ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 424
Avg Goals 1.97
Avg Home 0.96
Avg Away 1.02
Home Win % 33.5%
Draw % 29.7%
Away Win % 36.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 424
Avg Brier Score 0.6254
Pick Accuracy 46.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6176
Market Brier 0.6294
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 8
Value Bet Hit Rate 25.0%
ROI (flat stake) 112.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 8 of 424 matches had at least one · staked 8.00, profit 9.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 8 25.0% 8.00 9.00 112.5%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 0.0% 3
10–20% 15.7% 11.5% 96
20–30% 26.2% 27.8% 331
30–40% 33.4% 31.9% 598
40–50% 44.6% 44.9% 138
50–60% 54.0% 66.7% 72
60–70% 63.7% 59.4% 32
70–80% 72.5% 50.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
01.11.23 USC Kita vs Afrique Football Elite 1-1 33% 39% -14.9 34% 39% -13.1 33% 34% -4.0
02.11.23 Stade Malien de Bamako vs USFAS Bamako 1-1 37% 43% -13.3 33% 37% -10.9 30% 32% -6.6
05.11.23 AS Police vs AS Bakaridjan 0-1 35% 41% -15.0 32% 36% -11.0 33% 35% -6.1
06.11.23 Djoliba AC vs Union Sportive Bougouba 2-0 49% 58% -14.7 31% 34% -9.8 20% 20% -2.0
06.11.23 US Bougouni vs Binga FC 1-1 41% 51% -18.0 31% 34% -9.1 27% 27% 0.8
11.11.23 Afrique Football Elite vs Club Olympique de Bamako 1-1 47% 56% -16.4 31% 34% -8.7 22% 22% 0.5
11.11.23 AS Korofina vs AS Police 0-1 38% 45% -15.6 34% 38% -12.7 28% 29% -4.6
12.11.23 Onze Createurs vs USFAS Bamako 1-0 30% 34% -11.2 33% 37% -12.0 37% 42% -11.7
18.11.23 AS Black Stars vs AS Korofina 1-2 35% 41% -13.8 33% 37% -11.6 32% 35% -8.6
18.11.23 US Bougouni vs USFAS Bamako 0-0 35% 42% -15.9 32% 36% -10.5 33% 35% -5.3
19.11.23 Binga FC vs ATS de Koro 1-0 38% 44% -15.3 32% 36% -10.6 30% 31% -4.4
19.11.23 Onze Createurs vs Union Sportive Bougouba 1-1 37% 43% -13.6 32% 36% -10.4 31% 34% -9.4
22.11.23 Afrique Football Elite vs AS Bakaridjan 3-1 33% 38% -12.4 33% 37% -11.5 34% 38% -9.4
25.11.23 AS Korofina vs Afrique Football Elite 1-0 34% 39% -14.6 32% 36% -11.2 34% 37% -7.6
25.11.23 ATS de Koro vs Union Sportive Bougouba 0-3 32% 36% -12.1 31% 35% -10.1 37% 42% -11.9
25.11.23 Real Bamako vs USC Kita 2-1 58% 70% -16.8 27% 28% -3.4 15% 14% 8.8
26.11.23 Binga FC vs Onze Createurs 1-0 35% 41% -15.0 32% 36% -11.0 33% 35% -6.2
01.12.23 AS Black Stars vs Real Bamako 1-4 15% 16% -7.2 27% 30% -11.9 58% 65% -10.5
01.12.23 ATS de Koro vs US Bougouni 2-2 29% 34% -13.1 31% 35% -10.6 39% 43% -9.9
01.12.23 USC Kita vs AS Bakaridjan 2-2 30% 34% -13.9 32% 36% -11.3 39% 43% -9.2
