ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 384
Avg Goals 3.28
Avg Home 1.73
Avg Away 1.55
Home Win % 41.9%
Draw % 18.5%
Away Win % 39.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 384
Avg Brier Score 0.4405
Pick Accuracy 68.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4440
Market Brier 0.4433
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 5
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 384 matches had at least one · staked 5.00, profit -5.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 5.7% 5.8% 208
10–20% 15.2% 12.3% 252
20–30% 24.6% 24.5% 269
30–40% 35.1% 27.6% 58
40–50% 45.2% 54.5% 66
50–60% 55.1% 52.4% 63
60–70% 65.2% 68.1% 72
70–80% 75.1% 80.6% 62
80–90% 84.9% 89.7% 68
90–100% 93.0% 88.2% 34
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
08.09.23 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 3-1 69% 78% -11.1 18% 19% -6.0 13% 13% -5.0
08.09.23 VV Alkmaar (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 1-1 32% 33% -4.4 26% 29% -10.7 43% 51% -15.7
09.09.23 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs Telstar (W) 5-0 86% 93% -7.0 9% 11% -12.0 5% 6% -19.1
10.09.23 FC Utrecht (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 4-2 43% 42% 0.8 25% 29% -13.9 32% 41% -21.2
15.09.23 ADO Den Haag (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 0-0 30% 31% -5.4 24% 27% -8.9 46% 55% -15.6
15.09.23 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 1-3 3% 4% -28.7 7% 9% -21.0 90% 95% -5.8
15.09.23 FC Zwolle (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 3-4 39% 45% -13.6 24% 27% -9.6 36% 41% -11.0
15.09.23 SC Heerenveen (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 0-1 51% 56% -9.8 23% 26% -10.9 26% 30% -14.6
16.09.23 Telstar (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 0-7 1% 2% -32.7 3% 4% -30.5 96% 99% -3.4
17.09.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 1-3 24% 29% -19.4 24% 29% -14.5 52% 55% -5.6
30.09.23 ADO Den Haag (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 1-2 67% 74% -8.7 19% 22% -12.1 14% 16% -14.3
01.10.23 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs Telstar (W) 0-0 95% 99% -4.2 4% 4% -18.6 2% 2% -27.3
01.10.23 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 3-1 88% 94% -6.4 8% 10% -15.8 4% 5% -22.5
01.10.23 FC Utrecht (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 1-0 58% 62% -6.8 22% 26% -13.6 20% 24% -18.2
01.10.23 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 5-0 79% 85% -7.4 14% 16% -14.1 8% 10% -18.7
01.10.23 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 5-1 88% 93% -4.7 8% 11% -22.9 4% 5% -28.0
06.10.23 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 0-2 1% 2% -30.6 3% 4% -24.8 95% 99% -3.6
06.10.23 FC Zwolle (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 2-0 14% 17% -19.7 20% 23% -14.4 66% 71% -6.6
07.10.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 0-1 11% 12% -11.6 17% 19% -8.7 72% 79% -9.8
08.10.23 SC Heerenveen (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 0-2 11% 14% -20.0 18% 22% -15.8 71% 76% -6.7
08.10.23 Telstar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 1-2 20% 23% -14.0 19% 20% -3.8 61% 68% -11.1
13.10.23 FC Utrecht (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 0-0 33% 40% -17.2 25% 28% -10.6 42% 44% -5.4
13.10.23 VV Alkmaar (W) vs Telstar (W) 0-1 51% 60% -14.5 24% 27% -9.5 24% 24% -1.4
14.10.23 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 1-0 43% 52% -16.2 26% 29% -10.2 31% 31% -1.0
15.10.23 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 1-0 17% 20% -13.5 23% 26% -13.3 60% 66% -9.6
20.10.23 FC Zwolle (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 1-0 66% 74% -11.4 19% 21% -7.9 15% 17% -9.1
20.10.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 0-0 58% 62% -6.8 23% 26% -13.8 19% 23% -16.1
20.10.23 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 4-0 52% 56% -8.2 23% 26% -11.3 25% 29% -15.6
20.10.23 Telstar (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 1-1 33% 42% -19.7 25% 29% -12.0 41% 43% -2.7
21.10.23 ADO Den Haag (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 2-3 9% 12% -28.6 13% 16% -19.0 78% 82% -4.4
22.10.23 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 0-4 18% 23% -20.2 21% 24% -13.1 61% 65% -6.0
