ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 274
Avg Goals 2.63
Avg Home 1.38
Avg Away 1.24
Home Win % 42.3%
Draw % 23.0%
Away Win % 34.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 274
Avg Brier Score 0.4888
Pick Accuracy 63.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4847
Market Brier 0.4900
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 274 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.0% 4.7% 64
10–20% 15.2% 5.4% 148
20–30% 25.6% 25.0% 260
30–40% 33.7% 37.6% 117
40–50% 44.6% 40.7% 59
50–60% 54.7% 61.0% 59
60–70% 65.2% 71.4% 56
70–80% 74.7% 90.0% 40
80–90% 84.6% 94.4% 18
90–100% 91.3% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 Tadamon Sour vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 2-0 42% 47% -10.6 29% 32% -9.6 29% 34% -13.8
05.08.23 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 3-0 66% 71% -7.8 22% 26% -12.4 12% 14% -15.3
06.08.23 Al Ahed Beirut vs Racing Beirut 5-1 72% 77% -6.8 18% 21% -13.4 10% 13% -22.0
06.08.23 AL Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ansar Beirut 2-2 7% 9% -22.6 15% 17% -15.2 79% 84% -6.5
11.08.23 Tadamon Sour vs Racing Beirut 1-2 46% 53% -14.1 27% 29% -6.6 27% 29% -9.7
12.08.23 Al Hikma vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-2 11% 13% -15.7 19% 21% -8.4 70% 77% -9.2
13.08.23 Al Ahed Beirut vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 1-2 45% 50% -10.0 30% 34% -11.5 25% 29% -12.5
18.08.23 AL Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ahed Beirut 0-4 5% 7% -22.6 13% 15% -16.3 82% 88% -6.5
19.08.23 Tadamon Sour vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 0-3 11% 13% -14.3 21% 23% -9.6 68% 75% -9.3
20.08.23 Shabab Sahel vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-1 21% 26% -17.0 27% 30% -11.0 52% 56% -8.5
26.08.23 Al Hikma vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-2 5% 6% -8.7 13% 14% -6.2 82% 89% -8.7
26.08.23 Tripoli SC vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-2 12% 15% -22.0 20% 23% -13.4 68% 73% -6.8
27.08.23 Bourj FC vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 1-3 20% 24% -15.2 27% 30% -10.8 53% 58% -9.2
27.08.23 Tadamon Sour vs AL Ahli Nabatiya 1-1 43% 48% -10.1 29% 32% -9.5 28% 32% -13.3
23.09.23 Al Ansar Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 2-2 67% 75% -10.5 21% 22% -6.7 12% 14% -12.9
23.09.23 Al Hikma vs Tadamon Sour 1-0 41% 45% -10.1 29% 32% -9.2 30% 34% -13.4
24.09.23 Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 0-4 7% 8% -13.8 15% 17% -7.9 78% 85% -9.0
24.09.23 Shabab Sahel vs Al Ahed Beirut 0-5 14% 16% -10.6 23% 24% -6.7 63% 71% -11.2
28.09.23 Al Ansar Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-1 21% 23% -6.2 27% 29% -6.4 52% 61% -14.3
28.09.23 Racing Beirut vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 1-1 12% 13% -6.8 20% 21% -2.3 67% 77% -12.6
30.09.23 Shabab Sahel vs Tadamon Sour 0-0 53% 58% -9.8 27% 29% -9.2 21% 24% -13.8
28.10.23 Al Ansar Beirut vs Tadamon Sour 1-0 69% 75% -8.0 21% 24% -12.5 10% 12% -15.1
29.10.23 Safa Beirut SC vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-3 16% 18% -14.7 23% 24% -7.4 62% 69% -10.9
29.10.23 Tripoli SC vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 1-2 9% 10% -6.3 18% 18% -2.6 73% 82% -10.5
04.11.23 Safa Beirut SC vs Tadamon Sour 4-1 52% 58% -10.7 27% 29% -8.3 21% 24% -12.2
04.11.23 Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed Beirut 0-1 7% 8% -16.2 16% 17% -10.3 77% 84% -7.9
05.11.23 Al Ansar Beirut vs Bourj FC 0-2 52% 60% -12.5 27% 29% -8.1 21% 23% -9.6
09.11.23 Al Ahed Beirut vs Tadamon Sour 1-0 79% 86% -8.3 15% 17% -11.2 6% 7% -16.4
10.11.23 Al Ansar Beirut vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 2-0 80% 87% -8.2 14% 15% -8.9 6% 7% -16.4
