ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 947
Avg Goals 2.99
Avg Home 1.65
Avg Away 1.34
Home Win % 46.6%
Draw % 24.7%
Away Win % 28.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 947
Avg Brier Score 0.6206
Pick Accuracy 49.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6203
Market Brier 0.6229
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 947 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.3% 0.0% 3
10–20% 17.2% 19.7% 137
20–30% 25.3% 24.2% 1328
30–40% 34.8% 32.6% 582
40–50% 44.3% 47.9% 511
50–60% 54.2% 56.1% 214
60–70% 63.8% 62.5% 56
70–80% 74.1% 90.0% 10
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs SC Verl 3-1 45% 47% -3.9 25% 27% -8.9 31% 34% -9.4
05.08.23 Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Unterhaching 1-1 51% 53% -2.5 24% 28% -12.2 24% 28% -12.5
05.08.23 TSV 1860 München vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 2-0 42% 45% -8.1 25% 28% -9.0 33% 34% -4.5
06.08.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 37% 38% -2.8 26% 29% -10.6 37% 41% -9.3
06.08.23 SC Freiburg II vs MSV Duisburg 1-1 49% 48% 3.9 25% 29% -13.6 26% 31% -17.2
06.08.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Saarbrücken 1-1 31% 32% -2.7 26% 29% -9.3 43% 47% -8.2
19.08.23 1. FC Saarbrücken vs FC Viktoria Köln 1-2 53% 51% 2.7 23% 27% -13.6 24% 29% -18.4
19.08.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hallescher FC 4-0 51% 55% -5.8 24% 27% -9.8 24% 26% -5.8
19.08.23 MSV Duisburg vs TSV 1860 München 0-3 41% 43% -4.2 26% 29% -10.2 34% 37% -9.4
19.08.23 SpVgg Unterhaching vs SSV Ulm 1846 3-2 40% 43% -7.0 26% 29% -10.3 34% 36% -4.7
19.08.23 SV Waldhof Mannheim vs VfB Lübeck 2-2 60% 62% -3.7 22% 24% -11.1 18% 21% -11.3
20.08.23 Rot-Weiss Essen vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 49% 50% -2.5 25% 29% -11.9 26% 29% -11.2
20.08.23 SC Verl vs Jahn Regensburg 1-2 41% 43% -4.5 26% 29% -10.6 33% 36% -7.5
22.08.23 Dynamo Dresden vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 2-1 54% 58% -7.2 23% 25% -7.8 23% 24% -4.5
22.08.23 Hallescher FC vs MSV Duisburg 1-1 43% 44% -4.3 26% 29% -10.2 32% 35% -8.7
22.08.23 Preußen Münster vs FC Ingolstadt 04 3-1 42% 40% 5.1 26% 29% -11.8 32% 38% -15.2
22.08.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 34% 36% -5.0 25% 28% -9.0 41% 44% -8.3
22.08.23 TSV 1860 München vs VfB Lübeck 1-2 58% 62% -6.7 22% 24% -8.4 20% 21% -4.6
23.08.23 1. FC Saarbrücken vs SC Verl 4-3 55% 56% -0.5 23% 26% -12.1 22% 26% -15.8
23.08.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs SV Sandhausen 2-1 33% 35% -4.6 26% 29% -10.3 40% 43% -7.2
23.08.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs Rot-Weiss Essen 0-0 45% 47% -3.4 25% 29% -11.2 30% 33% -10.9
23.08.23 Jahn Regensburg vs Borussia Dortmund II 0-0 44% 47% -4.4 25% 28% -9.6 30% 33% -8.7
25.08.23 MSV Duisburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 1-1 42% 45% -7.6 26% 29% -9.5 32% 33% -3.6
26.08.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Saarbrücken 2-2 37% 38% -2.9 26% 29% -10.5 36% 40% -9.2