04.11.23 SC Heerenveen (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 0-2 26% 31% -16.5 25% 29% -13.4 48% 52% -6.5
05.11.23 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 5-2 85% 91% -6.5 10% 12% -16.6 5% 6% -22.1
05.11.23 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 1-1 6% 7% -14.8 14% 17% -13.7 79% 85% -7.2
05.11.23 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 3-1 76% 83% -8.8 15% 16% -8.4 9% 11% -13.2
05.11.23 Telstar (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 0-2 17% 21% -21.1 22% 26% -15.7 62% 65% -5.5
05.11.23 VV Alkmaar (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 2-4 11% 14% -22.2 18% 21% -16.5 72% 76% -6.1
10.11.23 FC Utrecht (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 2-0 66% 72% -8.5 19% 22% -12.1 15% 17% -16.2
10.11.23 FC Zwolle (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 1-3 8% 11% -26.0 15% 18% -18.8 77% 81% -4.8
10.11.23 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 1-2 15% 18% -20.0 19% 22% -12.6 66% 71% -7.0
10.11.23 SC Heerenveen (W) vs Telstar (W) 1-0 46% 53% -13.0 25% 29% -11.2 28% 31% -7.9
11.11.23 ADO Den Haag (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 1-1 30% 36% -17.9 25% 28% -11.6 46% 49% -6.5
12.11.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 2-1 62% 66% -5.4 22% 26% -16.0 16% 20% -18.9
17.11.23 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 1-1 17% 20% -16.1 23% 27% -14.5 60% 65% -7.5
17.11.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 0-2 22% 25% -13.5 26% 30% -14.8 53% 57% -8.1
17.11.23 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 4-0 81% 86% -5.7 12% 15% -19.6 6% 8% -24.3
17.11.23 Telstar (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 1-0 9% 11% -23.4 15% 18% -16.4 76% 81% -5.7
18.11.23 FC Utrecht (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 2-2 57% 61% -5.3 23% 27% -15.3 20% 24% -19.1
19.11.23 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 0-1 36% 43% -17.0 26% 29% -11.6 38% 39% -3.3
24.11.23 ADO Den Haag (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 3-0 76% 81% -6.0 16% 20% -20.1 8% 11% -22.3
24.11.23 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 4-0 85% 90% -6.2 11% 13% -18.4 5% 6% -23.3
25.11.23 SC Heerenveen (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 1-3 7% 8% -16.0 16% 19% -15.9 77% 83% -6.9
26.11.23 FC Zwolle (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 2-0 40% 45% -12.1 28% 32% -13.9 32% 35% -7.4
26.11.23 VV Alkmaar (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 1-2 5% 7% -27.1 10% 12% -17.6 85% 90% -6.1
09.12.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 1-1 26% 30% -12.8 26% 30% -13.3 47% 52% -8.7
09.12.23 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 3-3 25% 31% -18.5 25% 29% -14.1 49% 52% -4.9
10.12.23 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 2-1 41% 44% -8.7 28% 32% -14.5 32% 36% -12.4
10.12.23 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 2-1 92% 98% -5.7 5% 6% -17.6 2% 3% -26.2
10.12.23 FC Utrecht (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 0-6 18% 20% -9.0 21% 22% -6.8 61% 70% -12.6
10.12.23 Telstar (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 0-4 15% 19% -19.4 21% 24% -14.6 64% 68% -6.8
13.12.23 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 2-1 82% 88% -6.7 12% 14% -13.7 6% 8% -18.9
15.12.23 VV Alkmaar (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 1-0 8% 10% -13.9 14% 15% -7.7 78% 85% -9.2
17.12.23 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 3-0 69% 75% -8.5 18% 21% -12.4 13% 15% -16.0
17.12.23 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 3-2 94% 98% -4.3 4% 6% -23.0 2% 2% -28.7
20.01.24 ADO Den Haag (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 2-1 65% 72% -9.7 20% 22% -10.8 15% 17% -12.5
20.01.24 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 6-1 89% 93% -4.6 8% 10% -22.8 3% 4% -27.3
21.01.24 Telstar (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 1-3 6% 7% -21.3 12% 14% -14.8 82% 88% -6.5
21.01.24 VV Alkmaar (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 1-1 24% 28% -15.0 25% 29% -13.6 51% 55% -7.2
27.01.24 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 1-1 66% 74% -9.8 19% 21% -9.0 15% 17% -11.7
27.01.24 FC Utrecht (W) vs Telstar (W) 4-2 73% 79% -8.4 17% 19% -12.3 11% 12% -15.2
