ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 296
Avg Goals 3.47
Avg Home 1.87
Avg Away 1.60
Home Win % 46.6%
Draw % 15.9%
Away Win % 37.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 296
Avg Brier Score 0.5192
Pick Accuracy 62.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5177
Market Brier 0.5219
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) 450.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 296 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit 13.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 50.0% 2.00 14.50 725.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.2% 8.3% 60
10–20% 15.6% 13.1% 206
20–30% 23.6% 23.0% 265
30–40% 34.4% 35.1% 74
40–50% 45.4% 50.6% 79
50–60% 54.9% 56.2% 64
60–70% 64.1% 60.3% 63
70–80% 74.4% 79.6% 49
80–90% 84.3% 84.0% 25
90–100% 92.5% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.08.23 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 0-1 52% 59% -11.0 23% 28% -16.4 24% 26% -4.7
02.08.23 Keflavik IF (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1-1 17% 19% -8.3 20% 24% -16.0 63% 68% -8.7
03.08.23 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 4-0 81% 88% -7.6 12% 14% -15.2 7% 8% -9.9
03.08.23 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 2-1 58% 65% -9.8 22% 26% -16.7 20% 21% -5.7
07.08.23 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 4-2 76% 83% -8.6 14% 16% -13.9 10% 11% -9.5
09.08.23 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1-1 64% 70% -9.8 20% 24% -16.0 16% 17% -5.2
10.08.23 Keflavik IF (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 1-1 27% 30% -12.1 24% 29% -17.7 49% 52% -5.1
10.08.23 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1-1 74% 83% -10.9 14% 15% -7.1 12% 12% -0.0
15.08.23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 1-0 39% 40% -3.6 26% 31% -17.9 36% 41% -12.3
15.08.23 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 2-3 13% 15% -10.7 18% 22% -17.7 69% 75% -8.4
15.08.23 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Tindastoll (W) 0-2 81% 88% -8.3 11% 13% -11.7 7% 8% -6.4
15.08.23 UMF Selfoss (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 1-3 23% 26% -11.0 23% 28% -17.6 54% 58% -7.7
16.08.23 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 4-2 31% 36% -13.4 23% 28% -16.2 46% 49% -6.1
20.08.23 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 0-0 79% 85% -7.2 13% 15% -18.2 8% 10% -15.2
20.08.23 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 0-1 35% 40% -13.4 24% 29% -16.7 42% 44% -6.5
20.08.23 Keflavik IF (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1-0 18% 20% -9.9 21% 26% -17.6 61% 66% -7.5
20.08.23 UMF Selfoss (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 1-2 29% 31% -6.9 24% 29% -16.4 47% 53% -10.7
20.08.23 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 0-3 10% 12% -18.0 15% 18% -19.5 75% 80% -6.1
27.08.23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 0-2 22% 23% -3.6 23% 27% -16.3 55% 62% -11.2
27.08.23 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 3-0 76% 83% -8.4 15% 17% -15.7 9% 10% -5.1
27.08.23 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 4-2 32% 37% -13.4 23% 28% -16.1 45% 48% -6.3
27.08.23 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 0-0 25% 27% -7.2 23% 27% -15.8 52% 58% -9.8
27.08.23 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 4-1 83% 90% -7.8 11% 13% -15.4 6% 6% -7.3
31.08.23 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3-2 52% 57% -9.5 24% 29% -17.8 24% 26% -6.0
31.08.23 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 6-0 72% 78% -8.1 16% 19% -15.3 12% 13% -9.2
04.09.23 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 0-4 49% 53% -8.5 23% 27% -15.9 29% 32% -11.4
05.09.23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs UMF Selfoss (W) 2-1 45% 48% -5.5 25% 31% -17.9 30% 33% -10.7
10.09.23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 1-2 36% 37% -2.2 25% 30% -17.6 39% 45% -14.7
12.09.23 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 2-3 35% 39% -11.1 25% 29% -16.6 41% 43% -6.6
13.09.23 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 3-2 20% 22% -7.5 19% 22% -13.1 61% 68% -11.0
14.09.23 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-0 24% 29% -19.6 23% 29% -20.8 53% 53% -0.8