26.08.23 SC Verl vs SC Freiburg II 3-2 44% 45% -4.2 26% 29% -10.0 31% 33% -7.7
26.08.23 SpVgg Unterhaching vs FC Viktoria Köln 2-1 40% 40% 0.6 25% 28% -9.8 35% 40% -13.3
26.08.23 SV Sandhausen vs TSV 1860 München 3-0 43% 45% -5.8 26% 29% -9.7 31% 33% -5.9
26.08.23 VfB Lübeck vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 41% 43% -2.7 26% 29% -10.0 33% 36% -9.6
27.08.23 Arminia Bielefeld vs Jahn Regensburg 1-1 51% 51% 0.2 24% 28% -12.5 25% 29% -14.8
27.08.23 SV Waldhof Mannheim vs Hallescher FC 3-2 55% 57% -3.3 24% 27% -11.8 21% 24% -10.8
01.09.23 1. FC Saarbrücken vs Borussia Dortmund II 2-0 58% 60% -3.9 22% 25% -10.8 20% 22% -10.8
02.09.23 Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 2-0 56% 58% -3.7 23% 26% -10.2 21% 23% -9.1
02.09.23 Preußen Münster vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 1-3 44% 45% -4.1 26% 29% -10.5 31% 34% -9.1
02.09.23 SC Verl vs SpVgg Unterhaching 0-0 46% 48% -4.0 25% 27% -8.7 30% 32% -8.2
02.09.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs VfB Lübeck 3-0 47% 49% -2.8 25% 29% -11.3 27% 30% -10.2
02.09.23 TSV 1860 München vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 53% 56% -5.7 24% 26% -10.1 23% 25% -7.8
03.09.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 42% 44% -6.2 26% 29% -9.9 33% 35% -6.5
03.09.23 Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg 2-1 53% 55% -3.4 24% 27% -10.9 23% 26% -9.7
15.09.23 MSV Duisburg vs SC Verl 2-3 35% 37% -4.7 26% 29% -9.6 39% 42% -7.8
16.09.23 Borussia Dortmund II vs FC Viktoria Köln 2-1 36% 38% -4.9 26% 29% -9.2 38% 41% -6.5
16.09.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs TSV 1860 München 2-1 45% 47% -4.0 25% 28% -9.7 30% 33% -9.2
16.09.23 Rot-Weiss Essen vs Jahn Regensburg 0-0 41% 43% -5.5 26% 29% -10.6 33% 35% -6.4
17.09.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs Hallescher FC 3-1 45% 47% -3.1 25% 28% -9.1 30% 32% -8.0
17.09.23 SpVgg Unterhaching vs 1. FC Saarbrücken 0-0 34% 35% -3.3 26% 29% -9.6 40% 44% -8.9
17.09.23 SV Waldhof Mannheim vs SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 46% 48% -4.2 25% 28% -9.9 29% 32% -9.0
23.09.23 1. FC Saarbrücken vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 1-1 52% 54% -3.9 24% 27% -10.6 24% 27% -10.3
23.09.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs MSV Duisburg 2-0 54% 56% -3.7 23% 26% -11.2 22% 25% -11.1
23.09.23 Hallescher FC vs TSV 1860 München 0-2 37% 40% -6.3 26% 29% -9.1 37% 38% -4.9
23.09.23 Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen 1-2 42% 43% -2.4 26% 29% -10.8 31% 34% -9.2
23.09.23 SC Verl vs Borussia Dortmund II 2-3 48% 51% -4.3 25% 28% -10.5 27% 29% -8.9
24.09.23 Dynamo Dresden vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 62% 63% -2.8 21% 24% -11.6 17% 20% -12.8
24.09.23 SC Freiburg II vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1-4 35% 34% 2.0 26% 29% -10.3 38% 43% -11.6
24.09.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 44% 47% -4.9 26% 29% -10.6 29% 31% -5.7
