ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 385
Avg Goals 2.95
Avg Home 1.59
Avg Away 1.36
Home Win % 43.9%
Draw % 21.3%
Away Win % 34.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 385
Avg Brier Score 0.5178
Pick Accuracy 61.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5231
Market Brier 0.5169
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 50.0%
ROI (flat stake) 1200.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 385 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit 24.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 25.00 2500.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.1% 4.1% 74
10–20% 15.7% 13.5% 244
20–30% 24.1% 23.5% 378
30–40% 34.7% 30.0% 100
40–50% 44.7% 56.2% 96
50–60% 55.3% 53.5% 99
60–70% 64.8% 66.7% 81
70–80% 75.1% 76.9% 52
80–90% 83.8% 92.6% 27
90–100% 91.9% 100.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
16.09.23 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs Juventus (W) 2-3 8% 10% -16.9 13% 16% -17.7 79% 85% -6.9
16.09.23 Fiorentina (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 2-1 46% 51% -8.0 25% 29% -15.7 29% 33% -13.8
17.09.23 AC Milan (W) vs AS Roma (W) 2-4 24% 27% -12.8 22% 25% -13.2 55% 60% -9.2
17.09.23 Como Calcio (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 2-1 46% 49% -6.1 25% 29% -15.1 29% 34% -13.7
17.09.23 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 0-2 13% 13% 2.1 17% 18% -7.0 70% 79% -11.9
30.09.23 AS Roma (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 4-1 81% 88% -8.0 12% 13% -10.6 7% 8% -11.9
01.10.23 Juventus (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 4-1 85% 92% -7.6 10% 11% -10.2 5% 5% -5.8
01.10.23 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 1-1 53% 58% -9.4 24% 28% -14.9 23% 26% -11.0
01.10.23 SSD Napoli (W) vs AC Milan (W) 0-1 21% 23% -9.1 22% 25% -13.2 58% 64% -9.5
02.10.23 Inter Milan (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 1-1 57% 62% -8.4 22% 26% -15.0 21% 24% -12.9
07.10.23 AC Milan (W) vs Juventus (W) 0-1 20% 23% -12.0 21% 24% -13.3 59% 65% -9.2
07.10.23 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs AS Roma (W) 0-5 8% 8% -4.4 14% 15% -12.2 79% 86% -8.6
07.10.23 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 1-2 42% 45% -7.7 25% 29% -14.7 33% 38% -12.7
08.10.23 Fiorentina (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 2-0 63% 70% -9.7 20% 24% -14.1 16% 18% -10.0
08.10.23 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 1-2 25% 27% -6.9 24% 28% -13.9 51% 57% -10.9
14.10.23 Como Calcio (W) vs AC Milan (W) 0-0 17% 17% 3.1 20% 23% -10.5 62% 72% -13.8
14.10.23 SSD Napoli (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 0-2 40% 44% -10.0 26% 30% -15.0 34% 38% -9.3
15.10.23 AS Roma (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 2-0 66% 74% -10.9 19% 22% -11.2 15% 16% -5.1
15.10.23 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 1-4 19% 19% -0.5 22% 25% -12.6 59% 68% -12.9
15.10.23 Juventus (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 4-0 77% 85% -9.8 15% 16% -9.1 8% 8% 0.3
21.10.23 Inter Milan (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 2-0 79% 87% -9.6 14% 15% -8.5 8% 8% -1.8
21.10.23 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 1-2 52% 56% -5.9 24% 29% -16.0 24% 28% -14.6
22.10.23 AC Milan (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 4-1 78% 85% -9.3 14% 15% -10.5 9% 10% -8.8
22.10.23 Fiorentina (W) vs Juventus (W) 1-2 22% 26% -15.3 21% 25% -14.6 56% 61% -8.2
22.10.23 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs AS Roma (W) 0-5 5% 5% -2.5 10% 11% -8.5 85% 93% -8.4
04.11.23 Fiorentina (W) vs AC Milan (W) 1-0 36% 40% -10.3 24% 28% -13.3 40% 45% -11.9
05.11.23 Como Calcio (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 2-1 17% 18% -4.6 20% 23% -11.9 62% 70% -10.9
05.11.23 Juventus (W) vs AS Roma (W) 1-3 34% 37% -9.5 25% 29% -13.6 42% 47% -10.2
05.11.23 SSD Napoli (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 0-1 32% 36% -11.8 26% 30% -15.6 43% 47% -7.7
11.11.23 AC Milan (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 1-1 62% 68% -10.2 21% 24% -12.8 17% 18% -5.4
