ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 974
Avg Goals 2.51
Avg Home 1.40
Avg Away 1.11
Home Win % 40.8%
Draw % 33.5%
Away Win % 25.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 974
Avg Brier Score 0.6286
Pick Accuracy 43.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6336
Market Brier 0.6316
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) -35.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 974 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit -1.05 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 3 33.3% 3.00 -1.05 -35.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.8% 12.5% 8
10–20% 16.2% 17.8% 258
20–30% 25.7% 23.6% 830
30–40% 33.6% 35.1% 1182
40–50% 44.4% 43.4% 385
50–60% 54.4% 50.6% 174
60–70% 63.3% 68.9% 74
70–80% 74.8% 90.0% 10
80–90% 80.3% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.08.23 SSC Bari vs US Palermo 0-0 37% 40% -8.6 33% 32% 2.1 31% 35% -13.0
19.08.23 Ternana Calcio vs Sampdoria Genoa 1-2 30% 34% -10.8 32% 31% 3.8 37% 43% -12.3
19.08.23 US Cremonese vs FC Catanzaro 0-0 47% 51% -8.2 30% 29% 2.2 23% 27% -15.3
20.08.23 AS Cittadella vs AC Reggiana 1-0 52% 51% 2.5 29% 31% -8.5 20% 26% -25.4
20.08.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Spezia Calcio 3-3 24% 29% -17.6 33% 33% -0.0 42% 44% -4.5
25.08.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs Pisa Calcio 0-2 45% 49% -8.5 32% 32% -0.2 23% 27% -13.1
26.08.23 AC Feralpisalo vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 0-2 35% 41% -14.3 35% 34% 0.2 30% 32% -5.5
26.08.23 Como Calcio vs AC Reggiana 2-2 48% 47% 3.0 29% 31% -5.2 23% 30% -24.4
26.08.23 Modena FC vs Ascoli Picchio 1-0 53% 55% -3.7 29% 29% -2.8 19% 23% -19.9
26.08.23 US Cremonese vs SSC Bari 0-1 51% 51% -1.5 29% 31% -4.5 20% 26% -21.6
27.08.23 FC Catanzaro vs Ternana Calcio 2-1 41% 43% -5.2 32% 31% 1.6 27% 32% -16.1
29.08.23 AC Reggiana vs US Palermo 1-3 31% 34% -10.8 32% 31% 4.0 37% 42% -11.8
29.08.23 Cosenza Calcio vs Modena FC 1-2 33% 38% -15.2 33% 32% 2.5 34% 37% -7.4
30.08.23 FC Catanzaro vs Spezia Calcio 3-0 30% 36% -17.7 32% 30% 4.5 38% 41% -5.9
30.08.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs SSC Venezia 1-2 40% 43% -4.9 31% 31% 2.0 28% 34% -17.1
30.08.23 SSC Bari vs AS Cittadella 1-1 37% 40% -6.9 34% 34% -1.1 29% 33% -14.0
02.09.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Ascoli Picchio 3-1 42% 44% -5.3 34% 35% -3.6 24% 29% -15.8
02.09.23 Modena FC vs Pisa Calcio 2-0 38% 43% -11.3 33% 32% 2.5 29% 32% -9.5
02.09.23 Parma Calcio vs AC Reggiana 0-0 55% 53% 3.6 26% 29% -10.2 18% 25% -27.3
02.09.23 US Palermo vs AC Feralpisalo 3-0 61% 63% -3.0 25% 27% -5.9 14% 17% -22.3
