ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 944
Avg Goals 3.14
Avg Home 1.76
Avg Away 1.38
Home Win % 44.2%
Draw % 25.5%
Away Win % 30.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 944
Avg Brier Score 0.5591
Pick Accuracy 55.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5598
Market Brier 0.5595
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 33
Value Bet Hit Rate 9.1%
ROI (flat stake) -31.1%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 33 of 944 matches had at least one · staked 33.00, profit -10.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 33 9.1% 33.00 -10.25 -31.1%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.2% 5.9% 136
10–20% 15.7% 13.4% 462
20–30% 25.7% 26.1% 1065
30–40% 34.9% 36.7% 371
40–50% 44.7% 41.9% 289
50–60% 54.9% 58.2% 196
60–70% 64.5% 61.9% 160
70–80% 74.2% 78.8% 104
80–90% 83.8% 89.1% 46
90–100% 91.2% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 FC Volendam vs Vitesse Arnheim 1-2 26% 28% -6.0 26% 26% -0.0 48% 52% -8.2
12.08.23 Ajax Amsterdam vs Heracles Almelo 4-1 77% 81% -5.1 15% 15% 1.9 8% 9% -11.0
12.08.23 FC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 40% 41% -1.8 28% 29% -2.1 32% 36% -12.1
12.08.23 PSV Eindhoven vs FC Utrecht 2-0 69% 76% -8.8 19% 18% 6.7 12% 11% 1.1
12.08.23 SC Heerenveen vs RKC Waalwijk 3-1 55% 61% -8.8 25% 24% 1.1 20% 21% -4.7
13.08.23 Almere City vs FC Twente Enschede 1-4 18% 21% -15.7 24% 26% -6.9 58% 60% -1.9
13.08.23 AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles 5-1 63% 66% -4.4 22% 23% -3.0 14% 16% -10.8
13.08.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard 0-0 80% 85% -6.6 14% 12% 8.6 7% 7% -4.9
13.08.23 NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Rotterdam 3-4 63% 70% -9.3 22% 21% 4.7 15% 15% -0.1
18.08.23 Heracles Almelo vs NEC Nijmegen 2-1 39% 41% -5.2 28% 29% -1.5 33% 36% -8.7
19.08.23 Excelsior Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam 2-2 10% 11% -13.1 16% 17% -1.2 74% 77% -4.3
19.08.23 Fortuna Sittard vs Almere City 2-1 47% 52% -9.6 27% 28% -1.1 26% 26% -2.4
19.08.23 Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Volendam 4-1 57% 62% -8.7 24% 24% 1.0 19% 20% -5.6
19.08.23 Vitesse Arnheim vs PSV Eindhoven 1-3 19% 20% -5.1 25% 25% -1.0 56% 61% -7.2
20.08.23 FC Twente Enschede vs FC Zwolle 3-1 66% 71% -7.3 21% 20% 2.6 14% 15% -7.4
20.08.23 FC Utrecht vs SC Heerenveen 0-2 51% 55% -7.7 26% 26% 0.7 24% 25% -6.0
20.08.23 RKC Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar 1-3 18% 20% -10.4 23% 24% -2.0 59% 62% -4.8
20.08.23 Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam 2-2 21% 22% -3.5 25% 25% 0.5 53% 59% -9.2
26.08.23 Excelsior Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard 2-2 34% 36% -7.8 28% 28% -0.7 39% 42% -6.7
26.08.23 NEC Nijmegen vs RKC Waalwijk 3-0 54% 59% -8.8 25% 25% 0.7 21% 22% -4.8
27.08.23 FC Zwolle vs FC Utrecht 1-0 35% 36% -3.3 27% 27% 0.5 38% 42% -10.7
