ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 926
Avg Goals 2.36
Avg Home 1.25
Avg Away 1.10
Home Win % 40.7%
Draw % 28.3%
Away Win % 31.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 926
Avg Brier Score 0.5931
Pick Accuracy 51.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5938
Market Brier 0.5956
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 926 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 5.1% 78
10–20% 15.5% 14.6% 336
20–30% 26.3% 25.5% 925
30–40% 33.4% 34.6% 743
40–50% 44.5% 43.7% 309
50–60% 54.6% 53.5% 187
60–70% 64.7% 68.8% 128
70–80% 73.9% 79.6% 54
80–90% 84.2% 76.5% 17
90–100% 91.2% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
26.10.23 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Newroz FC 0-2 48% 58% -17.1 28% 31% -9.6 24% 23% 2.0
26.10.23 Baghdad SC vs Al Qasim SC 0-1 34% 39% -14.3 32% 37% -13.8 34% 36% -3.5
30.10.23 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Karbala FC 2-1 69% 76% -9.0 20% 22% -9.6 10% 12% -13.8
31.10.23 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Al Hudod Baghdad 1-1 54% 59% -8.0 27% 31% -12.9 19% 22% -14.3
02.11.23 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Al Qasim SC 1-0 50% 58% -13.5 29% 32% -11.1 21% 22% -3.4
03.11.23 Al Minaa Basra vs Al Shorta Baghdad 0-3 4% 6% -23.5 10% 12% -13.7 86% 92% -6.7
03.11.23 Al Najaf vs Naft Al-Wasat 2-0 38% 44% -13.8 32% 38% -14.3 29% 30% -3.2
03.11.23 Arbil FC vs Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 1-0 40% 44% -10.0 31% 36% -14.0 29% 32% -10.9
03.11.23 Baghdad SC vs Al Karkh Baghdad 1-1 24% 25% -5.6 28% 31% -9.9 48% 56% -13.1
09.11.23 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Arbil FC 2-1 62% 65% -3.7 23% 28% -16.1 15% 19% -23.4
09.11.23 Naft Al-Wasat vs Duhok FC 0-0 42% 48% -12.8 32% 37% -14.4 27% 29% -6.2
23.11.23 Al Minaa Basra vs Al Qasim SC 1-0 15% 18% -16.7 25% 29% -14.6 60% 64% -6.2
23.11.23 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Shorta Baghdad 2-2 37% 45% -18.4 29% 33% -11.7 33% 34% -1.2
24.11.23 Baghdad SC vs Newroz FC 0-2 22% 27% -18.1 28% 33% -15.0 50% 53% -5.3
24.11.23 Duhok FC vs Al Najaf 1-0 40% 45% -12.2 31% 36% -13.0 29% 31% -7.2
24.11.23 Naft Al Basra vs Naft Maysan 0-2 42% 47% -10.3 30% 34% -12.1 28% 32% -11.7
30.11.23 Newroz FC vs Karbala FC 3-0 39% 43% -9.8 30% 33% -11.0 31% 35% -11.3
01.12.23 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Baghdad SC 2-1 48% 55% -12.2 29% 33% -12.3 23% 24% -7.7
01.12.23 Al Talaba vs Arbil FC 1-0 45% 49% -8.3 30% 34% -13.3 25% 29% -13.7
04.12.23 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Al Karkh Baghdad 2-2 48% 52% -6.8 30% 35% -14.5 22% 26% -14.6
05.12.23 Arbil FC vs Naft Al-Wasat 1-0 46% 52% -10.5 31% 36% -14.4 23% 24% -7.7
05.12.23 Baghdad SC vs Al Shorta Baghdad 1-2 11% 14% -20.1 21% 24% -14.9 68% 72% -6.4
05.12.23 Karbala FC vs Al Naft Baghdad 0-2 44% 47% -4.3 30% 35% -14.0 26% 31% -17.0
07.12.23 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Al Qasim SC 3-3 46% 55% -15.9 30% 33% -11.1 24% 24% 1.5