03.09.23 Calcio Lecco vs FC Catanzaro 3-4 21% 29% -25.3 30% 31% -3.0 48% 48% 1.5
03.09.23 Spezia Calcio vs Como Calcio 0-1 54% 53% 0.1 28% 29% -6.3 19% 25% -24.4
03.09.23 Ternana Calcio vs SSC Bari 0-0 41% 42% -3.0 33% 33% -2.0 26% 32% -18.2
03.09.23 US Cremonese vs Sampdoria Genoa 1-1 48% 51% -4.9 30% 30% -0.2 22% 26% -17.4
15.09.23 SSC Venezia vs Spezia Calcio 1-0 41% 45% -10.6 31% 29% 5.4 28% 32% -12.2
16.09.23 AC Feralpisalo vs Modena FC 1-1 27% 32% -15.2 33% 32% 2.4 40% 43% -6.9
16.09.23 AC Reggiana vs US Cremonese 2-2 30% 34% -14.3 33% 32% 2.0 38% 42% -9.9
16.09.23 Ascoli Picchio vs US Palermo 0-1 28% 32% -14.4 33% 32% 2.1 39% 43% -9.2
16.09.23 Cosenza Calcio vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 2-2 39% 43% -9.3 34% 35% -1.3 26% 29% -10.9
16.09.23 Pisa Calcio vs SSC Bari 1-1 45% 47% -4.0 32% 32% -0.8 23% 28% -16.0
17.09.23 FC Catanzaro vs Parma Calcio 0-5 35% 44% -20.5 32% 31% 3.5 33% 33% -1.6
18.09.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs AS Cittadella 1-2 42% 45% -6.7 32% 32% -0.8 26% 31% -16.8
22.09.23 US Palermo vs Cosenza Calcio 0-1 57% 59% -3.7 27% 28% -3.2 16% 21% -20.9
23.09.23 Modena FC vs Calcio Lecco 0-0 66% 65% 2.1 22% 26% -14.9 12% 17% -29.3
23.09.23 Spezia Calcio vs AC Reggiana 1-2 56% 56% -0.0 27% 29% -6.7 17% 22% -24.1
23.09.23 Ternana Calcio vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 1-1 44% 45% -4.2 32% 32% -0.8 24% 29% -16.8
24.09.23 Parma Calcio vs Sampdoria Genoa 1-1 49% 51% -5.2 30% 30% -1.2 21% 26% -18.4
24.09.23 SSC Bari vs FC Catanzaro 2-2 38% 43% -11.6 33% 32% 1.8 29% 32% -11.0
26.09.23 AC Reggiana vs Pisa Calcio 0-0 38% 42% -9.5 33% 33% 0.4 28% 32% -12.2
26.09.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Modena FC 0-0 33% 36% -8.3 35% 35% 0.0 32% 36% -11.0
26.09.23 Spezia Calcio vs Union Brescia 0-0 57% 56% 0.3 27% 29% -7.2 17% 22% -24.4
26.09.23 SSC Venezia vs US Palermo 1-3 38% 41% -6.9 32% 31% 2.3 30% 36% -15.9
27.09.23 Como Calcio vs Sampdoria Genoa 1-0 40% 43% -8.8 32% 31% 2.1 28% 33% -14.7
27.09.23 FC Catanzaro vs AS Cittadella 1-1 38% 43% -12.2 33% 32% 2.7 29% 31% -8.1
27.09.23 Parma Calcio vs SSC Bari 2-1 53% 52% 2.1 28% 31% -8.0 19% 25% -24.8
30.09.23 AC Feralpisalo vs Spezia Calcio 1-2 23% 29% -21.3 32% 32% -0.9 45% 47% -3.5
30.09.23 Modena FC vs SSC Venezia 1-3 39% 43% -7.8 32% 31% 2.2 29% 34% -15.0
30.09.23 Ternana Calcio vs AC Reggiana 3-0 42% 47% -8.9 32% 31% 2.4 26% 30% -13.8
01.10.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs FC Catanzaro 1-2 42% 47% -9.3 31% 31% 2.2 26% 31% -14.3
01.10.23 SSC Bari vs Como Calcio 1-1 40% 43% -6.3 34% 34% -1.5 26% 30% -13.7
01.10.23 US Palermo vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 2-1 57% 58% -2.2 27% 29% -6.9 16% 21% -22.8
