ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 160
Avg Goals 3.84
Avg Home 2.01
Avg Away 1.82
Home Win % 43.8%
Draw % 14.4%
Away Win % 41.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 160
Avg Brier Score 0.4888
Pick Accuracy 63.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4890
Market Brier 0.5003
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 145.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 160 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit 4.35 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 1.55 155.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 100.0% 2.00 2.80 140.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.4% 2.9% 34
10–20% 15.5% 14.2% 120
20–30% 23.1% 20.2% 129
30–40% 34.9% 41.9% 43
40–50% 45.5% 44.2% 43
50–60% 55.2% 61.1% 36
60–70% 64.8% 64.5% 31
70–80% 74.0% 75.0% 24
80–90% 84.3% 94.1% 17
90–100% 91.8% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.08.23 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 3-2 44% 44% -1.4 23% 29% -18.5 33% 39% -16.1
10.08.23 Grotta (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 1-1 74% 76% -2.0 14% 19% -24.9 11% 16% -28.4
10.08.23 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 5-0 58% 56% 2.1 21% 27% -23.0 21% 29% -24.8
12.08.23 UMF Grindavik (W) vs KR Reykjavik (W) 3-2 76% 76% -0.8 14% 19% -28.0 11% 15% -31.4
17.08.23 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 2-2 15% 20% -22.9 18% 24% -22.8 66% 68% -2.7
17.08.23 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs Augnablik Kopavogur (W) 7-1 89% 92% -3.1 7% 11% -33.1 4% 6% -34.6
17.08.23 KR Reykjavik (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 2-3 9% 12% -31.3 12% 17% -28.4 79% 81% -2.9
17.08.23 UMF Grindavik (W) vs Grotta (W) 3-5 33% 38% -13.8 22% 27% -16.9 44% 47% -4.6
23.08.23 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs KR Reykjavik (W) 5-1 93% 97% -3.9 5% 7% -34.2 2% 3% -34.6
24.08.23 Augnablik Kopavogur (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1-3 7% 11% -32.9 9% 13% -28.5 83% 86% -3.4
24.08.23 HK Kopavogur (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 5-0 65% 66% -2.5 18% 23% -21.1 17% 22% -22.6
25.08.23 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 2-3 13% 19% -29.4 15% 20% -25.2 72% 72% -1.2
26.08.23 Grotta (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 4-2 74% 75% -0.7 14% 19% -27.0 12% 17% -31.2
29.08.23 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 4-2 66% 67% -1.0 18% 24% -24.3 16% 21% -26.3
01.09.23 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Grotta (W) 1-3 54% 56% -3.7 20% 25% -18.2 25% 31% -18.7
02.09.23 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 4-0 81% 83% -2.3 10% 14% -27.8 8% 12% -32.0
02.09.23 KR Reykjavik (W) vs Augnablik Kopavogur (W) 7-0 51% 53% -4.2 20% 24% -16.2 29% 34% -17.0
04.09.23 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 2-2 63% 62% 1.0 19% 24% -23.7 19% 26% -27.1
04.09.23 UMF Grindavik (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 4-2 16% 24% -31.1 16% 22% -26.6 67% 65% 3.0
09.09.23 Augnablik Kopavogur (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 0-7 7% 11% -32.8 10% 14% -29.2 82% 85% -2.8
09.09.23 Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 3-3 24% 31% -22.9 20% 24% -19.8 57% 57% -0.8
09.09.23 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs KR Reykjavik (W) 3-2 57% 56% 0.1 17% 21% -17.0 26% 34% -24.7
09.09.23 Grotta (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 2-3 38% 43% -13.4 22% 26% -15.6 41% 43% -6.4
09.09.23 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 0-1 60% 61% -0.7 19% 24% -21.2 21% 27% -23.7
05.05.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 0-3 53% 56% -6.2 22% 28% -19.1 25% 29% -13.2
05.05.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 2-2 44% 45% -3.7 23% 28% -18.3 34% 40% -16.2
06.05.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 8-2 75% 76% -0.6 14% 19% -27.8 11% 16% -31.4
06.05.24 IA Akranes (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 1-0 36% 42% -13.8 22% 26% -16.2 42% 44% -5.4
07.05.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Grotta (W) 3-3 55% 56% -2.2 20% 25% -18.6 25% 31% -19.7
13.05.24 Grotta (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1-1 31% 36% -13.8 22% 27% -17.2 46% 49% -5.1
