ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1083
Avg Goals 3.09
Avg Home 1.72
Avg Away 1.37
Home Win % 45.2%
Draw % 23.0%
Away Win % 31.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1083
Avg Brier Score 0.6004
Pick Accuracy 51.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6020
Market Brier 0.6005
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 1083 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.4% 16.7% 18
10–20% 16.6% 13.3% 377
20–30% 24.7% 24.8% 1387
30–40% 35.0% 35.8% 537
40–50% 44.7% 44.8% 453
50–60% 54.8% 53.8% 275
60–70% 64.6% 66.9% 154
70–80% 73.2% 81.8% 44
80–90% 80.4% 100.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag 0-0 51% 54% -5.2 24% 27% -9.8 25% 29% -13.6
11.08.23 FC Den Bosch vs FC Oss 1-0 44% 47% -5.8 26% 29% -11.3 30% 34% -12.7
11.08.23 FC Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2-2 26% 28% -7.9 25% 27% -9.1 50% 55% -8.8
11.08.23 FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam II 4-1 61% 66% -7.7 21% 23% -8.6 18% 20% -11.2
11.08.23 Leeuwarden Cambuur vs FC Emmen 2-2 43% 50% -13.3 26% 29% -10.0 30% 30% -0.3
11.08.23 Roda Kerkrade vs Helmond Sport 4-1 48% 50% -3.8 26% 29% -12.2 26% 30% -14.0
13.08.23 FC Eindhoven vs Willem II Tilburg 1-1 28% 30% -6.6 27% 30% -11.2 45% 49% -8.2
13.08.23 VV Venlo vs MVV Maastricht 1-3 58% 64% -9.2 22% 24% -8.4 20% 22% -8.7
14.08.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs FC Utrecht II 1-0 58% 65% -9.9 22% 24% -8.1 19% 21% -6.7
14.08.23 PSV Eindhoven II vs Stormvogels/Telstar 1-0 37% 40% -8.0 27% 29% -9.9 37% 40% -8.2
18.08.23 ADO Den Haag vs Roda Kerkrade 0-3 48% 50% -5.0 25% 29% -11.1 27% 31% -13.3
18.08.23 FC Emmen vs VV Venlo 2-2 56% 60% -7.8 24% 27% -10.5 21% 23% -9.3
18.08.23 FC Oss vs PSV Eindhoven II 4-1 34% 38% -10.5 26% 29% -10.4 39% 42% -7.0
18.08.23 Helmond Sport vs FC Den Bosch 1-0 55% 58% -6.0 24% 27% -11.7 21% 24% -13.2
18.08.23 NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 54% 59% -8.0 24% 27% -9.7 21% 23% -7.1
18.08.23 Willem II Tilburg vs FC Dordrecht 2-0 75% 80% -5.7 16% 18% -12.9 9% 10% -14.8
21.08.23 Ajax Amsterdam II vs De Graafschap 1-2 34% 37% -9.0 24% 26% -7.2 42% 47% -9.9
21.08.23 FC Utrecht II vs FC Groningen 1-0 21% 22% -7.5 23% 25% -8.8 57% 62% -9.4
25.08.23 De Graafschap vs FC Emmen 0-1 40% 43% -5.9 26% 29% -9.4 34% 38% -11.4
25.08.23 FC Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag 1-2 29% 33% -11.7 25% 29% -10.8 45% 49% -7.6
25.08.23 FC Dordrecht vs MVV Maastricht 2-2 46% 53% -12.7 24% 26% -7.4 30% 31% -5.0
25.08.23 FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda 2-0 38% 42% -9.9 26% 29% -10.2 36% 38% -7.5
25.08.23 Leeuwarden Cambuur vs Ajax Amsterdam II 4-2 72% 81% -11.2 16% 15% 3.9 12% 11% 3.5