16.09.23 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 7-2 44% 49% -10.1 24% 29% -15.8 32% 34% -6.9
17.09.23 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 2-0 44% 47% -5.0 24% 29% -16.2 32% 36% -12.4
17.09.23 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 0-2 66% 73% -10.2 18% 21% -13.1 16% 17% -5.8
17.09.23 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3-1 66% 72% -9.3 18% 21% -14.1 16% 18% -9.7
30.09.23 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3-1 55% 60% -7.9 21% 24% -14.6 24% 28% -12.3
30.09.23 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1-3 29% 32% -10.1 23% 28% -16.3 48% 53% -9.3
30.09.23 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-1 26% 29% -8.9 23% 28% -16.6 51% 56% -9.6
06.10.23 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 0-0 55% 62% -10.9 20% 23% -11.7 25% 27% -7.8
06.10.23 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 0-1 46% 53% -14.3 23% 28% -15.9 31% 32% -3.8
06.10.23 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 0-1 53% 56% -4.7 22% 27% -17.1 25% 29% -15.2
08.05.24 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 5-1 67% 75% -10.4 19% 22% -14.2 14% 14% 1.2
08.05.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1-0 34% 36% -5.7 24% 28% -15.3 43% 49% -12.3
08.05.24 Keflavik IF (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-2 9% 9% -5.5 13% 15% -12.8 78% 86% -8.9
09.05.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 1-2 28% 29% -2.3 24% 29% -16.1 48% 55% -12.4
14.05.24 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 4-3 43% 49% -11.9 24% 29% -16.4 33% 36% -7.3
14.05.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 4-0 66% 68% -3.7 19% 24% -21.4 16% 20% -21.1
14.05.24 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Tindastoll (W) 3-1 81% 88% -7.8 12% 14% -14.3 7% 8% -8.2
15.05.24 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 0-2 8% 9% -3.7 13% 14% -11.7 79% 87% -9.1
15.05.24 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 0-1 49% 55% -10.5 22% 26% -14.7 28% 31% -7.9
24.05.24 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 2-1 44% 44% -2.0 25% 30% -18.9 32% 38% -17.1
24.05.24 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 2-1 62% 71% -12.0 20% 23% -13.5 18% 18% -1.2
24.05.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs UMF Tindastoll (W) 5-0 73% 79% -7.9 15% 17% -14.6 12% 14% -12.6
25.05.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 2-2 45% 49% -7.6 24% 29% -16.6 31% 35% -11.4
25.05.24 Keflavik IF (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1-0 25% 27% -5.8 22% 26% -14.9 52% 59% -10.8
08.06.24 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 0-3 26% 28% -8.1 23% 28% -16.7 51% 57% -10.2
08.06.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 0-3 29% 29% -1.4 23% 27% -14.1 48% 56% -13.4
08.06.24 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs UMF Tindastoll (W) 4-2 63% 70% -10.4 20% 24% -15.7 17% 18% -5.1
08.06.24 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 4-0 70% 78% -10.2 17% 19% -11.7 14% 14% -1.3
08.06.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 0-1 53% 58% -7.6 23% 28% -17.9 24% 27% -12.1
15.06.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 1-0 62% 67% -7.2 20% 24% -17.5 18% 20% -12.2
15.06.24 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 1-4 28% 32% -13.1 24% 29% -17.5 48% 52% -6.6
16.06.24 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 3-0 77% 84% -8.2 14% 16% -14.6 9% 10% -8.2
16.06.24 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-4 6% 5% 6.2 9% 10% -5.2 85% 93% -9.3
16.06.24 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 1-1 31% 37% -15.6 24% 29% -17.5 45% 48% -5.1
20.06.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 2-1 9% 9% 1.1 13% 15% -10.4 78% 86% -9.6
21.06.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 3-1 76% 82% -7.4 14% 17% -15.2 10% 11% -10.5
21.06.24 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1-0 47% 55% -14.4 23% 28% -15.6 30% 30% -1.7
21.06.24 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3-1 83% 90% -8.2 10% 11% -9.6 7% 7% -5.9
25.06.24 Keflavik IF (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 0-2 9% 10% -8.7 14% 17% -17.1 77% 83% -7.7