13.05.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 1-0 25% 34% -26.2 22% 29% -23.6 53% 50% 6.3
14.05.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 2-2 76% 84% -9.5 14% 15% -10.6 10% 10% -0.7
23.05.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 1-0 54% 57% -4.7 22% 27% -19.7 24% 29% -16.7
23.05.24 IA Akranes (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 0-2 26% 31% -17.5 21% 26% -18.1 53% 55% -3.2
23.05.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Grotta (W) 1-3 41% 39% 4.0 22% 27% -17.2 37% 45% -18.9
25.05.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 6-1 70% 68% 2.4 16% 23% -28.5 14% 20% -31.8
29.05.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 1-2 49% 55% -10.7 22% 26% -15.9 30% 32% -8.2
30.05.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 1-1 36% 47% -23.0 23% 29% -19.9 41% 38% 9.5
30.05.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs Grotta (W) 0-2 13% 18% -29.8 15% 20% -26.0 72% 73% -0.8
05.06.24 Grotta (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 0-1 57% 63% -10.0 20% 24% -16.0 23% 24% -7.6
05.06.24 IA Akranes (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 3-0 65% 63% 2.1 17% 23% -25.2 18% 26% -30.2
06.06.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 1-0 39% 43% -9.6 23% 28% -17.3 38% 42% -9.4
06.06.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 3-1 69% 71% -3.3 17% 22% -22.2 15% 19% -23.8
14.06.24 IA Akranes (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 0-3 29% 35% -16.1 23% 28% -18.8 48% 50% -4.0
14.06.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 0-4 19% 27% -28.3 20% 27% -25.7 61% 58% 4.1
15.06.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1-0 20% 26% -22.7 19% 24% -20.5 61% 62% -1.4
20.06.24 Grotta (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 2-0 37% 47% -21.0 22% 27% -17.7 41% 39% 5.3
21.06.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 3-0 58% 55% 6.4 20% 27% -25.0 22% 30% -28.9
21.06.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 4-1 82% 85% -2.7 10% 14% -29.5 7% 11% -33.0
22.06.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 1-0 33% 34% -1.4 24% 29% -17.6 43% 50% -13.9
23.06.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 0-6 44% 47% -5.9 22% 26% -15.6 35% 40% -13.5
26.06.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 4-2 48% 51% -5.2 24% 29% -19.9 29% 33% -14.3
27.06.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1-3 60% 65% -7.4 21% 26% -18.6 19% 22% -10.8
27.06.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs Grotta (W) 0-0 31% 34% -11.4 23% 29% -18.6 46% 50% -7.6
28.06.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 0-4 5% 6% -25.6 9% 12% -24.6 86% 90% -4.6
01.07.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 4-1 92% 97% -5.4 5% 7% -33.1 3% 5% -35.2
01.07.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 2-1 46% 45% 0.7 22% 27% -18.3 32% 40% -19.6
05.07.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 4-1 42% 49% -14.5 23% 28% -17.0 35% 36% -1.3
05.07.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 1-2 47% 47% 1.4 22% 27% -18.6 31% 39% -20.7
06.07.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 3-3 8% 12% -34.7 11% 17% -32.4 81% 82% -1.4
08.07.24 Grotta (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 1-0 29% 35% -18.5 23% 29% -19.9 48% 49% -0.6
13.07.24 Grotta (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 3-2 59% 60% -1.2 19% 24% -19.7 22% 29% -22.8
19.07.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs Grotta (W) 1-1 49% 56% -12.7 22% 26% -15.4 29% 30% -3.3
19.07.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 1-0 56% 56% -1.3 20% 25% -19.1 24% 30% -20.8
19.07.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 3-0 77% 76% 0.8 13% 18% -31.2 11% 16% -34.2
19.07.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 0-2 47% 53% -12.7 21% 25% -14.8 32% 34% -5.6
24.07.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1-1 30% 33% -10.5 23% 29% -18.3 47% 51% -7.3
25.07.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 1-1 58% 61% -6.1 20% 24% -17.9 22% 27% -16.1
26.07.24 Grotta (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 0-1 52% 51% 1.3 22% 28% -21.3 26% 34% -22.7
26.07.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 0-0 16% 24% -30.9 18% 25% -27.7 65% 63% 3.5
