ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 444
Avg Goals 3.27
Avg Home 1.75
Avg Away 1.52
Home Win % 45.3%
Draw % 16.2%
Away Win % 38.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 444
Avg Brier Score 0.4451
Pick Accuracy 68.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4470
Market Brier 0.4471
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 444 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.2% 6.2% 209
10–20% 15.5% 11.8% 305
20–30% 23.9% 22.0% 305
30–40% 34.4% 36.0% 86
40–50% 44.8% 52.2% 90
50–60% 55.4% 55.4% 74
60–70% 64.4% 69.0% 87
70–80% 75.2% 78.3% 83
80–90% 84.9% 88.7% 62
90–100% 93.1% 93.5% 31
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
15.09.23 SC Freiburg (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 2-2 5% 6% -21.0 10% 12% -21.2 86% 91% -5.8
16.09.23 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 1-5 24% 23% 5.6 22% 26% -13.2 54% 64% -15.7
16.09.23 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 9-0 70% 72% -3.0 17% 22% -22.2 13% 17% -23.2
17.09.23 1. FC Köln (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 2-1 30% 32% -7.4 24% 28% -15.3 47% 53% -11.5
17.09.23 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 2-0 9% 12% -24.6 15% 20% -24.0 75% 78% -3.5
17.09.23 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 3-0 86% 93% -7.2 9% 11% -14.0 5% 6% -11.8
29.09.23 RB Leipzig (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 3-2 45% 47% -3.0 24% 29% -17.5 31% 36% -15.8
30.09.23 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 6-0 76% 84% -9.2 15% 17% -12.5 9% 9% -0.1
30.09.23 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1-3 21% 20% 2.5 21% 24% -12.5 59% 68% -14.4
01.10.23 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 2-4 21% 22% -7.2 22% 26% -15.2 58% 64% -9.5
01.10.23 MSV Duisburg (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 2-2 20% 18% 8.4 21% 24% -12.2 59% 68% -14.0
02.10.23 FC Bayern München (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 2-0 95% 99% -4.4 4% 5% -24.0 1% 2% -23.3
06.10.23 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 1-0 89% 93% -4.3 8% 11% -28.6 3% 4% -28.9
07.10.23 1. FC Köln (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 4-1 60% 65% -7.6 21% 26% -17.2 19% 22% -12.0
07.10.23 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 3-1 61% 62% -1.8 20% 25% -20.2 19% 25% -22.2
08.10.23 SC Freiburg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 2-1 49% 52% -5.0 24% 29% -18.2 27% 31% -14.5
08.10.23 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 0-2 5% 6% -23.4 9% 11% -21.0 87% 92% -5.5
09.10.23 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 2-2 66% 75% -11.4 18% 20% -11.1 16% 17% -3.6
13.10.23 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 0-3 3% 3% 11.2 7% 7% -1.9 90% 97% -7.6
14.10.23 FC Bayern München (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 0-0 66% 73% -9.9 19% 22% -14.2 16% 17% -6.3
14.10.23 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 3-0 50% 55% -9.9 24% 29% -16.3 27% 29% -7.0
15.10.23 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 3-0 52% 61% -13.7 23% 26% -14.0 25% 25% 0.3
15.10.23 RB Leipzig (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 0-2 10% 10% -3.1 14% 15% -9.5 76% 85% -10.2
16.10.23 MSV Duisburg (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 0-1 23% 24% -3.0 23% 27% -15.3 54% 61% -11.9
20.10.23 1. FC Köln (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 0-1 23% 27% -14.5 23% 28% -17.9 54% 58% -5.9
21.10.23 SC Freiburg (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 0-2 82% 88% -6.5 11% 14% -17.4 7% 8% -14.8
21.10.23 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 1-1 39% 41% -5.2 26% 31% -17.4 35% 40% -11.3
22.10.23 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 5-1 91% 96% -5.1 6% 8% -28.0 3% 4% -29.3
22.10.23 RB Leipzig (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 0-3 9% 11% -16.5 14% 17% -17.4 77% 83% -6.6
22.10.23 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 2-2 72% 78% -7.7 17% 20% -17.4 11% 13% -12.0
03.11.23 MSV Duisburg (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 1-1 19% 21% -7.7 21% 25% -15.5 60% 66% -9.9
04.11.23 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 2-3 75% 84% -11.1 14% 15% -7.2 11% 11% 1.8
04.11.23 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 0-0 57% 61% -7.1 23% 29% -18.9 20% 22% -10.8
