ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 447
Avg Goals 2.60
Avg Home 1.58
Avg Away 1.01
Home Win % 49.7%
Draw % 24.4%
Away Win % 26.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 447
Avg Brier Score 0.5781
Pick Accuracy 54.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5884
Market Brier 0.5765
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 25.0%
ROI (flat stake) 93.8%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 75.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 447 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit 3.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 100.0% 1.00 6.75 675.0%
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.1% 4.5% 44
10–20% 16.1% 17.7% 181
20–30% 25.9% 23.8% 572
30–40% 34.5% 36.8% 155
40–50% 44.8% 47.8% 159
50–60% 54.8% 53.6% 125
60–70% 64.0% 68.4% 57
70–80% 74.5% 74.4% 39
80–90% 86.4% 100.0% 7
90–100% 93.2% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.08.23 Universidad San Martin vs Molinos El Pirata 4-1 61% 68% -11.4 24% 26% -9.1 15% 17% -7.7
03.08.23 Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Alianza Universidad 2-2 43% 48% -10.0 27% 30% -9.3 30% 34% -12.5
03.08.23 Ayacucho FC vs Comerciantes FC 2-0 31% 36% -14.2 27% 29% -9.5 43% 48% -10.2
03.08.23 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Comerciantes Unidos 0-1 34% 38% -10.8 28% 31% -10.1 38% 43% -11.7
03.08.23 Santos FC Nasca vs CD Los Chankas 1-0 43% 51% -15.8 28% 31% -9.5 30% 31% -3.8
08.08.23 Alianza Universidad vs Santos FC Nasca 3-0 65% 72% -9.0 21% 24% -10.2 13% 15% -14.6
08.08.23 Molinos El Pirata vs Carlos Stein 2-2 58% 63% -8.3 24% 27% -11.1 18% 22% -17.8
09.08.23 CD Los Chankas vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 5-0 65% 73% -11.2 21% 22% -5.9 14% 16% -10.9
10.08.23 Comerciantes FC vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2-0 47% 56% -15.8 27% 29% -8.2 26% 26% -2.3
10.08.23 Union Huaral vs Ayacucho FC 1-2 49% 51% -5.1 25% 27% -9.0 27% 34% -21.1
10.08.23 Universidad San Martin vs Juan Aurich 0-1 59% 68% -12.9 23% 24% -5.0 18% 20% -9.4
15.08.23 Santos FC Nasca vs Comerciantes FC 0-0 50% 58% -13.6 27% 29% -9.6 23% 26% -8.6
17.08.23 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Alianza Universidad 3-2 41% 48% -13.3 27% 29% -8.6 32% 36% -10.8
22.08.23 Comerciantes FC vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 2-0 45% 52% -12.7 27% 29% -8.5 28% 31% -9.6
22.08.23 Molinos El Pirata vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno 4-1 32% 39% -18.7 26% 29% -10.1 42% 43% -4.2
24.08.23 Alianza Universidad vs Deportivo Coopsol 3-0 72% 78% -8.1 18% 21% -11.6 10% 12% -16.9
24.08.23 Union Huaral vs Santos FC Nasca 1-0 30% 33% -9.9 28% 32% -11.7 42% 48% -12.8
29.08.23 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Huaral 1-0 71% 76% -6.4 18% 21% -13.9 10% 13% -21.9
29.08.23 Santos FC Nasca vs Molinos El Pirata 3-0 70% 78% -9.8 19% 21% -8.8 11% 12% -13.0
30.08.23 Deportivo Coopsol vs Comerciantes FC 1-0 34% 38% -9.6 31% 36% -13.7 35% 39% -10.6
