ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 508
Avg Goals 2.43
Avg Home 1.33
Avg Away 1.09
Home Win % 41.1%
Draw % 32.5%
Away Win % 26.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 508
Avg Brier Score 0.6470
Pick Accuracy 43.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6472
Market Brier 0.6504
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 66.7%
ROI (flat stake) 251.7%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 508 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit 7.55 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 100.0% 2.00 8.55 427.5%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.4% 0.0% 2
10–20% 16.6% 17.1% 35
20–30% 27.0% 26.1% 528
30–40% 33.3% 34.2% 660
40–50% 44.2% 43.8% 233
50–60% 53.7% 53.7% 54
60–70% 62.9% 55.6% 9
70–80% 70.3% 66.7% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 Pastoreo FC vs Independiente FBC 0-3 46% 50% -8.8 29% 31% -8.5 26% 31% -17.4
05.08.23 Deportivo Carapegua vs CS 2 de Mayo 0-0 31% 35% -12.5 31% 33% -5.9 38% 44% -14.6
06.08.23 CA Colegiales vs Sol de America 0-1 19% 18% 2.7 28% 27% 2.9 54% 66% -19.2
07.08.23 24 de Setiembre VP vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 4-2 22% 20% 8.1 28% 28% 0.7 50% 65% -21.9
08.08.23 Deportivo Santani vs 3 De Febrero 1-1 43% 49% -12.7 30% 32% -6.8 27% 31% -12.4
15.08.23 12 de Octubre Itaugua vs Deportivo Carapegua 2-3 21% 19% 7.8 30% 31% -3.0 49% 61% -19.9
19.08.23 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Independiente FBC 0-2 52% 58% -10.2 27% 30% -9.4 20% 24% -14.5
22.08.23 Rubio Nu vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1-0 35% 38% -6.9 29% 31% -6.1 36% 44% -20.0
23.08.23 CS 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Santani 3-2 49% 52% -6.3 28% 31% -10.9 24% 29% -19.8
24.08.23 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora vs Independiente FBC 0-3 46% 49% -5.0 28% 31% -10.3 26% 32% -20.6
24.08.23 Rubio Nu vs Deportivo Carapegua 1-0 39% 42% -8.0 29% 31% -6.5 32% 39% -18.5
24.08.23 Sol de America vs Atyra FC 2-1 70% 77% -8.8 19% 22% -11.1 11% 12% -15.8
28.08.23 Deportivo Carapegua vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1-1 33% 34% -4.0 31% 33% -8.0 36% 45% -20.3
29.08.23 Independiente FBC vs 3 De Febrero 1-1 45% 49% -8.2 29% 31% -8.3 27% 32% -17.7
29.08.23 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Sol de America 0-1 23% 22% 2.9 29% 30% -2.8 48% 60% -20.9
01.09.23 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora vs 3 De Febrero 2-1 52% 56% -7.5 27% 29% -9.7 21% 26% -18.4
02.09.23 24 de Setiembre VP vs Deportivo Santani 0-1 33% 32% 1.1 29% 31% -6.2 38% 49% -22.0
02.09.23 Deportivo Carapegua vs Deportivo Recoleta 3-4 36% 37% -3.1 29% 31% -6.0 35% 43% -20.1
03.09.23 Sol de America vs Independiente FBC 1-3 47% 48% -0.9 29% 33% -14.1 24% 31% -22.7
09.09.23 Deportivo Santani vs Rubio Nu 0-1 41% 44% -8.0 30% 33% -9.8 29% 36% -18.7
10.09.23 3 De Febrero vs Sol de America 0-1 27% 29% -4.5 30% 30% -2.5 43% 53% -18.8