08.12.23 Al Karkh Baghdad vs Karbala FC 1-2 47% 52% -8.6 29% 33% -12.6 24% 27% -13.1
08.12.23 Al Naft Baghdad vs Baghdad SC 0-1 54% 59% -7.7 25% 28% -9.8 21% 25% -17.5
08.12.23 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Zakho FC 2-0 63% 65% -4.2 23% 28% -15.9 14% 18% -22.7
08.12.23 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Duhok FC 3-0 54% 58% -7.7 28% 32% -13.8 19% 22% -14.6
09.12.23 Al Talaba vs Al Minaa Basra 0-1 72% 75% -3.2 20% 25% -21.5 8% 11% -26.5
12.12.23 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Hudod Baghdad 3-2 62% 68% -9.3 24% 28% -12.3 14% 15% -12.2
14.12.23 Baghdad SC vs Al Najaf 1-2 32% 39% -17.8 30% 35% -13.3 38% 38% -2.4
15.12.23 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Al Shorta Baghdad 0-4 16% 19% -13.9 27% 32% -15.5 56% 61% -8.2
15.12.23 Naft Al Basra vs Newroz FC 0-1 37% 43% -12.4 31% 36% -12.8 32% 34% -6.9
15.12.23 Naft Al-Wasat vs Al Talaba 0-0 19% 21% -8.8 27% 30% -11.4 54% 61% -11.7
19.12.23 Al Karkh Baghdad vs Al Hudod Baghdad 0-1 43% 45% -6.4 31% 36% -13.6 27% 31% -13.6
19.12.23 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Al Najaf 2-0 65% 70% -6.6 23% 27% -14.9 12% 15% -19.0
20.12.23 Al Qasim SC vs Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 3-3 31% 38% -18.2 31% 37% -15.2 37% 38% -1.6
20.12.23 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Duhok FC 1-0 47% 52% -8.5 28% 31% -11.2 25% 29% -15.5
20.12.23 Al Talaba vs Karbala FC 0-0 56% 58% -4.3 26% 31% -15.0 18% 23% -21.0
20.12.23 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Baghdad SC 0-0 68% 71% -5.4 22% 27% -17.2 10% 12% -19.8
21.12.23 Al Naft Baghdad vs Zakho FC 0-0 41% 45% -8.8 31% 36% -13.4 28% 31% -11.7
22.12.23 Al Minaa Basra vs Naft Al Basra 1-1 26% 31% -15.5 30% 34% -12.9 44% 47% -5.2
22.12.23 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat 3-0 72% 75% -4.0 19% 24% -19.1 9% 11% -24.8
23.12.23 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Duhok FC 0-1 37% 42% -10.9 32% 38% -14.5 31% 33% -8.2
23.12.23 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Naft Maysan 1-0 39% 40% -2.8 29% 33% -12.2 32% 39% -18.8
23.12.23 Arbil FC vs Al Zawraa Baghdad 0-1 25% 29% -14.6 32% 38% -15.9 43% 45% -5.1
23.12.23 Baghdad SC vs Karbala FC 3-1 34% 38% -11.2 32% 37% -13.9 35% 38% -8.3
24.12.23 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Talaba 1-1 59% 66% -10.8 26% 29% -10.7 16% 17% -9.1
27.12.23 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-2 21% 24% -15.8 28% 33% -14.8 51% 55% -7.1
27.12.23 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat 2-0 68% 71% -4.7 22% 27% -18.2 10% 12% -21.4
29.12.23 Karbala FC vs Al Minaa Basra 1-2 50% 51% -2.0 27% 31% -13.9 23% 29% -22.3
30.12.23 Newroz FC vs Al Karkh Baghdad 1-1 47% 53% -11.9 30% 34% -12.8 23% 24% -6.5
31.12.23 Al Najaf vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0-1 13% 17% -20.9 22% 26% -15.4 65% 68% -5.7
31.12.23 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Al Naft Baghdad 1-1 61% 65% -5.2 25% 29% -15.7 14% 17% -19.4
