ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 707
Avg Goals 2.15
Avg Home 1.52
Avg Away 0.62
Home Win % 65.2%
Draw % 23.9%
Away Win % 10.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 707
Avg Brier Score 0.4996
Pick Accuracy 65.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5001
Market Brier 0.5026
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) 163.3%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 707 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit 4.90 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 6.90 690.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.4% 6.0% 117
10–20% 14.6% 11.5% 549
20–30% 24.9% 22.5% 724
30–40% 32.3% 37.9% 29
40–50% 46.7% 58.0% 50
50–60% 56.0% 63.0% 265
60–70% 64.5% 68.4% 313
70–80% 72.8% 72.2% 72
80–90% 82.6% 50.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.10.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Gombe United FC 2-0 51% 54% -4.3 29% 34% -15.6 20% 23% -14.1
07.10.23 Bendel Insurance FC vs Shooting Stars 2-0 64% 68% -5.7 25% 29% -16.0 12% 14% -16.8
07.10.23 Kano Pillars FC vs Katsina United FC 1-0 54% 53% 1.1 27% 33% -17.0 19% 24% -23.2
08.10.23 Gombe United FC vs Enyimba International FC 2-0 53% 56% -6.0 28% 32% -14.3 20% 23% -12.7
08.10.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Sunshine Stars FC 3-2 59% 60% -1.3 25% 30% -17.3 16% 21% -25.5
08.10.23 Remo Stars vs Enugu Rangers International FC 2-1 71% 78% -8.1 21% 25% -15.2 7% 8% -12.6
15.10.23 Bayelsa United FC vs Remo Stars 1-2 53% 58% -9.3 27% 30% -11.0 21% 22% -3.9
15.10.23 Enugu Rangers International FC vs Niger Tornadoes 2-1 55% 59% -5.8 27% 31% -12.8 17% 19% -8.3
15.10.23 Enyimba International FC vs Akwa United FC 3-2 61% 62% -1.8 26% 30% -15.1 14% 17% -18.1
15.10.23 Rivers United vs Kwara United 0-0 71% 74% -4.7 21% 25% -14.5 8% 10% -17.4
15.10.23 Shooting Stars vs Gombe United FC 2-1 57% 62% -8.7 28% 32% -12.5 15% 14% 4.5
15.10.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Doma United FC 0-0 64% 66% -2.1 25% 30% -16.5 11% 13% -18.8
21.10.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Bayelsa United FC 1-0 59% 62% -4.2 26% 30% -13.3 15% 17% -12.2
22.10.23 Akwa United FC vs Shooting Stars 0-0 70% 76% -7.7 21% 24% -10.7 8% 9% -7.1
22.10.23 Heartland FC Owerri vs Katsina United FC 1-1 62% 64% -2.4 25% 29% -15.0 13% 16% -19.7
22.10.23 Plateau United vs Sunshine Stars FC 1-0 68% 70% -2.8 22% 26% -16.1 10% 13% -23.8
22.10.23 Remo Stars vs Sporting Lagos FC 2-1 62% 64% -3.2 25% 30% -15.0 13% 16% -17.1
28.10.23 Bendel Insurance FC vs Akwa United FC 0-0 54% 55% -1.2 28% 32% -14.5 18% 22% -16.5
28.10.23 Gombe United FC vs Plateau United 1-0 47% 50% -5.3 29% 33% -12.9 24% 26% -8.5
29.10.23 Abia Warriors FC vs Heartland FC Owerri 1-0 62% 66% -5.0 25% 29% -13.0 13% 14% -12.7
29.10.23 Bayelsa United FC vs Kwara United 2-1 56% 58% -3.8 26% 29% -11.4 18% 22% -14.4
29.10.23 Shooting Stars vs Doma United FC 3-1 68% 74% -7.6 22% 24% -9.8 10% 11% -9.7