27.08.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Almere City 6-1 81% 87% -7.2 13% 12% 11.5 6% 6% -1.4
27.08.23 SC Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 43% 45% -6.4 27% 28% -1.5 30% 33% -9.7
01.09.23 Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen 1-1 47% 51% -6.3 27% 27% -0.5 26% 28% -7.1
02.09.23 Almere City vs FC Zwolle 1-2 32% 35% -7.8 28% 29% -1.9 40% 43% -6.5
02.09.23 Go Ahead Eagles vs SC Heerenveen 3-2 46% 51% -8.8 27% 27% 0.3 27% 28% -3.3
02.09.23 Heracles Almelo vs Excelsior Rotterdam 3-1 53% 56% -6.0 25% 25% -0.2 22% 24% -10.0
02.09.23 RKC Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven 0-4 9% 10% -8.5 16% 15% 2.8 75% 79% -5.5
03.09.23 FC Utrecht vs Feyenoord Rotterdam 1-5 22% 23% -2.5 25% 24% 2.1 53% 58% -9.5
03.09.23 FC Volendam vs FC Twente Enschede 0-2 15% 17% -8.3 21% 21% 0.9 63% 67% -5.4
03.09.23 Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Amsterdam 0-0 18% 21% -11.6 23% 23% -0.6 59% 62% -5.0
03.09.23 Vitesse Arnheim vs AZ Alkmaar 0-2 32% 36% -9.7 27% 28% -1.0 40% 42% -4.6
16.09.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam vs SC Heerenveen 6-1 78% 85% -8.2 15% 13% 13.5 8% 7% 1.8
16.09.23 Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam 3-1 58% 64% -9.0 24% 23% 3.5 18% 18% -0.2
16.09.23 Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht 1-3 36% 38% -5.2 28% 28% -0.3 37% 40% -8.6
16.09.23 PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen 4-0 80% 85% -6.0 13% 12% 8.8 6% 7% -6.2
17.09.23 AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 64% 68% -6.5 22% 22% 1.0 14% 15% -5.3
17.09.23 Excelsior Rotterdam vs Almere City 0-0 44% 50% -11.4 27% 27% 0.6 29% 29% -1.9
17.09.23 FC Twente Enschede vs Ajax Amsterdam 3-1 38% 42% -8.9 28% 28% -0.5 34% 36% -5.0
17.09.23 FC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 40% 42% -4.9 28% 29% -1.8 32% 35% -9.3
22.09.23 Go Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard 3-0 42% 45% -6.8 28% 28% -0.6 30% 32% -6.8
23.09.23 Almere City vs PSV Eindhoven 0-4 7% 8% -8.7 14% 13% 2.5 79% 83% -4.8
23.09.23 FC Volendam vs Heracles Almelo 2-2 33% 36% -6.6 28% 28% -0.8 39% 43% -8.2
23.09.23 NEC Nijmegen vs FC Utrecht 3-0 38% 41% -7.1 29% 29% -2.9 34% 36% -7.8
23.09.23 SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior Rotterdam 0-3 56% 61% -8.9 24% 24% 1.6 20% 21% -5.4
24.09.23 Ajax Amsterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam 0-4 32% 33% -5.4 27% 26% 0.9 42% 47% -9.9
24.09.23 FC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 0-3 21% 22% -3.9 25% 26% -0.6 54% 58% -8.3
24.09.23 RKC Waalwijk vs FC Twente Enschede 1-0 16% 17% -7.1 22% 21% 2.1 62% 67% -7.1
24.09.23 Sparta Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnheim 1-0 44% 49% -9.1 28% 29% -2.4 28% 29% -5.5
27.09.23 FC Twente Enschede vs Vitesse Arnheim 1-0 66% 72% -8.4 21% 20% 4.5 13% 13% -0.8
27.09.23 PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles 3-0 82% 86% -5.1 12% 11% 7.6 6% 6% -8.6
