ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 882
Avg Goals 2.73
Avg Home 1.56
Avg Away 1.17
Home Win % 44.4%
Draw % 28.0%
Away Win % 27.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 882
Avg Brier Score 0.6311
Pick Accuracy 43.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6310
Market Brier 0.6321
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 18
Value Bet Hit Rate 16.7%
ROI (flat stake) 30.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 17 of 882 matches had at least one · staked 18.00, profit 5.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 4 25.0% 4.00 1.75 43.8%
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 12 16.7% 12.00 5.75 47.9%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.2% 13.8% 152
20–30% 26.8% 26.8% 1226
30–40% 34.4% 34.3% 624
40–50% 44.2% 45.2% 414
50–60% 54.5% 52.8% 176
60–70% 63.6% 69.8% 53
70–80% 70.0% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
21.07.23 Legia Warszawa vs LKS Lodz 3-0 62% 70% -11.9 23% 22% 3.6 16% 15% 7.1
21.07.23 Warta Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin 0-1 29% 29% -2.8 29% 31% -4.7 42% 48% -11.6
22.07.23 Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan 1-2 30% 31% -3.1 31% 34% -7.5 38% 43% -9.9
22.07.23 Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 67% 76% -11.8 20% 19% 6.5 12% 11% 14.6
22.07.23 Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow 2-2 32% 32% -1.3 30% 32% -6.4 38% 43% -12.7
23.07.23 Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom 0-2 43% 47% -7.8 29% 30% -5.1 28% 31% -7.9
23.07.23 Widzew Lodz vs Puszcza Niepolomice 3-2 50% 54% -8.2 27% 29% -4.3 23% 24% -5.7
23.07.23 Zaglebie Lubin vs Ruch Chorzow 2-1 48% 53% -9.5 27% 29% -4.1 24% 26% -5.7
24.07.23 Korona Kielce vs Slask Wroclaw 1-1 39% 42% -6.8 29% 31% -5.3 32% 35% -9.5
29.07.23 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Puszcza Niepolomice 4-1 46% 50% -7.9 27% 29% -4.3 27% 29% -9.5
29.07.23 Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 37% 39% -5.5 30% 31% -5.4 33% 37% -9.9
29.07.23 Warta Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze 2-0 39% 42% -7.5 30% 32% -6.5 31% 34% -7.6
30.07.23 Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom 2-0 51% 56% -9.8 27% 29% -4.8 22% 23% -4.0
30.07.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz 2-1 56% 63% -11.6 24% 24% -0.1 20% 20% -1.4
30.07.23 Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice 0-0 24% 23% 5.9 29% 31% -4.3 46% 53% -13.3
04.08.23 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz 2-1 40% 43% -7.2 28% 29% -3.7 31% 34% -9.2
04.08.23 LKS Lodz vs Korona Kielce 2-1 40% 44% -9.1 29% 30% -4.8 31% 33% -7.8
05.08.23 Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice 0-0 28% 26% 5.2 30% 31% -5.1 43% 50% -14.7
05.08.23 Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow 0-1 46% 49% -6.5 29% 31% -7.1 25% 28% -8.8
05.08.23 Rakow Czestochowa vs Warta Poznan 2-2 57% 63% -10.5 26% 27% -4.4 18% 17% 0.6
06.08.23 Legia Warszawa vs Ruch Chorzow 3-0 60% 66% -9.0 23% 23% -0.6 17% 17% -3.5
06.08.23 Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan 1-1 27% 28% -2.2 27% 27% -0.7 46% 53% -13.5
11.08.23 Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 41% 43% -6.7 29% 30% -4.5 31% 33% -8.5
11.08.23 Piast Gliwice vs Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 33% 34% -1.9 32% 34% -8.1 35% 39% -10.6
