ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 288
Avg Goals 3.44
Avg Home 1.72
Avg Away 1.72
Home Win % 42.7%
Draw % 21.2%
Away Win % 36.1%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 288
Avg Brier Score 0.4819
Pick Accuracy 64.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4795
Market Brier 0.4798
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 84
Value Bet Hit Rate 6.0%
ROI (flat stake) -38.7%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 61 of 288 matches had at least one · staked 84.00, profit -32.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 17 0.0% 17.00 -17.00 -100.0%
draw 26 15.4% 26.00 18.25 70.2%
away 41 2.4% 41.00 -33.75 -82.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.1% 4.9% 61
10–20% 14.6% 8.6% 187
20–30% 24.6% 25.2% 258
30–40% 35.1% 30.9% 97
40–50% 44.4% 47.0% 83
50–60% 54.6% 59.2% 49
60–70% 64.6% 69.2% 39
70–80% 74.3% 85.0% 60
80–90% 84.2% 93.1% 29
90–100% 91.6% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
03.08.23 Mahar United FC vs Dagon FC 0-0 37% 43% -13.7 25% 27% -7.8 39% 43% -9.1
03.08.23 Shan United FC vs Ayeyawady United 5-1 72% 82% -12.7 16% 16% 1.6 12% 12% -2.8
04.08.23 Myawady FC vs ISPE FC 2-1 37% 42% -11.8 26% 29% -10.4 37% 41% -9.6
04.08.23 Yadanarbon FC vs Rakhine United 1-1 59% 70% -15.0 22% 23% -4.5 19% 18% 2.0
06.08.23 Chinland FC vs Hantharwady United 1-3 12% 12% -0.0 16% 17% -2.7 72% 82% -12.6
07.08.23 Yangon United vs Kachin United FC 2-1 84% 94% -11.2 10% 9% 19.1 6% 5% 17.8
20.10.23 Myawady FC vs Ayeyawady United 0-1 46% 53% -13.7 25% 28% -9.1 29% 31% -7.7
22.10.23 Kachin United FC vs ISPE FC 2-4 27% 30% -10.2 26% 29% -11.9 47% 53% -10.9
22.10.23 Yangon United vs Dagon FC 0-0 73% 84% -12.8 16% 15% 3.5 11% 10% 5.0
23.10.23 Hantharwady United vs Rakhine United 3-2 58% 68% -14.7 22% 23% -4.8 20% 20% -2.1
26.10.23 Ayeyawady United vs Yangon United 1-2 14% 15% -7.3 16% 17% -3.1 70% 79% -11.7
29.10.23 Myawady FC vs Rakhine United 2-3 50% 60% -15.3 25% 27% -8.5 25% 26% -3.0
30.10.23 Shan United FC vs Dagon FC 3-1 73% 88% -17.0 16% 14% 14.7 11% 8% 39.8
01.11.23 Yangon United vs Yadanarbon FC 4-0 69% 80% -14.2 19% 19% -1.1 13% 11% 9.6
03.11.23 Rakhine United vs Shan United FC 1-2 12% 12% 0.6 16% 16% -1.2 72% 82% -11.7
04.11.23 ISPE FC vs Dagon FC 0-1 43% 50% -13.2 26% 29% -9.9 31% 34% -8.9
24.11.23 Rakhine United vs Chinland FC 3-1 62% 74% -15.3 20% 20% 0.1 18% 17% 1.8
25.11.23 ISPE FC vs Yadanarbon FC 1-1 33% 37% -10.4 27% 30% -11.9 40% 45% -11.7
25.11.23 Shan United FC vs Mahar United FC 4-1 71% 84% -15.5 17% 15% 7.6 12% 11% 11.7