25.08.23 Roda Kerkrade vs FC Oss 2-0 62% 67% -6.6 21% 24% -11.0 17% 19% -13.3
25.08.23 VV Venlo vs FC Utrecht II 4-1 60% 66% -8.4 22% 24% -10.2 18% 20% -10.9
28.08.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs Stormvogels/Telstar 3-1 45% 49% -7.0 25% 29% -10.8 29% 33% -12.6
28.08.23 PSV Eindhoven II vs Helmond Sport 2-1 40% 42% -5.2 26% 29% -10.1 34% 38% -11.0
01.09.23 FC Den Bosch vs PSV Eindhoven II 1-2 39% 43% -10.9 26% 29% -10.6 35% 38% -7.4
01.09.23 FC Emmen vs FC Dordrecht 2-4 66% 71% -6.5 20% 22% -11.1 14% 16% -13.0
01.09.23 FC Oss vs FC Groningen 0-2 18% 21% -13.3 22% 24% -11.3 60% 65% -6.5
01.09.23 FC Utrecht II vs Roda Kerkrade 1-0 27% 28% -3.3 25% 27% -8.6 48% 56% -12.8
01.09.23 Helmond Sport vs Leeuwarden Cambuur 2-1 25% 27% -8.2 24% 27% -9.4 51% 56% -8.8
01.09.23 MVV Maastricht vs Ajax Amsterdam II 2-1 43% 50% -13.5 24% 25% -5.5 33% 35% -4.9
01.09.23 Stormvogels/Telstar vs FC Eindhoven 0-1 42% 45% -7.4 27% 30% -11.7 31% 35% -10.6
01.09.23 VV Venlo vs De Graafschap 2-0 39% 42% -7.5 26% 29% -9.6 36% 40% -10.9
03.09.23 ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar II 4-1 47% 53% -10.3 26% 29% -10.4 27% 29% -7.6
08.09.23 Willem II Tilburg vs MVV Maastricht 2-1 68% 72% -6.8 19% 21% -9.8 13% 15% -12.4
09.09.23 Leeuwarden Cambuur vs FC Den Bosch 3-1 69% 74% -7.1 18% 20% -8.9 13% 15% -12.3
09.09.23 NAC Breda vs Roda Kerkrade 1-2 50% 51% -3.1 25% 29% -12.5 25% 30% -16.4
09.09.23 Stormvogels/Telstar vs VV Venlo 1-2 40% 42% -6.2 26% 29% -9.6 35% 39% -11.7
15.09.23 Ajax Amsterdam II vs FC Emmen 3-3 33% 37% -10.1 25% 27% -7.9 42% 45% -8.0
15.09.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs FC Eindhoven 0-0 39% 43% -7.7 26% 29% -10.1 34% 38% -9.1
15.09.23 FC Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht 3-2 43% 47% -8.5 25% 28% -8.5 32% 35% -8.7
15.09.23 FC Dordrecht vs FC Utrecht II 3-3 44% 47% -5.3 26% 29% -10.1 30% 34% -12.3
15.09.23 Helmond Sport vs FC Oss 1-1 54% 57% -6.3 24% 28% -12.3 22% 26% -13.7
15.09.23 PSV Eindhoven II vs De Graafschap 1-3 31% 34% -9.7 26% 29% -10.1 44% 48% -8.2
15.09.23 Roda Kerkrade vs Stormvogels/Telstar 3-0 59% 65% -8.5 23% 25% -9.6 18% 20% -8.1
15.09.23 VV Venlo vs NAC Breda 3-1 38% 41% -7.3 26% 29% -9.1 36% 40% -9.6
18.09.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs Ajax Amsterdam II 5-2 50% 56% -11.4 24% 26% -7.4 27% 29% -7.2
18.09.23 De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport 2-1 56% 58% -4.2 24% 27% -12.4 20% 24% -14.8
18.09.23 FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag 1-1 42% 45% -6.8 26% 29% -10.6 31% 35% -10.7
18.09.23 FC Emmen vs FC Utrecht II 2-0 69% 74% -6.6 19% 21% -11.5 13% 15% -14.4
