ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 600
Avg Goals 2.02
Avg Home 1.10
Avg Away 0.92
Home Win % 38.3%
Draw % 34.0%
Away Win % 27.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 600
Avg Brier Score 0.6158
Pick Accuracy 47.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6148
Market Brier 0.6149
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 91
Value Bet Hit Rate 16.5%
ROI (flat stake) 31.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 74.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 79 of 600 matches had at least one · staked 91.00, profit 28.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 11 18.2% 11.00 3.75 34.1%
draw 12 33.3% 12.00 10.75 89.6%
away 68 13.2% 68.00 14.25 21.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.5% 20.0% 5
10–20% 16.1% 13.9% 173
20–30% 25.8% 21.4% 453
30–40% 34.0% 35.1% 821
40–50% 44.4% 47.6% 189
50–60% 54.8% 64.2% 106
60–70% 63.7% 62.5% 48
70–80% 71.7% 40.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
09.08.23 Gol Gohar Sirjan vs Foolad Khuzestan 3-0 35% 40% -11.9 34% 37% -8.7 31% 33% -7.1
09.08.23 Nassaji Mazandaran vs Peykan Qazvin 1-1 40% 45% -12.2 35% 38% -9.5 25% 26% -1.3
10.08.23 Havadar SC vs Mes Rafsanjan 0-0 27% 29% -9.2 32% 34% -6.9 41% 47% -11.5
10.08.23 Sanat Naft Abadan vs Esteghlal Tehran 0-3 22% 23% -4.0 31% 33% -6.0 47% 54% -13.3
10.08.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Tractor Sazi 3-1 50% 58% -14.2 29% 30% -3.2 21% 21% 0.1
15.08.23 Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 45% 52% -13.7 34% 37% -9.1 22% 21% 2.7
15.08.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Gol Gohar Sirjan 0-0 27% 29% -7.8 34% 37% -9.1 39% 44% -11.8
16.08.23 Foolad Khuzestan vs Sanat Naft Abadan 1-2 43% 51% -13.9 33% 36% -7.4 23% 23% 1.7
16.08.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Nassaji Mazandaran 1-1 46% 53% -13.3 31% 32% -5.3 24% 25% -4.8
16.08.23 Shams Azar Qazvin vs Havadar SC 1-2 30% 31% -4.6 34% 36% -7.9 37% 42% -13.0
16.08.23 Tractor Sazi vs Persepolis 0-1 21% 21% -0.9 32% 35% -7.2 47% 54% -13.4
16.08.23 Zob Ahan vs Sepahan Isfahan 0-2 18% 17% 2.6 30% 31% -4.1 52% 61% -13.9
17.08.23 Esteghlal Tehran vs Malavan FC 1-0 66% 79% -15.9 22% 20% 9.8 12% 10% 24.5
22.08.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Shams Azar Qazvin 0-3 45% 51% -13.2 32% 34% -6.9 24% 25% -4.4
23.08.23 Havadar SC vs Aluminium Arak 1-2 31% 32% -5.0 37% 42% -11.7 32% 35% -8.6
23.08.23 Malavan FC vs Foolad Khuzestan 4-0 29% 32% -9.7 35% 38% -9.6 36% 39% -8.0
23.08.23 Sanat Naft Abadan vs Peykan Qazvin 1-1 40% 44% -10.9 34% 38% -9.4 26% 28% -5.6
23.08.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Esteghlal Tehran 1-0 44% 51% -14.8 31% 32% -4.7 26% 26% -3.0
24.08.23 Persepolis vs Zob Ahan 1-1 63% 74% -15.1 24% 24% 2.0 13% 11% 15.2
28.08.23 Esteghlal Tehran vs Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 59% 70% -15.3 25% 25% 1.5 15% 14% 7.8
