ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 620
Avg Goals 3.09
Avg Home 1.67
Avg Away 1.42
Home Win % 44.7%
Draw % 18.7%
Away Win % 36.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 620
Avg Brier Score 0.5378
Pick Accuracy 59.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5455
Market Brier 0.5370
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 10
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 70.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 9 of 620 matches had at least one · staked 10.00, profit -10.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 7 0.0% 7.00 -7.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 4.4% 68
10–20% 15.9% 14.5% 337
20–30% 24.3% 21.1% 665
30–40% 34.8% 34.9% 232
40–50% 45.0% 49.2% 199
50–60% 54.6% 60.3% 141
60–70% 64.4% 70.5% 122
70–80% 74.2% 80.0% 70
80–90% 83.4% 84.6% 26
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
28.07.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs Ekranas Panevezys 2-3 28% 29% -3.3 25% 28% -11.6 47% 55% -14.5
29.07.23 FK Garliava vs FK Babrungas Plunge 3-4 36% 40% -9.6 27% 31% -14.7 37% 42% -10.8
29.07.23 FK Transinvest vs Neptunas Klaipeda 3-1 55% 62% -11.1 24% 28% -13.9 21% 23% -8.1
29.07.23 Marijampole City vs FK Siauliai II 0-5 26% 23% 14.6 24% 27% -10.7 49% 62% -20.4
29.07.23 Minija Kretinga vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 2-1 30% 34% -10.2 26% 30% -14.5 44% 49% -10.5
31.07.23 FK Panevezys II vs BFA Vilnius 1-1 38% 43% -10.0 26% 29% -12.8 36% 40% -9.9
04.08.23 FK Babrungas Plunge vs FK Panevezys II 5-2 60% 63% -5.5 21% 25% -14.7 19% 23% -18.2
04.08.23 Nevezis Kedainiai vs Minija Kretinga 2-1 60% 66% -9.4 23% 26% -13.9 17% 19% -8.9
05.08.23 Be1 NFA Kaunas vs FK Siauliai II 2-1 59% 63% -7.2 22% 25% -14.0 20% 24% -16.9
05.08.23 Marijampole City vs FK Garliava 1-3 5% 2% 123.1 11% 10% 12.0 84% 95% -12.2
06.08.23 Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Riteriai II 1-2 58% 64% -9.1 23% 27% -14.8 19% 22% -12.1
07.08.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs Ekranas Panevezys 2-2 26% 28% -4.8 24% 28% -12.0 49% 56% -13.1
07.08.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs BFA Vilnius 1-6 37% 42% -11.5 25% 29% -12.3 38% 42% -9.7
12.08.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs BFA Vilnius 1-0 50% 56% -10.9 24% 28% -12.4 25% 28% -8.7
12.08.23 FK Garliava vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 0-3 39% 39% -0.4 26% 31% -15.0 35% 43% -18.3
12.08.23 FK Siauliai II vs Nevezis Kedainiai 3-2 23% 24% -3.6 24% 27% -11.7 54% 62% -13.3
12.08.23 FK Transinvest vs Kauno Zalgiris II 3-0 83% 90% -7.4 11% 12% -11.2 6% 7% -15.2
12.08.23 Minija Kretinga vs Neptunas Klaipeda 2-0 28% 31% -11.7 25% 29% -14.2 47% 52% -9.0
12.08.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Babrungas Plunge 2-1 19% 19% -0.7 21% 23% -8.8 60% 70% -14.2
18.08.23 FK Babrungas Plunge vs Ekranas Panevezys 3-1 47% 49% -4.1 24% 29% -14.3 29% 35% -18.0