12.08.23 Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze 0-1 42% 45% -8.4 29% 30% -5.1 30% 32% -8.2
12.08.23 Widzew Lodz vs LKS Lodz 1-0 45% 50% -9.4 28% 29% -4.0 26% 28% -4.8
13.08.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom 0-2 47% 52% -9.0 27% 28% -2.1 26% 27% -5.0
13.08.23 Puszcza Niepolomice vs Legia Warszawa 1-1 20% 18% 7.2 26% 26% 0.7 55% 64% -14.2
18.08.23 Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Lodz 1-1 43% 47% -7.7 28% 29% -3.9 29% 31% -7.8
18.08.23 Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 52% 58% -10.6 27% 28% -3.3 21% 22% -1.3
19.08.23 Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznan 3-2 45% 49% -7.1 29% 31% -6.2 25% 27% -6.1
19.08.23 Rakow Czestochowa vs Stal Mielec 2-0 65% 73% -10.8 22% 21% 2.1 13% 12% 7.0
19.08.23 Ruch Chorzow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-1 37% 39% -4.7 29% 31% -5.2 33% 38% -11.3
20.08.23 Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce 1-0 62% 70% -11.9 23% 22% 2.2 16% 15% 6.0
20.08.23 LKS Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin 1-0 30% 32% -6.0 27% 28% -1.4 42% 48% -11.2
20.08.23 Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan 3-1 25% 25% -0.9 27% 28% -1.5 48% 55% -12.4
21.08.23 Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice 1-1 32% 32% -1.8 30% 32% -5.8 38% 43% -10.9
25.08.23 Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom 2-0 27% 26% 1.0 28% 29% -1.8 45% 52% -12.5
25.08.23 Widzew Lodz vs Slask Wroclaw 0-2 42% 45% -7.8 29% 30% -4.4 29% 31% -6.7
26.08.23 Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzow 0-0 60% 67% -10.5 25% 26% -3.2 16% 15% 4.7
26.08.23 Warta Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow 0-0 41% 44% -7.2 30% 32% -6.6 29% 31% -6.9
27.08.23 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze 4-1 43% 48% -8.8 29% 30% -4.1 28% 29% -3.8
27.08.23 Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 36% 38% -5.2 30% 31% -5.3 34% 38% -10.1
30.08.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw 0-2 53% 58% -10.2 25% 26% -0.7 22% 23% -3.2
02.09.23 Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce 0-0 47% 53% -10.0 28% 29% -4.6 25% 26% -4.1
02.09.23 Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze 1-1 67% 76% -12.2 20% 19% 7.3 13% 11% 14.2
02.09.23 Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice 1-1 33% 34% -3.1 31% 33% -7.3 36% 41% -11.2
03.09.23 Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Lodz 3-1 60% 68% -11.6 23% 23% 1.1 17% 17% 1.2
03.09.23 Rakow Czestochowa vs Puszcza Niepolomice 2-0 66% 74% -11.5 21% 21% 2.3 13% 12% 8.3
03.09.23 Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 40% 43% -6.8 29% 30% -4.5 31% 34% -8.9
03.09.23 Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin 1-0 36% 38% -7.0 27% 28% -1.6 37% 42% -11.4
15.09.23 Gornik Zabrze vs Ruch Chorzow 1-0 43% 47% -7.9 29% 30% -5.1 28% 31% -7.8
16.09.23 Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa 1-1 41% 44% -8.1 30% 31% -5.1 30% 31% -5.6
16.09.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce 3-1 53% 59% -10.3 25% 26% -1.0 22% 23% -3.9
16.09.23 Rakow Czestochowa vs LKS Lodz 1-0 65% 74% -12.5 21% 20% 6.0 14% 12% 12.0
17.09.23 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Radomiak Radom 3-2 38% 41% -7.3 29% 30% -4.3 33% 36% -8.8
17.09.23 Warta Poznan vs Lech Poznan 0-2 21% 19% 8.7 28% 29% -2.3 51% 60% -13.7
17.09.23 Widzew Lodz vs Cracovia Krakow 2-0 37% 39% -6.0 29% 31% -5.0 34% 38% -10.2