31.08.23 Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Universidad San Martin 3-1 40% 44% -10.3 26% 29% -8.0 34% 40% -15.3
31.08.23 Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Universidad 0-0 48% 55% -11.5 27% 29% -9.7 25% 29% -12.3
05.09.23 Universidad San Martin vs Santos FC Nasca 3-1 50% 55% -9.2 27% 30% -10.9 23% 27% -13.4
06.09.23 Ayacucho FC vs Juan Aurich 2-1 34% 41% -16.3 27% 30% -10.1 39% 42% -7.3
06.09.23 Molinos El Pirata vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 0-3 24% 29% -17.4 24% 27% -9.8 52% 57% -8.4
07.09.23 Alianza Universidad vs CD Los Chankas 2-1 52% 58% -10.9 26% 29% -10.0 22% 26% -13.5
07.09.23 Comerciantes FC vs Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 42% 49% -13.0 28% 31% -9.5 29% 31% -6.3
11.09.23 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Universidad San Martin 0-0 59% 65% -10.2 23% 25% -8.2 18% 22% -15.4
11.09.23 Santos FC Nasca vs Carlos Stein 4-1 89% 96% -7.1 8% 8% -8.3 3% 4% -20.4
12.09.23 Deportivo Coopsol vs Molinos El Pirata 2-0 79% 88% -10.4 14% 15% -2.3 6% 6% -2.8
13.09.23 Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Ayacucho FC 1-1 72% 79% -8.9 18% 20% -10.2 10% 12% -17.6
13.09.23 CD Los Chankas vs Comerciantes FC 5-0 66% 75% -11.9 20% 21% -3.9 14% 15% -8.4
13.09.23 Juan Aurich vs Alianza Universidad 0-0 30% 34% -12.7 28% 31% -10.5 43% 48% -10.0
18.09.23 Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Coopsol 0-2 44% 48% -8.7 29% 32% -11.5 28% 32% -13.3
19.09.23 Carlos Stein vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 0-5 14% 19% -24.0 19% 23% -16.1 66% 69% -4.7
20.09.23 Ayacucho FC vs Santos FC Nasca 1-1 44% 56% -22.2 26% 29% -8.1 30% 27% 10.1
20.09.23 Molinos El Pirata vs Comerciantes Unidos 1-4 8% 11% -24.5 14% 17% -18.4 78% 83% -5.8
21.09.23 Comerciantes FC vs Alianza Universidad 3-1 42% 48% -12.5 28% 31% -9.7 31% 34% -9.8
26.09.23 Comerciantes Unidos vs Universidad San Martin 1-0 62% 65% -4.3 22% 26% -15.4 17% 22% -25.3
26.09.23 Juan Aurich vs Comerciantes FC 0-2 29% 32% -11.2 29% 32% -11.6 43% 48% -10.1
27.09.23 Alianza Universidad vs Union Huaral 1-0 79% 84% -6.1 14% 17% -16.2 7% 10% -25.1
27.09.23 CD Los Chankas vs Molinos El Pirata 11-0 90% 96% -6.5 7% 8% -11.2 3% 4% -23.3
27.09.23 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Ayacucho FC 2-2 73% 81% -9.9 17% 18% -6.1 10% 12% -15.1
02.10.23 Comerciantes FC vs Santos FC Nasca 1-0 50% 56% -9.9 29% 33% -12.9 21% 23% -8.0
02.10.23 Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 1-0 41% 44% -7.5 29% 32% -11.5 30% 36% -15.0
06.10.23 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Universidad San Martin 1-0 66% 74% -10.6 21% 23% -8.2 13% 15% -13.0
10.10.23 Universidad San Martin vs Alianza Universidad 2-3 29% 32% -9.9 32% 38% -15.7 39% 42% -7.5
11.10.23 Comerciantes FC vs CD Los Chankas 1-1 40% 44% -10.4 29% 32% -11.1 32% 36% -11.8
15.10.23 Alianza Universidad vs Universidad San Martin 3-1 74% 81% -8.5 17% 19% -9.4 9% 11% -15.1
