ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 695
Avg Goals 3.06
Avg Home 1.71
Avg Away 1.35
Home Win % 46.8%
Draw % 21.2%
Away Win % 32.1%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 695
Avg Brier Score 0.5713
Pick Accuracy 54.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5773
Market Brier 0.5704
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 695 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.5% 4.8% 42
10–20% 16.1% 14.2% 330
20–30% 24.4% 23.4% 813
30–40% 35.0% 37.1% 286
40–50% 44.7% 48.5% 235
50–60% 54.8% 51.4% 185
60–70% 64.2% 68.4% 117
70–80% 73.6% 73.3% 60
80–90% 83.8% 100.0% 16
90–100% 94.2% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
19.07.23 Lilleström SK vs Aalesunds FK 5-1 71% 75% -5.8 17% 19% -9.5 12% 12% -1.7
22.07.23 Molde FK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 5-1 64% 69% -8.4 19% 20% -5.5 17% 17% 0.4
23.07.23 FK Haugesund vs Lilleström SK 1-0 28% 31% -10.2 25% 29% -12.4 47% 49% -2.9
23.07.23 Ham-Kam vs Stabaek IF 3-2 40% 43% -6.9 27% 30% -12.4 33% 34% -2.6
23.07.23 Odd Grenland vs Valerenga Oslo 2-1 39% 43% -9.8 27% 30% -12.3 34% 34% 0.9
23.07.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs FK Bodö/Glimt 2-5 12% 14% -13.2 18% 20% -12.1 70% 73% -4.1
23.07.23 Strømsgodset vs Rosenborg Trondheim 0-1 36% 38% -6.1 25% 29% -11.1 38% 41% -5.8
23.07.23 Tromsö IL vs SK Brann Bergen 3-1 31% 35% -11.4 26% 29% -12.5 43% 43% -0.2
24.07.23 Viking Stavanger vs Aalesunds FK 3-1 74% 81% -8.2 15% 16% -4.3 11% 10% 6.7
29.07.23 Stabaek IF vs Molde FK 0-1 24% 27% -10.7 25% 29% -12.8 51% 51% -0.7
29.07.23 Valerenga Oslo vs Sandefjord Fotball 2-3 63% 68% -7.6 20% 22% -9.6 17% 17% -2.0
30.07.23 Aalesunds FK vs Strømsgodset 1-0 39% 43% -11.3 25% 29% -11.1 36% 36% 0.9
30.07.23 FK Bodö/Glimt vs Tromsö IL 0-2 71% 76% -6.0 17% 19% -10.4 12% 12% -3.5
30.07.23 Lilleström SK vs Ham-Kam 3-1 63% 67% -6.2 20% 23% -10.6 17% 17% -4.0
30.07.23 Rosenborg Trondheim vs Odd Grenland 3-2 53% 57% -6.9 24% 28% -12.2 22% 23% -1.4
30.07.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs FK Haugesund 2-1 64% 70% -8.0 19% 21% -7.9 16% 17% -1.0
30.07.23 SK Brann Bergen vs Viking Stavanger 0-2 50% 54% -8.0 23% 26% -9.2 27% 28% -2.8
05.08.23 Strømsgodset vs Valerenga Oslo 1-3 35% 37% -5.4 26% 29% -11.4 39% 41% -4.7
06.08.23 FK Haugesund vs Rosenborg Trondheim 1-2 36% 40% -8.8 26% 30% -12.6 37% 38% -1.9
06.08.23 Ham-Kam vs SK Brann Bergen 0-2 25% 28% -10.3 24% 27% -11.2 51% 53% -3.3
06.08.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 5-1 22% 24% -10.7 22% 24% -9.4 57% 59% -3.7
06.08.23 Tromsö IL vs Lilleström SK 3-1 40% 44% -9.0 26% 30% -12.6 33% 33% -0.8
