ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 844
Avg Goals 3.02
Avg Home 1.66
Avg Away 1.37
Home Win % 44.1%
Draw % 25.2%
Away Win % 30.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 844
Avg Brier Score 0.6230
Pick Accuracy 48.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6255
Market Brier 0.6227
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 844 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.6% 0.0% 4
10–20% 17.2% 15.5% 142
20–30% 25.0% 25.3% 1185
30–40% 34.8% 33.1% 487
40–50% 44.6% 45.3% 433
50–60% 54.2% 55.3% 208
60–70% 64.1% 68.3% 63
70–80% 73.2% 66.7% 9
80–90% 80.0% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
29.07.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli 1-2 31% 33% -8.2 27% 30% -10.7 42% 43% -0.5
29.07.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC Berlin 1-0 43% 47% -8.1 25% 28% -8.4 32% 32% -1.3
29.07.23 Hannover 96 vs SV Elversberg 07 2-2 44% 48% -7.5 25% 27% -7.1 31% 31% 0.2
29.07.23 SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 34% 34% 0.7 26% 28% -8.1 40% 44% -9.2
29.07.23 VfL Osnabrück vs Karlsruher SC 2-3 34% 36% -4.2 25% 27% -7.3 41% 43% -6.2
30.07.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel 0-1 40% 41% -3.1 26% 29% -9.2 35% 37% -6.8
30.07.23 Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 39% 41% -4.6 28% 32% -11.9 33% 33% -2.0
30.07.23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 5-0 38% 41% -7.6 26% 29% -8.9 36% 37% -2.0
04.08.23 Hertha BSC Berlin vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden 0-1 58% 62% -5.5 22% 24% -8.6 19% 20% -3.2
04.08.23 SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Osnabrück 1-1 58% 60% -2.8 22% 24% -9.2 20% 23% -9.8
05.08.23 FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-0 56% 56% 1.2 23% 26% -12.4 21% 24% -13.1
05.08.23 FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-0 46% 47% -0.9 26% 29% -10.2 28% 31% -8.1
05.08.23 Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 36% 38% -6.7 26% 28% -8.1 39% 40% -3.5
06.08.23 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 57% 58% -2.4 23% 26% -11.0 20% 22% -9.3
06.08.23 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 2-2 40% 42% -4.6 27% 30% -10.6 33% 34% -3.7
06.08.23 Karlsruher SC vs Hamburger SV 2-2 37% 41% -9.0 24% 26% -5.6 39% 39% -1.4
18.08.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Elversberg 07 3-2 47% 47% 1.7 25% 28% -11.2 28% 32% -13.2
18.08.23 SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs Karlsruher SC 1-0 35% 38% -7.0 26% 28% -8.2 39% 41% -3.5
19.08.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 1-2 48% 49% -1.0 25% 27% -8.9 27% 29% -7.9
19.08.23 Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC Berlin 3-0 54% 57% -6.0 22% 24% -5.5 24% 24% -2.5
19.08.23 Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 1-2 40% 41% -1.4 26% 29% -9.0 34% 36% -7.2
19.08.23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli 0-0 40% 42% -5.1 26% 29% -8.7 34% 35% -3.4
20.08.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC Schalke 04 1-0 27% 30% -10.0 25% 27% -8.6 48% 49% -1.6
20.08.23 Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2-4 42% 43% -3.2 25% 26% -6.8 33% 36% -6.5
20.08.23 VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 42% 43% -3.6 26% 29% -9.1 32% 34% -5.2
25.08.23 FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel 0-2 49% 49% 0.2 23% 26% -8.5 28% 31% -11.5
25.08.23 SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 45% 45% -1.2 25% 28% -8.9 30% 32% -7.6
26.08.23 Hannover 96 vs Hamburger SV 0-1 28% 31% -9.6 23% 25% -6.3 48% 50% -3.4
26.08.23 Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück 2-1 43% 47% -7.2 26% 29% -9.1 31% 31% -1.1
26.08.23 Hertha BSC Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-0 37% 39% -5.8 26% 29% -8.8 37% 38% -3.8
26.08.23 SV Elversberg 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-5 35% 37% -6.5 25% 27% -7.1 40% 42% -3.3
27.08.23 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden 2-1 48% 49% -1.6 25% 28% -10.8 27% 30% -10.2
27.08.23 FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg 0-0 54% 56% -2.3 23% 26% -9.9 23% 25% -9.5
