Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5

Countries 150

Status Live

Continent

Country

League

No cached league history dataset for this league yet.

Matches 188

Avg Goals 3.81

Avg Home 2.02

Avg Away 1.79

Home Win % 45.7%

Draw % 16.5%

Away Win % 37.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.

Home Team

Away Team

Margin %

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Rows Created0

Rows Ready0

Margin0.00%

Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Value edge threshold (relative %)

Flat stake (units)

Market weight (0–1)

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…

Matches Backtested 188

Avg Brier Score 0.5241

Pick Accuracy 59.6%

Source postgres

Raw Model Brier 0.5424

Market Brier 0.5157

Blended Model Beats Market? No

Market Weight 0.7

"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.

Value Bets Found 81

Value Bet Hit Rate 7.4%

ROI (flat stake) -38.3%

ROI Trustworthy? No

Before trusting this ROI:

The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.

Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 52 of 188 matches had at least one · staked 81.00, profit -31.00 units.

Side	Bets	Hit Rate	Staked	Profit	ROI
home	13	7.7%	13.00	-6.50	-50.0%
draw	29	0.0%	29.00	-29.00	-100.0%
away	39	12.8%	39.00	4.50	11.5%

Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.

Predicted Range	Predicted Avg	Actual Freq	Samples
0–10%	8.1%	0.0%	16
10–20%	16.4%	12.8%	109
20–30%	23.8%	21.4%	192
30–40%	35.5%	34.1%	82
40–50%	44.3%	48.1%	52
50–60%	54.3%	54.3%	46
60–70%	63.8%	76.7%	43
70–80%	75.2%	89.5%	19
80–90%	84.8%	100.0%	5

