ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 440
Avg Goals 1.95
Avg Home 1.02
Avg Away 0.93
Home Win % 35.0%
Draw % 32.7%
Away Win % 32.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 440
Avg Brier Score 0.6472
Pick Accuracy 41.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6499
Market Brier 0.6478
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 6 of 440 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit -6.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 4 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 16.9% 17.9% 56
20–30% 26.3% 24.4% 357
30–40% 33.5% 33.9% 667
40–50% 44.6% 47.0% 181
50–60% 54.1% 56.0% 50
60–70% 63.2% 44.4% 9
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
09.10.23 Bidco United vs Bandari FC 2-0 34% 38% -10.2 31% 34% -8.3 35% 39% -10.7
01.11.23 AFC Leopards vs Kariobangi Sharks 0-0 39% 41% -6.9 32% 36% -9.3 29% 33% -12.2
01.11.23 Bandari FC vs Kenya Police FC 3-2 37% 40% -8.8 32% 35% -8.7 31% 35% -10.4
01.11.23 Bidco United vs Muhoroni Youth 3-0 45% 51% -11.2 32% 35% -8.9 23% 24% -5.9
01.11.23 Kenya Commercial Bank vs Sofapaka FC 0-3 49% 56% -13.4 30% 31% -5.7 21% 22% -3.7
01.11.23 Shabana FC vs Gor Mahia 0-1 21% 23% -8.2 29% 32% -9.9 50% 55% -9.2
01.11.23 Tusker FC vs Ulinzi Stars 0-1 47% 53% -11.9 31% 33% -7.1 23% 24% -6.2
02.11.23 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Posta Rangers 1-1 41% 46% -9.3 32% 35% -9.0 26% 29% -9.6
04.11.23 Nairobi City Stars vs AFC Leopards 3-2 36% 41% -11.7 31% 34% -7.8 33% 36% -7.9
04.11.23 Nzoia Sugar FC vs Kariobangi Sharks 1-0 34% 37% -7.4 32% 34% -8.2 35% 39% -11.9
04.11.23 Sofapaka FC vs FC Talanta 0-3 37% 41% -9.8 31% 34% -8.0 32% 35% -10.0
05.11.23 Bandari FC vs Shabana FC 2-1 47% 53% -10.4 30% 32% -7.0 23% 25% -9.8
05.11.23 Gor Mahia vs Kenya Police FC 0-0 46% 53% -13.8 30% 31% -5.3 24% 26% -4.7
05.11.23 Muhoroni Youth vs Kakamega Homeboyz FC 0-2 33% 36% -9.9 31% 34% -8.5 36% 40% -9.4
05.11.23 Muranga Seal vs Tusker FC 2-1 30% 34% -11.0 31% 34% -9.0 39% 42% -8.0
05.11.23 Posta Rangers vs Kenya Commercial Bank 0-0 31% 34% -6.8 31% 34% -8.1 37% 43% -12.2
05.11.23 Ulinzi Stars vs Bidco United 0-1 42% 47% -10.1 31% 34% -7.8 27% 30% -9.7
10.11.23 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Sofapaka FC 5-0 52% 61% -15.1 29% 30% -4.2 19% 19% 1.9
10.11.23 Kenya Police FC vs Ulinzi Stars 2-0 42% 48% -11.8 32% 34% -8.2 26% 28% -6.2
11.11.23 AFC Leopards vs Posta Rangers 1-1 34% 37% -6.2 32% 35% -8.8 33% 38% -12.4
11.11.23 Gor Mahia vs Muranga Seal 0-0 45% 52% -13.3 31% 34% -7.8 23% 24% -2.6
11.11.23 Kariobangi Sharks vs Bandari FC 0-2 37% 40% -6.1 33% 36% -9.3 30% 34% -12.8
