingamp vs Girondins Bordeaux 0-0 34% 38% -8.7 28% 31% -8.8 37% 39% -5.5
26.09.23 Paris FC vs Stade Lavallois 0-1 40% 41% -2.4 30% 33% -11.5 31% 34% -11.1
26.09.23 Rodez AF vs AC Troyes 2-1 43% 45% -4.5 27% 29% -7.5 29% 32% -8.9
26.09.23 SC Bastia vs Pau FC 1-4 53% 56% -4.3 26% 29% -9.1 21% 23% -8.1
26.09.23 SM Caen vs Grenoble Foot 38 1-2 51% 53% -3.9 27% 30% -10.9 22% 25% -10.4
30.09.23 AJ Auxerre vs Rodez AF 3-1 62% 65% -5.4 22% 24% -7.8 16% 18% -10.7
30.09.23 Annecy FC vs Paris FC 2-2 39% 41% -4.2 29% 32% -9.6 32% 34% -8.0
30.09.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs Girondins Bordeaux 2-0 33% 36% -7.1 29% 32% -9.5 38% 40% -5.9
30.09.23 Pau FC vs Amiens SC 1-0 33% 33% -1.7 29% 31% -8.2 39% 43% -9.4
30.09.23 SM Caen vs EA Guingamp 0-1 48% 51% -4.0 28% 31% -10.3 24% 26% -9.2
30.09.23 Stade Lavallois vs Valenciennes FC 1-0 52% 55% -5.6 27% 31% -10.7 21% 22% -5.8
30.09.23 USL Dunkerque vs US Quevilly 0-1 39% 41% -4.5 29% 32% -9.6 32% 34% -7.7
02.10.23 AC Ajaccio vs SC Bastia 2-0 42% 43% -3.8 31% 34% -11.5 28% 29% -5.9
04.10.23 AS Saint-Etienne vs USL Dunkerque 2-0 59% 62% -5.9 23% 24% -6.2 18% 20% -8.4
07.10.23 Amiens SC vs SCO Angers 1-4 38% 39% -4.4 29% 32% -9.6 33% 36% -8.3
07.10.23 AS Saint-Etienne vs AC Ajaccio 0-0 48% 49% -2.6 28% 32% -11.7 24% 27% -10.1
07.10.23 EA Guingamp vs Grenoble Foot 38 2-2 43% 45% -4.5 28% 31% -9.3 28% 31% -8.1
07.10.23 Girondins Bordeaux vs Stade Lavallois 0-1 51% 52% -2.3 27% 31% -10.9 22% 24% -9.9
07.10.23 Rodez AF vs SM Caen 5-3 38% 40% -5.2 29% 32% -9.3 33% 35% -6.5
07.10.23 SC Bastia vs Annecy FC 2-1 46% 48% -3.4 28% 31% -10.1 26% 29% -9.3
07.10.23 US Concarneau vs USL Dunkerque 4-3 41% 43% -5.1 28% 31% -8.6 31% 33% -8.2
07.10.23 US Quevilly vs Pau FC 2-2 51% 54% -4.7 26% 29% -10.1 22% 24% -9.6
21.10.23 AC Ajaccio vs Pau FC 2-0 54% 56% -4.0 27% 31% -11.3 19% 20% -6.0
21.10.23 Annecy FC vs Amiens SC 1-1 38% 39% -3.5 29% 32% -9.3 33% 36% -7.9
21.10.23 EA Guingamp vs US Quevilly 2-2 44% 45% -3.6 29% 32% -10.1 27% 29% -7.5
21.10.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs Valenciennes FC 3-3 55% 59% -5.8 26% 29% -9.7 19% 20% -6.0
21.10.23 Rodez AF vs SC Bastia 1-1 49% 53% -6.5 27% 29% -8.2 24% 25% -4.9
21.10.23 USL Dunkerque vs Paris FC 1-3 37% 38% -3.1 29% 31% -8.6 35% 38% -9.4