18.08.23 Nevezis Kedainiai vs FK Garliava 1-1 46% 50% -7.2 26% 30% -15.0 28% 32% -13.8
20.08.23 Be1 NFA Kaunas vs FK Panevezys II 3-1 66% 76% -12.3 19% 20% -6.7 15% 15% -3.0
20.08.23 Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Siauliai II 3-0 66% 71% -7.9 20% 23% -14.2 15% 17% -15.3
21.08.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs BFA Vilnius 2-0 31% 35% -10.6 25% 28% -11.6 44% 49% -9.7
21.08.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs Marijampole City 6-0 50% 49% 2.7 23% 29% -18.3 27% 36% -25.6
25.08.23 FK Garliava vs Neptunas Klaipeda 0-1 30% 30% -1.2 26% 29% -13.0 44% 53% -15.5
26.08.23 BFA Vilnius vs FK Babrungas Plunge 1-2 29% 31% -8.5 25% 29% -12.9 47% 53% -11.6
26.08.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs Marijampole City 0-1 87% 93% -6.5 9% 11% -15.6 4% 5% -19.1
26.08.23 Minija Kretinga vs FK Transinvest 1-0 11% 12% -7.2 18% 21% -13.3 71% 78% -9.0
27.08.23 FK Riteriai II vs Kauno Zalgiris II 1-0 60% 65% -7.3 22% 26% -15.1 18% 21% -14.2
28.08.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 0-1 21% 24% -10.7 22% 26% -12.3 56% 62% -9.4
30.08.23 FK Transinvest vs FK Siauliai II 10-0 81% 86% -6.4 12% 15% -15.6 7% 8% -18.6
30.08.23 Marijampole City vs BFA Vilnius 0-0 30% 37% -19.4 23% 27% -13.6 47% 49% -4.1
31.08.23 FK Riteriai II vs Minija Kretinga 3-0 45% 49% -7.3 26% 30% -14.6 29% 33% -13.3
31.08.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Babrungas Plunge 1-1 22% 25% -10.0 23% 27% -13.2 54% 60% -10.3
31.08.23 Nevezis Kedainiai vs Zalgiris Vilnius II 4-1 62% 65% -5.0 21% 24% -15.9 17% 22% -20.1
01.09.23 Be1 NFA Kaunas vs Ekranas Panevezys 1-0 51% 58% -12.5 25% 29% -13.6 24% 25% -3.9
06.09.23 Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Panevezys II 2-2 62% 68% -9.5 20% 23% -11.7 18% 21% -13.4
15.09.23 FK Babrungas Plunge vs Marijampole City 6-2 86% 92% -6.7 9% 10% -10.9 6% 7% -20.1
15.09.23 Minija Kretinga vs Kauno Zalgiris II 3-0 52% 57% -8.8 24% 28% -14.0 24% 28% -13.7
16.09.23 BFA Vilnius vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 0-1 20% 24% -17.3 24% 29% -17.4 56% 60% -5.5
16.09.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs Nevezis Kedainiai 2-2 37% 42% -11.5 27% 31% -14.3 36% 39% -7.3
16.09.23 FK Garliava vs FK Transinvest 1-1 15% 13% 13.3 20% 22% -6.8 65% 76% -14.7
16.09.23 FK Siauliai II vs FK Riteriai II 2-2 25% 26% -1.4 23% 26% -9.6 52% 61% -14.9
16.09.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs Neptunas Klaipeda 1-4 28% 31% -9.9 24% 27% -11.4 48% 55% -11.8
22.09.23 Nevezis Kedainiai vs BFA Vilnius 2-2 64% 68% -6.5 21% 24% -15.3 15% 18% -15.7
23.09.23 Be1 NFA Kaunas vs FK Babrungas Plunge 2-0 50% 54% -8.3 25% 29% -15.0 25% 29% -13.5
23.09.23 FK Riteriai II vs FK Garliava 1-1 51% 55% -7.4 25% 29% -15.0 24% 28% -13.2
23.09.23 Minija Kretinga vs FK Siauliai II 2-1 54% 60% -9.7 23% 26% -12.3 23% 26% -11.9
23.09.23 Neptunas Klaipeda vs Ekranas Panevezys 3-1 52% 60% -13.2 24% 28% -12.5 23% 24% -4.1