27.08.23 Karlsruher SC vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 53% 55% -3.5 23% 25% -7.8 24% 26% -6.7
01.09.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli 1-1 23% 24% -4.7 25% 27% -8.4 52% 54% -3.8
01.09.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC 3-1 43% 43% 0.6 25% 28% -9.3 32% 36% -10.4
02.09.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs 1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 48% 48% 1.2 25% 29% -11.1 26% 29% -10.2
02.09.23 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC Berlin 6-4 37% 38% -3.9 25% 27% -6.9 38% 41% -6.4
02.09.23 Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 2-1 44% 48% -7.2 24% 26% -7.0 31% 32% -2.9
03.09.23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 1-3 51% 51% -1.2 24% 27% -10.3 25% 28% -9.7
03.09.23 VfL Osnabrück vs SV Elversberg 07 0-1 40% 43% -8.2 25% 26% -6.6 36% 36% -2.3
15.09.23 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 37% 38% -4.1 26% 29% -8.9 37% 39% -5.4
16.09.23 FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Magdeburg 4-3 48% 49% -1.2 24% 26% -9.1 28% 31% -10.7
16.09.23 Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 31% 32% -4.0 26% 29% -9.0 43% 45% -5.4
16.09.23 Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-1 49% 51% -4.5 25% 27% -8.9 26% 28% -5.0
17.09.23 FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel 5-1 51% 51% 0.1 25% 28% -11.2 24% 27% -10.0
17.09.23 Hannover 96 vs VfL Osnabrück 7-0 50% 53% -5.8 24% 26% -7.6 25% 26% -1.3
17.09.23 Hertha BSC Berlin vs Eintracht Braunschweig 3-0 56% 58% -3.4 23% 25% -9.2 21% 23% -7.1
22.09.23 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 1-1 44% 47% -5.6 24% 25% -5.2 32% 34% -4.4
22.09.23 VfL Osnabrück vs Hamburger SV 2-1 20% 23% -10.4 21% 22% -5.6 59% 61% -3.2
23.09.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2-2 36% 38% -4.7 26% 29% -8.4 38% 39% -3.4
23.09.23 FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 3-1 54% 55% -1.9 24% 27% -10.3 22% 24% -7.8
23.09.23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Karlsruher SC 4-3 42% 44% -4.9 25% 27% -7.6 33% 34% -5.0
24.09.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock 3-1 47% 48% -1.2 26% 29% -10.8 27% 29% -6.4
24.09.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 1-1 50% 52% -2.5 24% 27% -9.6 25% 28% -8.5
24.09.23 Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC Berlin 2-3 43% 45% -4.7 24% 26% -7.3 32% 34% -6.3
29.09.23 Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 50% 51% -0.2 23% 26% -9.6 26% 30% -12.8
30.09.23 Hannover 96 vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden 2-0 57% 60% -5.7 23% 24% -7.6 21% 21% -2.0
30.09.23 Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 46% 48% -2.6 26% 29% -9.7 28% 29% -5.3
30.09.23 Hertha BSC Berlin vs FC St. Pauli 1-2 36% 38% -6.9 26% 29% -8.8 38% 39% -2.7
30.09.23 Karlsruher SC vs Holstein Kiel 0-2 50% 52% -4.2 23% 25% -6.5 27% 29% -5.5
01.10.23 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 44% 47% -4.3 25% 27% -8.1 31% 33% -7.1
01.10.23 SV Elversberg 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 40% 42% -3.6 26% 28% -8.1 34% 36% -5.6
01.10.23 VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-2 36% 38% -7.7 26% 29% -8.9 38% 39% -2.0
06.10.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hannover 96 3-1 43% 45% -4.7 26% 28% -8.1 31% 32% -3.4
06.10.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Osnabrück 1-1 61% 62% -2.8 21% 23% -8.3 18% 20% -8.0
07.10.23 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC 1-1 40% 43% -6.8 25% 26% -6.2 35% 36% -2.5
07.10.23 FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg 5-1 62% 65% -4.2 21% 23% -9.0 17% 18% -5.7
07.10.23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock 1-0 54% 56% -3.3 24% 27% -10.1 22% 23% -4.8
08.10.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 1-3 32% 35% -7.3 25% 28% -8.2 42% 43% -2.9
08.10.23 FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC Berlin 1-2 44% 47% -5.6 24% 26% -7.1 32% 33% -5.0
08.10.23 Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg 07 1-1 44% 45% -2.7 24% 26% -7.3 31% 34% -7.5
