Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5

Countries 150

Status Live

Continent

Country

League

No cached league history dataset for this league yet.

Matches 314

Avg Goals 3.41

Avg Home 1.77

Avg Away 1.64

Home Win % 42.7%

Draw % 17.5%

Away Win % 39.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.

Home Team

Away Team

Margin %

Calculating…

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Rows Created0

Rows Ready0

Margin0.00%

Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Value edge threshold (relative %)

Flat stake (units)

Market weight (0–1)

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…

Matches Backtested 314

Avg Brier Score 0.4621

Pick Accuracy 65.0%

Source postgres

Raw Model Brier 0.4684

Market Brier 0.4621

Blended Model Beats Market? Yes

Market Weight 0.7

"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.

Value Bets Found 1

Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%

ROI (flat stake) -100.0%

ROI Trustworthy? No

Before trusting this ROI:

100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.

Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 314 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.

Side	Bets	Hit Rate	Staked	Profit	ROI
home	0	-	0.00	0.00	-
draw	0	-	0.00	0.00	-
away	1	0.0%	1.00	-1.00	-100.0%

Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.

Predicted Range	Predicted Avg	Actual Freq	Samples
0–10%	6.2%	6.5%	138
10–20%	15.3%	12.9%	225
20–30%	24.2%	24.9%	217
30–40%	35.0%	38.5%	65
40–50%	45.2%	35.4%	65
50–60%	55.4%	59.2%	49
60–70%	65.3%	66.7%	63
70–80%	75.1%	86.8%	53
80–90%	84.8%	83.7%	49
90–100%	92.6%	88.9%	18