18.09.23 FC Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven II 4-0 69% 76% -9.0 18% 19% -5.8 13% 14% -8.2
18.09.23 FC Oss vs FC Dordrecht 0-1 36% 39% -7.0 26% 29% -9.4 38% 42% -10.7
22.09.23 FC Dordrecht vs AZ Alkmaar II 0-0 43% 48% -10.3 25% 28% -9.1 32% 35% -8.7
22.09.23 FC Utrecht II vs Leeuwarden Cambuur 3-2 23% 26% -9.8 23% 26% -9.0 54% 58% -8.4
22.09.23 Helmond Sport vs FC Groningen 1-2 22% 23% -2.9 24% 27% -9.1 54% 60% -10.9
22.09.23 NAC Breda vs FC Emmen 1-3 44% 48% -6.6 26% 29% -9.9 30% 33% -10.7
22.09.23 PSV Eindhoven II vs VV Venlo 0-0 26% 28% -6.3 24% 26% -7.7 50% 57% -12.0
22.09.23 Roda Kerkrade vs FC Den Bosch 4-1 64% 69% -7.6 20% 23% -10.0 15% 17% -11.5
24.09.23 MVV Maastricht vs De Graafschap 1-2 31% 34% -10.7 25% 28% -9.3 44% 48% -7.6
25.09.23 Ajax Amsterdam II vs FC Eindhoven 1-1 39% 43% -9.7 25% 27% -7.8 36% 39% -8.7
29.09.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs Willem II Tilburg 0-2 28% 30% -7.8 26% 29% -11.1 46% 51% -9.1
29.09.23 De Graafschap vs Roda Kerkrade 0-0 42% 45% -6.6 26% 29% -9.7 32% 36% -11.1
29.09.23 FC Eindhoven vs FC Dordrecht 1-1 47% 49% -3.5 25% 29% -11.2 28% 32% -14.7
29.09.23 FC Groningen vs FC Den Bosch 0-3 76% 82% -7.3 15% 16% -6.4 9% 10% -9.3
29.09.23 FC Oss vs FC Emmen 0-1 21% 23% -10.4 23% 26% -10.8 56% 60% -7.3
29.09.23 Leeuwarden Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven II 3-4 68% 75% -8.2 18% 20% -8.2 13% 15% -11.0
29.09.23 MVV Maastricht vs ADO Den Haag 0-3 31% 35% -10.0 25% 28% -9.3 43% 48% -8.7
29.09.23 Stormvogels/Telstar vs Ajax Amsterdam II 3-2 42% 48% -11.3 25% 28% -9.0 32% 35% -7.4
01.10.23 VV Venlo vs Helmond Sport 0-4 58% 61% -4.9 23% 26% -11.5 20% 23% -14.9
02.10.23 FC Utrecht II vs NAC Breda 1-1 29% 32% -11.2 25% 28% -10.1 46% 51% -8.2
02.10.23 MVV Maastricht vs FC Eindhoven 0-1 37% 40% -7.9 26% 29% -9.1 37% 41% -8.9
03.10.23 Willem II Tilburg vs FC Oss 2-1 71% 75% -5.7 18% 20% -11.5 11% 13% -14.5
06.10.23 ADO Den Haag vs FC Oss 2-1 67% 72% -7.1 20% 22% -10.2 14% 15% -11.5
06.10.23 Ajax Amsterdam II vs VV Venlo 3-0 37% 41% -10.2 25% 27% -7.4 39% 42% -8.4
06.10.23 FC Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven 0-1 37% 41% -9.1 27% 31% -11.4 36% 38% -7.4
06.10.23 FC Dordrecht vs Leeuwarden Cambuur 5-2 29% 32% -9.0 25% 27% -8.5 46% 51% -9.1
06.10.23 FC Emmen vs Stormvogels/Telstar 2-0 65% 71% -8.2 20% 22% -8.9 15% 16% -8.6
06.10.23 Helmond Sport vs FC Utrecht II 4-0 59% 66% -10.1 23% 25% -9.1 18% 19% -4.9
06.10.23 PSV Eindhoven II vs MVV Maastricht 2-3 49% 55% -10.6 24% 27% -8.2 27% 29% -6.6
06.10.23 Roda Kerkrade vs AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 57% 62% -8.5 23% 26% -9.9 20% 22% -9.7
