ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 884
Avg Goals 3.22
Avg Home 1.76
Avg Away 1.46
Home Win % 42.2%
Draw % 25.5%
Away Win % 32.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 884
Avg Brier Score 0.5675
Pick Accuracy 54.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5684
Market Brier 0.5682
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 75.0%
ROI (flat stake) 48.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 884 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit 1.94 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 4 75.0% 4.00 1.94 48.5%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 6.0% 168
10–20% 15.5% 17.0% 465
20–30% 25.0% 26.8% 927
30–40% 35.1% 32.2% 320
40–50% 44.9% 45.5% 246
50–60% 54.7% 49.8% 205
60–70% 64.8% 62.6% 139
70–80% 74.7% 70.5% 105
80–90% 84.4% 92.6% 68
90–100% 91.2% 66.7% 9
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.08.23 Werder Bremen vs FC Bayern München 0-4 8% 12% -30.9 13% 17% -24.8 79% 77% 3.1
19.08.23 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg 1-2 44% 45% -3.4 26% 28% -6.2 30% 32% -6.8
19.08.23 Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig 3-2 44% 41% 8.4 25% 28% -8.6 30% 37% -18.0
19.08.23 Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln 1-0 72% 68% 5.3 16% 20% -18.4 12% 16% -27.8
19.08.23 FC Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach 4-4 35% 36% -2.7 26% 28% -5.9 38% 42% -7.7
19.08.23 VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum 5-0 62% 56% 9.5 21% 26% -18.4 17% 24% -27.6
20.08.23 1. FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 4-1 52% 48% 9.4 26% 30% -14.4 22% 28% -20.9
20.08.23 Eintracht Frankfurt vs SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 68% 67% 0.9 19% 22% -13.4 13% 17% -21.8
25.08.23 RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart 5-1 65% 64% 1.6 20% 23% -11.5 15% 19% -20.5
26.08.23 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 32% 33% -4.5 25% 27% -5.4 43% 47% -7.7
26.08.23 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 44% 48% -8.2 26% 28% -6.2 30% 31% -1.7
26.08.23 Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen 0-3 19% 24% -18.5 23% 26% -11.7 58% 56% 2.6
26.08.23 SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 1-0 60% 58% 4.2 22% 25% -12.9 18% 23% -22.1
26.08.23 SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Union Berlin 1-4 22% 26% -16.2 26% 30% -13.4 52% 50% 3.4
26.08.23 VfL Bochum vs Borussia Dortmund 1-1 13% 17% -25.4 18% 21% -16.6 69% 67% 3.5
27.08.23 FC Bayern München vs FC Augsburg 3-1 90% 93% -2.3 6% 9% -28.2 3% 5% -33.2
27.08.23 FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 38% 40% -5.8 27% 29% -7.0 35% 36% -2.1
01.09.23 Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 81% 80% 1.8 11% 15% -22.6 7% 10% -30.6
02.09.23 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 35% 40% -13.4 25% 27% -6.4 40% 39% 2.1
02.09.23 Bayer Leverkusen vs SV Darmstadt 98 5-1 82% 81% 1.0 12% 15% -22.2 6% 8% -29.4
02.09.23 FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum 2-2 44% 45% -3.1 26% 28% -7.1 30% 33% -9.6
02.09.23 Mönchengladbach vs FC Bayern München 1-2 7% 10% -30.4 11% 15% -24.0 82% 81% 1.8
02.09.23 VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg 5-0 46% 45% 2.1 25% 28% -8.7 28% 33% -15.4
02.09.23 Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 4-0 34% 38% -9.1 27% 29% -6.9 39% 39% -0.2
03.09.23 1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig 0-3 27% 30% -10.1 26% 29% -8.8 47% 48% -1.9
03.09.23 Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln 1-1 47% 47% 1.9 27% 30% -10.7 26% 29% -13.2
15.09.23 FC Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 66% 63% 4.4 19% 22% -14.8 15% 20% -25.1
16.09.23 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 47% 47% 1.6 25% 27% -7.3 28% 32% -14.0
16.09.23 FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart 1-3 37% 39% -6.5 27% 29% -6.5 37% 38% -2.9
16.09.23 RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg 3-0 81% 79% 1.6 12% 15% -20.3 7% 10% -29.0
16.09.23 SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund 2-4 28% 35% -20.5 24% 27% -10.7 48% 44% 7.9