10.02.24 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Zakho FC 0-0 40% 42% -5.1 32% 38% -15.1 28% 33% -14.8
10.02.24 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Minaa Basra 4-2 77% 79% -3.0 15% 20% -23.4 8% 11% -31.1
11.02.24 Al Karkh Baghdad vs Naft Maysan 0-0 25% 25% -0.4 30% 34% -11.7 45% 53% -15.1
11.02.24 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Al Zawraa Baghdad 2-2 54% 59% -7.6 27% 31% -12.4 18% 21% -13.1
11.02.24 Baghdad SC vs Naft Al-Wasat 1-1 44% 49% -9.7 31% 36% -14.1 25% 29% -11.6
12.02.24 Al Naft Baghdad vs Al Najaf 2-1 41% 44% -6.7 31% 36% -13.9 27% 31% -12.9
12.02.24 Arbil FC vs Newroz FC 1-1 34% 38% -9.5 32% 37% -13.5 34% 37% -8.7
15.02.24 Karbala FC vs Al Zawraa Baghdad 1-0 12% 14% -13.6 25% 30% -16.3 62% 67% -7.2
15.02.24 Naft Al Basra vs Duhok FC 2-0 37% 44% -16.8 31% 36% -13.9 32% 32% -1.7
15.02.24 Naft Maysan vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0-4 20% 22% -8.3 29% 33% -13.6 51% 58% -11.3
16.02.24 Al Qasim SC vs Al Shorta Baghdad 2-3 14% 18% -23.8 22% 27% -16.9 64% 67% -4.7
19.02.24 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Al Najaf 0-3 44% 47% -5.1 31% 36% -14.2 25% 29% -13.6
19.02.24 Karbala FC vs Arbil FC 3-5 34% 37% -7.4 33% 38% -14.8 33% 37% -11.1
20.02.24 Al Karkh Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat 0-0 51% 56% -7.5 29% 33% -13.9 20% 23% -13.9
20.02.24 Al Qasim SC vs Newroz FC 0-1 30% 35% -15.1 31% 36% -13.9 40% 42% -6.0
20.02.24 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0-0 31% 33% -6.8 32% 37% -13.9 37% 42% -12.1
21.02.24 Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho FC 0-2 32% 36% -10.8 31% 35% -12.9 38% 42% -10.9
22.02.24 Al Najaf vs Arbil FC 1-1 38% 43% -9.6 31% 36% -13.4 30% 33% -9.9
22.02.24 Baghdad SC vs Al Talaba 0-2 26% 31% -17.6 29% 33% -13.4 45% 48% -4.7
23.02.24 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Naft Maysan 1-2 37% 40% -7.1 30% 35% -12.6 32% 38% -14.2
23.02.24 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Qasim SC 3-0 71% 75% -5.5 19% 22% -15.3 10% 13% -23.9
23.02.24 Duhok FC vs Karbala FC 2-1 52% 56% -8.3 28% 32% -13.5 21% 24% -15.6
24.02.24 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 2-1 62% 65% -5.0 25% 31% -18.1 13% 16% -20.5
29.02.24 Al Talaba vs Al Hudod Baghdad 0-1 47% 53% -9.9 28% 32% -11.8 24% 28% -13.1
29.02.24 Arbil FC vs Baghdad SC 4-1 50% 56% -10.7 28% 31% -11.1 23% 26% -11.9
29.02.24 Newroz FC vs Al Shorta Baghdad 1-1 22% 29% -21.8 27% 31% -14.7 51% 53% -3.1
01.03.24 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat 3-0 63% 66% -4.8 24% 29% -16.5 13% 17% -21.3
01.03.24 Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Al Basra 0-0 71% 76% -6.9 18% 21% -12.3 11% 14% -22.6
01.03.24 Naft Maysan vs Al Naft Baghdad 0-0 44% 44% -1.3 31% 37% -15.6 25% 30% -17.9
04.03.24 Al Hudod Baghdad vs Arbil FC 1-0 40% 43% -6.5 30% 34% -12.0 30% 36% -15.0
04.03.24 Al Naft Baghdad vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-4 12% 14% -13.6 24% 28% -14.4 64% 69% -8.0