25.09.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs Marijampole City 3-0 62% 67% -7.0 20% 24% -13.9 17% 21% -16.9
29.09.23 FK Babrungas Plunge vs Nevezis Kedainiai 1-2 44% 49% -9.4 24% 28% -11.9 31% 36% -12.3
30.09.23 BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas Klaipeda 2-2 24% 28% -14.7 24% 29% -15.3 52% 56% -7.3
30.09.23 FK Garliava vs Minija Kretinga 2-0 35% 36% -1.1 27% 31% -14.7 38% 45% -16.4
02.10.23 FK Siauliai II vs Kauno Zalgiris II 2-2 37% 39% -5.1 25% 29% -12.9 38% 45% -16.6
04.10.23 Be1 NFA Kaunas vs Nevezis Kedainiai 1-1 53% 58% -8.8 24% 28% -13.6 23% 26% -11.5
07.10.23 FK Siauliai II vs FK Garliava 3-3 30% 31% -5.1 25% 28% -11.6 46% 53% -13.9
07.10.23 FK Transinvest vs Ekranas Panevezys 0-2 75% 83% -9.6 15% 17% -8.6 10% 11% -9.4
07.10.23 Minija Kretinga vs FK Panevezys II 4-1 53% 60% -11.0 24% 27% -11.8 23% 26% -8.4
07.10.23 Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Babrungas Plunge 5-0 49% 55% -11.4 25% 29% -12.8 26% 29% -7.6
08.10.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 0-1 24% 29% -15.4 24% 28% -14.6 52% 56% -7.2
09.10.23 FK Riteriai II vs Zalgiris Vilnius II 1-1 63% 69% -8.9 21% 25% -14.6 15% 17% -11.3
11.10.23 FK Panevezys II vs FK Siauliai II 3-0 45% 50% -9.1 24% 26% -10.6 31% 36% -13.1
13.10.23 FK Garliava vs Kauno Zalgiris II 0-0 56% 61% -9.1 23% 26% -13.1 21% 24% -12.3
14.10.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs FK Riteriai II 1-2 41% 49% -15.2 26% 29% -13.2 33% 34% -4.0
15.10.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs Minija Kretinga 2-3 30% 31% -4.8 24% 27% -10.9 46% 54% -14.6
18.10.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Transinvest 2-2 11% 13% -12.2 16% 18% -11.4 73% 80% -9.3
20.10.23 FK Garliava vs FK Panevezys II 1-0 50% 55% -8.9 24% 28% -13.0 26% 29% -12.4
21.10.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs Minija Kretinga 2-1 43% 47% -8.5 26% 29% -13.3 32% 36% -12.1
21.10.23 FK Transinvest vs FK Babrungas Plunge 4-1 69% 76% -9.8 17% 19% -9.4 14% 16% -13.1
21.10.23 Neptunas Klaipeda vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 1-1 45% 51% -12.2 26% 29% -12.9 29% 31% -6.0
22.10.23 FK Riteriai II vs BFA Vilnius 1-3 59% 63% -7.5 22% 26% -15.2 19% 23% -15.9
22.10.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs Nevezis Kedainiai 3-1 31% 36% -14.1 26% 30% -14.4 43% 45% -5.8
23.10.23 FK Siauliai II vs Zalgiris Vilnius II 3-0 41% 44% -8.8 25% 28% -11.6 35% 40% -12.7
27.10.23 FK Babrungas Plunge vs FK Riteriai II 2-3 39% 43% -8.1 26% 30% -14.1 35% 40% -12.8
27.10.23 FK Panevezys II vs Kauno Zalgiris II 0-1 46% 53% -12.6 24% 27% -10.9 30% 33% -9.3
28.10.23 BFA Vilnius vs Minija Kretinga 2-0 31% 33% -6.3 25% 29% -12.4 44% 51% -13.4
28.10.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs FK Siauliai II 2-3 55% 61% -9.4 22% 26% -12.5 23% 26% -13.8
28.10.23 Nevezis Kedainiai vs Neptunas Klaipeda 0-3 35% 39% -10.4 26% 31% -14.2 38% 43% -9.6
28.10.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Garliava 1-1 35% 38% -8.1 25% 29% -12.3 40% 45% -12.9