28.09.23 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles Almelo 1-1 75% 81% -7.2 16% 15% 5.6 8% 9% -4.0
30.09.23 FC Twente Enschede vs SC Heerenveen 1-0 69% 75% -7.5 19% 19% 2.3 11% 12% -5.5
30.09.23 FC Utrecht vs Almere City 0-2 60% 65% -6.6 23% 23% 0.9 16% 17% -5.5
30.09.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Go Ahead Eagles 3-1 81% 86% -6.0 13% 12% 9.3 6% 6% -5.3
30.09.23 PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam 3-1 92% 96% -4.5 6% 5% 24.5 2% 2% -6.5
01.10.23 AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard 4-0 68% 74% -7.3 20% 20% 1.2 12% 12% -4.5
01.10.23 Excelsior Rotterdam vs Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 28% 31% -7.7 28% 29% -2.4 44% 47% -6.0
01.10.23 Heracles Almelo vs FC Zwolle 2-1 39% 42% -7.1 28% 28% -1.0 33% 36% -8.5
01.10.23 NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse Arnheim 1-3 42% 47% -10.3 28% 29% -1.8 30% 31% -3.2
06.10.23 FC Volendam vs FC Utrecht 1-0 25% 27% -6.1 25% 25% 1.5 50% 54% -8.3
07.10.23 Go Ahead Eagles vs Heracles Almelo 4-0 51% 56% -9.7 25% 25% 1.9 24% 24% -3.6
07.10.23 SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen 1-1 44% 48% -8.2 28% 29% -1.6 28% 29% -4.2
07.10.23 Vitesse Arnheim vs Excelsior Rotterdam 0-0 53% 57% -6.6 25% 25% -0.1 22% 24% -9.1
08.10.23 Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar 1-2 38% 40% -4.9 28% 28% -0.4 34% 38% -9.1
08.10.23 FC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam 0-2 11% 11% -1.5 18% 17% 6.1 72% 78% -8.2
08.10.23 Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente Enschede 0-3 22% 23% -4.9 26% 26% -1.5 52% 57% -8.2
08.10.23 Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven 0-4 13% 14% -4.2 20% 19% 4.0 67% 72% -6.9
21.10.23 AZ Alkmaar vs SC Heerenveen 3-0 67% 71% -6.1 21% 21% -0.7 12% 13% -8.1
21.10.23 Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnheim 4-0 81% 87% -6.7 13% 12% 10.1 6% 6% -2.5
21.10.23 NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City 1-1 51% 54% -6.3 26% 27% -1.3 23% 25% -8.0
21.10.23 PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard 3-1 81% 85% -5.4 13% 12% 6.3 6% 7% -9.1
21.10.23 RKC Waalwijk vs FC Volendam 2-1 55% 60% -9.1 24% 24% 2.6 21% 22% -4.2
22.10.23 Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Zwolle 2-4 42% 44% -6.3 27% 27% -0.1 31% 34% -9.1
22.10.23 FC Utrecht vs Ajax Amsterdam 4-3 26% 27% -3.6 26% 26% 0.3 48% 53% -9.7
22.10.23 Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam 0-0 43% 48% -8.9 28% 28% -0.6 29% 30% -4.2
22.10.23 Heracles Almelo vs FC Twente Enschede 2-2 16% 17% -5.1 23% 23% -0.2 60% 65% -7.5
27.10.23 Vitesse Arnheim vs FC Zwolle 1-1 46% 49% -5.3 27% 27% -0.4 27% 29% -8.5
28.10.23 Almere City vs Go Ahead Eagles 0-0 33% 35% -7.2 28% 28% -0.5 40% 43% -6.5
28.10.23 Fortuna Sittard vs FC Utrecht 0-0 40% 43% -7.1 28% 29% -1.7 32% 34% -7.0
28.10.23 SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo 3-0 52% 57% -8.6 26% 26% 0.3 22% 23% -4.5
