ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 706
Avg Goals 2.66
Avg Home 1.46
Avg Away 1.20
Home Win % 42.2%
Draw % 25.6%
Away Win % 32.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 706
Avg Brier Score 0.5519
Pick Accuracy 54.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5561
Market Brier 0.5510
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 706 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit -3.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.1% 4.4% 159
10–20% 15.2% 15.3% 366
20–30% 26.4% 27.9% 718
30–40% 34.2% 35.1% 271
40–50% 44.1% 40.1% 212
50–60% 54.2% 51.6% 124
60–70% 65.7% 61.9% 97
70–80% 74.6% 80.2% 111
80–90% 83.2% 83.1% 59
90–100% 93.4% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.08.23 Volos NFC vs Lamia FC 2-2 38% 42% -9.7 29% 32% -8.9 33% 33% -1.0
19.08.23 PAS Giannina vs AE Kifisia FC 3-0 42% 45% -6.6 30% 33% -10.0 28% 29% -3.6
20.08.23 OFI Crete vs Aris Saloniki 3-2 32% 36% -10.9 28% 31% -8.5 40% 41% -1.9
20.08.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panseraikos 2-0 82% 85% -2.6 12% 14% -12.6 5% 6% -19.8
20.08.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis 3-0 75% 78% -4.5 17% 19% -9.7 8% 10% -14.2
25.08.23 Panaitolikos vs PAS Giannina 0-0 38% 43% -9.8 30% 34% -10.4 31% 31% 0.1
26.08.23 AEK Athens vs Panseraikos 1-1 83% 85% -1.7 12% 14% -18.7 5% 7% -26.6
26.08.23 Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Crete 3-0 40% 43% -5.2 30% 33% -9.8 30% 31% -5.3
26.08.23 Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC 3-0 77% 78% -1.9 16% 18% -14.2 8% 10% -22.3
27.08.23 Lamia FC vs Aris Saloniki 1-0 26% 29% -12.2 29% 32% -11.2 46% 45% 0.1
27.08.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos Athinon 4-0 73% 76% -3.5 18% 20% -11.3 9% 11% -17.7
27.08.23 PAOK Saloniki vs AE Kifisia FC 2-1 70% 74% -4.6 19% 21% -7.7 10% 12% -11.2
01.09.23 AE Kifisia FC vs Atromitos Athinon 2-1 40% 38% 3.0 29% 32% -10.2 31% 37% -15.1
02.09.23 Panseraikos vs Panaitolikos 1-1 41% 43% -5.6 29% 32% -9.6 30% 32% -7.7
03.09.23 Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis 3-2 63% 65% -2.9 23% 26% -10.3 14% 17% -13.9
03.09.23 OFI Crete vs PAOK Saloniki 1-0 20% 24% -18.9 24% 27% -12.1 56% 56% 1.7
03.09.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia FC 4-0 79% 81% -3.3 15% 17% -11.2 7% 8% -17.9
03.09.23 PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos 0-1 16% 19% -14.7 25% 29% -13.9 58% 58% 0.5
03.09.23 Volos NFC vs AEK Athens 2-3 6% 8% -20.8 13% 16% -16.2 81% 83% -2.6
16.09.23 Lamia FC vs OFI Crete 2-2 40% 43% -8.8 29% 32% -9.4 31% 32% -3.5
16.09.23 Panaitolikos vs Panathinaikos 0-5 12% 15% -16.1 22% 26% -14.5 66% 66% -0.9
17.09.23 AE Kifisia FC vs Panseraikos 4-4 45% 44% 2.0 29% 32% -11.2 26% 31% -15.3
17.09.23 AEK Athens vs Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 47% 48% -0.9 28% 31% -10.3 25% 29% -13.3
17.09.23 Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina 2-2 50% 55% -8.6 28% 31% -8.9 21% 21% 1.4
17.09.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Aris Saloniki 0-0 58% 61% -4.7 25% 28% -8.6 17% 18% -7.4
18.09.23 Atromitos Athinon vs Volos NFC 1-1 55% 56% -2.8 25% 28% -8.8 20% 23% -13.1
23.09.23 OFI Crete vs Atromitos Athinon 1-1 48% 53% -9.2 27% 29% -7.7 25% 26% -4.7
23.09.23 Panseraikos vs Lamia FC 2-0 42% 43% -2.5 29% 32% -9.4 28% 31% -9.1
24.09.23 Aris Saloniki vs Panaitolikos 3-0 69% 71% -3.9 20% 22% -8.6 11% 13% -13.9
24.09.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs AE Kifisia FC 4-0 82% 85% -3.8 13% 14% -10.8 6% 7% -19.8