27.01.24 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 0-3 6% 8% -18.1 13% 15% -12.7 81% 87% -7.1
28.01.24 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 1-2 38% 43% -9.6 26% 29% -11.8 36% 41% -12.8
28.01.24 FC Zwolle (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 2-2 62% 67% -6.7 21% 25% -14.7 16% 20% -17.6
28.01.24 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 3-1 53% 62% -14.0 24% 27% -10.0 23% 23% -2.1
31.01.24 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 2-1 71% 78% -8.7 18% 20% -11.7 11% 12% -12.2
31.01.24 SC Heerenveen (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 0-2 5% 6% -26.7 9% 11% -17.1 86% 92% -5.8
03.02.24 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs FC Zwolle (W) 3-1 65% 71% -9.3 20% 23% -11.6 15% 17% -13.1
03.02.24 Telstar (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 2-5 7% 11% -32.1 9% 11% -21.7 84% 87% -3.7
04.02.24 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 5-2 91% 96% -5.3 6% 8% -17.8 3% 3% -24.0
04.02.24 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 0-4 57% 67% -14.3 23% 25% -8.4 20% 20% -0.2
04.02.24 SC Heerenveen (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 0-0 25% 29% -16.3 24% 28% -12.2 51% 55% -7.2
04.02.24 VV Alkmaar (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 1-2 30% 35% -15.3 27% 32% -14.8 43% 45% -5.9
10.02.24 ADO Den Haag (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 2-0 65% 71% -8.5 20% 23% -12.6 15% 17% -15.1
10.02.24 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 4-0 78% 85% -8.1 15% 17% -11.8 7% 8% -11.0
10.02.24 FC Zwolle (W) vs FC Twente Enschede (W) 0-4 8% 10% -21.5 14% 16% -13.7 78% 84% -6.8
11.02.24 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) vs Telstar (W) 2-2 47% 53% -11.4 25% 29% -11.3 28% 30% -9.1
11.02.24 FC Utrecht (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 0-2 15% 18% -16.2 21% 24% -12.8 64% 70% -8.5
11.02.24 SC Heerenveen (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 0-0 7% 8% -21.2 13% 16% -15.8 80% 85% -6.5
14.02.24 Ajax Amsterdam (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 5-1 93% 99% -5.9 5% 6% -11.3 2% 2% -17.2
02.03.24 FC Zwolle (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W) 0-0 28% 34% -17.0 26% 30% -14.0 46% 49% -6.1
02.03.24 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 2-1 62% 68% -9.0 22% 25% -13.4 16% 19% -13.6
02.03.24 PSV Eindhoven (W) vs Fortuna Sittard (W) 3-0 46% 53% -13.8 26% 29% -11.7 28% 29% -5.1
03.03.24 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 0-3 37% 43% -13.5 25% 28% -9.7 38% 42% -8.5
03.03.24 Telstar (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) 2-1 29% 32% -11.1 26% 29% -11.6 45% 50% -9.4
03.03.24 VV Alkmaar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) 0-0 31% 34% -11.3 26% 29% -11.9 43% 49% -10.9
09.03.24 ADO Den Haag (W) vs Telstar (W) 4-0 82% 88% -6.9 12% 14% -13.6 6% 7% -16.3
09.03.24 Fortuna Sittard (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W) 0-1 72% 78% -7.7 17% 20% -14.2 11% 14% -18.1
09.03.24 SC Heerenveen (W) vs Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 1-0 40% 43% -7.7 28% 32% -14.4 32% 37% -12.9
10.03.24 FC Twente Enschede (W) vs PSV Eindhoven (W) 3-1 58% 65% -9.9 23% 26% -11.7 19% 22% -11.5
10.03.24 FC Utrecht (W) vs Ajax Amsterdam (W) 0-2 5% 6% -21.6 10% 12% -12.6 85% 91% -6.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 384 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

13 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Twente Enschede (W) 1919.69
2 Ajax Amsterdam (W) 1891.57
3 PSV Eindhoven (W) 1802.31
4 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 1677.67
5 FC Zwolle (W) 1567.14
6 VV Alkmaar (W) 1566.18
7 SC Heerenveen (W) 1500.11
8 De Graafschap (W) 1474.94
9 ADO Den Haag (W) 1473.75
10 FC Utrecht (W) 1472.98
11 Hera United (W) 1382.30
12 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 1236.43
13 NAC Breda (W) 1235.63

Away Ratings

13 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Twente Enschede (W) 1922.26
2 PSV Eindhoven (W) 1845.83
3 Ajax Amsterdam (W) 1808.21
4 FC Zwolle (W) 1597.13
5 Feyenoord Rotterdam (W) 1570.31
6 VV Alkmaar (W) 1536.43
7 De Graafschap (W) 1481.01
8 SC Heerenveen (W) 1455.44
9 ADO Den Haag (W) 1447.86
10 FC Utrecht (W) 1407.64
11 Hera United (W) 1317.49
12 Excelsior Rotterdam (W) 1251.11
13 NAC Breda (W) 1148.07