29.10.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Niger Tornadoes 2-1 60% 62% -2.0 26% 30% -14.9 14% 17% -17.7
01.11.23 Akwa United FC vs Gombe United FC 1-0 68% 74% -7.5 23% 27% -12.8 8% 9% -2.8
01.11.23 Heartland FC Owerri vs Rivers United 1-1 44% 43% 2.7 30% 35% -15.1 26% 31% -16.2
01.11.23 Kwara United vs Sporting Lagos FC 2-1 48% 48% 0.3 27% 31% -12.3 24% 29% -16.8
01.11.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Enyimba International FC 0-0 52% 54% -3.5 29% 33% -14.2 19% 22% -11.5
01.11.23 Plateau United vs Katsina United FC 1-0 63% 64% -0.7 24% 29% -17.1 12% 16% -23.4
01.11.23 Remo Stars vs Shooting Stars 3-0 59% 62% -3.8 26% 30% -14.0 15% 18% -16.2
02.11.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Enugu Rangers International FC 2-1 60% 64% -5.3 25% 30% -15.0 14% 17% -16.9
05.11.23 Akwa United FC vs Plateau United 0-0 58% 61% -5.1 26% 30% -13.2 16% 19% -12.6
05.11.23 Bendel Insurance FC vs Remo Stars 1-0 58% 58% -0.8 28% 33% -16.3 14% 17% -16.5
05.11.23 Rivers United vs Sunshine Stars FC 1-1 71% 74% -2.9 20% 24% -15.9 9% 12% -25.0
05.11.23 Shooting Stars vs Niger Tornadoes 4-1 62% 67% -6.6 25% 29% -12.4 13% 14% -8.6
06.11.23 Bayelsa United FC vs Lobi Stars FC 1-2 57% 59% -3.9 27% 31% -13.5 17% 20% -14.2
06.11.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Kano Pillars FC 3-0 56% 58% -3.4 28% 33% -15.4 16% 18% -12.5
11.11.23 Doma United FC vs Akwa United FC 1-0 46% 50% -7.2 30% 34% -13.8 24% 25% -2.7
12.11.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Sporting Lagos FC 1-0 65% 69% -6.2 24% 27% -12.6 11% 12% -9.8
12.11.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Bendel Insurance FC 0-0 56% 59% -4.3 27% 31% -13.1 17% 19% -10.7
12.11.23 Remo Stars vs Gombe United FC 4-0 67% 72% -7.1 24% 27% -11.9 9% 10% -3.3
12.11.23 Sunshine Stars FC vs Enugu Rangers International FC 2-2 59% 62% -4.7 25% 29% -12.2 16% 19% -14.9
18.11.23 Doma United FC vs Plateau United 1-0 51% 55% -5.9 30% 35% -14.6 19% 20% -4.1
19.11.23 Akwa United FC vs Remo Stars 3-2 55% 57% -3.0 28% 33% -14.5 17% 19% -12.3
19.11.23 Enyimba International FC vs Lobi Stars FC 1-0 60% 62% -4.5 26% 30% -13.7 15% 17% -14.0
19.11.23 Gombe United FC vs Niger Tornadoes 1-0 55% 59% -7.3 28% 31% -12.0 18% 19% -3.1
19.11.23 Rivers United vs Abia Warriors FC 2-1 66% 69% -5.1 23% 26% -12.5 11% 13% -14.8
19.11.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Heartland FC Owerri 1-1 69% 74% -7.2 22% 25% -10.8 9% 10% -7.9
22.11.23 Enyimba International FC vs Bendel Insurance FC 2-1 63% 65% -2.8 25% 30% -15.1 12% 14% -16.4
25.11.23 Heartland FC Owerri vs Enyimba International FC 0-1 52% 56% -5.6 29% 34% -14.2 18% 20% -5.9
25.11.23 Remo Stars vs Doma United FC 0-0 63% 67% -4.8 24% 27% -12.5 13% 15% -16.1
26.11.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Shooting Stars 2-1 64% 69% -6.7 24% 27% -12.3 12% 13% -10.2
26.11.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Akwa United FC 1-0 53% 55% -3.6 27% 31% -12.9 20% 23% -13.7
29.11.23 Enyimba International FC vs Remo Stars 0-1 64% 67% -4.2 25% 29% -15.1 11% 13% -15.0