28.08.23 Tractor Sazi vs Mes Rafsanjan 1-0 44% 51% -14.6 32% 34% -6.5 24% 25% -2.0
29.08.23 Gol Gohar Sirjan vs Malavan FC 1-1 48% 57% -15.7 31% 32% -5.4 21% 21% 2.2
29.08.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Sepahan Isfahan 1-3 14% 12% 11.8 26% 26% 1.9 60% 71% -15.5
30.08.23 Aluminium Arak vs Shams Azar Qazvin 2-0 34% 36% -7.7 34% 37% -8.5 33% 36% -10.5
30.08.23 Foolad Khuzestan vs Persepolis 0-2 18% 17% 5.1 29% 30% -3.0 53% 62% -15.0
30.08.23 Zob Ahan vs Havadar SC 0-0 42% 49% -13.4 34% 37% -9.0 24% 24% -1.3
02.09.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Tractor Sazi 0-1 29% 31% -8.7 34% 37% -8.5 38% 42% -9.8
20.09.23 Havadar SC vs Tractor Sazi 0-1 23% 23% -0.2 33% 35% -6.9 45% 52% -13.8
20.09.23 Malavan FC vs Peykan Qazvin 2-0 40% 45% -13.1 35% 39% -10.4 25% 26% -1.1
21.09.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Zob Ahan 1-2 34% 38% -11.9 34% 37% -8.5 32% 34% -6.6
21.09.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Aluminium Arak 2-0 29% 29% -1.9 38% 43% -12.2 33% 36% -9.3
05.10.23 Aluminium Arak vs Tractor Sazi 0-4 31% 33% -7.8 34% 38% -9.2 35% 39% -10.8
05.10.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Peykan Qazvin 0-1 37% 42% -10.8 33% 36% -8.4 30% 32% -8.5
05.10.23 Shams Azar Qazvin vs Zob Ahan 1-2 34% 38% -10.4 33% 35% -6.9 34% 37% -9.6
06.10.23 Havadar SC vs Foolad Khuzestan 0-1 34% 38% -10.5 35% 38% -9.2 31% 33% -6.0
07.10.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Esteghlal Tehran 0-1 25% 26% -5.3 33% 36% -7.5 42% 48% -11.7
07.10.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Sanat Naft Abadan 4-1 65% 78% -16.7 22% 20% 10.6 13% 11% 21.8
08.10.23 Malavan FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran 1-0 40% 47% -13.3 32% 35% -6.9 27% 29% -4.6
08.10.23 Persepolis vs Gol Gohar Sirjan 1-0 54% 63% -15.4 28% 28% -0.7 19% 18% 4.0
17.10.23 Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak 0-1 35% 38% -9.7 36% 40% -10.4 29% 31% -5.8
19.10.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Persepolis 1-3 14% 12% 18.6 27% 27% 0.9 58% 70% -16.6
19.10.23 Sanat Naft Abadan vs Malavan FC 1-1 35% 39% -12.0 34% 38% -9.2 31% 33% -6.4
20.10.23 Esteghlal Tehran vs Havadar SC 3-2 65% 78% -16.2 23% 22% 6.9 12% 9% 30.2
20.10.23 Foolad Khuzestan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 45% 53% -14.4 32% 35% -7.1 23% 22% 1.6
21.10.23 Tractor Sazi vs Shams Azar Qazvin 2-3 71% 86% -17.5 20% 17% 19.0 9% 5% 76.5
21.10.23 Zob Ahan vs Mes Rafsanjan 1-2 38% 43% -12.4 34% 38% -9.0 28% 29% -3.5
27.10.23 Esteghlal Tehran vs Aluminium Arak 1-0 57% 68% -16.1 27% 27% -0.3 16% 14% 12.1
27.10.23 Foolad Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin 0-1 44% 52% -14.3 32% 34% -6.1 24% 24% -0.1
27.10.23 Zob Ahan vs Tractor Sazi 1-0 29% 34% -13.9 32% 35% -7.3 39% 42% -7.6
28.10.23 Gol Gohar Sirjan vs Havadar SC 3-3 47% 56% -15.7 31% 33% -5.9 22% 21% 3.7
28.10.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Mes Rafsanjan 0-1 26% 28% -4.6 33% 36% -7.5 40% 47% -13.0