02.12.23 Afrique Football Elite vs AS Police 1-0 48% 57% -16.8 30% 33% -8.6 22% 22% -1.2
02.12.23 Onze Createurs vs Djoliba AC 1-0 25% 29% -11.9 31% 34% -10.8 44% 49% -9.7
02.12.23 USFAS Bamako vs Binga FC 0-1 40% 47% -13.4 32% 36% -9.8 27% 29% -6.6
05.12.23 ATS de Koro vs Djoliba AC 0-1 19% 21% -8.8 26% 28% -6.8 55% 63% -12.9
05.12.23 Real Bamako vs Afrique Football Elite 0-0 50% 60% -15.9 29% 30% -5.6 21% 22% -3.9
06.12.23 AS Korofina vs USC Kita 0-0 38% 45% -15.4 31% 35% -9.7 30% 32% -6.8
06.12.23 US Bougouni vs Onze Createurs 1-0 37% 43% -14.6 31% 34% -8.8 32% 35% -8.9
06.12.23 USFAS Bamako vs Union Sportive Bougouba 0-1 38% 44% -13.4 31% 34% -9.1 31% 35% -11.9
10.12.23 Binga FC vs AS Korofina 2-0 36% 41% -12.7 34% 39% -12.6 30% 32% -6.7
10.12.23 Union Sportive Bougouba vs AS Bakaridjan 0-0 40% 47% -14.8 33% 37% -11.5 28% 29% -6.3
16.12.23 Afrique Football Elite vs ATS de Koro 0-0 46% 54% -14.4 30% 32% -7.3 24% 26% -7.1
16.12.23 Club Olympique de Bamako vs Stade Malien de Bamako 0-2 26% 31% -16.5 31% 35% -12.3 43% 45% -5.1
17.12.23 Real Bamako vs Djoliba AC 0-0 45% 55% -17.4 29% 31% -5.5 26% 26% -3.0
17.12.23 US Bougouni vs AS Police 0-2 47% 57% -17.5 29% 31% -6.2 24% 24% -1.2
17.12.23 USFAS Bamako vs USC Kita 0-0 45% 52% -13.8 31% 33% -8.3 25% 27% -8.3
23.12.23 AS Korofina vs US Bougouni 1-1 36% 43% -15.5 33% 38% -12.0 31% 32% -4.4
23.12.23 Stade Malien de Bamako vs Afrique Football Elite 2-0 40% 48% -16.1 33% 38% -11.7 27% 27% -1.1
26.12.23 AS Police vs Binga FC 0-0 34% 40% -15.3 34% 38% -12.9 33% 34% -5.5
26.12.23 Djoliba AC vs AS Korofina 1-0 51% 60% -15.0 30% 32% -7.6 20% 20% -2.0
26.12.23 Stade Malien de Bamako vs AS Black Stars 0-0 67% 79% -15.5 22% 22% 3.2 10% 9% 15.4
27.12.23 Afrique Football Elite vs USFAS Bamako 0-1 40% 47% -13.4 34% 38% -11.7 26% 27% -3.4
27.12.23 Club Olympique de Bamako vs Onze Createurs 0-1 32% 38% -14.4 32% 36% -10.9 36% 39% -8.5
28.12.23 Real Bamako vs Union Sportive Bougouba 2-1 46% 54% -15.6 32% 36% -10.6 22% 23% -2.9
30.12.23 Stade Malien de Bamako vs Djoliba AC 1-0 35% 42% -16.6 34% 39% -13.2 31% 31% -1.4
03.01.24 Stade Malien de Bamako vs US Bougouni 1-1 58% 71% -19.0 26% 26% 0.5 16% 14% 14.5
05.01.24 AS Korofina vs ATS de Koro 2-2 43% 51% -14.4 32% 36% -10.4 25% 26% -6.0
05.01.24 Onze Createurs vs AS Bakaridjan 3-3 34% 38% -11.7 34% 38% -12.4 32% 36% -9.5
05.01.24 USC Kita vs Djoliba AC 0-2 21% 24% -13.6 31% 36% -14.8 48% 53% -8.0
05.01.24 USFAS Bamako vs Real Bamako 0-1 24% 27% -11.2 31% 36% -11.9 45% 49% -8.8
07.01.24 Binga FC vs AS Black Stars 2-2 57% 68% -15.8 27% 28% -3.4 16% 15% 3.2