07.10.23 AC Reggiana vs SSC Bari 1-1 34% 37% -7.5 34% 33% 0.5 32% 38% -14.6
07.10.23 Ascoli Picchio vs Sampdoria Genoa 1-1 35% 39% -11.0 32% 31% 3.7 33% 37% -11.7
07.10.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs FC Catanzaro 0-1 32% 37% -14.7 33% 32% 2.9 35% 38% -6.7
07.10.23 Modena FC vs US Palermo 0-2 35% 38% -9.8 33% 32% 2.2 32% 37% -12.7
08.10.23 Spezia Calcio vs Pisa Calcio 0-0 49% 51% -4.0 30% 31% -2.8 20% 25% -18.6
21.10.23 FC Catanzaro vs AC Feralpisalo 3-0 59% 61% -3.0 26% 27% -3.8 16% 20% -22.1
21.10.23 SSC Bari vs Modena FC 1-1 40% 42% -5.1 33% 33% -0.5 27% 32% -15.4
21.10.23 US Cremonese vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 0-1 60% 61% -1.4 25% 28% -9.0 14% 19% -25.1
22.10.23 AC Reggiana vs SSC Venezia 1-0 30% 34% -11.6 32% 31% 3.6 37% 42% -12.0
22.10.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs Cosenza Calcio 2-0 47% 48% -0.9 30% 30% -2.1 23% 29% -21.4
23.10.23 US Palermo vs Spezia Calcio 2-2 47% 51% -6.5 30% 30% 0.1 22% 27% -17.0
24.10.23 Union Brescia vs Modena FC 0-1 33% 37% -11.2 34% 33% 1.5 33% 37% -10.2
28.10.23 AC Feralpisalo vs AC Reggiana 0-3 34% 38% -11.4 34% 33% 0.9 32% 36% -11.2
28.10.23 Como Calcio vs FC Catanzaro 1-0 40% 44% -10.6 32% 31% 1.8 28% 33% -14.6
28.10.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Sampdoria Genoa 3-1 34% 38% -10.3 34% 33% 0.9 33% 37% -12.2
28.10.23 Spezia Calcio vs Cosenza Calcio 0-0 51% 51% -0.5 28% 29% -3.6 21% 27% -22.6
29.10.23 Modena FC vs Ternana Calcio 2-1 50% 53% -5.6 29% 29% -0.1 20% 24% -17.3
29.10.23 Union Brescia vs SSC Bari 1-2 36% 40% -8.9 35% 35% -0.8 29% 32% -10.8
29.10.23 US Palermo vs Calcio Lecco 1-2 73% 74% -0.7 18% 20% -12.3 9% 13% -28.9
04.11.23 FC Catanzaro vs Modena FC 1-2 40% 44% -9.3 31% 29% 5.1 29% 33% -13.7
04.11.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs US Palermo 1-0 31% 35% -13.0 32% 31% 4.5 37% 42% -10.4
04.11.23 SSC Bari vs Ascoli Picchio 1-0 48% 50% -4.9 31% 31% -1.5 22% 26% -17.6
05.11.23 AC Reggiana vs Calcio Lecco 1-1 59% 58% 1.2 25% 27% -8.3 16% 22% -26.2
05.11.23 Parma Calcio vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 2-0 61% 60% 2.7 25% 28% -10.8 14% 19% -26.1
05.11.23 US Cremonese vs Spezia Calcio 3-0 49% 51% -4.5 29% 29% 0.2 22% 26% -18.2
08.11.23 Calcio Lecco vs Spezia Calcio 0-0 23% 29% -20.8 30% 29% 3.8 48% 50% -4.6
08.11.23 US Palermo vs Union Brescia 1-0 60% 62% -2.9 25% 27% -5.9 15% 19% -23.4
10.11.23 SSC Venezia vs FC Catanzaro 2-1 47% 51% -6.2 29% 29% 2.2 23% 29% -18.1
11.11.23 AC Feralpisalo vs SSC Bari 3-3 27% 31% -15.0 33% 32% 2.4 40% 43% -7.0
11.11.23 Cosenza Calcio vs AC Reggiana 2-0 41% 43% -5.9 32% 32% -0.1 27% 32% -16.6