24.09.23 PAS Giannina vs PAOK Saloniki 1-3 15% 19% -20.1 23% 27% -15.2 62% 61% 1.4
24.09.23 Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis 1-2 32% 34% -6.2 30% 34% -10.5 37% 39% -4.8
25.09.23 Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens 1-2 37% 41% -8.5 30% 34% -10.6 32% 33% -2.9
27.09.23 AE Kifisia FC vs Lamia FC 1-1 47% 49% -4.6 28% 31% -9.0 25% 27% -7.4
27.09.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Saloniki 4-1 68% 71% -4.0 20% 23% -10.0 11% 13% -14.3
27.09.23 Panaitolikos vs OFI Crete 1-1 30% 32% -7.7 29% 32% -9.4 41% 43% -3.7
27.09.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Volos NFC 3-0 82% 84% -2.6 12% 14% -13.3 6% 7% -22.6
28.09.23 AEK Athens vs Atromitos Athinon 2-1 80% 83% -4.2 14% 15% -9.1 6% 7% -16.3
28.09.23 Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos 1-4 18% 22% -15.9 28% 33% -16.1 54% 53% 2.1
28.09.23 Panseraikos vs PAS Giannina 3-2 41% 43% -5.2 30% 33% -10.5 29% 31% -7.4
01.10.23 Aris Saloniki vs AE Kifisia FC 1-1 66% 68% -3.9 21% 23% -8.1 13% 15% -12.6
01.10.23 Lamia FC vs Panaitolikos 1-0 48% 50% -5.0 28% 30% -8.2 25% 27% -7.5
01.10.23 Panathinaikos vs PAOK Saloniki 2-2 45% 49% -7.8 28% 31% -8.8 27% 28% -4.5
01.10.23 PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus 0-3 10% 12% -22.9 18% 22% -18.1 73% 72% 0.1
02.10.23 Atromitos Athinon vs Asteras Tripolis 0-0 44% 48% -7.4 29% 32% -9.4 27% 28% -3.9
02.10.23 OFI Crete vs AEK Athens 2-0 14% 17% -16.8 21% 24% -12.6 65% 66% -1.5
08.10.23 AEK Athens vs Panaitolikos 3-0 88% 91% -3.2 9% 10% -10.0 3% 4% -21.3
08.10.23 Panathinaikos vs Atromitos Athinon 5-0 71% 73% -2.4 19% 21% -11.8 10% 12% -18.7
21.10.23 Aris Saloniki vs Panseraikos 1-0 66% 67% -1.9 21% 24% -12.0 13% 15% -17.4
21.10.23 Panaitolikos vs Volos NFC 2-0 46% 48% -4.2 28% 31% -9.1 26% 29% -10.2
22.10.23 AE Kifisia FC vs OFI Crete 0-0 32% 33% -5.1 28% 30% -7.9 40% 44% -8.9
22.10.23 Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens 0-3 11% 14% -20.8 19% 22% -15.8 70% 71% -0.8
22.10.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos 1-1 50% 52% -3.1 28% 31% -10.3 22% 25% -11.3
22.10.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Atromitos Athinon 2-0 75% 78% -3.9 17% 18% -8.5 9% 11% -16.2
28.10.23 Atromitos Athinon vs Panaitolikos 3-2 54% 56% -3.2 26% 29% -9.2 20% 23% -12.1
28.10.23 Volos NFC vs AE Kifisia FC 2-1 37% 40% -7.2 29% 31% -8.3 34% 36% -5.8
29.10.23 Aris Saloniki vs PAS Giannina 2-0 66% 69% -5.3 22% 24% -9.2 13% 14% -11.7
29.10.23 Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia FC 0-1 50% 53% -5.5 28% 30% -8.9 22% 24% -6.9
29.10.23 Panathinaikos vs Panseraikos 5-0 82% 84% -2.7 13% 15% -14.3 6% 7% -22.6
30.10.23 AEK Athens vs PAOK Saloniki 2-0 56% 62% -8.7 25% 26% -5.3 19% 19% -1.6
30.10.23 OFI Crete vs Olympiakos Piraeus 0-2 18% 22% -14.9 23% 26% -9.6 58% 60% -2.0
04.11.23 AE Kifisia FC vs AEK Athens 1-1 6% 8% -21.4 13% 15% -15.2 81% 83% -2.3
04.11.23 Lamia FC vs Panathinaikos 1-2 11% 13% -19.3 19% 23% -15.7 70% 70% -0.9
05.11.23 Aris Saloniki vs Atromitos Athinon 1-3 63% 67% -5.2 22% 24% -7.3 15% 17% -11.5
05.11.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Saloniki 2-4 59% 65% -9.6 24% 26% -5.5 17% 17% 0.2
05.11.23 Panaitolikos vs Asteras Tripolis 0-1 33% 36% -7.4 30% 33% -10.5 37% 39% -5.4
05.11.23 PAS Giannina vs Volos NFC 1-1 49% 51% -4.7 28% 31% -9.6 23% 26% -9.1
06.11.23 Panseraikos vs OFI Crete 2-1 37% 41% -10.1 29% 31% -8.5 35% 36% -2.8
11.11.23 Atromitos Athinon vs Panseraikos 1-1 52% 56% -6.5 26% 29% -8.1 22% 24% -8.4
11.11.23 OFI Crete vs PAS Giannina 1-1 57% 62% -7.3 25% 27% -7.0 18% 19% -5.7