12.09.23 Independiente FBC vs Club Martin Ledesma 1-2 64% 73% -12.5 22% 23% -3.6 14% 15% -6.7
16.09.23 CS 2 de Mayo vs Independiente FBC 4-0 45% 50% -9.6 29% 32% -9.0 25% 30% -16.1
22.09.23 Pastoreo FC vs Deportivo Carapegua 3-1 40% 43% -9.0 30% 32% -6.9 30% 36% -16.3
23.09.23 Independiente FBC vs 12 de Octubre Itaugua 2-2 66% 75% -10.9 20% 22% -6.3 13% 15% -14.3
24.09.23 CA Colegiales vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1-0 23% 24% -4.3 32% 33% -5.5 46% 56% -17.7
26.09.23 Sol de America vs Club Martin Ledesma 2-1 71% 79% -10.2 20% 22% -9.9 9% 10% -7.7
01.10.23 Deportivo Carapegua vs Atyra FC 3-2 52% 58% -10.9 26% 27% -5.6 23% 28% -17.3
06.10.23 Deportivo Santani vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 2-1 41% 47% -11.6 28% 29% -4.3 31% 37% -16.9
07.10.23 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Carapegua 0-0 39% 42% -5.6 30% 33% -9.3 30% 38% -19.3
09.10.23 Independiente FBC vs Rubio Nu 2-2 49% 57% -14.1 27% 29% -4.5 24% 27% -11.5
08.04.24 Independiente FBC vs Guairena FC 2-2 36% 40% -8.8 29% 30% -4.7 35% 43% -18.6
23.04.24 Deportivo Santani vs Deportivo Carapegua 0-1 42% 45% -7.8 28% 30% -6.8 30% 37% -19.5
26.04.24 Deportivo Santani vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 2-2 37% 38% -5.1 29% 31% -5.9 34% 42% -19.2
29.04.24 Guairena FC vs 3 De Febrero 1-2 48% 52% -7.5 27% 29% -7.9 25% 31% -18.9
03.05.24 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs CA Tembetary 1-0 49% 54% -9.7 28% 31% -9.2 23% 27% -15.5
06.05.24 Resistencia FC vs Deportivo Carapegua 1-2 40% 47% -13.4 29% 31% -5.0 31% 36% -14.5
07.05.24 Encarnacion FC vs Guairena FC 2-1 42% 45% -7.8 30% 33% -9.0 28% 33% -16.6
10.05.24 Guairena FC vs Club Martin Ledesma 1-1 51% 54% -5.5 27% 31% -12.3 22% 28% -21.1
11.05.24 Rubio Nu vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 0-3 38% 42% -9.2 31% 33% -8.4 31% 38% -17.4
13.05.24 Deportivo Santani vs Resistencia FC 1-1 36% 37% -4.0 30% 32% -7.5 35% 43% -20.4
20.05.24 Resistencia FC vs Rubio Nu 2-1 42% 48% -12.4 30% 32% -7.4 28% 33% -14.7
21.05.24 Independiente FBC vs Deportivo Santani 1-0 51% 56% -10.2 28% 31% -9.3 21% 25% -14.6
24.05.24 Deportivo Santani vs Sportivo San Lorenzo 1-0 34% 36% -5.2 31% 33% -7.5 35% 43% -18.8
25.05.24 Rubio Nu vs Independiente FBC 0-0 40% 45% -12.8 30% 31% -5.1 31% 36% -14.0
28.05.24 CA Colegiales vs Deportivo Santani 1-1 39% 45% -13.6 30% 31% -4.8 31% 36% -13.2
31.05.24 Independiente FBC vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 2-0 42% 47% -8.9 30% 32% -7.9 28% 33% -16.3
01.06.24 Deportivo Santani vs 3 De Febrero 1-0 48% 55% -12.8 29% 32% -8.8 23% 26% -11.5
02.06.24 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes vs Pastoreo FC 2-2 40% 43% -8.3 30% 32% -7.2 30% 36% -16.9
09.06.24 Club Martin Ledesma vs Deportivo Carapegua 0-0 23% 24% -2.7 29% 29% -1.3 48% 60% -19.6
09.06.24 Pastoreo FC vs CA Tembetary 1-1 26% 24% 9.7 28% 29% -3.3 45% 60% -23.7