26.11.23 Hantharwady United vs Yangon United 1-2 21% 22% -7.5 23% 26% -11.0 56% 64% -12.0
27.11.23 Dagon FC vs Myawady FC 1-0 44% 52% -15.2 26% 29% -9.4 30% 31% -3.5
27.11.23 Kachin United FC vs Ayeyawady United 1-2 25% 26% -5.2 24% 26% -8.0 51% 61% -15.1
01.12.23 Ayeyawady United vs Hantharwady United 1-0 26% 28% -5.9 24% 27% -9.3 49% 58% -14.6
01.12.23 Yangon United vs ISPE FC 4-1 73% 85% -13.8 16% 16% 2.6 10% 10% 10.2
02.12.23 Kachin United FC vs Rakhine United 0-2 29% 30% -4.5 26% 29% -9.9 45% 53% -14.8
03.12.23 Chinland FC vs Dagon FC 1-4 11% 10% 6.9 14% 13% 5.6 75% 86% -12.7
04.12.23 Myawady FC vs Mahar United FC 4-2 40% 47% -12.9 26% 29% -10.6 33% 36% -8.7
04.12.23 Yadanarbon FC vs Shan United FC 2-4 21% 19% 9.2 23% 24% -5.7 56% 68% -17.4
07.12.23 Dagon FC vs Hantharwady United 0-3 34% 38% -10.6 26% 29% -10.2 41% 47% -12.7
07.12.23 ISPE FC vs Rakhine United 4-0 45% 51% -11.2 24% 26% -7.5 31% 35% -12.2
08.12.23 Ayeyawady United vs Yadanarbon FC 0-1 34% 38% -9.1 25% 28% -8.9 40% 47% -13.2
09.12.23 Shan United FC vs Kachin United FC 3-2 83% 93% -11.1 11% 9% 18.6 6% 5% 19.3
15.12.23 Dagon FC vs Kachin United FC 1-0 62% 72% -13.7 21% 22% -5.3 17% 17% -3.0
15.12.23 Rakhine United vs Ayeyawady United 2-2 37% 43% -12.4 25% 28% -9.2 38% 42% -11.1
16.12.23 ISPE FC vs Hantharwady United 3-0 33% 37% -10.6 26% 29% -9.9 41% 47% -11.5
17.12.23 Myawady FC vs Yadanarbon FC 3-1 45% 54% -16.0 26% 29% -10.9 28% 29% -3.5
18.12.23 Shan United FC vs Yangon United 0-0 34% 39% -12.8 27% 30% -12.1 39% 43% -9.9
06.07.24 Yangon United vs Rakhine United 2-0 73% 85% -14.3 17% 16% 3.8 11% 10% 13.2
07.07.24 Ayeyawady United vs Yadanarbon FC 1-1 35% 40% -11.5 26% 29% -11.0 38% 43% -11.6
07.07.24 Hantharwady United vs Dagon Port FC 4-3 51% 61% -15.9 24% 25% -5.8 26% 26% -3.1
07.07.24 Shan United FC vs Myawady FC 1-0 80% 93% -13.3 13% 11% 17.5 7% 4% 54.3
08.07.24 ISPE FC vs Mahar United FC 0-1 48% 56% -14.3 25% 27% -8.2 28% 29% -6.2
11.07.24 Shan United FC vs Dagon FC 2-1 74% 87% -14.6 15% 14% 10.5 11% 9% 15.7
12.07.24 Yadanarbon FC vs Mahar United FC 3-2 35% 39% -9.9 27% 30% -11.8 38% 43% -12.8
13.07.24 ISPE FC vs Rakhine United 5-1 58% 69% -16.0 21% 22% -1.7 20% 20% 1.5
13.07.24 Yangon United vs Myawady FC 5-0 70% 82% -15.0 18% 17% 3.1 12% 11% 14.4
14.07.24 Ayeyawady United vs Dagon Port FC 1-2 37% 43% -14.6 23% 25% -6.4 39% 44% -11.2
14.07.24 Hantharwady United vs Thitsar Arman FC 1-0 65% 78% -17.4 19% 18% 5.5 16% 14% 18.0
19.07.24 Dagon FC vs ISPE FC 2-1 37% 43% -13.2 27% 30% -11.8 36% 40% -9.2
21.07.24 Ayeyawady United vs Myawady FC 0-1 47% 56% -16.0 25% 27% -8.0 28% 29% -3.2