31.07.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 1-4 27% 24% 10.0 21% 24% -14.0 52% 63% -17.5
31.07.24 Grotta (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 1-0 84% 85% -2.2 10% 15% -31.6 6% 10% -33.9
31.07.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 0-3 50% 53% -5.9 23% 28% -18.6 28% 32% -13.6
31.07.24 IA Akranes (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 1-0 47% 52% -9.6 23% 28% -17.1 30% 32% -6.6
31.07.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 3-1 60% 61% -1.7 20% 26% -21.5 20% 25% -21.7
08.08.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 2-3 6% 9% -30.3 11% 16% -28.4 82% 85% -3.0
08.08.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 2-2 15% 20% -23.6 18% 23% -22.6 67% 68% -2.4
09.08.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 3-1 63% 67% -6.6 19% 23% -17.4 18% 21% -13.4
09.08.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs Grotta (W) 1-2 25% 30% -16.2 21% 26% -18.4 53% 56% -4.4
15.08.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 1-3 45% 47% -2.6 24% 29% -19.2 31% 36% -15.0
15.08.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 3-1 60% 57% 4.9 21% 28% -25.7 19% 27% -28.1
15.08.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs IR Reykjavik (W) 4-0 73% 72% 1.5 15% 22% -30.7 12% 17% -33.4
17.08.24 Grotta (W) vs Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) 1-0 45% 42% 6.7 22% 28% -19.8 33% 43% -23.1
21.08.24 Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Grotta (W) 4-1 40% 45% -12.0 24% 29% -18.3 36% 38% -4.7
22.08.24 IA Akranes (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 2-2 51% 53% -4.0 22% 27% -18.4 28% 33% -16.9
22.08.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 1-3 16% 24% -34.1 15% 22% -29.9 69% 66% 4.4
22.08.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 0-3 28% 33% -15.0 21% 24% -15.8 51% 54% -5.5
30.08.24 Grotta (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 3-1 66% 66% 0.2 18% 24% -25.2 16% 23% -28.3
31.08.24 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 1-4 25% 32% -22.3 21% 26% -19.9 54% 54% 0.6
31.08.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs IA Akranes (W) 0-1 61% 65% -4.9 18% 22% -16.8 20% 24% -17.3
31.08.24 UMF Grindavik (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W) 0-1 30% 37% -19.8 21% 25% -17.4 50% 51% -1.7
07.09.24 HK Kopavogur (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 5-0 65% 72% -9.7 17% 20% -13.1 18% 19% -7.5
07.09.24 IA Akranes (W) vs Grotta (W) 1-2 25% 31% -20.1 22% 27% -20.2 53% 54% -1.1
07.09.24 IR Reykjavik (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1-0 14% 19% -28.1 15% 20% -24.1 71% 73% -2.5
07.09.24 UMF Selfoss (W) vs UMF Grindavik (W) 1-1 42% 43% -3.2 23% 28% -17.3 35% 41% -14.3
03.05.25 Grotta (W) vs HK Kopavogur (W) 1-2 39% 38% 2.5 23% 29% -17.8 38% 45% -16.8
08.05.25 HK Kopavogur (W) vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (W) 1-0 80% 83% -2.8 12% 17% -28.2 8% 11% -30.8
08.05.25 IA Akranes (W) vs Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 2-0 71% 75% -5.7 16% 20% -19.4 13% 16% -18.8
16.05.25 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 1-2 11% 16% -29.5 15% 20% -26.5 74% 75% -0.8
16.05.25 Haukar Hafnarfjordur (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 0-6 17% 24% -31.6 18% 24% -27.9 66% 62% 5.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 160 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

11 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 HK Kopavogur (W) 1555.23
2 Grotta (W) 1403.09
3 KR Reykjavik (W) 1372.13
4 IA Akranes (W) 1257.26
5 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 1247.94
6 UMF Selfoss (W) 1238.77
7 Keflavik IF (W) 1238.55
8 UMF Grindavik (W) 1229.03
9 Haukar Hafnarfjordur (W) 1192.16
10 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1046.05
11 IR Reykjavik (W) 906.59

Away Ratings

11 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 HK Kopavogur (W) 1438.31
2 Grotta (W) 1417.82
3 KR Reykjavik (W) 1349.77
4 Keflavik IF (W) 1273.91
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur (W) 1219.11
6 UMF Grindavik (W) 1196.97
7 IA Akranes (W) 1171.32
8 UMF Selfoss (W) 1159.33
9 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 1083.21
10 Afturelding Mosfellsbaer (W) 1059.76
11 IR Reykjavik (W) 959.66