20.10.23 Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 44% 47% -5.5 24% 26% -7.2 32% 33% -5.1
20.10.23 SV Elversberg 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig 3-0 54% 56% -2.1 23% 25% -8.8 23% 25% -8.7
21.10.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4-3 50% 51% -1.2 24% 27% -9.3 26% 28% -7.9
21.10.23 Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 57% 60% -4.0 22% 24% -8.7 21% 23% -8.7
21.10.23 SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli 2-2 29% 31% -6.2 25% 27% -7.4 46% 48% -3.1
21.10.23 VfL Osnabrück vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden 0-2 44% 48% -7.0 25% 27% -7.2 31% 31% -0.5
22.10.23 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC Berlin 3-1 39% 42% -6.5 25% 27% -7.1 36% 37% -3.0
22.10.23 Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel 1-3 37% 38% -4.5 27% 29% -9.2 37% 38% -3.1
22.10.23 Karlsruher SC vs FC Schalke 04 3-0 42% 44% -4.4 25% 27% -7.5 33% 35% -6.4
27.10.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-4 25% 27% -5.3 24% 26% -7.4 50% 53% -4.3
27.10.23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Osnabrück 4-0 56% 59% -4.0 23% 25% -8.7 21% 22% -4.7
28.10.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hamburger SV 3-3 33% 35% -7.0 25% 27% -7.2 42% 43% -2.7
28.10.23 FC Schalke 04 vs Hannover 96 3-2 43% 43% -1.4 25% 27% -7.7 32% 35% -7.7
28.10.23 FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC 2-1 61% 64% -3.8 21% 23% -8.0 17% 18% -3.9
28.10.23 Hertha BSC Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 3-1 46% 48% -4.2 24% 26% -7.7 30% 32% -6.7
29.10.23 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg 07 1-2 46% 48% -3.8 24% 26% -6.6 30% 32% -6.2
29.10.23 Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 44% 45% -3.8 25% 27% -7.9 31% 33% -6.0
03.11.23 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden 1-3 63% 65% -2.9 21% 23% -9.4 17% 18% -7.8
03.11.23 SV Elversberg 07 vs FC St. Pauli 0-2 28% 31% -8.4 25% 28% -8.3 46% 47% -0.3
04.11.23 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 42% 44% -5.7 25% 28% -8.3 33% 34% -3.8
04.11.23 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 1-2 45% 48% -5.3 24% 26% -7.4 31% 32% -5.3
04.11.23 Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 60% 64% -5.6 20% 21% -5.1 20% 22% -7.5
04.11.23 VfL Osnabrück vs Holstein Kiel 1-1 34% 36% -5.9 25% 27% -7.4 41% 43% -4.8
05.11.23 Hannover 96 vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 63% 66% -4.2 21% 23% -9.2 16% 17% -3.9
05.11.23 Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC Berlin 0-0 34% 36% -6.7 26% 29% -8.6 40% 41% -2.1
05.11.23 Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 0-3 44% 45% -4.0 25% 27% -7.2 32% 33% -5.1
10.11.23 FC St. Pauli vs Hannover 96 0-0 58% 61% -4.2 23% 25% -9.2 19% 20% -3.8
11.11.23 Eintracht Braunschweig vs VfL Osnabrück 3-2 40% 43% -5.7 26% 29% -8.6 34% 34% -2.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 844 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 VfL Wolfsburg 2220.63
2 Hertha BSC Berlin 2207.13
3 FC St. Pauli 2162.79
4 1. FC Heidenheim 2153.27
5 1. FC Nürnberg 2123.41
6 Hannover 96 2121.57
7 1. FC Magdeburg 2120.94
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2099.30
9 Arminia Bielefeld 2098.21
10 Eintracht Braunschweig 2086.24
11 VfL Bochum 2081.28
12 Dynamo Dresden 2068.82
13 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2063.52
14 SV Darmstadt 98 2054.79
15 Holstein Kiel 2039.55
16 VfL Osnabrück 2034.55
17 Karlsruher SC 2023.87
18 Energie Cottbus 1990.18

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 VfL Wolfsburg 2162.25
2 Hertha BSC Berlin 2141.57
3 FC St. Pauli 2116.67
4 Hannover 96 2110.31
5 1. FC Magdeburg 2102.79
6 1. FC Heidenheim 2101.23
7 1. FC Nürnberg 2099.22
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2071.29
9 Arminia Bielefeld 2071.28
10 Holstein Kiel 2060.07
11 Dynamo Dresden 2053.91
12 VfL Bochum 2041.14
13 VfL Osnabrück 2028.32
14 Eintracht Braunschweig 2006.04
15 Energie Cottbus 1978.27
16 Karlsruher SC 1977.57
17 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1970.98
18 SV Darmstadt 98 1968.62