11.11.23 Kenya Commercial Bank vs Bidco United 3-0 44% 49% -10.6 31% 33% -6.8 26% 29% -9.7
11.11.23 Shabana FC vs Nzoia Sugar FC 2-1 36% 41% -12.2 32% 35% -9.2 32% 33% -5.8
11.11.23 Tusker FC vs Nairobi City Stars 3-1 46% 52% -10.8 31% 33% -7.4 23% 25% -8.4
25.11.23 Bandari FC vs FC Talanta 1-1 44% 51% -12.9 30% 32% -5.8 26% 28% -6.4
25.11.23 Nairobi City Stars vs Kariobangi Sharks 3-1 36% 40% -9.5 28% 29% -3.2 35% 41% -13.4
25.11.23 Posta Rangers vs Shabana FC 3-1 50% 57% -12.7 29% 31% -5.3 21% 22% -5.2
25.11.23 Sofapaka FC vs AFC Leopards 1-1 35% 39% -9.7 32% 35% -8.9 33% 36% -9.1
26.11.23 Muhoroni Youth vs Gor Mahia 0-2 18% 17% 5.4 29% 32% -8.6 53% 61% -13.7
26.11.23 Muranga Seal vs Kenya Commercial Bank 1-2 31% 34% -7.1 31% 34% -8.0 37% 42% -11.9
26.11.23 Nzoia Sugar FC vs Kenya Police FC 1-3 27% 29% -6.9 29% 31% -6.0 44% 51% -12.7
26.11.23 Ulinzi Stars vs Kakamega Homeboyz FC 0-1 34% 37% -8.0 33% 36% -9.6 33% 37% -10.2
02.12.23 FC Talanta vs Ulinzi Stars 0-3 40% 46% -13.0 28% 29% -3.0 32% 35% -9.5
02.12.23 Posta Rangers vs Nairobi City Stars 0-1 50% 59% -15.0 27% 27% -0.0 23% 25% -5.4
02.12.23 Shabana FC vs Kenya Commercial Bank 1-1 27% 29% -7.6 28% 29% -4.4 45% 52% -12.5
03.12.23 Bandari FC vs Muhoroni Youth 1-0 59% 69% -15.5 26% 26% 0.3 16% 15% 2.3
03.12.23 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Bidco United 1-0 41% 45% -10.1 29% 31% -5.1 30% 34% -12.0
03.12.23 Kariobangi Sharks vs Gor Mahia 1-2 33% 36% -7.8 29% 31% -5.0 37% 43% -13.5
03.12.23 Kenya Police FC vs Muranga Seal 2-0 40% 44% -9.7 30% 31% -5.3 30% 35% -12.3
03.12.23 Nzoia Sugar FC vs Sofapaka FC 1-3 47% 56% -15.8 28% 29% -2.5 25% 26% -2.6
04.12.23 AFC Leopards vs Tusker FC 0-0 34% 37% -8.7 31% 34% -7.7 35% 39% -11.1
09.12.23 Gor Mahia vs Nzoia Sugar FC 2-2 52% 60% -13.3 28% 29% -3.6 20% 21% -4.4
09.12.23 Kenya Commercial Bank vs FC Talanta 0-0 44% 51% -11.9 30% 32% -5.9 26% 28% -8.1
09.12.23 Muranga Seal vs Ulinzi Stars 1-1 39% 43% -9.6 32% 34% -8.2 29% 32% -10.0
09.12.23 Nairobi City Stars vs Bandari FC 1-0 35% 40% -11.0 30% 32% -6.5 35% 38% -9.6
10.12.23 Bidco United vs AFC Leopards 2-1 35% 38% -7.5 32% 35% -8.3 33% 38% -11.6
10.12.23 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Shabana FC 2-0 48% 54% -12.1 30% 31% -5.5 23% 24% -7.0
10.12.23 Muhoroni Youth vs Kenya Police FC 1-1 33% 38% -12.3 32% 35% -9.3 35% 38% -6.0
10.12.23 Sofapaka FC vs Kariobangi Sharks 2-1 35% 40% -11.9 31% 34% -8.2 34% 36% -7.3
10.12.23 Tusker FC vs Posta Rangers 0-0 48% 56% -13.4 30% 32% -6.5 21% 22% -2.0
13.12.23 Bidco United vs Tusker FC 2-3 35% 39% -10.2 31% 33% -7.2 34% 38% -10.0
