ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 564
Avg Goals 2.67
Avg Home 1.49
Avg Away 1.18
Home Win % 42.7%
Draw % 30.0%
Away Win % 27.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 564
Avg Brier Score 0.5861
Pick Accuracy 51.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5835
Market Brier 0.5897
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 564 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 8.3% 60
10–20% 15.6% 14.7% 258
20–30% 25.9% 27.4% 585
30–40% 33.4% 31.2% 333
40–50% 44.6% 43.6% 156
50–60% 54.5% 55.9% 143
60–70% 64.8% 67.0% 97
70–80% 74.5% 71.4% 49
80–90% 83.7% 80.0% 10
90–100% 91.0% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs Olancho FC 1-1 25% 31% -18.1 29% 30% -4.7 46% 51% -10.5
05.08.23 Genesis Huracan vs CD Motagua 0-0 23% 29% -20.6 28% 30% -6.3 49% 53% -8.5
06.08.23 CD Marathon vs CD Vida 2-0 55% 60% -8.4 26% 29% -7.5 19% 24% -19.8
06.08.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Real Espana 4-0 55% 60% -7.8 27% 29% -9.1 18% 23% -20.4
10.08.23 CD Vida vs Genesis Huracan 2-4 49% 53% -8.2 29% 31% -8.2 22% 28% -19.1
12.08.23 Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM 2-1 52% 56% -7.9 27% 29% -7.9 21% 26% -20.6
13.08.23 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-2 17% 21% -20.3 25% 26% -4.5 58% 65% -9.9
13.08.23 Olancho FC vs CD Vida 2-1 67% 72% -7.0 22% 25% -12.1 11% 14% -22.4
14.08.23 CD Motagua vs CD Marathon 3-0 43% 48% -10.4 30% 32% -6.4 27% 32% -15.8
17.08.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 3-3 13% 16% -20.4 23% 24% -4.5 65% 71% -9.7
19.08.23 CD Marathon vs Real Espana 2-0 43% 48% -10.5 31% 34% -7.7 26% 30% -13.9
20.08.23 Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis Huracan 1-0 55% 60% -7.8 26% 29% -8.2 19% 24% -20.8
21.08.23 CD Vida vs CD Motagua 3-3 25% 30% -16.2 29% 31% -4.7 45% 51% -11.7
27.08.23 CD Marathon vs CD Victoria La Ceiba 1-1 64% 70% -8.4 23% 26% -9.5 13% 16% -20.1
27.08.23 CD Motagua vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-2 32% 38% -17.0 28% 29% -1.2 40% 45% -12.3
28.08.23 Genesis Huracan vs Real Espana 2-1 36% 47% -23.6 29% 30% -4.2 35% 36% -0.7
28.08.23 Olancho FC vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 0-0 61% 67% -9.0 24% 26% -7.8 16% 20% -21.6
03.09.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs CD Vida 6-2 72% 76% -5.2 19% 22% -14.8 10% 13% -27.2
03.09.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs CD Marathon 2-0 28% 33% -14.7 30% 31% -4.3 42% 48% -12.5
04.09.23 Olancho FC vs Genesis Huracan 1-2 54% 58% -8.1 27% 30% -9.8 19% 24% -20.5
04.09.23 Real Espana vs CD Motagua 3-3 39% 48% -17.1 30% 31% -4.3 31% 34% -9.7
14.09.23 CD Motagua vs Olancho FC 1-0 42% 43% -3.6 30% 32% -8.1 28% 36% -21.8
14.09.23 Lobos UPNFM vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 3-3 18% 23% -20.5 25% 26% -3.8 57% 63% -10.6
14.09.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs Real Espana 2-1 38% 47% -19.2 30% 31% -3.6 33% 35% -6.7
17.09.23 CD Marathon vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-1 27% 32% -15.8 29% 29% -2.4 44% 50% -11.8
17.09.23 CD Motagua vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 0-0 59% 62% -4.4 25% 29% -14.1 16% 21% -25.3
17.09.23 Olancho FC vs Lobos UPNFM 2-1 67% 73% -8.5 21% 23% -7.4 12% 15% -21.1
18.09.23 CD Vida vs Real Espana 1-0 34% 42% -19.5 30% 32% -5.7 36% 38% -7.4
18.09.23 Genesis Huracan vs CD Victoria La Ceiba 3-1 51% 57% -11.2 28% 29% -5.7 22% 26% -16.1
21.09.23 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs CD Motagua 0-4 28% 34% -19.1 30% 32% -6.2 42% 45% -7.9
21.09.23 Real Espana vs Olancho FC 3-1 33% 40% -16.6 30% 31% -4.0 37% 41% -10.2
22.09.23 Lobos UPNFM vs CD Marathon 1-3 33% 41% -19.1 30% 32% -5.5 36% 39% -7.0