27.09.23 Borussia Dortmund II vs MSV Duisburg 1-0 45% 45% -1.6 26% 29% -10.7 30% 33% -10.8
29.09.23 Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Saarbrücken 2-6 37% 38% -2.9 26% 29% -9.3 37% 41% -8.3
30.09.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Ulm 1846 4-0 45% 45% -1.6 26% 29% -11.2 29% 32% -9.7
30.09.23 MSV Duisburg vs Preußen Münster 0-0 36% 37% -3.1 26% 29% -9.9 38% 43% -9.8
30.09.23 SV Sandhausen vs FC Viktoria Köln 3-3 45% 48% -4.8 25% 28% -9.7 30% 32% -8.2
30.09.23 SV Waldhof Mannheim vs SC Freiburg II 3-1 52% 54% -4.3 25% 28% -11.7 24% 26% -9.7
30.09.23 TSV 1860 München vs SC Verl 1-0 44% 47% -5.5 25% 27% -8.5 31% 34% -7.5
01.10.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs Jahn Regensburg 0-1 38% 40% -4.7 26% 29% -10.5 36% 38% -7.6
03.10.23 1. FC Saarbrücken vs VfB Lübeck 1-1 64% 66% -3.0 20% 23% -11.9 16% 18% -12.8
03.10.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 44% 45% -3.2 26% 29% -10.3 30% 33% -8.9
03.10.23 SC Verl vs Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 42% 44% -4.8 25% 28% -9.0 32% 35% -7.6
03.10.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs TSV 1860 München 1-0 41% 43% -3.2 26% 29% -10.1 32% 35% -7.1
04.10.23 Jahn Regensburg vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 2-0 44% 47% -6.3 26% 29% -11.1 30% 32% -6.2
04.10.23 Preußen Münster vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 4-0 47% 49% -3.8 25% 29% -11.3 28% 31% -9.8
06.10.23 SV Sandhausen vs SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 44% 44% -0.8 26% 29% -11.7 30% 34% -11.7
07.10.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs 1. FC Saarbrücken 2-0 32% 34% -6.2 26% 29% -9.8 42% 45% -6.6
07.10.23 MSV Duisburg vs SpVgg Unterhaching 1-0 41% 43% -4.4 26% 29% -10.2 34% 37% -9.1
07.10.23 Rot-Weiss Essen vs SC Verl 0-5 43% 45% -4.9 26% 29% -10.3 31% 34% -8.2
07.10.23 SV Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Viktoria Köln 1-1 41% 43% -4.0 26% 29% -9.8 33% 36% -8.2
07.10.23 TSV 1860 München vs Dynamo Dresden 0-0 31% 32% -4.8 26% 29% -10.7 43% 47% -7.5
08.10.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Jahn Regensburg 2-4 44% 45% -2.9 26% 29% -10.8 30% 32% -8.2
14.10.23 Arminia Bielefeld vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 3-1 47% 49% -4.6 25% 28% -10.1 28% 31% -8.8
14.10.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 53% 56% -4.4 24% 27% -10.3 23% 25% -8.1
14.10.23 Jahn Regensburg vs VfB Lübeck 2-1 56% 59% -5.2 24% 26% -10.1 21% 22% -5.3
14.10.23 SC Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 2-2 42% 43% -3.3 26% 29% -10.2 32% 36% -9.6
15.10.23 Preußen Münster vs TSV 1860 München 1-1 44% 48% -7.0 25% 28% -9.2 31% 32% -5.4
15.10.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs Dynamo Dresden 2-3 32% 33% -4.6 27% 30% -11.3 41% 44% -7.0
20.10.23 SV Waldhof Mannheim vs Borussia Dortmund II 1-3 41% 42% -2.2 26% 29% -9.8 33% 37% -9.6
21.10.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SpVgg Unterhaching 3-0 52% 55% -4.0 24% 27% -10.6 23% 26% -8.7