Date	Match	Result	HOME (1)			DRAW (X)			AWAY (2)
Date	Match	Result	Model	Price	Edge	Model	Price	Edge	Model	Price	Edge
19.08.23	Kitchee SC vs Wofoo Tai Po	3-0	91%	96%	-5.3	6%	8%	-25.5	3%	4%	-29.3
19.08.23	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs North District	1-1	38%	47%	-17.9	23%	27%	-12.1	38%	40%	-4.1
20.08.23	Eastern Football Team vs HK U23 Football Team	3-0	92%	96%	-4.4	6%	8%	-28.2	2%	3%	-31.0
20.08.23	Sham Shui Po vs Southern District	1-4	8%	11%	-26.5	13%	17%	-21.1	79%	83%	-4.8
26.08.23	Eastern Football Team vs Wofoo Tai Po	0-1	70%	77%	-8.5	18%	21%	-14.4	12%	13%	-11.6
26.08.23	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs Lee Man Warriors FC	1-3	5%	7%	-23.9	11%	13%	-20.0	84%	89%	-5.8
26.08.23	Southern District vs HK U23 Football Team	4-0	91%	96%	-4.9	6%	8%	-25.6	2%	3%	-28.1
27.08.23	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Sham Shui Po	9-0	88%	93%	-4.7	8%	11%	-25.7	4%	6%	-29.8
27.08.23	Kitchee SC vs Hong Kong FC	8-0	91%	95%	-4.5	6%	9%	-29.3	3%	4%	-32.4
03.09.23	Wofoo Tai Po vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	1-0	15%	17%	-15.2	20%	23%	-15.0	66%	71%	-7.5
16.09.23	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Kitchee SC	4-1	19%	24%	-18.4	22%	27%	-16.8	58%	62%	-5.4
17.09.23	Sham Shui Po vs Hong Kong FC	0-1	20%	25%	-19.0	22%	26%	-16.3	58%	61%	-4.8
23.09.23	Lee Man Warriors FC vs HK U23 Football Team	5-0	95%	99%	-4.1	3%	5%	-28.6	2%	2%	-31.9
24.09.23	Kitchee SC vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	2-0	74%	81%	-8.0	16%	19%	-15.2	10%	11%	-13.1
01.10.23	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	4-2	68%	75%	-9.2	18%	21%	-12.8	13%	15%	-10.1
03.10.23	Southern District vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	4-1	83%	88%	-6.5	11%	13%	-14.8	6%	8%	-18.8
07.10.23	Eastern Football Team vs Sham Shui Po	2-1	89%	94%	-5.2	7%	9%	-22.1	3%	5%	-26.9
07.10.23	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Southern District	3-2	65%	75%	-13.5	19%	21%	-7.8	16%	15%	2.5
07.10.23	Wofoo Tai Po vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	3-0	65%	70%	-8.3	20%	23%	-14.5	16%	18%	-13.8
21.10.23	Wofoo Tai Po vs Southern District	1-0	22%	29%	-24.5	23%	29%	-19.9	56%	55%	1.1
22.10.23	HK U23 Football Team vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	0-5	3%	5%	-27.1	7%	9%	-21.4	89%	94%	-5.3
22.10.23	Hong Kong FC vs Eastern Football Team	0-2	10%	12%	-17.4	17%	21%	-17.3	72%	78%	-6.5
28.10.23	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Eastern Football Team	1-1	65%	69%	-6.7	19%	23%	-15.7	16%	19%	-17.4
29.10.23	HK U23 Football Team vs Hong Kong FC	1-1	16%	19%	-17.5	20%	23%	-15.3	65%	69%	-6.8
29.10.23	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	0-6	9%	12%	-21.6	15%	18%	-17.9	76%	81%	-6.0
05.11.23	Hong Kong FC vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	0-3	9%	11%	-16.9	15%	17%	-15.0	76%	83%	-7.8
12.11.23	Hong Kong FC vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	4-1	56%	61%	-8.4	23%	26%	-14.4	21%	24%	-12.8
24.11.23	Kitchee SC vs Southern District	0-0	71%	81%	-12.2	17%	18%	-6.8	12%	12%	1.4
25.11.23	HK U23 Football Team vs North District	1-3	15%	18%	-20.1	18%	22%	-15.9	67%	71%	-5.9
26.11.23	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Sham Shui Po	3-1	94%	99%	-4.6	4%	5%	-27.4	2%	2%	-31.1
03.12.23	North District vs Kitchee SC	2-3	4%	6%	-26.2	8%	11%	-19.9	87%	92%	-5.1
08.12.23	Kitchee SC vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	5-1	95%	99%	-4.2	4%	5%	-26.6	2%	2%	-30.5
09.12.23	Eastern Football Team vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	2-1	41%	44%	-7.9	26%	30%	-14.9	33%	38%	-11.9