Date	Match	Result	HOME (1)			DRAW (X)			AWAY (2)
Date	Match	Result	Model	Price	Edge	Model	Price	Edge	Model	Price	Edge
30.09.23	Auckland United vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-1	37%	43%	-15.2	26%	29%	-9.9	37%	41%	-8.3
30.09.23	Christchurch United vs Wellington Phoenix II	2-0	58%	70%	-17.0	21%	22%	-1.8	20%	19%	6.0
30.09.23	Wellington Olympic vs Napier City Rovers	7-1	62%	78%	-20.4	21%	20%	2.7	18%	13%	33.1
01.10.23	Auckland City vs Manurewa AFC	1-0	71%	86%	-18.2	17%	15%	11.0	12%	8%	48.4
07.10.23	Auckland United vs Christchurch United	2-2	37%	42%	-10.7	25%	28%	-8.6	37%	43%	-12.1
07.10.23	Cashmere Technical vs Wellington Olympic	3-3	21%	20%	7.3	20%	19%	4.4	59%	72%	-18.5
08.10.23	Manurewa AFC vs Wellington Phoenix II	4-6	45%	54%	-16.9	24%	26%	-7.3	31%	32%	-4.9
08.10.23	Napier City Rovers vs Auckland City	2-4	8%	5%	64.8	15%	13%	11.4	77%	91%	-15.4
14.10.23	Auckland City vs Cashmere Technical	3-1	61%	73%	-16.4	21%	22%	-3.8	18%	17%	3.8
14.10.23	Christchurch United vs Manurewa AFC	1-2	55%	65%	-15.4	23%	25%	-7.2	21%	22%	-1.1
14.10.23	Petone FC vs Auckland United	0-1	18%	18%	1.3	21%	22%	-3.4	61%	71%	-15.2
14.10.23	Wellington Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland	2-2	52%	64%	-18.3	23%	24%	-3.9	25%	24%	2.9
14.10.23	Wellington Phoenix II vs Napier City Rovers	0-1	41%	48%	-14.4	25%	26%	-6.8	35%	38%	-8.0
21.10.23	Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic	1-3	33%	38%	-11.6	25%	27%	-8.1	42%	48%	-12.2
21.10.23	Cashmere Technical vs Wellington Phoenix II	2-1	55%	65%	-16.6	22%	23%	-4.1	23%	24%	-1.9
21.10.23	Christchurch United vs Petone FC	3-0	65%	79%	-18.7	19%	18%	4.9	16%	13%	22.8
22.10.23	Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Auckland City	1-2	18%	17%	4.5	22%	23%	-4.3	60%	71%	-15.3
28.10.23	Wellington Olympic vs Petone FC	2-1	78%	95%	-17.6	12%	8%	47.1	9%	5%	94.5
29.10.23	Auckland City vs Auckland United	3-2	60%	72%	-16.8	21%	21%	-0.9	19%	17%	8.3
29.10.23	Christchurch United vs Napier City Rovers	2-1	64%	77%	-16.4	18%	17%	5.7	17%	16%	8.4
29.10.23	Wellington Phoenix II vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland	3-5	26%	29%	-12.0	24%	26%	-8.9	50%	56%	-11.2
04.11.23	Petone FC vs Auckland City	0-2	9%	9%	9.1	14%	14%	3.7	76%	87%	-12.3
04.11.23	Wellington Olympic vs Christchurch United	5-2	60%	75%	-19.7	19%	18%	5.9	20%	18%	12.1
05.11.23	Auckland United vs Wellington Phoenix II	3-4	61%	74%	-17.2	21%	21%	-0.6	18%	17%	10.3
10.11.23	Christchurch United vs Cashmere Technical	2-4	45%	53%	-14.8	24%	25%	-5.6	32%	34%	-8.5
12.11.23	Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic	1-3	52%	64%	-18.1	22%	23%	-2.9	25%	25%	1.6
12.11.23	Manurewa AFC vs Auckland United	0-0	33%	38%	-14.7	26%	29%	-10.2	42%	45%	-8.6
12.11.23	Wellington Phoenix II vs Petone FC	3-2	60%	78%	-22.1	19%	17%	8.8	21%	17%	24.3
18.11.23	Auckland United vs Napier City Rovers	3-3	53%	62%	-15.7	23%	24%	-4.8	25%	26%	-3.8
19.11.23	Auckland City vs Christchurch United	2-3	60%	72%	-16.1	21%	21%	-1.6	19%	18%	4.2
19.11.23	Wellington Olympic vs Wellington Phoenix II	4-2	63%	76%	-17.8	19%	18%	4.5	18%	17%	9.5
22.03.24	Auckland United vs Auckland City	0-3	22%	23%	-4.1	23%	24%	-6.4	55%	65%	-14.2
23.03.24	Western Springs vs Birkenhead United	3-2	42%	50%	-16.4	24%	26%	-7.3	34%	36%	-7.0
28.03.24	Christchurch United vs Nomads United	3-0	66%	82%	-20.0	18%	16%	12.4	16%	12%	36.0
29.03.24	Birkenhead United vs West Coast Rangers	3-1	50%	62%	-20.0	22%	23%	-2.1	28%	27%	4.0