11.11.23 AS Roma (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 6-0 92% 99% -6.9 6% 5% 5.1 2% 2% 14.8
12.11.23 Como Calcio (W) vs Juventus (W) 0-3 13% 15% -11.9 18% 21% -14.9 69% 76% -8.6
12.11.23 Inter Milan (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 2-1 81% 88% -8.8 13% 14% -8.9 7% 7% -2.0
12.11.23 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 0-1 17% 17% -0.3 21% 24% -12.5 61% 69% -11.7
18.11.23 AC Milan (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 1-1 70% 76% -8.2 18% 21% -14.8 12% 14% -12.6
18.11.23 Fiorentina (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 3-0 64% 70% -9.7 20% 23% -13.3 16% 18% -10.0
19.11.23 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 2-1 42% 48% -12.2 26% 31% -15.5 32% 33% -4.6
19.11.23 Juventus (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 5-0 58% 67% -13.4 22% 24% -10.9 21% 21% -1.5
19.11.23 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs AS Roma (W) 0-2 6% 6% 4.0 11% 11% -5.2 83% 92% -9.5
25.11.23 Como Calcio (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 0-0 57% 63% -10.2 23% 27% -14.6 20% 22% -7.6
25.11.23 Inter Milan (W) vs AC Milan (W) 1-0 48% 53% -9.7 25% 29% -14.0 28% 31% -9.3
26.11.23 AS Roma (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 2-1 76% 83% -8.3 14% 16% -10.6 9% 10% -9.5
26.11.23 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 0-4 30% 31% -3.5 26% 31% -15.8 44% 50% -13.0
26.11.23 SSD Napoli (W) vs Juventus (W) 1-3 3% 2% 5.4 6% 7% -6.9 91% 98% -7.2
09.12.23 Inter Milan (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 1-1 76% 84% -9.1 15% 17% -11.7 9% 10% -7.2
09.12.23 Juventus (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 4-0 91% 97% -6.5 6% 6% -5.6 3% 4% -13.9
10.12.23 AS Roma (W) vs AC Milan (W) 2-1 74% 82% -9.2 15% 17% -11.4 10% 11% -8.7
10.12.23 SSD Napoli (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 0-0 26% 28% -5.7 26% 30% -15.6 48% 54% -10.8
11.12.23 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 1-2 27% 29% -6.1 26% 31% -16.0 47% 53% -11.0
16.12.23 AC Milan (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 1-1 77% 83% -8.0 14% 17% -13.2 9% 10% -11.6
16.12.23 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs Juventus (W) 1-0 4% 4% 13.4 9% 10% -3.4 86% 94% -8.4
17.12.23 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 0-2 21% 21% -0.5 23% 27% -13.9 56% 65% -13.2
17.12.23 Como Calcio (W) vs AS Roma (W) 2-3 7% 7% -9.6 12% 14% -14.2 81% 88% -7.6
18.12.23 Fiorentina (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 4-2 40% 47% -13.5 26% 30% -15.3 34% 36% -6.2
13.01.24 AS Roma (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 3-0 94% 99% -5.4 5% 6% -14.1 2% 2% -11.0
13.01.24 Juventus (W) vs AC Milan (W) 2-1 69% 75% -8.4 18% 21% -13.6 13% 15% -11.5
13.01.24 SSD Napoli (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 2-4 14% 15% -6.0 18% 21% -12.5 68% 75% -10.0
14.01.24 Como Calcio (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 0-1 39% 40% -3.7 26% 30% -15.3 36% 42% -15.1
14.01.24 Inter Milan (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 0-1 57% 62% -7.9 22% 26% -14.1 21% 24% -12.7
20.01.24 Inter Milan (W) vs AS Roma (W) 2-0 13% 13% -1.6 18% 21% -11.9 69% 77% -10.9
20.01.24 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 0-0 47% 49% -3.2 27% 32% -17.8 26% 31% -14.7
21.01.24 Fiorentina (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 3-1 83% 91% -8.7 10% 11% -3.2 7% 7% -5.0
21.01.24 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Juventus (W) 0-1 13% 13% -1.0 18% 21% -11.7 68% 77% -11.1
22.01.24 AC Milan (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 3-2 66% 74% -10.6 19% 22% -11.7 15% 15% -5.3
27.01.24 AS Roma (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 2-0 88% 94% -6.8 8% 10% -13.2 4% 4% -12.6
27.01.24 SSD Napoli (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 2-3 15% 15% -0.6 21% 24% -13.2 64% 72% -11.0
28.01.24 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs AC Milan (W) 0-0 14% 15% -7.5 19% 22% -14.5 67% 75% -9.8
28.01.24 Como Calcio (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 0-1 29% 30% -4.9 27% 32% -16.7 44% 50% -11.4