06.08.23 Viking Stavanger vs FK Bodö/Glimt 3-2 33% 37% -10.6 23% 26% -8.4 43% 44% -2.4
12.08.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs Molde FK 2-2 16% 19% -16.5 20% 24% -14.5 64% 65% -1.2
12.08.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Strømsgodset 1-2 63% 67% -6.4 20% 22% -9.0 17% 18% -4.1
13.08.23 Aalesunds FK vs Ham-Kam 0-2 42% 48% -11.5 25% 28% -10.2 33% 32% 2.1
13.08.23 Lilleström SK vs Viking Stavanger 1-3 41% 44% -7.5 24% 27% -9.8 35% 36% -5.0
13.08.23 Valerenga Oslo vs FK Haugesund 1-1 59% 64% -7.6 22% 24% -9.9 19% 19% 0.6
19.08.23 Molde FK vs Valerenga Oslo 0-0 61% 65% -6.6 21% 23% -9.2 18% 18% -0.9
19.08.23 Odd Grenland vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-3 33% 37% -12.0 25% 28% -11.3 43% 43% -1.6
20.08.23 FK Haugesund vs FK Bodö/Glimt 1-3 16% 18% -13.9 20% 23% -12.6 64% 66% -2.6
20.08.23 Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg Trondheim 3-0 35% 38% -7.4 25% 29% -11.2 40% 42% -4.7
20.08.23 SK Brann Bergen vs Aalesunds FK 5-1 73% 79% -8.6 16% 16% -2.6 12% 11% 6.5
20.08.23 Strømsgodset vs Lilleström SK 1-2 29% 30% -5.7 25% 28% -10.3 46% 49% -4.7
20.08.23 Tromsö IL vs Sandefjord Fotball 1-0 65% 69% -6.4 20% 22% -10.6 15% 15% -1.8
20.08.23 Viking Stavanger vs Stabaek IF 1-0 65% 70% -7.2 19% 21% -7.7 16% 15% 1.9
26.08.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromsö IL 4-0 48% 51% -6.9 24% 27% -9.9 28% 29% -2.2
27.08.23 Rosenborg Trondheim vs Aalesunds FK 4-0 64% 71% -9.1 20% 21% -7.4 16% 15% 4.3
27.08.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs FK Haugesund 0-0 43% 48% -8.8 25% 29% -11.0 31% 31% -0.4
27.08.23 Valerenga Oslo vs Odd Grenland 2-2 55% 58% -6.1 24% 27% -11.6 22% 22% -1.1
02.09.23 Viking Stavanger vs Valerenga Oslo 1-1 58% 62% -7.5 22% 24% -9.1 21% 21% -1.6
03.09.23 Aalesunds FK vs Lilleström SK 1-1 22% 25% -11.3 23% 26% -11.5 55% 57% -3.5
03.09.23 FK Haugesund vs Molde FK 1-2 19% 21% -8.7 22% 24% -10.5 59% 61% -3.9
03.09.23 Ham-Kam vs FK Bodö/Glimt 4-4 18% 20% -9.6 20% 22% -9.0 62% 65% -4.3
03.09.23 Odd Grenland vs Sandefjord Fotball 3-2 51% 54% -6.5 24% 27% -10.9 25% 26% -3.6
03.09.23 SK Brann Bergen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 56% 63% -11.2 21% 22% -5.4 23% 22% 4.7
03.09.23 Tromsö IL vs Rosenborg Trondheim 3-1 47% 49% -4.6 26% 30% -12.8 27% 28% -2.6
16.09.23 FK Haugesund vs Viking Stavanger 0-2 21% 24% -10.0 23% 26% -11.2 56% 58% -3.5
16.09.23 Molde FK vs Odd Grenland 4-1 73% 78% -6.2 17% 18% -9.2 11% 11% -0.0
16.09.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs Strømsgodset 2-0 40% 43% -8.0 25% 29% -11.1 35% 36% -3.2
17.09.23 Rosenborg Trondheim vs FK Bodö/Glimt 1-1 24% 26% -9.5 23% 25% -9.9 54% 56% -5.0