10.12.23	Wofoo Tai Po vs Lee Man Warriors FC	2-3	13%	17%	-20.8	18%	22%	-17.6	68%	72%	-4.8
17.12.23	North District vs Hong Kong FC	2-2	56%	65%	-12.7	22%	25%	-11.9	22%	23%	-6.3
24.12.23	North District vs Southern District	1-2	24%	31%	-23.6	23%	28%	-17.9	53%	53%	1.3
27.01.24	Wofoo Tai Po vs HK U23 Football Team	6-0	83%	88%	-5.2	11%	13%	-20.3	6%	8%	-25.4
17.02.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Kitchee SC	0-1	12%	15%	-18.6	17%	20%	-15.3	71%	76%	-6.3
17.02.24	Southern District vs Eastern Football Team	1-1	43%	51%	-16.0	26%	30%	-14.5	31%	31%	0.7
17.02.24	Wofoo Tai Po vs North District	5-0	55%	62%	-11.5	22%	26%	-12.6	22%	24%	-8.5
18.02.24	HK U23 Football Team vs Lee Man Warriors FC	1-5	2%	2%	-30.7	4%	5%	-26.6	94%	99%	-4.7
18.02.24	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs Hong Kong FC	1-3	23%	29%	-18.4	24%	29%	-16.9	53%	56%	-4.7
24.02.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs North District	2-3	56%	59%	-4.9	22%	26%	-15.4	22%	28%	-19.4
24.02.24	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Wofoo Tai Po	0-0	64%	66%	-3.8	19%	23%	-17.3	17%	22%	-22.6
25.02.24	Hong Kong FC vs Southern District	0-5	20%	26%	-24.2	21%	25%	-17.9	60%	61%	-1.8
25.02.24	Kitchee SC vs HK U23 Football Team	6-0	94%	98%	-4.5	4%	6%	-30.3	2%	3%	-33.3
25.02.24	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs Eastern Football Team	0-4	5%	7%	-29.4	11%	15%	-26.2	84%	88%	-4.2
02.03.24	HK U23 Football Team vs Southern District	0-4	3%	4%	-23.0	8%	10%	-20.0	89%	95%	-6.1
02.03.24	Wofoo Tai Po vs Eastern Football Team	1-0	34%	40%	-15.8	26%	31%	-15.5	40%	42%	-3.2
03.03.24	Hong Kong FC vs Kitchee SC	1-3	4%	5%	-26.1	7%	9%	-19.4	89%	93%	-4.9
03.03.24	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	4-1	93%	98%	-4.7	5%	6%	-29.2	2%	3%	-32.0
03.03.24	Sham Shui Po vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	3-1	7%	8%	-16.1	11%	12%	-9.0	82%	88%	-7.4
06.03.24	Eastern Football Team vs North District	1-0	60%	65%	-7.9	22%	26%	-15.5	18%	21%	-13.8
10.03.24	Eastern Football Team vs Southern District	2-1	33%	38%	-12.2	26%	31%	-15.5	40%	43%	-6.9
10.03.24	Lee Man Warriors FC vs North District	4-0	79%	84%	-5.5	13%	16%	-19.5	8%	10%	-23.3
13.03.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Southern District	0-4	34%	37%	-9.2	24%	28%	-12.5	42%	48%	-11.7
16.03.24	Eastern Football Team vs Lee Man Warriors FC	1-1	22%	26%	-16.7	23%	28%	-16.1	55%	58%	-5.8
16.03.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	2-0	78%	81%	-3.0	13%	17%	-25.1	9%	12%	-30.1
16.03.24	Southern District vs North District	2-2	65%	71%	-8.1	19%	23%	-14.8	15%	18%	-15.2
17.03.24	Hong Kong FC vs HK U23 Football Team	2-1	69%	81%	-15.0	17%	17%	-0.3	14%	11%	22.2
17.03.24	Sham Shui Po vs Kitchee SC	0-3	2%	3%	-29.3	5%	7%	-24.7	93%	98%	-5.2
30.03.24	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs Kitchee SC	1-4	2%	3%	-29.6	4%	6%	-23.5	93%	97%	-4.0
31.03.24	Hong Kong FC vs Lee Man Warriors FC	0-4	8%	11%	-26.6	13%	16%	-20.9	79%	83%	-4.7
31.03.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Eastern Football Team	1-5	28%	29%	-3.3	24%	28%	-12.4	47%	55%	-14.0
31.03.24	North District vs Wofoo Tai Po	1-3	19%	21%	-11.1	22%	25%	-13.4	60%	66%	-9.3
06.04.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Wofoo Tai Po	1-4	33%	34%	-1.2	24%	28%	-12.4	42%	51%	-16.5
06.04.24	Kitchee SC vs Eastern Football Team	0-0	65%	69%	-6.0	20%	24%	-17.0	15%	18%	-17.7
06.04.24	Southern District vs Hong Kong FC	2-1	80%	87%	-8.1	13%	15%	-14.0	7%	9%	-15.4
07.04.24	North District vs Sham Shui Po	4-1	57%	60%	-4.3	22%	26%	-16.7	21%	26%	-19.8
13.04.24	Eastern Football Team vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	5-0	92%	96%	-4.6	6%	8%	-21.2	2%	3%	-23.8
