ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 751
Avg Goals 2.39
Avg Home 1.26
Avg Away 1.13
Home Win % 37.8%
Draw % 30.9%
Away Win % 31.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 751
Avg Brier Score 0.6344
Pick Accuracy 44.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6361
Market Brier 0.6355
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 25.0%
ROI (flat stake) 56.2%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 751 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit 2.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 2 50.0% 2.00 4.25 212.5%
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.9% 0.0% 4
10–20% 16.7% 13.5% 155
20–30% 26.5% 26.9% 778
30–40% 33.1% 35.0% 800
40–50% 44.3% 38.9% 311
50–60% 54.4% 57.5% 160
60–70% 63.6% 60.0% 40
70–80% 72.8% 80.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Trinidense 4-1 55% 67% -17.9 26% 26% 0.5 19% 19% 0.3
05.08.23 Libertad Asuncion vs General Caballero 0-0 59% 68% -13.8 24% 25% -2.2 17% 18% -9.2
06.08.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Guarani 5-3 52% 61% -15.4 27% 28% -3.1 21% 23% -8.3
06.08.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Resistencia FC 2-2 46% 54% -15.0 29% 30% -5.5 25% 29% -11.1
07.08.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Guairena FC 2-0 57% 65% -13.1 26% 28% -5.0 17% 18% -7.6
08.08.23 Tacuary FBC vs Sportivo Ameliano 2-2 30% 36% -16.7 30% 32% -6.9 40% 44% -9.6
12.08.23 Resistencia FC vs Libertad Asuncion 0-1 18% 19% -8.1 25% 25% 0.1 57% 67% -14.3
12.08.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion 2-0 33% 38% -14.6 31% 33% -7.4 36% 41% -11.1
13.08.23 Cerro Porteño vs Olimpia Asuncion 1-1 42% 50% -16.6 30% 31% -5.4 29% 31% -8.0
13.08.23 Guairena FC vs Guarani 2-1 28% 33% -17.0 30% 32% -7.7 43% 48% -10.6
15.08.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Luqueño 1-2 35% 39% -10.7 30% 32% -6.3 35% 41% -14.9
19.08.23 Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano 0-3 34% 40% -14.3 30% 32% -6.2 35% 40% -11.4
19.08.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Guairena FC 1-1 58% 67% -13.7 25% 26% -2.9 17% 19% -9.8
20.08.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense 0-1 61% 69% -12.5 24% 25% -3.4 15% 17% -9.6
20.08.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Cerro Porteño 2-2 28% 32% -13.2 30% 31% -5.6 42% 49% -12.9
21.08.23 Nacional Asuncion vs General Caballero 2-3 51% 58% -13.2 28% 30% -6.9 21% 24% -11.7
26.08.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Guairena FC 4-0 51% 59% -13.3 28% 29% -5.5 21% 24% -11.0
26.08.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Tacuary FBC 1-1 42% 49% -13.1 29% 31% -5.9 28% 32% -12.7
27.08.23 Cerro Porteño vs Libertad Asuncion 1-1 35% 42% -16.4 32% 34% -8.4 34% 36% -7.7
27.08.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Olimpia Asuncion 0-1 31% 35% -12.0 30% 31% -4.8 40% 45% -12.9
28.08.23 General Caballero vs Guarani 0-1 34% 40% -14.4 31% 33% -7.8 35% 40% -12.4
29.08.23 Resistencia FC vs Nacional Asuncion 2-1 26% 30% -14.1 28% 29% -4.2 46% 53% -13.0
02.09.23 Tacuary FBC vs Cerro Porteño 1-1 17% 20% -12.9 26% 27% -3.7 57% 65% -11.8
03.09.23 Guarani vs Resistencia FC 3-2 44% 53% -15.7 28% 29% -3.7 27% 30% -9.9
03.09.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueño 2-0 57% 66% -14.3 25% 26% -3.7 18% 20% -10.4
04.09.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense 1-2 50% 59% -14.9 28% 29% -4.7 22% 24% -8.1
09.09.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Guarani 0-0 36% 43% -14.5 30% 32% -6.3 33% 38% -11.4
10.09.23 General Caballero vs Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 31% 36% -14.3 30% 32% -6.3 39% 43% -11.2
10.09.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Tacuary FBC 3-1 52% 61% -13.8 27% 28% -3.3 21% 23% -9.6
11.09.23 Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asuncion 1-1 52% 62% -17.4 27% 28% -2.1 21% 22% -2.6