17.09.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lilleström SK 3-1 49% 55% -10.9 24% 26% -8.3 28% 27% 3.0
17.09.23 Stabaek IF vs SK Brann Bergen 0-1 25% 27% -8.1 24% 26% -10.4 52% 54% -4.6
17.09.23 Tromsö IL vs Ham-Kam 2-1 63% 68% -6.8 21% 24% -12.2 16% 16% -2.1
17.09.23 Valerenga Oslo vs Aalesunds FK 3-1 65% 70% -7.0 20% 22% -9.6 15% 15% -0.4
23.09.23 Aalesunds FK vs Stabaek IF 1-1 38% 42% -9.5 26% 29% -11.8 36% 36% -1.3
24.09.23 FK Bodö/Glimt vs Valerenga Oslo 4-2 71% 76% -7.0 16% 17% -5.6 13% 12% 0.7
24.09.23 Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 27% 30% -11.6 23% 25% -9.2 50% 52% -2.5
24.09.23 Lilleström SK vs Rosenborg Trondheim 3-0 53% 56% -6.4 23% 26% -10.8 24% 25% -4.1
24.09.23 SK Brann Bergen vs Tromsö IL 2-1 53% 56% -6.7 24% 27% -11.3 23% 24% -2.1
24.09.23 Strømsgodset vs Molde FK 1-1 21% 23% -8.7 22% 24% -9.8 57% 60% -4.4
24.09.23 Viking Stavanger vs Sandefjord Fotball 4-3 72% 77% -6.2 16% 17% -5.8 12% 12% -2.6
30.09.23 Stabaek IF vs Tromsö IL 0-1 28% 29% -6.1 27% 31% -13.4 46% 48% -4.0
01.10.23 FK Bodö/Glimt vs Strømsgodset 2-0 82% 86% -5.0 11% 12% -9.0 7% 7% -6.3
01.10.23 Lilleström SK vs SK Brann Bergen 0-2 38% 41% -7.5 25% 29% -11.1 37% 38% -4.3
01.10.23 Molde FK vs Viking Stavanger 4-0 51% 56% -9.5 23% 25% -8.7 26% 26% -1.1
01.10.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs Valerenga Oslo 1-2 32% 35% -8.5 26% 29% -12.1 42% 43% -3.3
04.10.23 Stabaek IF vs Ham-Kam 5-2 48% 51% -5.3 25% 29% -12.2 27% 29% -5.2
07.10.23 Odd Grenland vs Viking Stavanger 1-1 26% 29% -11.1 24% 27% -11.4 50% 51% -2.7
08.10.23 Molde FK vs FK Bodö/Glimt 1-3 42% 48% -11.0 24% 26% -8.7 34% 33% 0.8
08.10.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs Ham-Kam 0-1 48% 52% -7.3 24% 27% -9.7 28% 29% -2.4
08.10.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg Trondheim 5-2 55% 60% -7.8 22% 24% -8.6 23% 23% -1.1
08.10.23 Stabaek IF vs Lilleström SK 1-0 37% 42% -10.3 26% 29% -11.6 37% 36% 0.8
08.10.23 Tromsö IL vs Aalesunds FK 1-2 71% 76% -6.6 17% 19% -9.5 11% 11% 0.5
08.10.23 Valerenga Oslo vs SK Brann Bergen 1-2 35% 38% -8.7 26% 29% -11.4 39% 39% -1.0
21.10.23 FK Bodö/Glimt vs Sandefjord Fotball 4-3 84% 89% -5.5 10% 11% -4.6 6% 6% 0.6
21.10.23 SK Brann Bergen vs Molde FK 3-2 40% 43% -8.7 26% 29% -11.7 34% 35% -1.5
22.10.23 Aalesunds FK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 23% 26% -12.9 22% 24% -10.2 55% 56% -2.4
22.10.23 Ham-Kam vs FK Haugesund 0-3 43% 47% -6.6 26% 30% -12.6 30% 31% -2.2
22.10.23 Lilleström SK vs Valerenga Oslo 2-0 43% 45% -6.4 26% 29% -11.6 31% 32% -2.5
22.10.23 Rosenborg Trondheim vs Stabaek IF 1-1 51% 54% -6.6 24% 27% -10.9 25% 26% -3.4