21.10.23 Hallescher FC vs Jahn Regensburg 1-2 33% 36% -6.4 26% 29% -9.6 41% 43% -6.2
21.10.23 MSV Duisburg vs Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 35% 37% -4.3 26% 29% -9.6 39% 42% -8.2
21.10.23 TSV 1860 München vs SC Freiburg II 2-0 51% 53% -4.0 25% 29% -11.6 24% 26% -8.0
21.10.23 VfB Lübeck vs FC Viktoria Köln 3-2 33% 35% -6.2 26% 29% -9.7 42% 44% -6.5
22.10.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 37% 38% -2.9 27% 31% -11.5 35% 38% -7.9
22.10.23 Rot-Weiss Essen vs 1. FC Saarbrücken 2-1 32% 34% -4.5 25% 28% -8.5 42% 45% -7.1
22.10.23 SV Sandhausen vs SC Verl 2-2 45% 47% -3.3 25% 28% -9.9 30% 33% -9.9
27.10.23 SpVgg Unterhaching vs SV Waldhof Mannheim 3-0 42% 44% -5.7 27% 30% -11.6 31% 33% -6.1
28.10.23 Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Ingolstadt 04 4-0 44% 47% -4.5 25% 28% -9.6 30% 33% -8.6
28.10.23 FC Viktoria Köln vs TSV 1860 München 2-1 44% 45% -2.7 25% 29% -10.8 30% 34% -10.6
28.10.23 Jahn Regensburg vs Preußen Münster 2-1 46% 48% -3.5 26% 29% -10.6 29% 31% -8.8
28.10.23 MSV Duisburg vs Rot-Weiss Essen 1-2 34% 35% -1.8 26% 29% -10.5 39% 43% -9.8
28.10.23 SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hallescher FC 2-3 56% 60% -5.1 23% 25% -9.5 21% 23% -8.1
29.10.23 1. FC Saarbrücken vs Dynamo Dresden 0-0 36% 36% 0.7 26% 29% -9.2 38% 43% -10.4
29.10.23 SC Freiburg II vs FC Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 40% 42% -3.7 26% 29% -10.4 34% 36% -7.8
29.10.23 SC Verl vs VfB Lübeck 4-0 53% 56% -4.9 24% 26% -10.0 23% 26% -8.5
03.11.23 FC Erzgebirge Aue vs SC Verl 1-2 36% 37% -3.0 26% 29% -9.7 38% 42% -9.3
04.11.23 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 47% 49% -3.9 24% 27% -9.8 29% 32% -10.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 947 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 MSV Duisburg 2029.58
2 FC Viktoria Köln 2016.62
3 Hansa Rostock 2012.97
4 Alemannia Aachen 1982.77
5 1. FC Saarbrücken 1976.32
6 Fortuna Düsseldorf 1976.19
7 Jahn Regensburg 1954.33
8 SV Wehen Wiesbaden 1949.99
9 1899 Hoffenheim II 1947.13
10 SV Waldhof Mannheim 1940.32
11 FC Ingolstadt 04 1938.79
12 Rot-Weiss Essen 1917.97
13 SV Meppen 1896.81
14 SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 1895.18
15 SC Verl 1887.64
16 VfB Stuttgart II 1884.06
17 Preußen Münster 1883.13
18 SC Fortuna Köln 1878.74
19 Würzburger Kickers 1822.93
20 TSV Havelse 1765.86

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Hansa Rostock 1992.32
2 MSV Duisburg 1986.78
3 FC Viktoria Köln 1985.90
4 Rot-Weiss Essen 1976.83
5 1. FC Saarbrücken 1956.09
6 Fortuna Düsseldorf 1955.10
7 SV Wehen Wiesbaden 1942.60
8 Alemannia Aachen 1919.06
9 SV Waldhof Mannheim 1918.45
10 1899 Hoffenheim II 1902.33
11 Jahn Regensburg 1887.13
12 FC Ingolstadt 04 1883.41
13 Preußen Münster 1871.75
14 SC Verl 1852.20
15 SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 1846.59
16 SV Meppen 1839.94
17 SC Fortuna Köln 1819.57
18 VfB Stuttgart II 1800.36
19 Würzburger Kickers 1758.80
20 TSV Havelse 1694.26