04.03.24 Al Shorta Baghdad vs Naft Maysan 3-0 68% 72% -5.2 21% 26% -17.4 11% 14% -23.1
04.03.24 Naft Al-Wasat vs Al Qasim SC 1-1 28% 31% -10.8 31% 36% -13.0 41% 44% -7.7
05.03.24 Baghdad SC vs Al Minaa Basra 0-1 44% 48% -7.7 31% 36% -14.2 25% 29% -13.6
06.03.24 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Al Talaba 1-1 48% 50% -3.9 31% 38% -16.8 21% 24% -15.7
08.03.24 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Naft Al Basra 3-1 53% 56% -6.1 28% 32% -14.3 20% 24% -17.7
08.03.24 Al Karkh Baghdad vs Al Shorta Baghdad 1-4 12% 15% -23.8 21% 26% -17.9 67% 71% -5.2
08.03.24 Arbil FC vs Duhok FC 1-1 41% 47% -11.6 31% 36% -13.1 28% 30% -8.0
27.03.24 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad vs Baghdad SC 1-0 57% 60% -5.0 25% 29% -14.1 18% 23% -21.2
31.03.24 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Al Najaf 0-0 56% 57% -1.4 28% 35% -19.4 16% 20% -22.2
31.03.24 Baghdad SC vs Naft Maysan 1-1 26% 29% -10.5 30% 35% -13.1 43% 48% -9.3
01.04.24 Al Naft Baghdad vs Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 3-2 31% 34% -8.9 32% 37% -13.8 37% 41% -10.1
02.04.24 Al Karkh Baghdad vs Al Talaba 1-1 31% 36% -12.3 32% 38% -14.6 36% 39% -7.0
04.04.24 Al Zawraa Baghdad vs Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 1-0 50% 51% -2.2 30% 36% -16.8 20% 25% -19.4
04.04.24 Newroz FC vs Baghdad SC 3-2 61% 66% -7.8 25% 29% -14.2 14% 16% -14.5
05.04.24 Al Talaba vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-2 20% 23% -12.0 27% 30% -11.5 53% 59% -9.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 926 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

24 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Al Shorta Baghdad 2001.08
2 Al Zawraa Baghdad 1824.44
3 Al Karma 1811.33
4 Arbil FC 1809.86
5 Newroz FC 1763.16
6 Zakho FC 1735.89
7 Duhok FC 1721.84
8 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1704.95
9 Al Talaba 1695.53
10 Al Naft Baghdad 1678.97
11 Naft Maysan 1666.17
12 Al Mosul 1648.73
13 Al Minaa Basra 1645.93
14 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 1637.42
15 Al-Julan 1627.53
16 Gas Alshimal 1621.98
17 Al-Gharraf 1611.74
18 Al Karkh Baghdad 1611.60
19 Baghdad SC 1590.28
20 Diala 1590.19
21 Gaz Al Shamal 1582.09
22 Karbala FC 1550.98
23 Al Najaf 1531.00
24 Al Qasim SC 1257.13

Away Ratings

24 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Al Karma 1811.99
2 Al Shorta Baghdad 1804.37
3 Arbil FC 1766.33
4 Al Zawraa Baghdad 1748.58
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1688.85
6 Naft Maysan 1682.37
7 Duhok FC 1681.77
8 Al Talaba 1677.74
9 Al Naft Baghdad 1667.41
10 Zakho FC 1658.29
11 Newroz FC 1639.23
12 Al Minaa Basra 1598.44
13 Al Karkh Baghdad 1595.31
14 Al Mosul 1584.83
15 Al Kahrabaa Baghdad 1581.75
16 Gas Alshimal 1576.19
17 Al-Gharraf 1567.84
18 Gaz Al Shamal 1550.00
19 Diala 1543.14
20 Al-Julan 1540.11
21 Karbala FC 1509.90
22 Al Najaf 1434.60
23 Baghdad SC 1426.39
24 Al Qasim SC 1314.41