22.09.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Genesis Huracan 4-1 60% 61% -2.9 24% 29% -14.9 16% 22% -27.5
24.09.23 CD Marathon vs Olancho FC 0-2 42% 49% -13.5 31% 32% -5.4 27% 31% -11.2
24.09.23 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs Real Espana 4-3 27% 34% -19.2 30% 31% -5.2 43% 47% -7.6
25.09.23 Genesis Huracan vs CD Vida 1-2 51% 56% -9.0 27% 29% -6.2 23% 29% -20.7
25.09.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 3-0 69% 73% -4.9 19% 22% -14.2 12% 16% -28.1
30.09.23 CD Motagua vs Genesis Huracan 1-0 55% 60% -8.9 26% 29% -8.2 19% 24% -20.6
01.10.23 CD Vida vs CD Marathon 1-1 34% 42% -19.0 31% 32% -5.3 35% 38% -6.5
01.10.23 Olancho FC vs CD Victoria La Ceiba 0-2 67% 71% -6.9 21% 24% -12.2 12% 16% -24.6
02.10.23 Real Espana vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-1 26% 30% -13.8 30% 31% -4.5 44% 51% -12.8
05.10.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Olancho FC 1-0 54% 58% -8.0 24% 24% -2.8 22% 29% -23.5
07.10.23 CD Marathon vs CD Motagua 2-1 38% 45% -15.8 32% 34% -6.9 30% 33% -9.5
08.10.23 CD Vida vs Olancho FC 0-0 35% 42% -18.2 30% 32% -5.5 35% 38% -9.0
08.10.23 Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana 1-3 35% 43% -19.4 29% 30% -3.2 36% 38% -7.4
09.10.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs CD Victoria La Ceiba 1-1 75% 79% -4.7 17% 21% -18.8 8% 11% -29.5
09.10.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs Genesis Huracan 0-1 39% 45% -13.7 30% 31% -4.4 31% 36% -13.5
18.10.23 Genesis Huracan vs Lobos UPNFM 1-0 51% 59% -12.7 27% 28% -3.2 22% 26% -15.0
19.10.23 CD Motagua vs CD Vida 3-0 53% 57% -6.8 26% 29% -8.1 20% 26% -22.2
19.10.23 Olancho FC vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-1 35% 42% -15.8 31% 32% -5.1 34% 38% -10.8
20.10.23 Real Espana vs CD Marathon 1-2 40% 48% -16.0 30% 32% -5.8 30% 33% -11.2
22.10.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs Olancho FC 0-1 30% 36% -18.3 31% 34% -7.5 39% 43% -8.5
23.10.23 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs CD Marathon 0-1 23% 29% -21.1 27% 29% -4.3 49% 54% -8.5
23.10.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs CD Motagua 3-0 60% 65% -8.1 25% 28% -10.4 15% 19% -21.1
24.10.23 Real Espana vs Genesis Huracan 0-0 48% 53% -10.2 28% 29% -5.2 24% 29% -18.1
29.10.23 CD Marathon vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 2-1 57% 62% -8.3 26% 29% -8.1 17% 21% -18.7
29.10.23 CD Motagua vs Real Espana 4-1 52% 58% -11.4 27% 28% -4.5 22% 26% -17.8
29.10.23 CD Vida vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 1-3 19% 24% -19.8 28% 30% -7.5 53% 58% -9.1
30.10.23 Genesis Huracan vs Olancho FC 2-2 31% 37% -16.3 33% 36% -9.1 36% 39% -8.3
05.11.23 Genesis Huracan vs CD Marathon 0-1 34% 41% -16.4 30% 32% -5.5 35% 40% -11.4
05.11.23 Olancho FC vs CD Motagua 0-1 37% 43% -13.8 30% 31% -4.1 33% 38% -13.3
06.11.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Lobos UPNFM 3-1 83% 89% -6.8 12% 14% -14.7 5% 6% -26.6
08.11.23 Real Espana vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 1-0 52% 57% -8.4 28% 30% -8.8 20% 25% -19.8
09.11.23 Lobos UPNFM vs CD Motagua 1-4 23% 30% -22.8 28% 31% -7.5 48% 52% -7.1
12.11.23 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs Genesis Huracan 2-2 35% 41% -13.4 29% 30% -3.3 35% 42% -15.1
12.11.23 Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC 2-2 30% 38% -22.1 29% 31% -5.9 41% 43% -6.5
12.11.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs CD Motagua 3-2 28% 33% -17.4 30% 31% -4.9 43% 48% -10.3
13.11.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs CD Marathon 5-1 67% 74% -9.5 21% 23% -6.2 12% 14% -18.5
13.11.23 Real Espana vs CD Vida 3-1 52% 56% -8.3 28% 31% -8.9 20% 25% -19.3
25.11.23 CD Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM 3-0 66% 74% -10.5 21% 22% -3.5 13% 15% -17.3