06.10.23 Willem II Tilburg vs De Graafschap 4-2 50% 53% -5.7 25% 28% -10.6 25% 29% -12.4
14.10.23 Stormvogels/Telstar vs MVV Maastricht 2-1 42% 47% -9.1 26% 29% -9.7 32% 35% -9.0
14.10.23 VV Venlo vs Roda Kerkrade 1-1 34% 34% -1.0 26% 29% -10.1 40% 47% -14.0
15.10.23 Willem II Tilburg vs FC Den Bosch 3-1 67% 71% -6.8 19% 22% -10.5 14% 16% -12.9
20.10.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs FC Oss 3-0 56% 61% -7.5 23% 26% -9.5 21% 23% -10.2
20.10.23 De Graafschap vs FC Groningen 2-1 35% 38% -8.7 26% 29% -9.2 39% 43% -8.4
20.10.23 FC Den Bosch vs VV Venlo 1-2 40% 45% -11.3 26% 29% -10.2 33% 35% -5.2
20.10.23 FC Dordrecht vs Ajax Amsterdam II 4-0 50% 57% -11.8 23% 24% -5.2 27% 29% -8.0
20.10.23 FC Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport 1-2 43% 45% -6.1 27% 31% -12.0 30% 34% -10.8
20.10.23 FC Emmen vs ADO Den Haag 2-3 45% 48% -6.2 26% 29% -10.4 30% 34% -12.3
20.10.23 MVV Maastricht vs Leeuwarden Cambuur 1-1 28% 31% -10.4 24% 27% -8.7 48% 52% -8.1
21.10.23 Roda Kerkrade vs Willem II Tilburg 0-1 44% 45% -4.2 26% 29% -9.8 31% 35% -12.6
23.10.23 Ajax Amsterdam II vs ADO Den Haag 0-0 28% 30% -6.3 24% 26% -6.7 48% 53% -10.8
23.10.23 AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap 3-0 34% 37% -7.8 26% 29% -9.0 40% 43% -8.3
23.10.23 FC Groningen vs FC Emmen 0-0 47% 50% -5.5 25% 29% -10.9 27% 31% -12.7
23.10.23 FC Oss vs FC Utrecht II 2-0 43% 48% -9.7 26% 29% -9.7 31% 34% -7.9
23.10.23 Helmond Sport vs FC Dordrecht 1-1 47% 51% -7.6 25% 28% -9.3 28% 31% -9.9
23.10.23 PSV Eindhoven II vs FC Eindhoven 3-4 25% 24% 2.6 25% 28% -9.0 50% 58% -14.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 1083 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Heracles Almelo 1930.09
2 NAC Breda 1873.20
3 Almere City 1806.46
4 RKC Waalwijk 1781.42
5 FC Emmen 1781.30
6 Roda Kerkrade 1773.97
7 Vitesse Arnheim 1773.31
8 FC Den Bosch 1759.81
9 VV Venlo 1730.98
10 FC Volendam 1726.06
11 De Graafschap 1722.05
12 AZ Alkmaar II 1705.36
13 FC Dordrecht 1674.15
14 FC Oss 1661.29
15 PSV Eindhoven II 1649.39
16 Helmond Sport 1642.68
17 FC Utrecht II 1641.21
18 FC Eindhoven 1631.49
19 Ajax Amsterdam II 1629.94
20 MVV Maastricht 1614.88

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Heracles Almelo 1890.77
2 NAC Breda 1832.31
3 FC Emmen 1752.01
4 RKC Waalwijk 1739.98
5 Almere City 1738.66
6 FC Volendam 1719.82
7 Roda Kerkrade 1703.53
8 VV Venlo 1692.75
9 Vitesse Arnheim 1690.20
10 FC Den Bosch 1667.70
11 De Graafschap 1651.22
12 AZ Alkmaar II 1631.76
13 FC Utrecht II 1617.22
14 MVV Maastricht 1611.16
15 PSV Eindhoven II 1610.20
16 FC Dordrecht 1605.64
17 Ajax Amsterdam II 1598.06
18 Helmond Sport 1591.76
19 FC Eindhoven 1587.72
20 FC Oss 1566.16