29.10.23 Malavan FC vs Persepolis 0-0 17% 16% 5.6 27% 27% 0.8 56% 66% -15.7
29.10.23 Nassaji Mazandaran vs Sepahan Isfahan 1-1 15% 14% 8.2 26% 25% 3.3 59% 70% -16.0
02.11.23 Aluminium Arak vs Zob Ahan 1-1 31% 34% -7.3 36% 40% -10.3 33% 36% -8.4
02.11.23 Persepolis vs Sanat Naft Abadan 2-2 73% 85% -15.2 18% 15% 18.9 9% 7% 33.4
02.11.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Malavan FC 2-3 61% 72% -15.8 24% 23% 4.7 15% 13% 10.9
02.11.23 Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal Tehran 2-2 19% 19% -2.1 28% 29% -1.6 53% 62% -14.3
02.11.23 Tractor Sazi vs Nassaji Mazandaran 3-0 52% 61% -14.5 29% 30% -4.3 19% 19% 0.6
03.11.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Gol Gohar Sirjan 1-1 22% 22% 1.9 33% 36% -7.6 45% 53% -14.8
03.11.23 Havadar SC vs Peykan Qazvin 0-0 41% 47% -12.7 34% 37% -8.7 26% 26% -2.8
03.11.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Foolad Khuzestan 3-0 39% 44% -12.5 35% 38% -10.1 27% 28% -4.3
10.11.23 Foolad Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak 1-0 36% 41% -10.8 36% 40% -10.8 28% 29% -5.1
10.11.23 Gol Gohar Sirjan vs Mes Rafsanjan 2-0 36% 40% -9.8 33% 36% -8.0 30% 33% -8.6
10.11.23 Malavan FC vs Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-1 60% 71% -16.6 27% 27% 0.3 14% 11% 26.9
10.11.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Shams Azar Qazvin 1-1 23% 22% 3.3 32% 34% -6.0 45% 54% -16.4
11.11.23 Esteghlal Tehran vs Tractor Sazi 2-0 44% 53% -15.7 30% 31% -3.3 25% 26% -0.9
12.11.23 Nassaji Mazandaran vs Zob Ahan 1-2 32% 35% -7.8 33% 36% -8.3 35% 39% -11.9
12.11.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Persepolis 1-0 39% 47% -15.3 31% 32% -5.0 30% 32% -7.1
23.11.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Sepahan Isfahan 1-3 11% 10% 17.5 20% 17% 17.6 68% 81% -15.9
24.11.23 Aluminium Arak vs Peykan Qazvin 1-1 43% 48% -9.4 35% 40% -11.3 21% 22% -1.7
24.11.23 Havadar SC vs Malavan FC 0-1 31% 34% -11.5 35% 39% -10.1 34% 36% -5.9
24.11.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Sanat Naft Abadan 0-2 54% 65% -17.2 29% 30% -4.6 17% 15% 10.2
25.11.23 Shams Azar Qazvin vs Gol Gohar Sirjan 1-1 35% 39% -11.3 32% 34% -6.0 33% 37% -9.9
25.11.23 Tractor Sazi vs Foolad Khuzestan 2-0 45% 51% -12.6 32% 35% -7.5 23% 23% -1.6
25.11.23 Zob Ahan vs Esteghlal Tehran 1-1 26% 29% -7.9 34% 36% -7.8 40% 44% -9.6
07.12.23 Gol Gohar Sirjan vs Tractor Sazi 0-1 28% 31% -8.8 32% 33% -5.5 40% 45% -12.0
08.12.23 Malavan FC vs Shams Azar Qazvin 0-2 33% 36% -8.6 35% 38% -9.9 32% 36% -10.1
08.12.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Zob Ahan 0-0 26% 28% -5.8 35% 38% -9.4 39% 43% -10.3
08.12.23 Sanat Naft Abadan vs Aluminium Arak 1-2 32% 37% -12.3 34% 38% -9.3 33% 36% -6.8
09.12.23 Foolad Khuzestan vs Esteghlal Tehran 0-0 19% 18% 4.8 31% 32% -4.9 50% 60% -15.6
09.12.23 Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 44% 50% -11.4 32% 35% -7.7 23% 24% -4.4