10.06.24 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Independiente FBC 1-2 42% 48% -12.1 30% 32% -6.7 28% 32% -13.1
11.06.24 Guairena FC vs Deportivo Recoleta 2-1 23% 21% 12.2 27% 27% 1.6 50% 65% -23.2
16.06.24 Deportivo Santani vs Club Martin Ledesma 1-1 51% 56% -8.8 28% 31% -10.2 21% 24% -15.1
16.06.24 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 2-2 47% 53% -11.5 29% 32% -8.8 24% 28% -13.6
18.06.24 Rubio Nu vs Encarnacion FC 1-1 37% 43% -13.7 29% 29% -1.9 34% 40% -14.0
21.06.24 Guairena FC vs Deportivo Santani 1-1 50% 54% -6.9 29% 34% -13.4 20% 24% -16.7
23.06.24 Encarnacion FC vs Resistencia FC 0-1 45% 50% -9.5 29% 32% -9.5 26% 31% -17.0
25.06.24 3 De Febrero vs Independiente FBC 1-1 27% 29% -7.8 30% 31% -3.5 43% 52% -17.6
25.06.24 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora vs CA Tembetary 1-1 38% 40% -4.7 30% 32% -8.5 32% 41% -20.7
27.06.24 Resistencia FC vs Club Martin Ledesma 1-2 48% 51% -6.2 29% 32% -11.2 23% 29% -18.6
27.06.24 Rubio Nu vs Guairena FC 1-0 38% 42% -9.6 30% 32% -6.5 32% 38% -16.1
29.06.24 Deportivo Recoleta vs CA Tembetary 1-1 57% 64% -10.3 25% 27% -7.9 18% 21% -14.7
29.06.24 Deportivo Santani vs Pastoreo FC 3-1 45% 51% -11.8 29% 31% -6.9 26% 31% -14.3
30.06.24 Deportivo Carapegua vs 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes 1-1 63% 74% -14.7 23% 24% -1.9 14% 14% 1.0
01.07.24 CA Colegiales vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1-1 24% 26% -7.4 29% 29% -0.9 46% 56% -17.7
01.07.24 Independiente FBC vs Encarnacion FC 3-1 43% 48% -10.7 30% 32% -8.2 28% 33% -16.4
05.07.24 CA Tembetary vs Deportivo Carapegua 2-1 37% 39% -5.9 30% 33% -8.9 33% 41% -19.8
05.07.24 Guairena FC vs Resistencia FC 0-0 40% 41% -2.6 30% 34% -10.6 30% 38% -20.6
06.07.24 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes vs Deportivo Santani 0-1 38% 45% -17.5 31% 32% -5.0 32% 35% -9.3
07.07.24 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Recoleta 2-1 19% 17% 11.1 27% 26% 4.7 54% 68% -21.4
07.07.24 Club Martin Ledesma vs Independiente FBC 2-0 27% 29% -7.5 30% 31% -3.2 43% 51% -17.0
08.07.24 Encarnacion FC vs Sportivo San Lorenzo 0-0 33% 35% -5.4 30% 32% -5.7 36% 44% -18.1
12.07.24 Pastoreo FC vs Resistencia FC 0-1 40% 43% -8.1 29% 31% -6.7 31% 38% -18.2
13.07.24 Deportivo Recoleta vs Deportivo Carapegua 2-0 49% 51% -4.2 28% 31% -11.7 23% 29% -20.9
13.07.24 Encarnacion FC vs CA Colegiales 5-1 60% 67% -10.0 24% 26% -7.3 16% 18% -12.9
13.07.24 Guairena FC vs Independiente FBC 2-1 38% 42% -7.7 31% 34% -8.8 31% 37% -17.3
14.07.24 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes vs Rubio Nu 0-0 32% 35% -8.9 31% 33% -6.4 37% 44% -16.6
15.07.24 3 De Febrero vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 2-1 28% 29% -1.1 30% 32% -5.6 41% 52% -20.3
15.07.24 CA Tembetary vs Deportivo Santani 3-2 53% 61% -13.0 28% 30% -8.5 19% 21% -9.2
19.07.24 3 De Febrero vs Encarnacion FC 1-2 31% 34% -9.5 30% 31% -4.1 39% 48% -17.4