02.12.23 Akwa United FC vs Kwara United 1-1 61% 62% -2.6 27% 32% -16.4 13% 15% -16.8
02.12.23 Bendel Insurance FC vs Lobi Stars FC 1-0 57% 61% -5.3 28% 32% -14.3 15% 16% -8.6
02.12.23 Doma United FC vs Niger Tornadoes 1-0 63% 68% -7.2 25% 29% -12.4 12% 12% -5.4
02.12.23 Enyimba International FC vs Sunshine Stars FC 1-0 68% 70% -4.0 23% 27% -15.2 10% 12% -19.4
03.12.23 Bayelsa United FC vs Abia Warriors FC 2-2 57% 61% -6.3 26% 30% -11.6 17% 18% -7.6
03.12.23 Gombe United FC vs Kano Pillars FC 2-5 55% 62% -11.5 27% 32% -13.8 17% 17% 0.5
03.12.23 Remo Stars vs Plateau United 1-0 63% 68% -6.7 24% 27% -11.7 13% 14% -11.3
03.12.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Katsina United FC 1-0 59% 61% -2.1 26% 31% -15.2 15% 18% -18.3
06.12.23 Abia Warriors FC vs Sporting Lagos FC 1-1 62% 66% -6.5 25% 29% -12.3 13% 14% -7.4
06.12.23 Heartland FC Owerri vs Bendel Insurance FC 1-0 47% 47% -0.6 31% 36% -15.4 22% 25% -11.8
06.12.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Gombe United FC 1-0 68% 74% -7.5 22% 24% -9.4 10% 11% -8.2
06.12.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Remo Stars 0-0 42% 41% 1.5 30% 35% -14.6 28% 32% -13.8
06.12.23 Sunshine Stars FC vs Shooting Stars 1-0 57% 59% -3.7 27% 32% -14.2 16% 19% -13.0
10.12.23 Akwa United FC vs Lobi Stars FC 1-0 57% 59% -2.9 28% 33% -15.9 15% 17% -14.0
10.12.23 Gombe United FC vs Heartland FC Owerri 2-0 56% 59% -4.2 28% 32% -14.2 16% 18% -10.7
10.12.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Plateau United 2-3 53% 55% -3.5 30% 35% -15.5 17% 19% -8.4
10.12.23 Remo Stars vs Kwara United 2-0 72% 77% -6.2 20% 24% -12.9 7% 9% -14.0
14.12.23 Rivers United vs Bayelsa United FC 2-0 71% 75% -5.6 22% 26% -15.5 7% 8% -11.9
17.12.23 Heartland FC Owerri vs Akwa United FC 1-0 56% 58% -4.3 28% 33% -14.7 16% 19% -11.5
17.12.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Doma United FC 2-1 64% 69% -7.0 24% 28% -12.3 12% 12% -8.0
17.12.23 Sunshine Stars FC vs Gombe United FC 1-1 66% 69% -5.6 23% 27% -12.1 11% 12% -11.9
20.12.23 Doma United FC vs Heartland FC Owerri 1-0 68% 73% -7.5 24% 28% -13.6 8% 8% 1.6
21.12.23 Akwa United FC vs Sunshine Stars FC 0-0 60% 62% -3.8 26% 30% -14.2 14% 17% -16.0
21.12.23 Gombe United FC vs Katsina United FC 1-0 56% 58% -2.9 28% 32% -14.2 16% 18% -12.6
21.12.23 Niger Tornadoes vs Kano Pillars FC 1-0 59% 59% 0.9 26% 32% -16.8 14% 18% -21.6
21.12.23 Remo Stars vs Lobi Stars FC 2-0 65% 68% -5.1 24% 28% -13.7 11% 14% -15.0
21.12.23 Sporting Lagos FC vs Bayelsa United FC 1-1 64% 68% -6.1 24% 27% -11.7 13% 14% -13.3
27.12.23 Sunshine Stars FC vs Doma United FC 2-0 58% 62% -6.6 27% 31% -13.4 15% 16% -6.8
28.12.23 Abia Warriors FC vs Gombe United FC 3-1 66% 70% -6.8 23% 26% -10.4 11% 12% -9.2
28.12.23 Bayelsa United FC vs Enyimba International FC 1-2 59% 65% -9.4 23% 25% -6.6 18% 19% -7.7
28.12.23 Enugu Rangers International FC vs Shooting Stars 2-0 61% 67% -7.9 25% 28% -10.6 13% 14% -1.9
28.12.23 Heartland FC Owerri vs Remo Stars 3-1 51% 55% -7.7 28% 32% -13.1 21% 23% -6.4