29.01.24 Juventus (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 2-2 64% 71% -10.4 20% 23% -12.4 16% 17% -6.6
03.02.24 AC Milan (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 2-2 33% 36% -8.2 25% 29% -14.3 41% 47% -10.9
03.02.24 Inter Milan (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 2-3 72% 81% -10.9 17% 18% -8.7 12% 12% -1.7
03.02.24 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 2-0 61% 65% -7.0 23% 28% -17.3 16% 18% -10.5
04.02.24 AS Roma (W) vs Juventus (W) 3-1 45% 49% -8.2 25% 29% -14.6 30% 34% -11.2
10.02.24 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs AC Milan (W) 1-0 26% 28% -7.4 26% 31% -16.2 48% 53% -9.3
10.02.24 SSD Napoli (W) vs AS Roma (W) 0-1 4% 4% -4.1 8% 8% -8.7 89% 96% -7.8
11.02.24 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 2-6 12% 12% -3.7 18% 21% -13.8 70% 78% -9.9
11.02.24 Fiorentina (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 2-1 71% 78% -9.0 17% 20% -14.2 12% 13% -11.9
11.02.24 Juventus (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 5-0 83% 90% -8.3 11% 12% -10.4 6% 7% -12.4
13.02.24 AS Roma (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 3-0 78% 85% -7.6 14% 16% -14.1 8% 9% -12.6
14.02.24 Como Calcio (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 0-1 16% 16% -2.6 21% 24% -13.6 64% 72% -11.3
14.02.24 Inter Milan (W) vs Juventus (W) 0-2 23% 24% -4.7 23% 27% -13.5 53% 61% -11.9
14.02.24 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs AC Milan (W) 1-3 21% 23% -7.7 24% 29% -16.8 55% 60% -9.4
15.02.24 SSD Napoli (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 2-0 49% 53% -8.9 26% 31% -16.1 25% 28% -8.4
17.02.24 Fiorentina (W) vs AS Roma (W) 0-1 16% 15% 7.3 20% 22% -9.7 64% 74% -13.5
17.02.24 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 2-0 57% 64% -9.8 24% 29% -16.4 19% 20% -6.8
18.02.24 AC Milan (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 2-1 38% 43% -9.6 25% 29% -13.3 37% 41% -9.9
18.02.24 ASD Pomigliano (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 3-4 31% 33% -8.3 27% 32% -16.5 43% 47% -8.6
18.02.24 Juventus (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 4-1 88% 95% -7.6 8% 9% -10.8 4% 4% -10.5
16.03.24 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 1-0 25% 26% -4.0 25% 29% -15.4 51% 58% -12.6
17.03.24 Como Calcio (W) vs SSD Napoli (W) 1-1 43% 45% -5.6 28% 34% -18.1 29% 32% -10.5
17.03.24 Inter Milan (W) vs Juventus (W) 3-3 22% 24% -5.8 23% 27% -14.0 54% 61% -11.5
23.03.24 AS Roma (W) vs Sassuolo Calcio (W) 3-0 80% 87% -7.8 13% 15% -14.7 7% 7% -10.1
23.03.24 Sampdoria Genoa (W) vs Como Calcio (W) 1-0 43% 47% -6.5 27% 32% -16.0 29% 32% -8.8
24.03.24 AC Milan (W) vs ASD Pomigliano (W) 4-0 80% 89% -9.9 12% 12% -2.7 8% 8% -2.5
24.03.24 Fiorentina (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 0-3 46% 51% -9.2 25% 29% -14.7 29% 32% -9.9
29.03.24 Inter Milan (W) vs AS Roma (W) 1-2 17% 17% -4.3 19% 21% -9.8 65% 74% -12.2
30.03.24 Como Calcio (W) vs AC Milan (W) 1-4 19% 21% -7.2 23% 27% -15.1 58% 65% -10.1
30.03.24 Juventus (W) vs Fiorentina (W) 4-0 62% 68% -9.6 21% 24% -12.9 17% 19% -8.8
30.03.24 SSD Napoli (W) vs Sampdoria Genoa (W) 2-0 39% 43% -8.6 27% 32% -16.0 34% 37% -8.2
13.04.24 Sassuolo Calcio (W) vs Inter Milan (W) 2-1 31% 34% -8.8 26% 30% -15.2 43% 48% -10.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 385 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Juventus (W) 1992.98
2 Inter Milan (W) 1892.30
3 AS Roma (W) 1855.50
4 Fiorentina (W) 1765.91
5 AC Milan (W) 1741.90
6 Sassuolo Calcio (W) 1715.52
7 Como 1907 (W) 1696.45
8 Lazio Roma (W) 1692.43
9 SSD Napoli (W) 1675.72
10 Como Calcio (W) 1640.57
11 Parma Calcio (W) 1619.23
12 Ternana Calcio (W) 1545.64

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AS Roma (W) 1922.45
2 Juventus (W) 1886.73
3 Inter Milan (W) 1851.21
4 Como 1907 (W) 1778.41
5 Fiorentina (W) 1756.46
6 SSD Napoli (W) 1722.61
7 Lazio Roma (W) 1672.73
8 Como Calcio (W) 1640.45
9 AC Milan (W) 1602.69
10 Parma Calcio (W) 1596.39
11 Ternana Calcio (W) 1520.39
12 Sassuolo Calcio (W) 1425.97