15.10.23 CD Los Chankas vs Comerciantes FC 3-0 75% 84% -10.4 16% 17% -2.6 8% 9% -7.2
20.10.23 Alianza Universidad vs CD Los Chankas 3-1 49% 58% -16.3 26% 28% -7.0 26% 27% -4.4
27.10.23 CD Los Chankas vs Alianza Universidad 3-1 57% 66% -13.0 23% 24% -5.1 20% 22% -9.8
06.04.24 Club Ada Jaen vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 1-1 42% 44% -5.4 26% 29% -8.0 32% 38% -17.6
07.04.24 Comerciantes FC vs UCV Moquegua 2-2 52% 62% -16.1 25% 27% -5.8 23% 24% -3.1
08.04.24 Deportivo Municipal vs Academia Cantolao 3-2 56% 60% -6.7 24% 28% -11.9 19% 24% -18.9
09.04.24 Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Binacional 0-0 55% 68% -18.5 24% 25% -3.4 20% 19% 7.2
14.04.24 Ayacucho FC vs Universidad San Martin 0-1 35% 43% -17.1 27% 30% -9.8 37% 39% -4.7
15.04.24 Academia Cantolao vs Santos FC Nasca 2-1 42% 51% -17.2 28% 31% -10.4 30% 30% -2.5
16.04.24 Deportivo Coopsol vs Comerciantes FC 0-0 45% 50% -10.7 28% 32% -12.0 27% 31% -12.4
16.04.24 Juan Pablo II vs Club Ada Jaen 0-0 51% 51% -0.1 26% 30% -15.8 23% 31% -25.6
17.04.24 Molinos El Pirata vs FC San Marcos 0-2 30% 40% -24.3 27% 32% -15.3 42% 40% 6.0
20.04.24 Santos FC Nasca vs UCV Moquegua 1-0 44% 45% -3.2 30% 34% -14.4 26% 32% -17.9
21.04.24 Alianza Universidad vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 2-0 54% 60% -9.6 26% 29% -9.7 20% 23% -11.7
22.04.24 Universidad San Martin vs Academia Cantolao 0-1 46% 50% -7.5 27% 30% -11.8 27% 33% -19.0
24.04.24 Carlos Stein vs Molinos El Pirata 0-1 34% 38% -10.9 28% 31% -9.9 38% 43% -12.6
25.04.24 Deportivo Binacional vs Ayacucho FC 2-3 58% 65% -9.4 23% 26% -9.2 18% 22% -16.0
28.04.24 Comerciantes FC vs Deportivo Municipal 1-1 41% 43% -3.0 27% 30% -10.4 32% 39% -19.6
28.04.24 Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Universidad 1-1 38% 38% -2.2 26% 29% -8.3 36% 45% -20.4
28.04.24 UCV Moquegua vs Universidad San Martin 1-1 46% 49% -4.9 27% 31% -12.3 26% 32% -18.7
29.04.24 Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Binacional 1-0 58% 66% -12.2 24% 26% -8.2 18% 20% -9.5
29.04.24 FC San Marcos vs Carlos Stein 3-1 72% 79% -8.5 17% 18% -7.4 11% 14% -19.4
30.04.24 Deportivo Coopsol vs Santos FC Nasca 0-2 48% 53% -10.2 28% 32% -11.9 24% 27% -10.6
30.04.24 Molinos El Pirata vs Club Ada Jaen 2-1 40% 48% -15.9 27% 29% -8.6 33% 36% -7.4
05.05.24 Ayacucho FC vs Academia Cantolao 1-1 52% 60% -12.1 25% 28% -8.4 22% 25% -11.1
05.05.24 Deportivo Binacional vs UCV Moquegua 2-0 59% 67% -11.7 24% 26% -8.6 17% 18% -8.4
06.05.24 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Juan Pablo II 1-0 59% 67% -12.2 24% 26% -8.2 17% 18% -7.1
06.05.24 Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Coopsol 1-1 55% 62% -12.5 26% 29% -10.1 19% 20% -5.5
07.05.24 Club Ada Jaen vs FC San Marcos 0-2 47% 48% -1.3 28% 32% -14.2 25% 32% -21.4
11.05.24 Deportivo Municipal vs Santos FC Nasca 0-0 54% 60% -10.0 26% 30% -12.6 20% 23% -13.8
12.05.24 Comerciantes FC vs Universidad San Martin 1-0 50% 55% -8.5 28% 32% -13.3 22% 26% -14.1