28.12.23 Kano Pillars FC vs Kwara United 2-1 66% 71% -7.1 23% 26% -11.8 10% 11% -8.7
28.12.23 Lobi Stars FC vs Niger Tornadoes 1-0 76% 83% -8.8 17% 18% -5.4 7% 7% -8.7
28.12.23 Plateau United vs Sporting Lagos FC 1-0 71% 78% -9.0 21% 22% -7.7 8% 9% -1.6
28.12.23 Rivers United vs Bendel Insurance FC 1-1 65% 68% -4.0 25% 29% -15.2 10% 11% -12.5
06.01.24 Doma United FC vs Katsina United FC 2-0 64% 67% -4.7 25% 29% -14.3 12% 14% -14.1
07.01.24 Akwa United FC vs Abia Warriors FC 3-1 61% 65% -5.5 25% 28% -12.4 14% 17% -13.8
07.01.24 Enyimba International FC vs Sporting Lagos FC 2-0 70% 76% -8.0 21% 23% -8.8 9% 10% -7.7
07.01.24 Gombe United FC vs Rivers United 1-1 41% 43% -4.7 31% 36% -14.9 28% 29% -4.8
07.01.24 Niger Tornadoes vs Heartland FC Owerri 3-2 64% 72% -10.6 24% 27% -11.3 12% 12% -0.4
07.01.24 Remo Stars vs Sunshine Stars FC 2-0 64% 66% -3.5 24% 27% -13.4 13% 16% -18.3
10.01.24 Plateau United vs Rivers United 3-2 62% 68% -9.3 26% 30% -12.7 12% 11% 6.8
13.01.24 Abia Warriors FC vs Doma United FC 3-0 59% 62% -6.4 27% 30% -12.3 15% 16% -6.0
13.01.24 Enugu Rangers International FC vs Gombe United FC 4-1 65% 70% -8.2 24% 27% -11.1 11% 12% -3.7
13.01.24 Plateau United vs Enyimba International FC 1-0 59% 65% -7.8 26% 30% -12.3 14% 15% -4.1
13.01.24 Sunshine Stars FC vs Niger Tornadoes 0-0 60% 62% -3.7 26% 30% -13.7 14% 16% -14.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 707 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

26 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Rivers United 1842.66
2 Doma United FC 1816.31
3 Akwa United FC 1807.52
4 Enugu Rangers International FC 1806.50
5 Ikorodu City 1796.97
6 Nasarawa United FC 1791.68
7 Abia Warriors FC 1790.58
8 Shooting Stars 1777.39
9 Bendel Insurance FC 1774.53
10 El Kanemi Warriors 1758.27
11 Kano Pillars FC 1756.63
12 Niger Tornadoes 1755.92
13 Kwara United 1752.11
14 Remo Stars 1750.82
15 Sporting Lagos FC 1747.09
16 Plateau United 1737.40
17 Enyimba International FC 1730.06
18 Bayelsa United FC 1719.30
19 Wikki Tourists 1713.46
20 Heartland FC Owerri 1713.05
21 Warri Wolves FC 1686.82
22 Katsina United FC 1686.43
23 Kun Khalifa 1667.61
24 Sunshine Stars FC 1627.45
25 Gombe United FC 1429.08
26 Lobi Stars FC 1359.47

Away Ratings

26 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Rivers United 1616.55
2 Remo Stars 1572.57
3 Bendel Insurance FC 1557.97
4 Sunshine Stars FC 1556.54
5 Ikorodu City 1553.51
6 Nasarawa United FC 1536.32
7 Akwa United FC 1528.41
8 Abia Warriors FC 1526.51
9 Doma United FC 1512.93
10 Wikki Tourists 1509.38
11 Enyimba International FC 1507.45
12 Enugu Rangers International FC 1496.78
13 Niger Tornadoes 1495.32
14 Heartland FC Owerri 1494.64
15 Shooting Stars 1481.88
16 Kano Pillars FC 1475.87
17 Bayelsa United FC 1469.05
18 Kwara United 1448.78
19 El Kanemi Warriors 1446.28
20 Plateau United 1445.06
21 Warri Wolves FC 1439.96
22 Katsina United FC 1423.14
23 Kun Khalifa 1422.82
24 Sporting Lagos FC 1413.70
25 Lobi Stars FC 1338.42
26 Gombe United FC 1281.29