07.01.24 Stade Malien de Bamako vs AS Police 1-0 56% 67% -16.9 28% 29% -3.5 17% 15% 8.2
07.01.24 Union Sportive Bougouba vs Afrique Football Elite 1-0 47% 58% -18.4 30% 32% -6.9 23% 22% 4.9
07.01.24 US Bougouni vs Club Olympique de Bamako 0-0 39% 47% -16.3 32% 36% -10.4 29% 30% -4.0
10.01.24 Union Sportive Bougouba vs Stade Malien de Bamako 0-2 42% 52% -19.7 30% 33% -8.8 28% 28% 0.8
14.01.24 Afrique Football Elite vs Binga FC 1-0 34% 39% -13.9 34% 38% -12.5 33% 35% -6.5
14.01.24 AS Black Stars vs Union Sportive Bougouba 1-3 14% 16% -14.2 23% 27% -12.5 63% 69% -9.3
14.01.24 AS Korofina vs Onze Createurs 1-1 33% 38% -13.4 32% 36% -11.1 34% 38% -9.0
14.01.24 AS Police vs USFAS Bamako 0-0 33% 38% -13.8 35% 41% -14.1 32% 34% -4.5
14.01.24 Real Bamako vs Stade Malien de Bamako 0-1 35% 40% -13.5 34% 38% -12.3 32% 34% -6.6
14.01.24 US Bougouni vs USC Kita 0-0 38% 45% -15.6 33% 37% -11.5 29% 30% -4.9
19.01.24 AS Black Stars vs US Bougouni 1-1 26% 30% -15.4 30% 34% -11.2 44% 48% -7.0
20.01.24 ATS de Koro vs Real Bamako 0-1 16% 17% -6.9 25% 27% -7.8 60% 68% -12.6
20.01.24 Binga FC vs Club Olympique de Bamako 1-0 49% 58% -15.7 31% 34% -9.5 20% 20% 0.2
20.01.24 Djoliba AC vs Afrique Football Elite 1-0 50% 59% -15.3 30% 32% -7.5 20% 21% -2.3
21.01.24 Onze Createurs vs AS Police 3-0 38% 44% -13.5 33% 37% -11.1 29% 31% -7.0
21.01.24 Stade Malien de Bamako vs AS Bakaridjan 0-2 53% 63% -15.7 30% 32% -8.2 17% 17% 2.3
21.01.24 Union Sportive Bougouba vs USC Kita 0-1 48% 56% -13.8 31% 35% -10.3 20% 21% -4.3
21.01.24 USFAS Bamako vs AS Korofina 2-1 41% 48% -14.3 33% 37% -10.8 26% 27% -3.3
25.01.24 USC Kita vs Stade Malien de Bamako 2-3 19% 22% -13.0 30% 36% -15.0 51% 55% -7.7
26.01.24 Real Bamako vs Onze Createurs 1-0 52% 60% -14.1 29% 31% -7.5 19% 21% -6.9
27.01.24 AS Black Stars vs Djoliba AC 1-1 11% 12% -11.8 23% 27% -14.3 66% 72% -8.1
27.01.24 US Bougouni vs Afrique Football Elite 1-1 33% 39% -16.1 33% 38% -12.6 34% 36% -4.5
28.01.24 AS Korofina vs Stade Malien de Bamako 1-1 21% 25% -15.6 29% 34% -13.6 50% 54% -8.2
28.01.24 Union Sportive Bougouba vs Club Olympique de Bamako 0-0 51% 60% -15.7 29% 30% -5.9 21% 22% -4.6
28.01.24 USC Kita vs Binga FC 1-1 29% 34% -14.7 33% 38% -13.5 37% 40% -6.7
01.02.24 AS Korofina vs AS Bakaridjan 0-0 31% 36% -12.6 33% 38% -12.3 36% 39% -9.0
01.02.24 Onze Createurs vs ATS de Koro 1-1 46% 54% -14.5 30% 32% -7.3 24% 26% -7.0
04.02.24 Binga FC vs Union Sportive Bougouba 1-0 33% 39% -15.1 32% 36% -10.9 35% 38% -7.5
04.02.24 USFAS Bamako vs Stade Malien de Bamako 1-1 21% 24% -11.7 32% 38% -14.7 47% 51% -7.4
05.02.24 Afrique Football Elite vs USC Kita 2-1 40% 47% -13.8 34% 39% -12.9 26% 27% -4.7