29.03.24	Manurewa AFC vs Western Springs	1-2	33%	38%	-13.1	24%	26%	-6.9	43%	49%	-12.5
05.05.24	Western Suburbs vs Stop Out Sports Club	5-1	76%	95%	-20.1	13%	8%	55.4	11%	5%	129.3
08.05.24	Wellington Phoenix II vs Island Bay United	2-1	60%	77%	-22.0	19%	18%	7.1	20%	16%	28.0
11.05.24	Auckland United vs East Coast Bays	2-0	60%	76%	-20.5	20%	19%	4.4	20%	17%	19.2
11.05.24	Melville United vs Western Springs	1-4	11%	6%	76.6	14%	10%	41.8	75%	93%	-18.5
11.05.24	North Wellington AFC vs Western Suburbs	1-5	11%	8%	39.9	14%	11%	27.3	75%	90%	-16.2
11.05.24	Stop Out Sports Club vs Wellington Phoenix II	1-1	25%	27%	-6.5	22%	22%	-2.7	53%	63%	-15.6
11.05.24	Wellington Olympic vs Miramar Rangers	3-0	59%	72%	-18.2	20%	20%	2.1	21%	19%	9.0
18.05.24	Auckland United vs Manurewa AFC	2-2	46%	56%	-16.4	24%	26%	-6.5	30%	31%	-5.4
18.05.24	Coastal Spirit vs Dunedin City Royals FC	2-1	62%	78%	-20.6	20%	19%	4.7	18%	14%	31.0
18.05.24	Miramar Rangers vs Waterside Karori	4-3	57%	71%	-20.0	21%	20%	3.1	23%	20%	13.2
18.05.24	Petone FC vs Wellington Olympic	1-5	10%	10%	4.8	14%	13%	5.8	75%	87%	-13.3
18.05.24	Selwyn United FC vs Christchurch United	1-5	10%	4%	119.0	13%	9%	47.8	78%	95%	-18.5
18.05.24	Western Springs vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-1	45%	51%	-11.8	25%	27%	-8.6	31%	35%	-11.8
18.05.24	Western Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II	2-1	68%	81%	-16.8	17%	15%	10.4	15%	13%	15.1
25.05.24	Bay Olympic vs Auckland United	0-1	29%	29%	-1.7	25%	27%	-7.2	46%	56%	-16.6
25.05.24	Christchurch United vs Nelson Suburbs	4-0	74%	93%	-20.0	14%	10%	44.0	12%	7%	82.7
25.05.24	Island Bay United vs Wellington Phoenix II	1-3	27%	30%	-11.3	21%	22%	-2.5	52%	61%	-14.3
25.05.24	Stop Out Sports Club vs Miramar Rangers	0-2	10%	6%	59.5	15%	12%	20.8	75%	91%	-17.1
25.05.24	Wellington Olympic vs North Wellington AFC	4-2	88%	99%	-11.2	8%	4%	72.7	5%	2%	112.5
25.05.24	Western Springs vs West Coast Rangers	1-2	73%	86%	-15.4	15%	14%	10.6	12%	10%	18.4
26.05.24	Napier City Rovers vs Western Suburbs	2-2	38%	47%	-18.8	23%	25%	-6.2	39%	41%	-5.0
29.05.24	Wellington Phoenix II vs Waterside Karori	2-2	38%	42%	-8.5	26%	29%	-10.1	36%	43%	-15.0
07.06.24	Birkenhead United vs Western Springs	4-1	35%	43%	-16.8	25%	27%	-8.5	40%	43%	-6.3
08.06.24	Auckland City vs Auckland United	0-0	51%	61%	-17.3	23%	24%	-5.2	26%	27%	-2.0
08.06.24	Cashmere Technical vs Christchurch United	4-2	35%	37%	-6.0	25%	27%	-7.7	41%	49%	-16.9
08.06.24	Wellington Olympic vs Napier City Rovers	2-0	56%	69%	-19.2	21%	21%	0.5	23%	22%	5.6
08.06.24	Wellington Phoenix II vs Miramar Rangers	2-0	17%	15%	13.7	19%	17%	6.9	64%	78%	-18.2
09.06.24	Coastal Spirit vs Canterbury Universities AFC	5-1	82%	96%	-15.2	11%	7%	52.3	8%	4%	97.3
09.06.24	Western Suburbs vs Island Bay United	5-1	69%	85%	-18.7	15%	12%	23.2	16%	13%	21.8
19.06.24	Wellington Phoenix II vs Wellington Olympic	3-5	13%	10%	33.0	16%	14%	15.9	71%	86%	-17.2
21.06.24	West Coast Rangers vs Birkenhead United	0-5	17%	15%	15.3	18%	17%	9.0	65%	79%	-17.8
22.06.24	Auckland United vs Tauranga City United AFC	4-2	54%	67%	-19.1	22%	22%	-1.4	24%	22%	7.0
22.06.24	Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Auckland City	1-0	33%	38%	-12.6	25%	28%	-9.4	42%	48%	-12.2
22.06.24	Miramar Rangers vs Island Bay United	5-0	67%	81%	-17.1	18%	17%	6.6	15%	13%	15.1
22.06.24	Nomads United vs Christchurch United	1-2	22%	22%	1.6	18%	17%	9.3	60%	74%	-18.8
22.06.24	Petone FC vs Wellington Phoenix II	2-2	37%	43%	-14.7	24%	26%	-7.7	39%	43%	-11.2
22.06.24	Selwyn United FC vs Coastal Spirit	2-5	13%	10%	24.4	14%	11%	28.7	73%	88%	-17.1