16.12.23 Bandari FC vs Muranga Seal 2-0 44% 51% -12.8 32% 34% -8.1 24% 25% -3.8
16.12.23 Kenya Police FC vs Kenya Commercial Bank 1-2 36% 40% -9.5 30% 32% -5.9 34% 38% -11.3
16.12.23 Shabana FC vs Sofapaka FC 4-1 39% 45% -12.9 30% 33% -6.8 30% 33% -6.7
17.12.23 AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz FC 2-0 37% 40% -8.0 32% 36% -9.1 31% 35% -10.8
17.12.23 FC Talanta vs Gor Mahia 0-2 30% 31% -5.9 32% 35% -8.8 39% 44% -11.7
17.12.23 Kariobangi Sharks vs Bidco United 0-0 39% 43% -9.9 30% 32% -6.4 31% 35% -11.1
17.12.23 Nzoia Sugar FC vs Tusker FC 0-2 29% 32% -9.2 31% 35% -9.3 39% 43% -9.0
17.12.23 Posta Rangers vs Muhoroni Youth 0-0 64% 78% -17.7 24% 23% 4.3 12% 10% 26.8
17.12.23 Ulinzi Stars vs Nairobi City Stars 1-2 46% 52% -13.0 29% 31% -4.9 25% 27% -6.6
20.12.23 Muhoroni Youth vs Sofapaka FC 1-0 39% 46% -16.0 30% 32% -6.2 31% 32% -2.5
20.12.23 Muranga Seal vs AFC Leopards 1-1 45% 53% -14.3 30% 31% -5.4 25% 26% -3.4
20.12.23 Tusker FC vs Kenya Police FC 1-0 43% 50% -12.3 30% 32% -5.9 27% 29% -7.7
21.12.23 Bidco United vs Shabana FC 1-0 45% 50% -10.5 31% 33% -7.5 24% 27% -9.3
21.12.23 FC Talanta vs Kariobangi Sharks 0-3 44% 51% -14.2 30% 31% -5.4 27% 28% -4.5
21.12.23 Kenya Commercial Bank vs Nzoia Sugar FC 0-1 58% 68% -15.7 26% 27% -0.8 16% 15% 4.9
21.12.23 Ulinzi Stars vs Posta Rangers 0-2 35% 39% -9.7 32% 36% -9.3 32% 36% -8.7
22.12.23 Gor Mahia vs Bandari FC 1-0 44% 51% -12.0 32% 35% -8.4 24% 25% -5.1
22.12.23 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Nairobi City Stars 0-1 52% 61% -14.6 29% 30% -4.0 20% 20% -0.6
06.01.24 Bandari FC vs Nzoia Sugar FC 1-0 58% 69% -16.6 26% 26% -0.3 16% 14% 10.2
06.01.24 Kenya Police FC vs Kakamega Homeboyz FC 3-0 43% 49% -12.3 32% 35% -8.4 25% 27% -4.8
06.01.24 Posta Rangers vs Gor Mahia 0-1 24% 24% 1.8 31% 34% -8.7 44% 52% -14.6
06.01.24 Shabana FC vs Muhoroni Youth 0-1 44% 50% -12.9 31% 33% -7.3 25% 26% -4.6
07.01.24 AFC Leopards vs Ulinzi Stars 1-0 41% 46% -11.3 32% 35% -8.6 27% 29% -6.5
07.01.24 Kariobangi Sharks vs Muranga Seal 1-1 43% 50% -13.8 32% 35% -8.2 25% 26% -1.7
07.01.24 Kenya Commercial Bank vs Tusker FC 0-5 35% 37% -7.6 32% 35% -9.0 33% 37% -11.2
07.01.24 Sofapaka FC vs Bidco United 3-0 33% 36% -8.5 31% 34% -7.8 36% 40% -11.1
13.01.24 Gor Mahia vs Kariobangi Sharks 1-0 53% 61% -13.4 29% 30% -5.1 18% 19% -2.5
13.01.24 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Bandari FC 0-0 35% 39% -10.0 32% 34% -8.3 33% 36% -9.4
14.01.24 Bidco United vs Kenya Police FC 0-1 38% 43% -10.8 31% 34% -7.5 30% 33% -9.1
14.01.24 Muhoroni Youth vs AFC Leopards 0-1 27% 29% -8.7 31% 34% -9.4 42% 47% -9.5