11.11.23 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Hikma 2-1 76% 83% -8.3 16% 18% -9.6 7% 8% -14.0
02.12.23 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Shabab Sahel 3-1 63% 73% -14.3 23% 23% -2.3 15% 15% -3.3
03.12.23 Al Ahed Beirut vs Bourj FC 3-0 53% 61% -11.8 26% 28% -6.6 21% 23% -10.7
03.12.23 Racing Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 2-2 16% 19% -14.8 24% 26% -9.1 60% 67% -10.2
03.12.23 Tripoli SC vs Tadamon Sour 2-0 37% 43% -13.2 30% 33% -10.0 33% 37% -10.7
07.12.23 Al Ahed Beirut vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 5-0 87% 93% -7.0 10% 11% -7.0 3% 4% -12.9
08.12.23 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-5 41% 49% -15.6 30% 32% -8.5 29% 31% -4.7
08.12.23 Tadamon Sour vs Bourj FC 0-1 20% 23% -14.7 27% 30% -10.9 53% 59% -9.3
16.12.23 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs AL Ahli Nabatiya 1-0 74% 81% -8.1 17% 19% -9.8 9% 11% -17.4
02.02.24 Al Ahed Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-1 49% 56% -13.0 28% 30% -8.1 23% 26% -9.2
03.02.24 Bourj FC vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 0-0 27% 29% -9.7 30% 33% -10.4 44% 50% -12.8
04.02.24 AL Ahli Nabatiya vs Tadamon Sour 0-0 28% 29% -3.9 31% 35% -11.0 41% 48% -14.9
07.02.24 Al Ahed Beirut vs Bourj FC 3-0 64% 72% -11.5 25% 28% -10.5 11% 11% 1.6
09.02.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Racing Beirut 4-1 66% 73% -9.5 22% 24% -10.6 12% 14% -14.9
10.02.24 Safa Beirut SC vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 1-0 21% 23% -7.3 27% 29% -7.8 52% 60% -14.0
11.02.24 Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Tadamon Sour 0-1 22% 23% -4.5 27% 29% -6.9 51% 60% -15.1
16.02.24 Tripoli SC vs Tadamon Sour 1-1 49% 53% -8.7 29% 33% -12.1 22% 26% -13.8
23.02.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Racing Beirut 1-0 59% 65% -8.3 24% 27% -10.6 17% 21% -18.6
24.02.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Bourj FC 4-0 55% 62% -11.6 26% 28% -7.1 19% 21% -9.9
25.02.24 Safa Beirut SC vs Al Ahed Beirut 0-0 21% 24% -14.0 26% 29% -8.5 53% 60% -11.1
25.02.24 Tadamon Sour vs Al Hikma 2-1 44% 49% -10.5 30% 33% -11.0 27% 31% -13.4
29.02.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 4-1 56% 61% -8.5 26% 29% -10.4 18% 22% -16.1
01.03.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-1 27% 29% -6.5 30% 34% -10.5 43% 50% -14.1
03.03.24 Shabab Sahel vs Tadamon Sour 2-0 50% 53% -6.6 29% 34% -13.3 21% 24% -15.2
07.03.24 Racing Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-2 10% 11% -10.3 19% 20% -6.0 72% 79% -9.9
08.03.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-2 35% 39% -10.0 29% 32% -8.8 35% 41% -13.6
13.03.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-0 36% 42% -15.0 28% 31% -7.8 36% 40% -10.6
14.03.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Bourj FC 1-0 58% 65% -10.2 25% 28% -9.0 17% 19% -11.8
16.03.24 Tadamon Sour vs AL Ahli Nabatiya 1-0 46% 51% -8.1 31% 35% -13.0 23% 27% -13.5
22.03.24 Tadamon Sour vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 2-0 58% 64% -9.3 26% 30% -12.7 16% 18% -13.3
09.05.24 Tadamon Sour vs Tripoli SC 0-1 38% 43% -11.9 32% 36% -11.5 31% 34% -8.8
11.05.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 2-0 53% 60% -10.8 25% 27% -6.7 22% 26% -16.4
12.05.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-0 30% 32% -8.4 29% 32% -8.8 41% 48% -13.8
16.05.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-2 33% 36% -8.7 29% 31% -7.9 39% 45% -15.1
16.05.24 Racing Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-5 12% 14% -13.1 21% 23% -8.5 67% 74% -9.7
17.05.24 Al Hikma vs Tadamon Sour 0-0 50% 58% -14.0 27% 29% -7.2 23% 25% -8.0
20.05.24 Al Ahed Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 0-3 45% 52% -12.8 27% 29% -6.8 27% 31% -12.2