11.11.23 Volos NFC vs Aris Saloniki 0-2 20% 23% -14.7 25% 28% -11.0 56% 56% -1.6
12.11.23 AE Kifisia FC vs Panathinaikos 0-1 10% 13% -19.1 17% 20% -13.1 72% 75% -3.3
12.11.23 AEK Athens vs Lamia FC 3-0 86% 88% -3.0 10% 11% -13.3 4% 6% -23.5
12.11.23 Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus 0-2 11% 14% -20.3 19% 23% -15.7 69% 69% -0.4
12.11.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Panaitolikos 2-1 80% 83% -3.4 13% 15% -9.3 6% 7% -17.8
24.11.23 OFI Crete vs Volos NFC 1-1 56% 58% -4.8 25% 27% -8.3 20% 22% -12.2
25.11.23 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panaitolikos 3-1 85% 87% -2.6 11% 13% -14.2 4% 5% -21.9
25.11.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Panseraikos 5-0 75% 79% -4.5 16% 18% -9.4 8% 10% -16.4
26.11.23 AE Kifisia FC vs Asteras Tripolis 1-3 34% 36% -3.9 30% 33% -9.9 36% 38% -7.3
26.11.23 Aris Saloniki vs Panathinaikos 2-0 25% 29% -10.8 29% 32% -11.1 46% 47% -1.5
26.11.23 Lamia FC vs Atromitos Athinon 3-3 44% 48% -8.5 28% 31% -8.9 28% 29% -4.9
26.11.23 PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens 0-1 9% 11% -20.7 17% 20% -15.8 74% 75% -1.5
29.11.23 Volos NFC vs Panseraikos 1-0 42% 45% -6.6 28% 31% -8.0 29% 31% -6.4
02.12.23 Asteras Tripolis vs Panseraikos 1-0 49% 52% -6.0 28% 31% -9.9 23% 25% -7.4
02.12.23 Panaitolikos vs AE Kifisia FC 3-0 48% 51% -4.7 28% 30% -8.8 24% 27% -9.1
03.12.23 Atromitos Athinon vs PAS Giannina 1-1 45% 49% -7.2 28% 30% -8.0 27% 29% -6.1
03.12.23 Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete 4-0 77% 81% -4.7 15% 17% -7.5 8% 9% -15.3
03.12.23 Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus 2-2 9% 12% -21.5 17% 21% -16.8 73% 74% -0.9
04.12.23 AEK Athens vs Aris Saloniki 1-0 73% 77% -4.5 17% 19% -8.2 9% 11% -13.9
04.12.23 PAOK Saloniki vs Lamia FC 3-0 75% 79% -4.2 16% 17% -7.9 9% 10% -16.5
16.12.23 AE Kifisia FC vs PAS Giannina 4-2 42% 45% -8.6 29% 32% -8.9 29% 29% -1.2
17.12.23 Aris Saloniki vs OFI Crete 1-0 52% 56% -6.0 26% 28% -6.9 22% 24% -8.1
17.12.23 Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK Saloniki 1-4 18% 22% -18.2 25% 29% -13.9 57% 56% 1.3
17.12.23 Atromitos Athinon vs Panathinaikos 3-2 12% 14% -16.1 20% 23% -12.4 68% 70% -2.6
17.12.23 Lamia FC vs Volos NFC 1-2 45% 47% -3.4 28% 31% -9.0 27% 29% -9.4
18.12.23 Panaitolikos vs AEK Athens 2-2 9% 11% -21.1 16% 18% -14.2 75% 77% -2.0
18.12.23 Panseraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 10% 13% -22.3 18% 22% -17.2 72% 72% -0.7
20.12.23 Aris Saloniki vs Lamia FC 2-2 61% 63% -4.1 23% 26% -8.7 16% 18% -12.4
20.12.23 Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos 0-3 12% 15% -19.2 20% 23% -14.0 68% 68% -1.1
21.12.23 AE Kifisia FC vs PAOK Saloniki 0-6 11% 14% -21.8 18% 21% -15.2 72% 72% -0.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 706 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 2269.77
2 PAOK Saloniki 2201.64
3 AEK Athens 2198.42
4 Panathinaikos 2198.00
5 Aris Saloniki 2045.91
6 OFI Crete 1956.80
7 Asteras Tripolis 1956.19
8 Atromitos Athinon 1928.08
9 Volos NFC 1897.03
10 AE Kifisia FC 1896.00
11 Levadiakos 1882.34
12 Iraklis FC 1877.21
13 Kalamata FC 1863.76
14 Panaitolikos 1850.78

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Panathinaikos 2218.24
2 Olympiakos Piraeus 2154.73
3 AEK Athens 2146.00
4 PAOK Saloniki 2122.01
5 Aris Saloniki 1983.96
6 OFI Crete 1905.26
7 Asteras Tripolis 1870.41
8 Atromitos Athinon 1850.87
9 AE Kifisia FC 1849.69
10 Iraklis FC 1827.22
11 Levadiakos 1823.26
12 Panaitolikos 1811.77
13 Kalamata FC 1804.45
14 Volos NFC 1798.52