05.11.23 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 1-3 23% 25% -6.1 23% 27% -15.1 54% 60% -10.5
05.11.23 FC Bayern München (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 2-1 39% 43% -10.9 25% 29% -16.0 37% 39% -6.8
06.11.23 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 0-1 17% 21% -17.8 21% 26% -19.4 62% 65% -3.9
10.11.23 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 2-2 63% 67% -6.2 21% 26% -18.6 17% 19% -12.8
11.11.23 RB Leipzig (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 0-5 40% 43% -7.6 26% 31% -17.6 34% 38% -9.7
11.11.23 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 5-0 80% 85% -6.7 13% 15% -17.1 8% 9% -13.3
12.11.23 FC Bayern München (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 2-0 95% 99% -3.7 4% 5% -25.9 1% 1% -25.0
12.11.23 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 4-0 87% 93% -6.5 9% 11% -17.5 4% 5% -11.8
13.11.23 1. FC Köln (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1-2 15% 18% -17.9 18% 22% -18.0 67% 72% -6.5
17.11.23 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 0-3 64% 69% -8.1 20% 24% -17.5 17% 19% -13.0
18.11.23 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 0-2 4% 5% -22.8 7% 9% -19.6 89% 94% -5.5
19.11.23 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 1-1 63% 68% -8.3 21% 25% -17.3 17% 18% -9.0
19.11.23 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 0-2 8% 10% -15.6 14% 17% -18.8 77% 83% -7.1
20.11.23 SC Freiburg (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 3-3 49% 53% -7.2 24% 29% -16.8 27% 30% -11.4
08.12.23 RB Leipzig (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 0-0 72% 78% -7.2 17% 20% -16.9 11% 12% -10.1
09.12.23 1. FC Köln (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 1-4 7% 9% -21.1 11% 14% -19.7 81% 87% -6.4
09.12.23 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 0-1 54% 61% -11.4 23% 28% -16.1 23% 24% -3.3
10.12.23 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 3-1 47% 51% -8.3 23% 28% -15.8 30% 33% -11.3
10.12.23 MSV Duisburg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 0-2 14% 15% -6.3 20% 24% -17.0 65% 71% -8.5
11.12.23 FC Bayern München (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 3-0 77% 83% -7.5 14% 17% -15.9 9% 10% -11.0
15.12.23 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 4-1 78% 82% -4.7 14% 18% -23.3 8% 10% -22.2
16.12.23 1. FC Köln (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 0-1 24% 27% -8.4 24% 29% -17.4 51% 56% -8.7
16.12.23 SC Freiburg (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 0-4 17% 19% -10.1 20% 24% -15.8 63% 68% -8.3
17.12.23 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 1-1 1% 2% -25.5 4% 6% -25.3 94% 99% -4.7
17.12.23 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 2-1 72% 78% -7.7 17% 20% -16.6 12% 13% -11.4
18.12.23 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 1-0 87% 93% -6.7 8% 10% -17.0 4% 5% -16.8
26.01.24 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 2-1 34% 38% -10.6 26% 32% -18.2 39% 42% -5.9
27.01.24 FC Bayern München (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1-0 70% 77% -8.4 17% 20% -15.1 13% 14% -8.7
27.01.24 RB Leipzig (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 0-2 34% 38% -10.6 24% 29% -15.9 42% 47% -9.2
28.01.24 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 1-0 74% 81% -7.9 15% 18% -16.6 11% 12% -13.1
28.01.24 MSV Duisburg (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 1-2 44% 45% -3.0 25% 31% -18.4 31% 36% -15.3
29.01.24 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 1-3 8% 9% -12.6 14% 17% -18.1 78% 83% -6.6
02.02.24 MSV Duisburg (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 0-2 7% 8% -12.4 12% 15% -15.8 80% 86% -6.9
03.02.24 RB Leipzig (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 2-1 41% 43% -4.3 25% 30% -17.0 34% 39% -13.0
03.02.24 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 4-0 72% 75% -4.7 18% 23% -22.1 11% 13% -17.7
04.02.24 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 1-1 9% 10% -11.3 15% 18% -17.1 76% 82% -7.5
04.02.24 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 1-0 63% 68% -8.5 21% 25% -17.1 17% 18% -8.6
05.02.24 FC Bayern München (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 4-0 84% 90% -7.3 10% 12% -15.8 6% 7% -15.6
09.02.24 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 4-4 59% 63% -6.3 22% 27% -18.3 19% 22% -13.0