20.05.24 Bourj FC vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 0-1 16% 17% -6.8 23% 23% -2.1 61% 71% -13.7
15.06.24 Safa Beirut SC vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-3 20% 22% -9.0 26% 29% -7.5 54% 61% -12.3
16.06.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Bourj FC 3-0 68% 78% -11.6 21% 22% -6.4 11% 11% -6.4
16.06.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Racing Beirut 2-1 76% 82% -7.2 18% 21% -16.0 6% 8% -16.8
20.06.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 4-1 67% 76% -12.0 20% 21% -2.8 12% 13% -7.5
20.06.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-0 42% 48% -12.7 28% 30% -7.2 30% 34% -12.0
24.06.24 Racing Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-4 10% 12% -19.1 18% 21% -11.6 72% 78% -8.1
20.09.24 Reyady Abaseya vs Tadamon Sour 1-2 39% 41% -4.8 30% 34% -11.2 31% 38% -17.8
21.09.24 Bourj FC vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-3 19% 21% -11.5 26% 28% -7.8 56% 62% -10.8
22.09.24 Al Ansar Beirut vs Shabab Baalbeck SC 4-0 70% 75% -5.5 19% 23% -17.1 11% 14% -25.4
22.09.24 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 3-0 79% 85% -6.2 14% 17% -17.2 6% 8% -23.5
25.01.25 Al Ansar Beirut vs Racing Beirut 3-0 67% 72% -7.1 19% 22% -11.2 13% 17% -23.2
26.01.25 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ahed Beirut 1-2 35% 38% -8.1 30% 33% -10.0 35% 42% -15.2
26.01.25 Shabab Sahel vs Tadamon Sour 0-2 52% 61% -16.0 28% 31% -8.2 20% 20% 1.1
31.01.25 Al Ahed Beirut vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 3-1 84% 91% -7.3 11% 11% -6.5 5% 6% -19.4
01.02.25 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Hikma 0-0 63% 67% -5.6 23% 28% -15.7 14% 17% -21.5
01.02.25 Bourj FC vs Tadamon Sour 0-2 38% 44% -13.6 31% 35% -11.1 31% 33% -8.2
06.02.25 Al Ansar Beirut vs Shabab Sahel 3-1 71% 76% -5.8 19% 23% -16.1 9% 12% -21.4
07.02.25 Al Ahed Beirut vs Al Hikma 3-1 68% 75% -8.4 20% 23% -10.9 11% 14% -17.6
07.02.25 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Tadamon Sour 1-0 49% 53% -7.6 28% 32% -12.1 23% 28% -17.3
07.02.25 Shabab Baalbeck SC vs Reyady Abaseya 0-0 58% 65% -11.7 25% 28% -8.9 17% 19% -11.0
12.02.25 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 0-2 42% 44% -4.6 29% 32% -10.3 29% 35% -18.4
12.02.25 Racing Beirut vs Reyady Abaseya 0-0 49% 56% -12.8 28% 30% -8.2 23% 26% -9.6
13.02.25 Al Ahed Beirut vs Tadamon Sour 4-0 65% 74% -12.2 22% 24% -5.7 13% 14% -6.0
13.02.25 Al Ansar Beirut vs Bourj FC 1-0 85% 92% -7.3 11% 12% -9.8 4% 5% -16.0
18.02.25 Al Ahed Beirut vs Safa Beirut SC 0-0 52% 58% -11.4 26% 28% -7.2 22% 26% -14.7
18.02.25 Reyady Abaseya vs Shabab Al Ghazieh 0-0 38% 43% -13.2 31% 34% -9.9 32% 34% -8.1
19.02.25 Al Hikma vs Tadamon Sour 0-0 38% 47% -17.4 30% 33% -9.7 31% 32% -2.4
19.02.25 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 1-2 29% 33% -12.6 30% 34% -10.8 41% 45% -10.6
25.02.25 Al Ahed Beirut vs Al Ansar Beirut 2-4 31% 36% -15.8 28% 30% -7.6 41% 45% -9.0
25.02.25 Reyady Abaseya vs Shabab Sahel 2-2 25% 31% -18.4 30% 34% -12.9 45% 48% -5.6
26.02.25 Al Nejmeh Beirut vs Shabab Baalbeck SC 3-1 80% 87% -8.4 14% 15% -9.1 6% 8% -17.3
26.02.25 Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Tadamon Sour 2-1 21% 26% -19.9 29% 34% -14.8 50% 52% -3.4
02.03.25 Racing Beirut vs Al Nejmeh Beirut 0-0 10% 12% -12.8 20% 22% -9.4 70% 77% -9.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 274 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

4 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Al Ansar Beirut 1835.11
2 Al Nejmeh Beirut 1828.19
3 Jwaaya FC 1753.75
4 Al Ahed Beirut 1603.72

Away Ratings

4 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Al Ansar Beirut 1875.24
2 Al Nejmeh Beirut 1765.69
3 Al Ahed Beirut 1597.51
4 Jwaaya FC 1585.02