13.05.24 Deportivo Coopsol vs Deportivo Binacional 2-1 46% 55% -16.9 27% 29% -8.7 27% 29% -3.8
13.05.24 Molinos El Pirata vs Alianza Universidad 1-2 22% 28% -20.6 25% 29% -14.5 53% 56% -4.9
14.05.24 Carlos Stein vs Club Ada Jaen 2-4 25% 29% -16.0 25% 28% -9.9 50% 55% -8.5
14.05.24 UCV Moquegua vs Ayacucho FC 0-1 49% 53% -8.5 28% 32% -12.9 23% 27% -14.1
17.05.24 Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Municipal 2-2 34% 37% -7.9 31% 35% -13.0 35% 40% -11.6
18.05.24 Alianza Universidad vs FC San Marcos 3-1 61% 61% -0.1 22% 28% -19.9 16% 23% -28.6
19.05.24 Ayacucho FC vs Deportivo Coopsol 1-0 56% 65% -12.8 24% 25% -6.0 20% 23% -11.0
19.05.24 Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Molinos El Pirata 4-0 67% 74% -9.5 21% 23% -9.9 13% 15% -14.5
20.05.24 Academia Cantolao vs UCV Moquegua 1-0 54% 61% -10.7 26% 29% -11.0 20% 22% -11.3
20.05.24 Deportivo Binacional vs Comerciantes FC 2-0 60% 68% -12.3 24% 27% -9.2 16% 17% -7.2
23.05.24 Carlos Stein vs Alianza Universidad 1-5 7% 9% -20.4 16% 20% -19.1 77% 81% -5.8
23.05.24 FC San Marcos vs Deportivo Llacuabamba 2-1 46% 52% -11.3 28% 31% -10.2 26% 29% -9.1
25.05.24 Comerciantes FC vs Ayacucho FC 2-1 48% 52% -8.1 28% 32% -12.8 24% 29% -15.1
25.05.24 Molinos El Pirata vs Juan Pablo II 1-2 28% 32% -14.1 28% 32% -12.3 44% 48% -7.6
26.05.24 Deportivo Municipal vs Deportivo Binacional 2-0 53% 61% -12.6 26% 29% -9.2 21% 23% -8.6
27.05.24 Deportivo Coopsol vs Academia Cantolao 0-3 39% 44% -12.4 29% 32% -11.3 32% 36% -10.7
27.05.24 Santos FC Nasca vs Universidad San Martin 2-2 45% 50% -10.0 28% 32% -11.8 27% 30% -12.3
30.05.24 Alianza Universidad vs Club Ada Jaen 2-0 75% 79% -5.0 17% 21% -19.2 8% 10% -24.6
30.05.24 Juan Pablo II vs FC San Marcos 3-2 48% 49% -1.8 27% 31% -12.9 25% 31% -20.3
31.05.24 Ayacucho FC vs Deportivo Municipal 3-0 45% 51% -11.0 29% 32% -11.4 26% 29% -10.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 447 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Deportivo Llacuabamba 1655.08
2 Union Minas 1632.21
3 Bentin Tacna Heroica 1628.54
4 Comerciantes FC 1597.79
5 Union Comercio 1554.65
6 Club Ada Jaen 1536.83
7 Sport Huancayo II 1512.20
8 Alianza Universidad 1502.48
9 Carlos Mannucci 1490.61
10 Universidad César Vallejo 1478.62
11 Universidad San Martin 1474.25
12 CD Estudiantil CNI 1452.14
13 Molinos El Pirata 1390.21
14 Santos FC Nasca 1381.99
15 Ayacucho FC 1377.68
16 Academia Cantolao 1264.42
17 FC San Marcos 1215.79
18 Deportivo Binacional 1196.11

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Bentin Tacna Heroica 1466.86
2 Union Minas 1455.81
3 Comerciantes FC 1420.81
4 Carlos Mannucci 1420.38
5 Universidad César Vallejo 1415.05
6 Union Comercio 1411.09
7 Deportivo Llacuabamba 1398.11
8 Universidad San Martin 1387.20
9 Sport Huancayo II 1383.60
10 Ayacucho FC 1371.06
11 Santos FC Nasca 1353.32
12 Alianza Universidad 1340.05
13 Club Ada Jaen 1334.06
14 CD Estudiantil CNI 1286.30
15 Academia Cantolao 1264.53
16 Molinos El Pirata 1251.73
17 Deportivo Binacional 1142.64
18 FC San Marcos 1113.95