09.12.23 Persepolis vs Havadar SC 1-0 64% 77% -16.6 23% 21% 9.4 13% 11% 23.9
09.12.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Mes Rafsanjan 4-1 55% 66% -15.8 27% 27% -0.1 18% 17% 3.3
13.12.23 Sanat Naft Abadan vs Gol Gohar Sirjan 0-1 27% 29% -8.3 33% 35% -7.1 40% 45% -11.1
14.12.23 Persepolis vs Esteghlal Tehran 1-1 35% 40% -12.1 34% 38% -9.0 30% 32% -5.5
14.12.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Foolad Khuzestan 3-1 61% 71% -14.6 25% 24% 3.1 15% 14% 7.9
14.12.23 Shams Azar Qazvin vs Nassaji Mazandaran 2-1 40% 44% -10.5 32% 35% -7.4 28% 30% -8.5
18.12.23 Mes Rafsanjan vs Malavan FC 1-4 37% 43% -12.4 33% 35% -7.0 30% 32% -6.8
18.12.23 Tractor Sazi vs Peykan Qazvin 2-0 58% 67% -13.9 27% 27% -1.5 16% 15% 5.4
19.12.23 Aluminium Arak vs Gol Gohar Sirjan 0-0 31% 34% -8.3 35% 38% -9.6 34% 38% -9.6
19.12.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Persepolis 2-2 11% 9% 25.5 25% 24% 3.0 64% 75% -14.9
19.12.23 Esteghlal Tehran vs Nassaji Mazandaran 4-0 65% 76% -15.2 23% 22% 5.5 12% 11% 17.1
19.12.23 Havadar SC vs Sepahan Isfahan 0-5 16% 15% 7.1 26% 26% 2.9 57% 68% -16.0
19.12.23 Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft Abadan 0-0 49% 57% -14.5 30% 32% -6.0 21% 21% -1.1
19.12.23 Zob Ahan vs Foolad Khuzestan 0-0 43% 50% -14.4 34% 37% -8.9 23% 23% 1.6
24.12.23 Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Mes Rafsanjan 2-1 30% 33% -10.2 34% 37% -8.3 36% 39% -8.0
24.12.23 Gol Gohar Sirjan vs Esteghlal Tehran 1-1 23% 24% -4.3 32% 34% -6.5 46% 53% -13.5
24.12.23 Persepolis vs Shams Azar Qazvin 2-1 59% 70% -15.7 26% 25% 2.2 15% 13% 12.9
24.12.23 Peykan Qazvin vs Foolad Khuzestan 0-0 29% 31% -6.2 35% 39% -9.8 35% 39% -9.9
24.12.23 Sepahan Isfahan vs Aluminium Arak 0-1 61% 71% -15.3 25% 24% 3.1 15% 14% 8.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 600 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Persepolis 1998.09
2 Tractor Sazi 1969.96
3 Sepahan Isfahan 1919.31
4 Esteghlal Tehran 1894.58
5 Foolad Khuzestan 1887.43
6 Peykan Qazvin 1770.78
7 Aluminium Arak 1752.12
8 Malavan FC 1750.05
9 Chador Malu Yazd 1736.78
10 Gol Gohar Sirjan 1727.51
11 Nassaji Mazandaran 1727.26
12 Kheybar Khorramabad 1705.41
13 Zob Ahan 1671.56
14 Esteghlal Khuzestan 1670.94
15 Fajr Sepasi 1667.30
16 Shams Azar Qazvin 1651.09
17 Mes Shahr Babak 1621.56
18 Sanat Naft Abadan 1563.49

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Persepolis 2010.36
2 Sepahan Isfahan 1872.93
3 Esteghlal Tehran 1861.10
4 Tractor Sazi 1787.02
5 Aluminium Arak 1767.01
6 Fajr Sepasi 1729.19
7 Gol Gohar Sirjan 1722.25
8 Malavan FC 1713.41
9 Foolad Khuzestan 1707.76
10 Chador Malu Yazd 1705.58
11 Peykan Qazvin 1697.19
12 Kheybar Khorramabad 1681.92
13 Shams Azar Qazvin 1645.62
14 Nassaji Mazandaran 1635.92
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 1632.80
16 Zob Ahan 1625.68
17 Sanat Naft Abadan 1575.66
18 Mes Shahr Babak 1545.64