21.07.24 Dagon Port FC vs Shan United FC 2-4 6% 5% 22.7 11% 10% 10.9 83% 93% -11.0
21.07.24 Yangon United vs Hantharwady United 1-1 74% 88% -16.3 15% 13% 15.7 10% 8% 36.1
26.07.24 Dagon FC vs Dagon Port FC 4-2 57% 65% -12.5 22% 24% -7.2 21% 23% -10.3
26.07.24 Hantharwady United vs Yadanarbon FC 1-0 52% 61% -15.8 24% 26% -7.6 24% 24% -1.6
27.07.24 ISPE FC vs Ayeyawady United 1-0 50% 59% -14.8 25% 28% -9.3 25% 26% -3.8
27.07.24 Yangon United vs Mahar United FC 1-0 72% 85% -15.0 16% 15% 7.0 11% 10% 14.9
28.07.24 Thitsar Arman FC vs Shan United FC 1-4 7% 8% -3.9 13% 14% -8.1 80% 88% -9.7
29.07.24 Myawady FC vs Rakhine United 0-0 49% 59% -16.9 23% 24% -4.7 28% 29% -2.5
02.08.24 Hantharwady United vs Dagon FC 1-0 43% 51% -16.6 26% 29% -10.9 31% 32% -3.7
02.08.24 ISPE FC vs Myawady FC 2-0 52% 61% -15.7 25% 27% -7.9 24% 24% -0.5
03.08.24 Yadanarbon FC vs Rakhine United 3-2 54% 64% -15.7 24% 26% -6.8 22% 22% 0.8
04.08.24 Mahar United FC vs Dagon Port FC 3-3 52% 59% -10.8 23% 26% -8.7 24% 28% -13.2
04.08.24 Shan United FC vs Yangon United 2-2 60% 74% -18.8 22% 22% -0.9 18% 15% 19.2
05.08.24 Thitsar Arman FC vs Ayeyawady United 0-1 37% 43% -14.8 27% 30% -11.7 36% 38% -5.8
09.08.24 Dagon Port FC vs Myawady FC 2-1 39% 45% -14.7 26% 29% -10.0 36% 38% -7.6
10.08.24 Ayeyawady United vs Hantharwady United 0-1 31% 36% -12.9 27% 31% -12.5 42% 45% -7.7
10.08.24 Rakhine United vs Thitsar Arman FC 0-6 43% 51% -15.1 26% 29% -10.1 31% 34% -7.2
10.08.24 Shan United FC vs ISPE FC 3-0 71% 84% -15.0 18% 17% 1.8 11% 9% 19.8
11.08.24 Yadanarbon FC vs Yangon United 2-5 19% 21% -10.8 23% 26% -13.0 58% 65% -9.6
12.08.24 Mahar United FC vs Dagon FC 0-3 34% 38% -11.3 26% 29% -10.1 40% 45% -11.6
16.08.24 Dagon Port FC vs Rakhine United 4-3 71% 86% -17.6 18% 17% 7.5 11% 7% 54.6
16.08.24 Hantharwady United vs Shan United FC 0-2 16% 17% -9.0 21% 24% -12.7 63% 70% -10.1
17.08.24 ISPE FC vs Yangon United 1-3 18% 20% -7.5 20% 22% -6.8 61% 70% -12.4
18.08.24 Ayeyawady United vs Dagon FC 0-1 29% 33% -11.7 27% 30% -12.5 44% 49% -9.7
18.08.24 Yadanarbon FC vs Myawady FC 3-0 54% 65% -17.5 24% 25% -6.0 23% 22% 3.8
19.08.24 Mahar United FC vs Thitsar Arman FC 4-1 47% 54% -12.2 25% 27% -8.4 28% 31% -9.7
23.08.24 Myawady FC vs Mahar United FC 0-1 19% 19% 1.9 23% 24% -7.3 58% 68% -14.7
23.08.24 Thitsar Arman FC vs Dagon Port FC 3-3 27% 29% -9.2 22% 23% -4.3 52% 60% -14.4
24.08.24 Dagon FC vs Yadanarbon FC 1-1 59% 71% -16.5 22% 23% -4.0 19% 17% 6.9
25.08.24 Hantharwady United vs ISPE FC 3-1 45% 53% -14.1 27% 30% -11.5 28% 29% -4.9
25.08.24 Yangon United vs Ayeyawady United 4-1 69% 81% -14.0 18% 17% 0.9 13% 13% 1.4