10.02.24 1. FC Köln (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 0-5 4% 5% -14.6 9% 11% -17.6 86% 93% -6.6
10.02.24 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 1-1 60% 65% -7.7 21% 26% -17.6 19% 21% -12.0
11.02.24 SC Freiburg (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 1-1 71% 76% -6.6 17% 22% -20.0 11% 13% -15.2
11.02.24 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 3-0 65% 68% -5.0 20% 24% -19.6 16% 19% -17.2
12.02.24 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 1-2 14% 17% -14.6 20% 24% -19.3 66% 70% -6.2
16.02.24 RB Leipzig (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 2-1 15% 17% -14.3 19% 24% -18.4 66% 70% -6.8
17.02.24 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 1-9 2% 2% -21.7 5% 7% -23.0 93% 98% -5.4
17.02.24 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 0-3 44% 49% -9.9 25% 31% -17.7 31% 33% -7.9
18.02.24 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1-2 32% 36% -11.4 25% 30% -17.0 43% 45% -6.2
18.02.24 FC Bayern München (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 2-0 84% 89% -6.3 11% 13% -19.2 6% 7% -16.1
18.02.24 MSV Duisburg (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 0-0 24% 25% -2.1 24% 29% -16.1 52% 58% -11.9
08.03.24 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 4-1 79% 85% -6.5 13% 17% -19.8 7% 9% -15.4
09.03.24 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 2-0 86% 92% -6.8 9% 11% -16.7 5% 7% -17.9
09.03.24 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 1-2 17% 19% -8.8 21% 26% -17.1 61% 67% -8.6
10.03.24 1. FC Köln (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W) 2-1 28% 30% -7.1 26% 32% -18.6 46% 50% -8.8
10.03.24 SC Freiburg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 0-0 41% 47% -11.7 25% 31% -17.4 34% 36% -6.1
11.03.24 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 4-0 89% 94% -5.2 7% 9% -24.4 4% 5% -26.6
15.03.24 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs VfL Wolfsburg (W) 2-1 15% 16% -6.9 19% 22% -14.3 66% 74% -9.6
16.03.24 FC Bayern München (W) vs RB Leipzig (W) 5-0 93% 98% -5.0 5% 7% -26.3 2% 2% -25.8
16.03.24 SV Werder Bremen (W) vs SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) 0-0 31% 34% -7.1 27% 33% -19.0 42% 45% -8.7
17.03.24 1. FC Nürnberg (W) vs SC Freiburg (W) 0-0 17% 19% -13.3 19% 23% -16.0 64% 69% -7.3
17.03.24 MSV Duisburg (W) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 1-2 5% 6% -14.5 9% 11% -16.3 86% 92% -6.3
18.03.24 Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs 1. FC Köln (W) 2-0 57% 61% -5.7 23% 29% -19.6 20% 23% -14.0
22.03.24 SC Freiburg (W) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 2-4 28% 31% -10.9 24% 29% -16.6 48% 53% -8.2
23.03.24 1. FC Köln (W) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 3-4 63% 67% -6.3 21% 26% -18.2 16% 18% -11.1
23.03.24 VfL Wolfsburg (W) vs FC Bayern München (W) 0-4 38% 40% -5.6 26% 31% -17.8 37% 42% -12.2
24.03.24 RB Leipzig (W) vs MSV Duisburg (W) 3-0 65% 70% -6.9 20% 24% -17.7 15% 17% -12.1
24.03.24 SG Essen-Schönebeck (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W) 0-0 48% 53% -8.5 26% 31% -18.4 26% 29% -7.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 444 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Bayern München (W) 2236.16
2 VfL Wolfsburg (W) 2033.82
3 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 2013.23
4 Bayer Leverkusen (W) 1853.39
5 SV Werder Bremen (W) 1837.40
6 1. FC Köln (W) 1799.92
7 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1788.31
8 1. FC Union Berlin (W) 1787.28
9 RB Leipzig (W) 1785.52
10 SC Freiburg (W) 1727.99
11 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 1660.96
12 VfB Stuttgart (W) 1650.31
13 Hamburger SV (W) 1619.43
14 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 1531.99

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Bayern München (W) 2169.72
2 VfL Wolfsburg (W) 2037.89
3 Eintracht Frankfurt (W) 1983.02
4 Bayer Leverkusen (W) 1906.37
5 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1765.21
6 RB Leipzig (W) 1760.32
7 SV Werder Bremen (W) 1755.59
8 1. FC Köln (W) 1749.72
9 1. FC Union Berlin (W) 1727.99
10 SC Freiburg (W) 1692.02
11 VfB Stuttgart (W) 1679.81
12 1. FC Nürnberg (W) 1623.81
13 Hamburger SV (W) 1556.96
14 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 1471.36