31.10.23 FK Riteriai II vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 0-1 33% 35% -6.6 26% 31% -14.6 41% 48% -13.6
03.11.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Panevezys II 4-4 45% 50% -10.5 24% 27% -11.3 32% 36% -13.2
04.11.23 FK Garliava vs Ekranas Panevezys 4-0 36% 40% -9.2 26% 29% -13.2 38% 43% -12.2
04.11.23 FK Transinvest vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 1-0 65% 72% -9.4 20% 23% -12.4 15% 16% -8.9
04.11.23 Kauno Zalgiris II vs Neptunas Klaipeda 5-1 21% 24% -12.1 22% 25% -12.4 57% 63% -9.7
04.11.23 Minija Kretinga vs FK Babrungas Plunge 1-3 35% 38% -7.9 23% 25% -8.5 42% 49% -14.4
05.11.23 FK Siauliai II vs BFA Vilnius 4-2 34% 36% -4.9 24% 27% -10.4 42% 50% -15.7
08.11.23 Be1 NFA Kaunas vs FK Riteriai II 3-1 57% 64% -10.3 22% 26% -12.3 20% 23% -10.2
08.11.23 BFA Vilnius vs FK Garliava 2-0 32% 33% -2.6 25% 29% -12.3 42% 51% -15.9
08.11.23 Ekranas Panevezys vs FK Panevezys II 0-3 51% 56% -8.2 23% 26% -11.3 26% 31% -14.8
08.11.23 FK Babrungas Plunge vs FK Siauliai II 3-0 62% 68% -8.2 20% 22% -12.2 18% 22% -17.1
08.11.23 Zalgiris Vilnius II vs Kauno Zalgiris II 5-3 49% 55% -11.3 23% 25% -9.4 29% 32% -11.4
07.03.24 Hegelmann Litauen II vs Be1 NFA Kaunas 1-3 19% 13% 48.4 20% 20% -0.6 61% 78% -22.0
08.03.24 FK Babrungas Plunge vs FK Panevezys II 0-0 53% 56% -6.3 23% 27% -13.7 24% 29% -17.3
08.03.24 Minija Kretinga vs Kauno Zalgiris II 1-2 54% 58% -6.5 24% 28% -14.8 22% 26% -15.4
08.03.24 Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Atmosfera 2-0 61% 67% -9.5 21% 24% -12.2 18% 20% -10.6
09.03.24 BFA Vilnius vs Ekranas Panevezys 1-1 38% 42% -9.1 27% 31% -14.6 35% 39% -10.8
09.03.24 FK Riteriai vs FK Tauras Taurage 2-0 63% 66% -3.6 20% 24% -17.7 17% 22% -23.6
09.03.24 FK Siauliai II vs FK Garliava 0-0 34% 36% -5.2 25% 28% -11.2 41% 48% -14.3
15.03.24 FK Atmosfera vs Nevezis Kedainiai 1-2 33% 36% -8.7 26% 29% -13.0 41% 47% -11.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 620 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Minija Kretinga 1572.73
2 FK Babrungas Plunge 1415.58
3 Neptunas Klaipeda 1367.49
4 FK Tauras Taurage 1354.03
5 Be1 NFA Kaunas 1353.85
6 FK Atmosfera 1352.21
7 Dainava Alytus 1339.21
8 BFA Vilnius 1330.35
9 Zalgiris Vilnius II 1272.01
10 FK Jonava 1268.57
11 Hegelmann Litauen II 1242.98
12 FK Garliava 1222.30
13 Kauno Zalgiris II 1186.72
14 FK Transinvest II 1184.75
15 FK Siauliai II 1154.49
16 Ekranas Panevezys 1086.75

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Minija Kretinga 1583.16
2 FK Babrungas Plunge 1380.41
3 Be1 NFA Kaunas 1363.30
4 Dainava Alytus 1334.67
5 FK Tauras Taurage 1332.66
6 BFA Vilnius 1316.63
7 FK Atmosfera 1281.28
8 FK Jonava 1267.39
9 FK Garliava 1242.32
10 Neptunas Klaipeda 1238.34
11 Zalgiris Vilnius II 1225.95
12 Kauno Zalgiris II 1140.12
13 FK Siauliai II 1096.95
14 Hegelmann Litauen II 1094.49
15 FK Transinvest II 1094.32
16 Ekranas Panevezys 1047.77