15.09.23 Guairena FC vs Sportivo Trinidense 2-0 33% 38% -13.5 32% 35% -9.0 35% 39% -11.2
16.09.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueño 2-1 43% 50% -14.9 30% 31% -5.4 28% 31% -9.5
16.09.23 Tacuary FBC vs Libertad Asuncion 0-4 14% 15% -11.3 24% 24% -3.2 63% 72% -12.8
17.09.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs General Caballero 3-1 60% 70% -15.4 24% 24% -0.1 16% 17% -3.6
17.09.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Resistencia FC 1-2 50% 59% -15.6 28% 29% -3.6 23% 25% -8.7
18.09.23 Guarani vs Cerro Porteño 1-0 22% 26% -15.1 28% 29% -5.7 50% 57% -11.7
21.09.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano 4-0 48% 57% -16.1 28% 29% -4.0 24% 26% -7.1
23.09.23 Guairena FC vs Cerro Porteño 1-4 16% 18% -12.4 26% 27% -5.2 58% 67% -12.3
23.09.23 Tacuary FBC vs Olimpia Asuncion 0-0 17% 19% -10.3 26% 26% -2.8 57% 66% -13.4
24.09.23 Guarani vs Sportivo Luqueño 2-1 37% 44% -16.6 30% 31% -5.4 33% 37% -9.9
24.09.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion 2-3 24% 28% -13.4 30% 32% -7.6 46% 53% -12.3
25.09.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense 0-3 46% 54% -15.0 29% 30% -5.5 25% 29% -11.0
28.09.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion 4-0 48% 56% -15.2 29% 30% -5.7 24% 26% -9.8
30.09.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs General Caballero 0-3 41% 48% -14.5 30% 32% -6.3 29% 32% -9.9
01.10.23 Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Ameliano 3-2 52% 62% -15.1 26% 27% -2.8 21% 24% -10.5
01.10.23 Tacuary FBC vs Nacional Asuncion 0-3 23% 27% -13.3 29% 31% -6.6 47% 54% -12.3
02.10.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani 0-0 62% 73% -14.8 23% 23% 1.1 14% 15% -2.3
02.10.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Guairena FC 1-0 50% 59% -14.6 28% 30% -6.0 21% 23% -8.0
03.10.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Resistencia FC 0-0 63% 74% -14.6 23% 22% 1.7 14% 15% -4.3
07.10.23 General Caballero vs Cerro Porteño 1-1 18% 21% -13.1 25% 26% -2.3 57% 66% -13.6
07.10.23 Guairena FC vs Libertad Asuncion 1-5 15% 17% -11.9 24% 24% -2.2 61% 70% -12.1
08.10.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion 1-0 31% 36% -14.1 30% 32% -6.0 39% 43% -10.3
08.10.23 Resistencia FC vs Sportivo Trinidense 1-4 30% 34% -12.2 30% 32% -6.2 39% 45% -13.1
09.10.23 Guarani vs Tacuary FBC 2-0 50% 59% -15.2 29% 31% -6.2 21% 23% -6.4
10.10.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueño 0-2 41% 48% -14.8 29% 31% -5.7 30% 34% -11.7
18.10.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani 4-0 41% 49% -16.1 31% 33% -7.4 28% 30% -7.0
20.10.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs General Caballero 1-0 50% 60% -16.0 28% 29% -4.8 22% 24% -7.6
21.10.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano 3-0 60% 70% -14.3 24% 24% -1.4 16% 17% -7.9
21.10.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense 2-2 53% 61% -13.2 27% 28% -3.7 21% 23% -10.7
22.10.23 Cerro Porteño vs Resistencia FC 4-1 67% 77% -13.5 21% 21% 1.1 12% 13% -7.0
22.10.23 Guairena FC vs Nacional Asuncion 0-0 24% 27% -11.8 29% 30% -5.1 47% 55% -13.3
23.10.23 General Caballero vs Libertad Asuncion 0-0 14% 16% -11.4 24% 25% -3.3 62% 70% -11.8
24.10.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Tacuary FBC 2-1 55% 65% -14.9 26% 26% -2.0 19% 21% -8.2
24.10.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Cerro Porteño 2-5 22% 25% -11.1 28% 29% -3.4 50% 58% -13.7
25.10.23 Guarani vs Olimpia Asuncion 0-1 26% 30% -14.6 29% 31% -5.8 45% 51% -12.0
26.10.23 Resistencia FC vs Sportivo Luqueño 0-0 26% 30% -13.3 29% 31% -5.5 45% 51% -13.0
28.10.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano 2-1 46% 55% -16.2 29% 30% -5.0 25% 28% -8.4
29.10.23 Guarani vs Guairena FC 0-0 49% 58% -15.2 29% 30% -5.7 22% 24% -8.2
29.10.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Cerro Porteño 0-0 36% 42% -14.3 29% 30% -4.4 35% 41% -13.5