25.06.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-2 21% 22% -6.8 20% 24% -14.2 59% 66% -10.5
25.06.24 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 1-0 74% 83% -11.6 15% 17% -8.8 11% 10% 8.5
26.06.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs UMF Tindastoll (W) 4-1 53% 60% -11.2 23% 28% -16.7 23% 24% -4.2
26.06.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 3-2 45% 51% -12.2 25% 30% -17.6 30% 31% -4.0
02.07.24 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 0-0 19% 20% -5.7 21% 24% -15.3 60% 67% -9.9
02.07.24 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 1-0 56% 65% -12.7 22% 26% -15.0 22% 22% -1.5
02.07.24 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 0-1 9% 10% -10.7 14% 16% -15.4 77% 84% -8.0
03.07.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 0-1 53% 57% -7.2 22% 27% -17.4 25% 29% -13.7
03.07.24 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1-0 73% 79% -7.6 16% 19% -17.0 11% 12% -10.5
06.07.24 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 0-0 37% 43% -13.8 25% 29% -16.6 39% 40% -3.1
07.07.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 0-4 18% 20% -10.6 21% 25% -17.4 61% 67% -7.8
07.07.24 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 2-4 40% 45% -12.2 25% 31% -17.6 35% 36% -4.5
07.07.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 0-2 15% 15% -4.5 19% 23% -16.1 66% 72% -9.0
24.07.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1-2 46% 52% -11.4 24% 28% -15.3 31% 32% -5.3
24.07.24 Keflavik IF (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 0-1 23% 25% -9.0 23% 28% -17.2 54% 59% -7.8
24.07.24 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-4 9% 11% -10.9 14% 17% -15.9 77% 83% -7.3
26.07.24 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 1-0 83% 88% -5.8 10% 13% -19.5 6% 8% -18.6
26.07.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 0-0 40% 45% -12.3 25% 31% -18.0 35% 37% -5.7
30.07.24 Fylkir Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 0-1 33% 38% -14.6 25% 31% -18.4 42% 43% -3.3
30.07.24 Throttur Reykjavik (W) vs Keflavik IF (W) 4-2 64% 71% -10.3 20% 24% -16.0 15% 15% 0.3
30.07.24 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 3-3 20% 22% -8.6 21% 24% -15.4 59% 65% -9.6
31.07.24 Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 1-0 47% 51% -6.6 25% 31% -18.6 27% 30% -9.5
31.07.24 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3-2 47% 52% -8.7 24% 29% -17.0 28% 31% -8.0
09.08.24 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Fylkir Reykjavik (W) 3-1 59% 65% -9.1 22% 27% -18.1 19% 21% -7.9
09.08.24 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W) 1-1 10% 11% -11.3 15% 18% -17.2 75% 81% -6.9
09.08.24 UMF Tindastoll (W) vs Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1-2 20% 22% -9.9 21% 26% -17.0 59% 65% -8.3
10.08.24 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) vs Thor Akureyri (W) 4-2 64% 70% -9.3 19% 22% -14.0 17% 19% -8.4
10.08.24 Keflavik IF (W) vs Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 1-2 23% 24% -5.3 23% 28% -16.5 54% 60% -9.8
15.08.24 Keflavik IF (W) vs FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3-4 27% 29% -6.7 24% 29% -16.4 49% 54% -9.9
15.08.24 Thor Akureyri (W) vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 2-2 55% 61% -9.7 22% 26% -15.5 23% 25% -8.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 296 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 1870.93
2 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 1824.89
3 Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1665.76
4 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1663.65
5 Thor Akureyri (W) 1640.95
6 Valur Reykjavik (W) 1614.96
7 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1609.55
8 Grindavik/Njardvik (W) 1573.18
9 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 1563.96
10 Fram Reykjavik (W) 1514.22

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Breidablik Kopavogur (W) 1837.92
2 FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 1836.21
3 Throttur Reykjavik (W) 1671.11
4 Stjarnan Gardabaer (W) 1650.96
5 Vikingur Reykjavik (W) 1581.95
6 Thor Akureyri (W) 1547.13
7 Grindavik/Njardvik (W) 1536.03
8 Valur Reykjavik (W) 1513.25
9 Fram Reykjavik (W) 1489.40
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1453.69