26.08.24 Rakhine United vs Shan United FC 1-4 5% 6% -16.4 9% 10% -14.7 87% 93% -6.4
06.09.24 Yadanarbon FC vs ISPE FC 1-1 43% 52% -16.4 25% 27% -8.4 32% 34% -5.7
07.09.24 Mahar United FC vs Hantharwady United 2-3 34% 36% -5.9 26% 29% -9.6 41% 48% -14.8
08.09.24 Ayeyawady United vs Shan United FC 1-2 9% 9% 2.4 15% 15% -4.4 76% 85% -11.1
08.09.24 Dagon Port FC vs Yangon United 1-6 15% 15% -1.0 18% 19% -3.3 66% 76% -13.1
09.09.24 Rakhine United vs Dagon FC 1-5 11% 11% -7.2 14% 15% -4.2 75% 83% -9.8
09.09.24 Thitsar Arman FC vs Myawady FC 3-2 54% 65% -16.6 23% 24% -5.3 23% 23% 0.1
13.09.24 Dagon Port FC vs Yadanarbon FC 1-2 28% 29% -5.4 23% 24% -5.6 49% 58% -15.9
13.09.24 Mahar United FC vs Shan United FC 1-5 12% 11% 10.6 17% 17% -0.4 72% 83% -13.9
14.09.24 Thitsar Arman FC vs ISPE FC 1-4 34% 38% -12.6 24% 26% -7.9 42% 48% -11.5
14.09.24 Yangon United vs Dagon FC 0-0 60% 70% -14.6 22% 23% -4.6 18% 18% -0.0
15.09.24 Rakhine United vs Ayeyawady United 1-1 18% 18% -3.4 20% 22% -6.2 62% 71% -13.1
16.09.24 Myawady FC vs Hantharwady United 0-1 18% 19% -7.6 23% 26% -12.1 60% 67% -10.8
20.09.24 Mahar United FC vs Ayeyawady United 2-0 48% 53% -9.4 25% 29% -11.1 27% 31% -13.9
20.09.24 Yadanarbon FC vs Shan United FC 1-5 12% 12% -1.2 16% 17% -2.6 71% 81% -12.1
21.09.24 Myawady FC vs Dagon FC 0-2 11% 11% 0.3 19% 21% -10.6 70% 78% -10.8
22.09.24 Dagon Port FC vs ISPE FC 0-0 36% 41% -11.6 24% 26% -7.6 40% 45% -12.9
23.09.24 Rakhine United vs Hantharwady United 0-4 13% 14% -7.8 18% 20% -9.6 69% 76% -9.9
23.09.24 Thitsar Arman FC vs Yangon United 1-2 11% 10% 2.9 15% 15% -1.5 74% 84% -11.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 288 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

15 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Yangon United 1915.40
2 Shan United FC 1830.19
3 Dagon FC 1630.37
4 Yangon City FC 1626.69
5 Thitsar Arman FC 1483.31
6 Yadanarbon FC 1455.71
7 Hantharwady United 1420.43
8 Mahar United FC 1400.00
9 Chinland FC 1361.55
10 Dagon Port FC 1353.25
11 Rakhine United 1343.16
12 Myawady FC 1316.83
13 Ayeyawady United 1308.38
14 ISPE FC 1296.30
15 Yarmanya United FC 1067.27

Away Ratings

15 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Yangon United 1762.26
2 Yangon City FC 1754.05
3 Shan United FC 1735.09
4 Dagon FC 1568.47
5 Yadanarbon FC 1468.68
6 Thitsar Arman FC 1424.80
7 Ayeyawady United 1406.91
8 Dagon Port FC 1381.26
9 Hantharwady United 1373.36
10 Mahar United FC 1359.18
11 ISPE FC 1310.15
12 Rakhine United 1309.15
13 Myawady FC 1273.71
14 Chinland FC 1170.36
15 Yarmanya United FC 1071.14