13.04.24	Southern District vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	1-0	59%	65%	-8.6	21%	24%	-13.4	20%	23%	-13.8
14.04.24	Kitchee SC vs North District	4-0	83%	88%	-5.9	11%	13%	-17.9	6%	8%	-23.0
14.04.24	Sham Shui Po vs Wofoo Tai Po	0-1	11%	13%	-12.6	16%	18%	-11.2	73%	79%	-8.6
17.04.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Lee Man Warriors FC	0-3	11%	13%	-12.4	17%	19%	-12.5	72%	79%	-9.2
20.04.24	Lee Man Warriors FC vs Hong Kong FC	2-0	89%	94%	-5.5	7%	9%	-19.0	4%	5%	-25.7
20.04.24	Southern District vs Sham Shui Po	0-2	74%	76%	-3.3	16%	20%	-21.9	11%	14%	-26.1
20.04.24	Wofoo Tai Po vs Kitchee SC	0-0	19%	23%	-19.3	22%	26%	-17.2	60%	62%	-4.7
21.04.24	HK U23 Football Team vs Eastern Football Team	0-6	3%	4%	-31.9	6%	9%	-28.8	91%	95%	-4.2
21.04.24	North District vs Resources Capital Tai Chung	3-2	81%	87%	-7.4	13%	15%	-14.6	7%	8%	-14.8
27.04.24	Southern District vs Lee Man Warriors FC	0-1	20%	23%	-14.2	22%	25%	-13.7	59%	64%	-7.5
28.04.24	Hong Kong FC vs Wofoo Tai Po	0-3	11%	13%	-20.5	16%	20%	-17.9	73%	78%	-6.6
28.04.24	North District vs Hong Kong Rangers FC	0-1	30%	34%	-10.2	23%	26%	-11.2	46%	52%	-10.8
28.04.24	Sham Shui Po vs Eastern Football Team	0-3	6%	7%	-19.9	10%	12%	-13.3	84%	90%	-6.9
01.05.24	Eastern Football Team vs Kitchee SC	2-1	28%	33%	-15.0	25%	29%	-14.8	47%	49%	-4.5
01.05.24	Wofoo Tai Po vs Sham Shui Po	2-1	82%	86%	-5.0	11%	15%	-23.5	7%	10%	-28.4
04.05.24	Eastern Football Team vs Hong Kong FC	0-0	85%	90%	-6.0	10%	12%	-19.7	5%	7%	-23.7
04.05.24	Southern District vs Wofoo Tai Po	0-0	35%	41%	-13.1	25%	29%	-14.2	39%	43%	-7.7
05.05.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs HK U23 Football Team	5-0	89%	93%	-4.3	7%	9%	-23.9	4%	6%	-29.8
05.05.24	North District vs Lee Man Warriors FC	0-4	7%	9%	-21.9	10%	11%	-10.9	84%	90%	-7.2
07.05.24	Wofoo Tai Po vs Hong Kong FC	3-0	81%	85%	-4.9	12%	15%	-20.3	6%	8%	-22.8
12.05.24	Hong Kong FC vs North District	1-0	27%	32%	-16.4	24%	28%	-14.3	49%	52%	-5.0
18.05.24	Resources Capital Tai Chung vs Wofoo Tai Po	1-1	3%	4%	-28.7	7%	9%	-23.5	90%	94%	-4.3
18.05.24	Southern District vs Kitchee SC	0-3	19%	23%	-15.7	21%	25%	-14.4	59%	64%	-7.2
19.05.24	Hong Kong Rangers FC vs Hong Kong FC	2-1	67%	70%	-4.3	18%	23%	-18.8	14%	18%	-22.3
19.05.24	North District vs HK U23 Football Team	0-1	78%	83%	-5.6	13%	16%	-19.2	9%	12%	-25.3
19.05.24	Sham Shui Po vs Lee Man Warriors FC	1-6	5%	7%	-31.4	8%	11%	-26.2	87%	91%	-4.2
22.05.24	Eastern Football Team vs Hong Kong FC	5-0	82%	86%	-5.0	12%	15%	-22.5	6%	8%	-25.5
26.05.24	HK U23 Football Team vs Wofoo Tai Po	2-4	2%	2%	-29.1	4%	6%	-24.4	94%	98%	-4.2
26.05.24	Hong Kong FC vs Sham Shui Po	0-0	36%	39%	-8.7	25%	29%	-13.6	39%	43%	-10.8
26.05.24	Kitchee SC vs Lee Man Warriors FC	2-3	40%	45%	-12.3	25%	29%	-13.2	35%	38%	-8.2

Showing the 100 most recent of 314 evaluated matches.

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Home Ratings

11 teams

Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank	Team	Rating
1	Lee Man Warriors FC	1777.28
2	Kitchee SC	1766.63
3	North District	1658.52
4	Wofoo Tai Po	1599.44
5	Southern District	1548.54
6	Eastern Football Team	1532.80
7	Eastern District SA	1529.91
8	Kowloon City	1453.92
9	Hong Kong Rangers FC	1382.18
10	Shatin SA	1353.08
11	Hong Kong FC	1268.47

Away Ratings

11 teams

Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank	Team	Rating
1	Lee Man Warriors FC	1782.64
2	North District	1692.05
3	Kitchee SC	1680.70
4	Wofoo Tai Po	1650.17
5	Southern District	1547.73
6	Eastern Football Team	1545.14
7	Kowloon City	1450.80
8	Eastern District SA	1442.82
9	Hong Kong Rangers FC	1414.34
10	Shatin SA	1387.29
11	Hong Kong FC	1266.19