21.07.24 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Carapegua 0-0 37% 38% -3.8 30% 33% -8.9 33% 41% -20.1
21.07.24 Deportivo Santani vs Deportivo Recoleta 0-0 25% 27% -7.3 29% 29% -0.9 46% 56% -17.6
22.07.24 Rubio Nu vs CA Tembetary 0-2 31% 32% -2.9 30% 32% -5.9 38% 48% -19.6
23.07.24 Independiente FBC vs Pastoreo FC 0-2 52% 58% -9.6 27% 29% -8.3 21% 24% -14.8
26.07.24 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes vs Independiente FBC 0-0 34% 38% -11.1 31% 33% -6.5 35% 42% -15.3
26.07.24 Encarnacion FC vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 4-1 46% 51% -9.8 29% 32% -9.7 25% 29% -16.4
28.07.24 Deportivo Carapegua vs Deportivo Santani 1-0 50% 58% -13.5 28% 29% -6.4 22% 26% -12.3
29.07.24 CA Tembetary vs Resistencia FC 1-0 44% 45% -4.3 30% 33% -10.9 27% 33% -19.7
30.07.24 Guairena FC vs CA Colegiales 3-0 57% 62% -8.9 25% 28% -9.3 18% 22% -16.3
02.08.24 Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes 0-1 46% 50% -8.0 30% 33% -11.1 24% 29% -17.3
03.08.24 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Santani 0-0 44% 49% -10.8 29% 31% -6.8 27% 32% -15.2
03.08.24 Resistencia FC vs Deportivo Recoleta 1-3 33% 36% -6.4 31% 33% -7.2 36% 43% -18.1
04.08.24 3 De Febrero vs Guairena FC 0-0 31% 33% -5.6 33% 36% -8.9 36% 43% -17.3
04.08.24 Independiente FBC vs CA Tembetary 2-5 29% 30% -4.6 31% 32% -5.3 41% 50% -18.9
05.08.24 Rubio Nu vs Deportivo Carapegua 0-1 40% 43% -8.5 30% 32% -7.7 30% 37% -17.8
06.08.24 Encarnacion FC vs Club Martin Ledesma 0-0 51% 56% -10.6 28% 30% -8.1 22% 25% -13.5
09.08.24 CA Tembetary vs Sportivo San Lorenzo 2-1 43% 45% -4.9 31% 36% -12.2 25% 31% -17.4
10.08.24 Club Martin Ledesma vs Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1-0 41% 44% -6.7 29% 32% -9.1 29% 36% -19.7
10.08.24 Deportivo Santani vs Rubio Nu 0-1 43% 49% -12.8 30% 32% -6.8 27% 31% -12.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 508 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes 1632.90
2 Sol de America 1623.95
3 General Caballero 1589.54
4 Independiente FBC 1576.42
5 Club Dr Benjamin Aceval 1573.81
6 Deportivo Santani 1558.19
7 Deportivo Capiata 1556.33
8 Resistencia FC 1538.24
9 Deportivo Carapegua 1521.87
10 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1511.67
11 Paraguari AC 1497.20
12 CA Tembetary 1484.83
13 3 de Noviembre de B San Pablo 1472.32
14 Encarnacion FC 1463.37
15 Guairena FC 1458.59
16 Tacuary FBC 1455.61

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 General Caballero 1616.16
2 Independiente FBC 1569.55
3 Sol de America 1559.62
4 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes 1554.67
5 Deportivo Santani 1552.74
6 Club Dr Benjamin Aceval 1523.75
7 Club 1 de Marzo Fernando de la Mora 1514.07
8 CA Tembetary 1498.77
9 Paraguari AC 1479.84
10 Encarnacion FC 1477.91
11 Deportivo Capiata 1467.95
12 Resistencia FC 1458.65
13 Deportivo Carapegua 1451.50
14 3 de Noviembre de B San Pablo 1448.38
15 Guairena FC 1429.44
16 Tacuary FBC 1394.02