11.11.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Pisa Calcio 1-2 31% 35% -9.9 35% 35% -0.1 34% 38% -10.4
11.11.23 Modena FC vs Sampdoria Genoa 0-2 44% 45% -4.1 32% 32% -0.9 24% 29% -16.9
12.11.23 Spezia Calcio vs Ternana Calcio 2-2 49% 51% -3.9 30% 30% -1.5 21% 26% -18.7
12.11.23 US Palermo vs AS Cittadella 0-1 54% 56% -2.2 28% 29% -5.5 18% 23% -22.7
24.11.23 Sampdoria Genoa vs Spezia Calcio 2-1 42% 45% -7.0 32% 31% 1.8 26% 30% -14.4
25.11.23 AC Reggiana vs Ascoli Picchio 1-1 41% 43% -2.7 33% 34% -2.3 25% 31% -17.2
25.11.23 AS Cittadella vs FC Südtirol Bolzano 2-1 48% 49% -1.2 32% 34% -6.2 20% 25% -19.9
25.11.23 Parma Calcio vs Modena FC 1-1 47% 49% -2.9 31% 31% -1.9 22% 27% -18.8
25.11.23 SSC Bari vs SSC Venezia 0-3 39% 42% -7.5 33% 33% 0.3 28% 32% -13.1
26.11.23 FC Catanzaro vs Cosenza Calcio 2-0 44% 48% -6.6 31% 31% 0.8 25% 29% -16.6
26.11.23 Ternana Calcio vs US Palermo 1-1 27% 32% -17.2 32% 31% 3.5 41% 44% -6.7
28.11.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Union Brescia 1-1 36% 39% -7.3 35% 36% -2.4 29% 33% -13.7
01.12.23 US Palermo vs FC Catanzaro 1-2 49% 50% -2.3 29% 29% -1.1 22% 28% -20.6
02.12.23 Modena FC vs AC Reggiana 2-1 46% 47% -1.2 31% 31% -2.1 23% 29% -20.2
02.12.23 Spezia Calcio vs Parma Calcio 0-1 37% 42% -12.1 32% 31% 4.2 31% 35% -10.8
03.12.23 Calcio Lecco vs SSC Bari 1-0 31% 37% -16.8 33% 32% 2.3 36% 38% -5.9
03.12.23 FC Südtirol Bolzano vs Como Calcio 0-1 26% 29% -11.6 35% 36% -1.2 39% 43% -9.0
03.12.23 Union Brescia vs Sampdoria Genoa 3-1 32% 36% -11.4 34% 33% 1.1 34% 38% -11.3
09.12.23 Ascoli Picchio vs Spezia Calcio 1-2 31% 37% -15.6 34% 33% 1.0 35% 38% -7.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 974 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 US Palermo 2064.47
2 Modena FC 2049.79
3 Pisa Calcio 2020.54
4 Benevento Calcio 2000.84
5 Hellas Verona 1998.43
6 Sampdoria Genoa 1960.43
7 AC Mantova 1954.77
8 Virtus Entella 1937.47
9 US Cremonese 1901.50
10 Juve Stabia 1900.98
11 Ascoli Picchio 1898.60
12 Calcio Padova 1891.49
13 US Avellino 1886.24
14 Vicenza Virtus 1868.39
15 FC Südtirol Bolzano 1867.07
16 Carrarese Calcio 1865.37
17 Empoli FC 1846.13
18 FC Catanzaro 1843.02
19 Cesena FC 1840.48
20 AC Arezzo 1808.88

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 US Palermo 1985.67
2 Modena FC 1964.97
3 Hellas Verona 1935.16
4 Pisa Calcio 1927.31
5 AC Mantova 1906.18
6 Virtus Entella 1900.86
7 US Cremonese 1896.90
8 Benevento Calcio 1887.86
9 Ascoli Picchio 1876.53
10 Juve Stabia 1859.77
11 Vicenza Virtus 1858.76
12 US Avellino 1849.57
13 Calcio Padova 1825.45
14 Sampdoria Genoa 1825.43
15 Cesena FC 1816.11
16 Carrarese Calcio 1804.29
17 FC Südtirol Bolzano 1798.57
18 FC Catanzaro 1783.22
19 AC Arezzo 1782.66
20 Empoli FC 1741.51