16.09.23 VfL Bochum vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 32% 36% -10.3 28% 30% -9.2 40% 40% 1.1
16.09.23 VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin 2-1 46% 47% -1.1 27% 30% -9.7 27% 29% -9.4
17.09.23 1. FC Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen 4-2 45% 43% 2.8 26% 28% -7.9 30% 35% -14.7
17.09.23 SV Darmstadt 98 vs Mönchengladbach 3-3 38% 42% -8.0 27% 29% -7.7 35% 35% -1.6
22.09.23 VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 74% 74% 0.1 16% 19% -13.7 10% 13% -22.9
23.09.23 1. FC Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0-2 49% 48% 2.1 25% 28% -8.6 26% 30% -14.2
23.09.23 Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 54% 58% -7.7 23% 24% -2.6 23% 24% -2.7
23.09.23 FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 2-1 36% 40% -9.7 27% 29% -7.7 37% 36% 1.0
23.09.23 FC Bayern München vs VfL Bochum 7-0 88% 88% 0.3 8% 11% -27.5 4% 6% -32.3
23.09.23 Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig 0-1 18% 23% -22.6 21% 24% -13.4 62% 59% 4.6
23.09.23 Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln 2-1 37% 42% -10.1 26% 29% -7.4 36% 36% -0.8
24.09.23 Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Heidenheim 4-1 85% 84% 0.9 10% 13% -24.4 5% 7% -30.9
24.09.23 Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg 0-0 44% 45% -4.3 27% 29% -8.0 29% 31% -5.8
29.09.23 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund 1-3 26% 32% -18.4 23% 25% -7.9 51% 48% 6.3
30.09.23 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Union Berlin 1-0 30% 33% -9.2 27% 29% -8.6 43% 43% -1.4
30.09.23 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart 0-2 34% 37% -8.0 27% 29% -6.9 39% 40% -1.6
30.09.23 FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen 0-3 14% 20% -27.8 19% 23% -19.8 67% 62% 7.2
30.09.23 RB Leipzig vs FC Bayern München 2-2 22% 26% -17.3 21% 23% -7.4 57% 56% 0.6
30.09.23 VfL Bochum vs Mönchengladbach 1-3 45% 45% -1.1 26% 28% -7.5 29% 33% -11.9
30.09.23 VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 49% 47% 5.8 26% 29% -11.7 25% 30% -18.0
01.10.23 SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg 2-0 56% 55% 2.4 24% 27% -11.2 20% 24% -17.2
01.10.23 SV Darmstadt 98 vs Werder Bremen 4-2 31% 36% -12.7 25% 27% -6.5 44% 43% 2.3
06.10.23 Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 2-2 45% 47% -3.0 25% 27% -5.9 29% 32% -8.6
07.10.23 Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Union Berlin 4-2 61% 60% 2.6 22% 25% -11.7 17% 21% -19.1
07.10.23 FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 56% 56% 0.7 24% 27% -10.9 20% 24% -16.1
07.10.23 RB Leipzig vs VfL Bochum 0-0 79% 78% 2.3 13% 17% -20.9 7% 11% -28.9
07.10.23 VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 52% 53% -2.1 25% 27% -7.1 23% 26% -8.8
07.10.23 Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 38% 38% 0.1 26% 27% -5.1 36% 40% -10.3
08.10.23 Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln 3-0 81% 79% 1.7 13% 17% -21.6 6% 9% -28.6
08.10.23 Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 59% 57% 4.1 23% 26% -13.2 18% 22% -20.5
08.10.23 FC Bayern München vs SC Freiburg 3-0 90% 89% 0.4 7% 10% -27.1 3% 5% -31.6
20.10.23 Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 1-0 78% 78% -0.3 13% 15% -12.4 9% 11% -24.5
21.10.23 1. FC Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart 0-3 35% 39% -11.2 28% 30% -8.8 38% 36% 3.3
21.10.23 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 49% 50% -2.2 26% 28% -7.4 25% 28% -8.6
21.10.23 FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München 1-3 7% 11% -31.4 12% 17% -26.4 80% 78% 3.6
21.10.23 SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum 2-1 55% 56% -1.2 24% 26% -8.2 21% 24% -12.0
21.10.23 SV Darmstadt 98 vs RB Leipzig 1-3 12% 17% -28.8 17% 21% -21.1 71% 67% 6.5
21.10.23 VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 18% 23% -24.2 21% 26% -16.3 61% 57% 6.8
22.10.23 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg 2-5 43% 43% -0.7 27% 29% -7.2 30% 33% -9.1
22.10.23 1. FC Köln vs Mönchengladbach 3-1 42% 42% 0.7 26% 28% -6.7 32% 36% -11.6
27.10.23 VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 2-2 34% 38% -8.9 26% 29% -7.3 39% 40% -2.1