14.01.24 Muranga Seal vs FC Talanta 0-1 41% 47% -13.3 30% 32% -5.6 29% 31% -6.5
14.01.24 Nairobi City Stars vs Posta Rangers 1-0 32% 35% -9.1 31% 34% -8.7 37% 41% -9.9
14.01.24 Nzoia Sugar FC vs Shabana FC 2-5 42% 48% -12.4 31% 33% -7.0 27% 29% -6.6
14.01.24 Tusker FC vs Sofapaka FC 3-1 55% 65% -15.0 27% 28% -1.9 18% 18% 0.8
14.01.24 Ulinzi Stars vs Kenya Commercial Bank 0-0 35% 39% -9.2 32% 34% -8.2 33% 37% -10.2
19.01.24 Sofapaka FC vs Kakamega Homeboyz FC 1-0 30% 33% -7.5 31% 33% -8.0 39% 45% -12.5
20.01.24 Bandari FC vs Kariobangi Sharks 2-2 50% 58% -15.2 30% 33% -7.0 20% 19% 3.0
20.01.24 Gor Mahia vs Tusker FC 1-0 43% 48% -10.3 31% 34% -8.5 26% 29% -10.1
20.01.24 Kenya Commercial Bank vs Muhoroni Youth 0-0 53% 62% -14.0 28% 29% -3.8 19% 20% -4.5
20.01.24 Shabana FC vs Ulinzi Stars 0-1 36% 41% -11.5 31% 34% -8.1 32% 36% -8.8
21.01.24 AFC Leopards vs Nairobi City Stars 2-0 38% 41% -7.5 31% 33% -7.2 32% 37% -13.8
21.01.24 FC Talanta vs Bidco United 3-5 34% 37% -6.8 32% 35% -8.7 34% 39% -13.2
21.01.24 Kenya Police FC vs Nzoia Sugar FC 2-0 52% 61% -15.2 29% 30% -4.9 19% 19% 0.4
21.01.24 Posta Rangers vs Muranga Seal 1-0 46% 53% -14.8 30% 33% -7.0 24% 24% -1.8
03.02.24 Kakamega Homeboyz FC vs Muhoroni Youth 0-0 60% 72% -16.0 25% 25% 0.0 14% 13% 6.3
03.02.24 Kenya Police FC vs Gor Mahia 3-1 27% 28% -4.3 31% 34% -9.1 42% 48% -13.0
03.02.24 Nzoia Sugar FC vs Posta Rangers 0-1 30% 33% -9.2 29% 30% -5.6 42% 47% -12.3
03.02.24 Sofapaka FC vs Kenya Commercial Bank 2-1 26% 26% -2.1 31% 34% -8.9 43% 51% -14.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 440 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

17 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Gor Mahia 1765.00
2 AFC Leopards 1726.07
3 Kenya Police FC 1725.92
4 Kakamega Homeboyz FC 1714.35
5 Shabana FC 1701.01
6 Kenya Commercial Bank 1658.85
7 Bandari FC 1642.54
8 Kariobangi Sharks 1626.45
9 APS Bomet 1594.07
10 Mara Sugar FC 1590.14
11 Posta Rangers 1587.38
12 Mathare United 1569.01
13 Ulinzi Stars 1565.71
14 Muranga Seal 1564.03
15 Bidco United 1554.24
16 Sofapaka FC 1552.54
17 Tusker FC 1551.33

Away Ratings

17 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Kenya Police FC 1703.31
2 AFC Leopards 1684.33
3 Kakamega Homeboyz FC 1661.86
4 Kenya Commercial Bank 1654.34
5 Gor Mahia 1628.28
6 Shabana FC 1616.67
7 Mara Sugar FC 1576.14
8 Muranga Seal 1570.90
9 Posta Rangers 1568.95
10 Kariobangi Sharks 1559.15
11 Sofapaka FC 1558.19
12 Bidco United 1555.72
13 Bandari FC 1542.32
14 Ulinzi Stars 1539.71
15 Tusker FC 1527.47
16 APS Bomet 1521.02
17 Mathare United 1514.00