22.10.23 Viking Stavanger vs Tromsö IL 3-4 50% 54% -7.5 24% 27% -10.6 26% 26% -1.9
28.10.23 FK Haugesund vs Aalesunds FK 6-1 52% 57% -8.1 24% 26% -10.1 24% 24% 0.2
29.10.23 Odd Grenland vs Ham-Kam 2-0 43% 45% -5.6 26% 29% -11.7 31% 32% -3.5
29.10.23 Sandefjord Fotball vs SK Brann Bergen 1-1 18% 20% -8.0 21% 24% -10.2 60% 63% -4.9
29.10.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek IF 2-2 62% 67% -7.6 20% 22% -7.9 18% 18% -1.1
29.10.23 Strømsgodset vs Viking Stavanger 1-0 31% 35% -12.6 25% 28% -11.2 45% 44% 0.5
29.10.23 Valerenga Oslo vs Rosenborg Trondheim 1-3 55% 60% -7.7 23% 26% -11.1 22% 22% -0.4
30.10.23 FK Bodö/Glimt vs Lilleström SK 3-1 73% 79% -7.7 16% 17% -5.6 12% 11% 1.4
30.10.23 Molde FK vs Tromsö IL 1-4 55% 60% -7.3 23% 26% -10.5 22% 22% -1.6
04.11.23 Ham-Kam vs Viking Stavanger 3-0 27% 30% -11.1 24% 27% -11.3 49% 51% -2.8
05.11.23 Lilleström SK vs FK Haugesund 1-0 53% 56% -5.2 24% 27% -11.6 23% 24% -4.0
05.11.23 Rosenborg Trondheim vs Molde FK 3-1 24% 26% -9.0 23% 25% -9.4 53% 56% -3.9
05.11.23 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Oslo 3-2 48% 53% -8.2 23% 26% -8.4 28% 29% -1.4
05.11.23 SK Brann Bergen vs Odd Grenland 2-1 80% 85% -5.9 13% 14% -7.1 7% 7% 1.0
05.11.23 Stabaek IF vs FK Bodö/Glimt 0-4 17% 19% -10.6 20% 22% -9.7 63% 67% -5.0
05.11.23 Tromsö IL vs Strømsgodset 0-1 66% 70% -6.8 20% 23% -11.6 14% 14% -0.2
06.11.23 Aalesunds FK vs Sandefjord Fotball 0-3 44% 49% -9.4 24% 26% -8.9 32% 32% -1.3
11.11.23 FK Haugesund vs SK Brann Bergen 0-2 22% 25% -10.4 24% 27% -11.9 54% 56% -2.6
12.11.23 FK Bodö/Glimt vs Aalesunds FK 1-0 87% 91% -4.8 8% 9% -2.8 5% 5% -3.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 695 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FK Bodö/Glimt 2269.48
2 Molde FK 2223.73
3 Viking Stavanger 2212.68
4 Rosenborg Trondheim 2187.57
5 Tromsö IL 2162.68
6 SK Brann Bergen 2051.60
7 Valerenga Oslo 2020.92
8 Lilleström SK 1999.37
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 1991.20
10 Aalesunds FK 1946.19
11 Fredrikstad FK 1944.23
12 KFUM-Kam. Oslo 1917.86
13 Kristiansund BK 1902.90
14 IK Start Kristiansand 1873.10
15 Ham-Kam 1865.28
16 Sandefjord Fotball 1857.36

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FK Bodö/Glimt 2175.30
2 Molde FK 2098.45
3 Rosenborg Trondheim 2064.64
4 Viking Stavanger 2048.37
5 Tromsö IL 2017.33
6 SK Brann Bergen 1963.88
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 1924.79
8 Fredrikstad FK 1908.90
9 Lilleström SK 1885.82
10 Valerenga Oslo 1884.19
11 Aalesunds FK 1859.25
12 Sandefjord Fotball 1858.35
13 KFUM-Kam. Oslo 1849.51
14 Ham-Kam 1826.47
15 IK Start Kristiansand 1815.81
16 Kristiansund BK 1772.41