30.10.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Sportivo Trinidense 2-1 44% 51% -15.1 29% 31% -6.0 27% 30% -10.6
31.10.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Resistencia FC 4-1 73% 83% -12.8 18% 17% 4.2 9% 10% -3.6
01.11.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani 0-0 40% 48% -16.5 30% 31% -5.5 31% 34% -9.5
02.11.23 General Caballero vs Nacional Asuncion 0-0 24% 28% -13.6 29% 31% -6.8 47% 54% -13.3
03.11.23 Guairena FC vs Olimpia Asuncion 0-1 20% 23% -13.0 26% 27% -2.6 54% 62% -13.2
03.11.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion 1-1 20% 22% -11.4 27% 28% -3.6 54% 62% -13.3
04.11.23 Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Luqueño 2-0 53% 62% -15.2 27% 28% -3.3 20% 22% -7.8
05.11.23 Tacuary FBC vs Sportivo Trinidense 1-0 30% 35% -14.4 29% 31% -5.0 41% 47% -12.4
06.11.23 Guarani vs General Caballero 2-0 45% 53% -14.3 30% 32% -7.3 25% 28% -10.0
06.11.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteño 1-1 44% 53% -15.5 29% 30% -4.7 27% 29% -9.4
07.11.23 Guairena FC vs Sportivo Ameliano 2-2 28% 32% -13.8 29% 30% -4.8 43% 50% -13.3
07.11.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Resistencia FC 5-0 63% 73% -14.3 24% 24% -0.9 14% 14% -3.0
08.11.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueño 2-1 47% 55% -14.6 29% 31% -5.8 24% 27% -9.6
11.11.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia Asuncion 1-0 30% 36% -15.3 29% 30% -4.7 41% 47% -12.2
12.11.23 Cerro Porteño vs Tacuary FBC 1-1 66% 76% -13.9 21% 21% 1.5 13% 14% -6.6
12.11.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Libertad Asuncion 0-1 25% 29% -14.9 29% 30% -5.8 46% 53% -12.7
13.11.23 Resistencia FC vs Guarani 0-1 24% 28% -13.7 28% 29% -3.7 49% 56% -13.6
14.11.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Nacional Asuncion 1-1 30% 35% -14.7 30% 32% -6.7 40% 45% -11.6
23.11.23 Tacuary FBC vs Sportivo Luqueño 1-1 27% 31% -14.9 29% 31% -6.2 44% 50% -11.8
24.11.23 Sportivo Ameliano vs General Caballero 1-2 42% 49% -13.1 29% 31% -5.8 28% 32% -12.6
25.11.23 Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense 0-2 44% 53% -16.1 29% 30% -4.6 27% 29% -8.5
25.11.23 Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion 1-3 31% 36% -14.9 30% 32% -6.8 39% 44% -12.2
26.11.23 Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteño 1-1 37% 44% -16.2 30% 32% -6.3 32% 36% -9.0
29.11.23 Libertad Asuncion vs Tacuary FBC 1-2 57% 65% -11.8 25% 26% -3.9 18% 22% -15.1
29.11.23 Sportivo Trinidense vs Guairena FC 7-2 35% 40% -11.7 31% 33% -7.9 34% 40% -15.1
01.12.23 Cerro Porteño vs Guarani 4-0 48% 56% -14.8 28% 29% -3.4 24% 27% -10.3
01.12.23 General Caballero vs Olimpia Asuncion 0-1 30% 35% -15.9 30% 31% -5.5 41% 45% -9.8
01.12.23 Resistencia FC vs Sportivo Ameliano 0-3 16% 19% -13.6 23% 22% 1.8 61% 70% -13.5
01.12.23 Sportivo Luqueño vs Nacional Asuncion 1-1 30% 35% -14.1 31% 34% -8.0 39% 43% -11.0
19.01.24 Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion 1-0 32% 38% -15.7 30% 32% -6.4 37% 42% -10.2
20.01.24 Olimpia Asuncion vs Sol de America 1-1 56% 65% -15.0 26% 26% -2.0 19% 20% -6.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 751 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

13 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olimpia Asuncion 1849.27
2 Cerro Porteño 1801.51
3 Libertad Asuncion 1799.95
4 Sportivo Trinidense 1759.45
5 Nacional Asuncion 1758.15
6 Guarani 1716.20
7 Sportivo Ameliano 1676.03
8 CS 2 de Mayo 1665.72
9 Rubio Nu 1630.68
10 Sportivo Luqueño 1621.22
11 Recoleta FC 1617.84
12 Deportivo Recoleta 1597.49
13 Sportivo San Lorenzo 1544.06

Away Ratings

13 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olimpia Asuncion 1829.37
2 Cerro Porteño 1788.20
3 Libertad Asuncion 1776.87
4 Nacional Asuncion 1730.12
5 Sportivo Trinidense 1706.16
6 Guarani 1671.75
7 Sportivo Ameliano 1639.14
8 Rubio Nu 1623.20
9 Recoleta FC 1596.62
10 CS 2 de Mayo 1595.78
11 Sportivo Luqueño 1581.86
12 Deportivo Recoleta 1544.36
13 Sportivo San Lorenzo 1500.13