23.10.23 Stade Lavallois vs AS Saint-Etienne 0-1 40% 41% -2.6 29% 32% -9.9 31% 34% -9.6
28.10.23 AJ Auxerre vs USL Dunkerque 0-1 70% 75% -6.0 18% 19% -4.2 12% 12% -7.0
28.10.23 Amiens SC vs Stade Lavallois 0-0 39% 40% -2.7 30% 33% -10.8 31% 34% -9.1
28.10.23 Girondins Bordeaux vs Rodez AF 2-2 57% 62% -6.8 24% 25% -5.7 19% 20% -5.4
28.10.23 Pau FC vs Grenoble Foot 38 3-2 30% 31% -1.5 28% 31% -7.6 41% 45% -9.2
28.10.23 SC Bastia vs EA Guingamp 0-0 36% 36% -1.9 29% 32% -9.1 35% 38% -9.0
28.10.23 US Concarneau vs AC Ajaccio 2-1 33% 34% -2.8 31% 34% -10.9 36% 39% -7.4
28.10.23 US Quevilly vs Annecy FC 1-2 48% 50% -4.4 28% 31% -10.4 24% 26% -8.1
04.11.23 Annecy FC vs Stade Lavallois 1-3 33% 34% -2.0 30% 33% -10.4 37% 41% -9.5
04.11.23 Grenoble Foot 38 vs AC Ajaccio 0-3 42% 43% -2.4 30% 34% -11.7 28% 30% -7.6
04.11.23 SC Bastia vs Girondins Bordeaux 3-1 27% 28% -2.2 28% 30% -8.1 45% 50% -10.1
04.11.23 US Quevilly vs Rodez AF 3-1 42% 44% -5.4 28% 31% -8.6 30% 32% -7.5
04.11.23 USL Dunkerque vs Amiens SC 0-1 32% 33% -2.6 29% 31% -8.2 39% 43% -8.7
06.11.23 EA Guingamp vs AJ Auxerre 2-1 32% 34% -5.0 28% 30% -7.6 40% 43% -8.4
11.11.23 AC Ajaccio vs AC Troyes 1-0 52% 55% -5.5 27% 30% -10.3 21% 22% -6.0
11.11.23 Amiens SC vs Grenoble Foot 38 1-2 41% 42% -1.9 29% 32% -10.0 30% 33% -9.8
11.11.23 Girondins Bordeaux vs Annecy FC 3-1 62% 65% -5.4 23% 25% -8.7 15% 17% -7.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 870 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AS Saint-Etienne 2037.86
2 FC Nantes 1989.76
3 Red Star 93 1946.33
4 Stade Reims 1938.64
5 Montpellier HSC 1907.75
6 FC Metz 1907.23
7 AS Nancy Lorraine 1897.63
8 Dijon FC 1894.22
9 EA Guingamp 1871.29
10 Rodez AF 1858.54
11 Pau FC 1854.49
12 FC Sochaux 1851.63
13 Annecy FC 1848.48
14 US Boulogne 1833.56
15 USL Dunkerque 1825.98
16 Stade Lavallois 1810.91
17 Grenoble Foot 38 1756.33
18 Clermont Foot 1752.05

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AS Saint-Etienne 1986.94
2 AS Nancy Lorraine 1905.27
3 Montpellier HSC 1890.38
4 Stade Reims 1889.23
5 FC Nantes 1882.77
6 FC Metz 1867.88
7 Red Star 93 1862.78
8 Pau FC 1834.05
9 EA Guingamp 1815.61
10 Annecy FC 1813.16
11 Rodez AF 1812.57
12 Dijon FC 1803.38
13 US Boulogne 1790.85
14 FC Sochaux 1782.54
15 USL Dunkerque 1772.46
16 Clermont Foot 1734.75
17 Grenoble Foot 38 1726.80
18 Stade Lavallois 1703.50