28.10.23 FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg 3-2 35% 39% -11.8 26% 29% -7.6 39% 38% 1.5
28.10.23 FC Bayern München vs SV Darmstadt 98 8-0 92% 93% -0.2 5% 7% -28.6 2% 3% -31.9
28.10.23 Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 60% 59% 2.0 22% 24% -9.5 18% 23% -18.7
28.10.23 RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Köln 6-0 71% 67% 5.2 18% 22% -19.7 12% 16% -27.8
28.10.23 VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 59% 58% 0.3 22% 24% -8.6 19% 23% -16.2
28.10.23 Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Union Berlin 2-0 34% 36% -6.6 27% 29% -7.6 39% 40% -2.9
29.10.23 Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg 2-1 82% 81% 1.7 12% 15% -22.7 6% 9% -29.9
29.10.23 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund 3-3 27% 33% -19.9 25% 28% -11.2 49% 44% 9.4
04.11.23 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg 1-1 49% 49% -0.3 25% 27% -7.5 26% 30% -12.9
04.11.23 1. FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt 0-3 39% 39% -0.9 29% 32% -10.1 32% 34% -6.8
04.11.23 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 14% 19% -24.2 18% 21% -14.2 68% 66% 2.9
04.11.23 Borussia Dortmund vs FC Bayern München 0-4 20% 27% -23.6 20% 23% -12.2 59% 56% 6.8
04.11.23 FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig 2-0 17% 22% -22.3 21% 25% -14.5 61% 58% 5.5
04.11.23 SC Freiburg vs Mönchengladbach 3-3 46% 50% -7.9 25% 27% -5.8 28% 29% -3.1
05.11.23 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2-0 14% 19% -24.7 20% 24% -17.6 66% 62% 6.2
05.11.23 VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen 2-2 60% 59% 1.7 21% 24% -9.7 19% 23% -19.2
10.11.23 Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg 4-0 41% 43% -3.1 25% 27% -4.9 33% 36% -8.2
11.11.23 FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 39% 43% -7.9 25% 27% -5.0 35% 37% -4.2
11.11.23 FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Heidenheim 4-2 90% 90% -0.0 6% 9% -28.9 4% 6% -32.5
11.11.23 SV Darmstadt 98 vs FSV Mainz 05 0-0 29% 33% -13.4 27% 29% -9.7 45% 43% 2.5
11.11.23 VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund 2-1 41% 42% -2.5 26% 27% -5.3 34% 37% -8.8
11.11.23 VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Köln 1-1 37% 38% -4.6 27% 29% -6.5 37% 38% -4.9
12.11.23 Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 76% 74% 2.8 15% 19% -19.2 9% 12% -27.6
12.11.23 RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg 3-1 72% 68% 4.6 17% 21% -18.4 11% 15% -27.1
12.11.23 Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 33% 37% -11.8 26% 29% -8.0 41% 41% 0.6
24.11.23 1. FC Köln vs FC Bayern München 0-1 7% 11% -30.2 12% 16% -23.6 80% 79% 2.1
25.11.23 1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg 1-1 49% 50% -1.8 27% 29% -9.7 24% 27% -10.0
25.11.23 Borussia Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach 4-2 68% 66% 2.0 18% 21% -13.2 14% 19% -24.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 884 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

19 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Bayern München 2636.47
2 Bayer Leverkusen 2430.21
3 Borussia Dortmund 2403.24
4 RB Leipzig 2385.96
5 VfB Stuttgart 2378.65
6 SC Freiburg 2331.54
7 1899 Hoffenheim 2318.73
8 FSV Mainz 05 2299.29
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 2280.87
10 SV Werder Bremen 2238.25
11 Werder Bremen 2228.39
12 1. FC Köln 2218.04
13 FC Schalke 04 2198.41
14 FC Augsburg 2196.39
15 SV Elversberg 07 2192.98
16 Mönchengladbach 2184.18
17 1. FC Union Berlin 2147.75
18 SC Paderborn 07 2133.69
19 Hamburger SV 2122.10

Away Ratings

19 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Bayern München 2506.05
2 Bayer Leverkusen 2377.21
3 Borussia Dortmund 2350.56
4 RB Leipzig 2327.97
5 FSV Mainz 05 2294.60
6 VfB Stuttgart 2284.80
7 SC Freiburg 2248.79
8 1899 Hoffenheim 2193.19
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 2181.68
10 FC Augsburg 2167.17
11 SV Werder Bremen 2151.78
12 1. FC Köln 2151.13
13 FC Schalke 04 2128.97
14 Werder Bremen 2115.22
15 1. FC Union Berlin 2108.14
16 SV Elversberg 07 2107.34
17 Mönchengladbach 2101.63
18 SC Paderborn 07 2087.61
19 Hamburger SV 2086.73