05.02.24 Real Bamako vs AS Police 1-1 56% 67% -15.4 27% 28% -4.0 17% 17% -2.6
08.02.24 Union Sportive Bougouba vs Djoliba AC 0-1 30% 34% -12.0 33% 38% -12.3 37% 41% -9.2
09.02.24 AS Black Stars vs Afrique Football Elite 2-1 22% 27% -15.8 30% 34% -13.3 48% 51% -7.1
09.02.24 AS Korofina vs Real Bamako 1-0 21% 24% -13.1 31% 36% -14.0 48% 53% -8.6
09.02.24 ATS de Koro vs USFAS Bamako 1-0 27% 30% -12.3 33% 38% -13.1 41% 44% -8.6
09.02.24 Binga FC vs US Bougouni 0-0 43% 51% -15.0 32% 36% -10.8 25% 26% -4.0
10.02.24 Stade Malien de Bamako vs Onze Createurs 0-0 49% 56% -13.0 32% 36% -11.1 19% 20% -4.5
20.02.24 ATS de Koro vs Stade Malien de Bamako 1-1 13% 14% -8.4 26% 30% -14.5 61% 68% -9.6
23.02.24 AS Police vs AS Korofina 0-3 35% 41% -13.6 35% 40% -13.1 30% 31% -4.0
23.02.24 Real Bamako vs AS Bakaridjan 1-0 49% 58% -14.4 30% 33% -9.4 20% 22% -6.6
23.02.24 USFAS Bamako vs Onze Createurs 1-0 34% 39% -12.8 32% 36% -10.2 34% 37% -8.9
24.02.24 Club Olympique de Bamako vs Afrique Football Elite 0-1 33% 39% -16.0 33% 38% -12.5 34% 36% -4.7
24.02.24 Djoliba AC vs Binga FC 3-0 48% 56% -14.9 31% 35% -10.2 21% 22% -4.0
15.03.24 ATS de Koro vs Binga FC 1-2 27% 31% -13.7 32% 37% -12.8 41% 44% -7.3
15.03.24 Union Sportive Bougouba vs Onze Createurs 4-0 42% 49% -13.7 30% 32% -7.2 28% 31% -10.4
16.03.24 AS Korofina vs AS Black Stars 0-0 48% 56% -13.9 31% 35% -10.3 21% 22% -4.8
16.03.24 Real Bamako vs Club Olympique de Bamako 1-2 54% 63% -14.8 29% 31% -7.3 18% 18% -3.6
16.03.24 USFAS Bamako vs US Bougouni 1-0 42% 50% -15.5 32% 36% -10.8 25% 26% -3.8
17.03.24 Djoliba AC vs Stade Malien de Bamako 2-1 36% 42% -14.5 35% 41% -14.0 29% 30% -3.3
23.03.24 Afrique Football Elite vs AS Korofina 2-0 33% 37% -11.3 34% 38% -12.4 33% 37% -9.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 424 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Real Bamako 1804.53
2 Djoliba AC 1790.95
3 Stade Malien de Bamako 1769.09
4 Binga FC 1684.64
5 USFAS Bamako 1618.18
6 Afrique Football Elite 1604.39
7 AS Korofina 1591.85
8 FC Diarra 1577.09
9 AS Bakaridjan 1545.21
10 Union Sportive Bougouba 1533.60
11 Derby Academie 1522.72
12 Onze Createurs 1520.62
13 FC Mali Coura 1466.40
14 US Bougouni 1438.38

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Stade Malien de Bamako 1788.09
2 Real Bamako 1665.73
3 Binga FC 1652.83
4 Djoliba AC 1651.33
5 Derby Academie 1585.29
6 Onze Createurs 1568.21
7 USFAS Bamako 1566.84
8 FC Diarra 1564.57
9 AS Bakaridjan 1499.07
10 Union Sportive Bougouba 1486.70
11 FC Mali Coura 1485.36
12 Afrique Football Elite 1473.79
13 AS Korofina 1468.14
14 US Bougouni 1321.47