22.06.24	Western Springs vs Manurewa AFC	4-2	54%	65%	-15.9	22%	23%	-3.6	23%	24%	-1.5
22.06.24	Western Suburbs vs Wellington Olympic	0-1	19%	17%	8.5	19%	17%	7.2	62%	76%	-17.5
27.06.24	Christchurch United vs Ferrymead Bays	2-3	69%	83%	-17.5	17%	15%	10.6	14%	11%	24.3
28.06.24	Bay Olympic vs Western Springs	2-0	24%	24%	-0.8	22%	22%	-2.1	55%	66%	-16.9
28.06.24	Coastal Spirit vs Nelson Suburbs	2-2	62%	78%	-20.5	19%	17%	9.2	19%	15%	26.0
28.06.24	Hamilton Wanderers vs Auckland United	1-1	17%	17%	3.9	20%	20%	-0.5	63%	74%	-15.2
29.06.24	Birkenhead United vs Melville United	2-0	77%	93%	-16.5	13%	10%	28.8	9%	6%	61.0
29.06.24	Tauranga City United AFC vs Auckland City	0-5	19%	19%	-1.5	20%	21%	-2.4	61%	72%	-15.3
29.06.24	Waterside Karori vs Wellington Olympic	0-5	11%	9%	32.0	15%	13%	15.3	73%	88%	-16.6
29.06.24	Wellington Phoenix II vs North Wellington AFC	2-1	59%	71%	-17.9	20%	20%	1.6	21%	20%	5.2
29.06.24	Western Suburbs vs Miramar Rangers	2-1	43%	51%	-17.1	24%	25%	-5.7	34%	36%	-6.8
03.07.24	Auckland City vs Manurewa AFC	3-2	70%	86%	-19.1	17%	14%	16.1	14%	10%	43.8
13.07.24	Auckland City vs East Coast Bays	1-0	68%	83%	-17.9	17%	16%	9.3	15%	12%	24.7
13.07.24	Auckland United vs Western Springs	0-2	35%	40%	-12.8	26%	29%	-10.0	39%	44%	-11.4
13.07.24	Birkenhead United vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-2	41%	49%	-16.4	25%	28%	-9.1	34%	36%	-6.6
13.07.24	Cashmere Technical vs Coastal Spirit	0-2	53%	64%	-16.6	22%	23%	-3.4	25%	25%	-1.8
13.07.24	Petone FC vs Miramar Rangers	0-9	23%	25%	-6.4	22%	22%	-3.1	55%	65%	-14.7
13.07.24	Waterside Karori vs Western Suburbs	2-4	19%	19%	2.0	19%	18%	4.4	62%	74%	-16.2
13.07.24	Wellington Olympic vs Stop Out Sports Club	8-0	87%	99%	-12.6	8%	5%	57.1	5%	3%	86.8
14.07.24	Canterbury Universities AFC vs Christchurch United	0-1	11%	10%	14.0	15%	13%	10.1	74%	86%	-13.6
14.07.24	Napier City Rovers vs Wellington Phoenix II	2-0	84%	99%	-15.4	10%	6%	74.0	6%	2%	222.8
21.07.24	Coastal Spirit vs Nomads United	2-0	66%	83%	-20.2	17%	14%	17.7	17%	13%	29.6
21.07.24	Western Suburbs vs Petone FC	2-1	66%	80%	-17.9	18%	17%	8.8	16%	13%	21.4
24.07.24	Auckland City vs West Coast Rangers	2-1	79%	92%	-14.3	13%	11%	17.5	8%	6%	45.4
01.09.24	Canterbury Universities AFC vs Coastal Spirit	1-2	6%	3%	91.3	10%	6%	54.6	84%	98%	-14.2
01.09.24	Christchurch United vs Cashmere Technical	1-1	36%	42%	-12.6	24%	25%	-6.0	40%	47%	-13.8
05.10.24	Birkenhead United vs Western Suburbs	3-3	43%	53%	-18.6	24%	26%	-6.6	33%	34%	-3.4

Showing the 100 most recent of 188 evaluated matches.

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Home Ratings

11 teams

Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank	Team	Rating
1	Birkenhead United	1820.01
2	Napier City Rovers	1795.22
3	Cashmere Technical	1771.79
4	Auckland City	1753.00
5	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1704.90
6	Miramar Rangers	1693.97
7	Wellington Olympic	1674.87
8	Auckland United	1669.52
9	Auckland FC II	1596.14
10	Ferrymead Bays	1452.68
11	Wellington Phoenix II	1416.85

Away Ratings

11 teams

Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank	Team	Rating
1	Birkenhead United	1765.13
2	Auckland City	1739.61
3	Wellington Olympic	1701.37
4	Napier City Rovers	1696.60
5	Cashmere Technical	1682.30
6	Miramar Rangers	1675.25
7	Auckland United	1635.54
8	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1569.74
9	Auckland FC II	1532.22
10	Wellington Phoenix II	1435.80
11	Ferrymead Bays	1429.28