28.10.23 Sparta Rotterdam vs RKC Waalwijk 2-0 52% 56% -7.0 26% 26% -0.1 22% 24% -7.1
29.10.23 AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen 1-2 73% 78% -6.1 18% 17% 2.3 9% 10% -6.0
29.10.23 FC Twente Enschede vs Feyenoord Rotterdam 2-1 27% 29% -3.8 27% 27% -0.4 46% 51% -9.7
29.10.23 FC Volendam vs Excelsior Rotterdam 3-1 36% 40% -9.7 27% 27% 0.1 37% 39% -6.1
29.10.23 PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax Amsterdam 5-2 71% 79% -9.2 18% 16% 11.7 11% 10% 3.7
02.11.23 Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Volendam 2-0 76% 82% -7.3 16% 14% 9.2 8% 9% -3.0
04.11.23 Excelsior Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar 1-1 13% 13% -2.4 20% 20% 2.3 67% 72% -8.2
04.11.23 Go Ahead Eagles vs Vitesse Arnheim 5-1 45% 50% -9.5 27% 27% 0.2 28% 29% -3.1
04.11.23 Heracles Almelo vs PSV Eindhoven 0-6 8% 9% -9.2 14% 14% 4.3 77% 82% -5.6
04.11.23 RKC Waalwijk vs Feyenoord Rotterdam 1-2 7% 7% -2.9 14% 13% 6.0 80% 85% -6.0
05.11.23 Ajax Amsterdam vs SC Heerenveen 4-1 65% 70% -7.2 20% 19% 6.0 14% 15% -6.0
05.11.23 FC Utrecht vs FC Twente Enschede 1-1 24% 25% -3.4 27% 27% -1.1 49% 54% -9.1
05.11.23 FC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard 2-0 42% 45% -7.7 28% 28% -0.5 30% 32% -5.7
05.11.23 NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam 3-3 59% 65% -8.4 23% 23% 2.7 18% 18% -3.4
05.11.23 Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City 1-2 55% 59% -7.2 25% 26% -0.7 20% 21% -5.5
10.11.23 Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles Almelo 4-1 54% 59% -8.7 26% 26% 0.3 21% 21% -2.4
11.11.23 FC Twente Enschede vs NEC Nijmegen 3-3 71% 76% -6.5 18% 18% 1.6 10% 11% -6.5
11.11.23 RKC Waalwijk vs Go Ahead Eagles 0-1 30% 32% -6.2 27% 28% -1.3 42% 47% -9.0
11.11.23 Vitesse Arnheim vs SC Heerenveen 1-3 42% 43% -4.5 28% 29% -3.2 30% 33% -9.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 944 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ajax Amsterdam 2286.00
2 PSV Eindhoven 2271.59
3 Feyenoord Rotterdam 2255.57
4 FC Twente Enschede 2244.47
5 AZ Alkmaar 2211.80
6 NEC Nijmegen 2126.81
7 SC Heerenveen 2068.39
8 FC Groningen 2056.00
9 Go Ahead Eagles 2048.83
10 FC Utrecht 2004.47
11 Excelsior Rotterdam 1997.82
12 Sparta Rotterdam 1979.47
13 Stormvogels/Telstar 1919.87
14 Fortuna Sittard 1904.11
15 FC Zwolle 1902.25
16 ADO Den Haag 1897.76
17 Leeuwarden Cambuur 1893.93
18 Willem II Tilburg 1793.85

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ajax Amsterdam 2205.61
2 Feyenoord Rotterdam 2191.36
3 FC Twente Enschede 2189.04
4 PSV Eindhoven 2142.10
5 AZ Alkmaar 2135.29
6 NEC Nijmegen 2005.16
7 FC Groningen 1985.69
8 SC Heerenveen 1982.10
9 FC Utrecht 1947.72
10 Go Ahead Eagles 1944.10
11 Sparta Rotterdam 1916.79
12 Excelsior Rotterdam 1897.30
13 FC Zwolle 1861.51
14 ADO Den Haag 1856.07
15 Fortuna Sittard 1844.68
16 Stormvogels/Telstar 1840.83
17 Leeuwarden Cambuur 1825.18
18 Willem II Tilburg 1759.73