25.11.23 CD Motagua vs CD Victoria La Ceiba 1-3 75% 81% -7.2 17% 18% -9.1 9% 11% -24.5
25.11.23 Genesis Huracan vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 1-2 17% 22% -23.4 25% 27% -6.9 58% 62% -7.5
25.11.23 Olancho FC vs Real Espana 1-1 45% 52% -12.3 29% 31% -5.7 26% 30% -15.7
30.11.23 Real Sociedad de Tocoa vs Genesis Huracan 0-0 40% 45% -12.2 31% 33% -7.0 29% 34% -14.3
01.12.23 Olancho FC vs CD Motagua 2-2 38% 45% -16.0 31% 32% -5.0 31% 34% -9.6
03.12.23 Genesis Huracan vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 3-2 46% 51% -10.4 30% 32% -7.3 24% 29% -15.6
04.12.23 CD Motagua vs Olancho FC 1-1 48% 55% -11.7 28% 29% -5.0 24% 29% -16.7
07.12.23 CD Motagua vs CD Marathon 2-1 50% 56% -10.6 29% 31% -6.7 21% 24% -14.7
08.12.23 Genesis Huracan vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-1 12% 16% -21.9 21% 22% -3.5 66% 73% -9.5
09.12.23 CD Marathon vs CD Motagua 2-2 45% 54% -16.2 29% 29% -3.0 26% 29% -11.0
10.12.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Genesis Huracan 2-0 78% 83% -5.0 15% 19% -20.5 6% 9% -30.0
18.12.23 CD Motagua vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-0 20% 24% -19.0 27% 28% -3.9 54% 60% -10.1
22.12.23 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs CD Motagua 2-1 63% 66% -5.0 23% 27% -13.7 14% 19% -26.1
20.01.24 CD Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM 3-1 67% 74% -9.8 22% 23% -6.0 11% 14% -16.8
21.01.24 CD Vida vs Real Espana 1-2 27% 31% -12.4 30% 31% -3.6 43% 50% -14.1
22.01.24 CD Motagua vs Olancho FC 2-2 45% 51% -11.0 30% 32% -7.6 25% 30% -16.7
22.01.24 Genesis Huracan vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 2-2 11% 14% -21.6 20% 21% -3.3 69% 76% -9.1
28.01.24 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs Genesis Huracan 1-1 39% 44% -12.4 29% 29% -2.4 32% 38% -15.8
28.01.24 Olancho FC vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 0-1 58% 62% -7.3 26% 29% -10.2 16% 21% -21.3
28.01.24 Real Espana vs CD Motagua 3-1 39% 44% -11.3 28% 29% -1.6 32% 39% -17.3
29.01.24 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs CD Marathon 1-1 67% 72% -7.1 21% 24% -11.7 12% 15% -24.3
01.02.24 CD Marathon vs Genesis Huracan 3-0 46% 49% -5.4 28% 31% -7.4 25% 32% -21.3
01.02.24 CD Motagua vs CD Victoria La Ceiba 3-0 60% 62% -4.7 25% 28% -11.7 16% 21% -24.3
01.02.24 Olancho FC vs Real Espana 1-1 37% 41% -9.3 31% 34% -7.8 32% 38% -17.5
02.02.24 CD Vida vs Olimpia Tegucigalpa 0-4 14% 19% -25.9 23% 25% -8.8 63% 68% -7.3
04.02.24 CD Marathon vs CD Vida 7-0 69% 77% -10.2 20% 21% -3.3 11% 12% -15.4
04.02.24 CD Victoria La Ceiba vs Olancho FC 0-1 28% 33% -15.2 30% 31% -4.4 42% 48% -12.1
04.02.24 Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana 1-1 28% 33% -17.3 29% 30% -3.9 43% 49% -11.2
05.02.24 Genesis Huracan vs CD Motagua 0-1 27% 30% -9.9 30% 31% -3.6 43% 51% -16.1
05.02.24 Olimpia Tegucigalpa vs Real Sociedad de Tocoa 2-1 78% 81% -4.4 15% 19% -20.2 7% 10% -30.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 564 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olimpia Tegucigalpa 1787.89
2 CD Marathon 1737.41
3 CD Motagua 1704.47
4 Real Espana 1694.92
5 Olancho FC 1672.28
6 CD Estrella Roja (HON) 1632.35
7 Genesis Huracan 1576.00
8 Lobos UPNFM 1567.82
9 CD Platense 1502.07
10 CD Choloma 1482.37
11 Club Atletico Independiente Siguatepeque 1470.69
12 Juticalpa FC 1419.60

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Real Espana 1701.80
2 CD Motagua 1676.73
3 Olimpia Tegucigalpa 1665.30
4 CD Marathon 1632.62
5 Olancho FC 1568.08
6 Genesis Huracan 1521.63
7 Lobos UPNFM 1510.76
8 CD Estrella Roja (HON) 1510.06
9 Club Atletico Independiente Siguatepeque 1481.64
10 CD Platense 1438.26
11 CD Choloma 1423.04
12 Juticalpa FC 1399.77