18.09.23 Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin 4-2 31% 32% -3.6 29% 29% -2.9 40% 45% -11.2
22.09.23 Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz 1-1 40% 43% -6.5 29% 30% -4.6 31% 34% -9.3
22.09.23 LKS Lodz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 34% 36% -5.7 30% 31% -5.2 36% 40% -9.9
23.09.23 Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin 1-5 36% 38% -6.0 29% 30% -4.1 35% 38% -9.5
23.09.23 Lech Poznan vs Stal Mielec 2-1 70% 79% -11.1 19% 17% 7.3 11% 10% 10.3
23.09.23 Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 57% 64% -11.1 25% 26% -2.2 18% 18% 0.5
23.09.23 Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice 1-0 27% 28% -1.5 30% 32% -6.0 42% 48% -11.1
24.09.23 Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze 2-1 60% 67% -11.2 23% 23% 1.1 17% 17% 2.1
24.09.23 Ruch Chorzow vs Rakow Czestochowa 3-5 23% 23% 2.7 27% 28% -1.2 49% 56% -12.9
24.09.23 Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznan 1-0 45% 49% -8.1 29% 31% -5.6 26% 28% -5.9
27.09.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa 3-4 36% 39% -7.1 28% 29% -2.6 36% 40% -10.7
28.09.23 Lech Poznan vs Rakow Czestochowa 4-1 45% 49% -8.6 29% 30% -5.3 27% 29% -6.5
29.09.23 Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Lodz 3-2 54% 60% -10.5 27% 28% -3.7 19% 19% 1.4
29.09.23 Stal Mielec vs Korona Kielce 2-3 37% 39% -6.1 29% 31% -5.0 34% 38% -10.1
30.09.23 LKS Lodz vs Cracovia Krakow 0-2 35% 38% -7.6 30% 32% -6.1 35% 38% -7.7
01.10.23 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warszawa 2-0 33% 36% -6.7 28% 29% -3.3 38% 43% -10.2
01.10.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan 5-0 35% 38% -6.4 28% 29% -2.1 37% 41% -10.1
01.10.23 Rakow Czestochowa vs Radomiak Radom 3-0 56% 63% -12.0 25% 25% -0.3 19% 19% 1.9
02.10.23 Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 37% 39% -5.9 29% 30% -4.2 34% 38% -9.7
06.10.23 Korona Kielce vs Warta Poznan 1-1 39% 42% -6.0 32% 34% -8.3 29% 31% -6.5
06.10.23 Lech Poznan vs Puszcza Niepolomice 4-1 68% 77% -11.3 20% 19% 5.0 12% 11% 12.2
07.10.23 Radomiak Radom vs LKS Lodz 3-0 51% 57% -10.4 27% 28% -3.6 22% 23% -3.2
07.10.23 Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Szczecin 0-3 27% 27% -0.3 27% 27% -0.2 46% 53% -13.3
07.10.23 Widzew Lodz vs Stal Mielec 1-0 49% 53% -9.2 28% 29% -3.7 24% 25% -4.4
07.10.23 Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice 1-1 30% 31% -2.5 30% 31% -5.0 40% 45% -11.3
08.10.23 Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-4 42% 47% -8.7 29% 30% -4.5 29% 30% -5.6
08.10.23 Legia Warszawa vs Rakow Czestochowa 1-2 43% 49% -11.1 28% 29% -2.1 29% 29% -2.7
08.10.23 Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze 1-1 43% 47% -7.5 29% 30% -4.8 28% 30% -7.1
20.10.23 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 42% 47% -8.7 28% 29% -4.4 29% 32% -8.8
20.10.23 Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin 0-0 44% 49% -10.0 29% 30% -5.5 27% 29% -6.7
21.10.23 Lech Poznan vs LKS Lodz 3-1 67% 76% -11.6 20% 19% 5.7 12% 11% 11.6
21.10.23 Puszcza Niepolomice vs Cracovia Krakow 1-1 28% 29% -1.1 29% 30% -4.2 43% 49% -12.5
21.10.23 Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa 4-0 25% 25% 1.7 28% 29% -2.0 47% 53% -12.9
22.10.23 Gornik Zabrze vs Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 26% 27% -3.2 28% 29% -2.4 46% 52% -11.3
22.10.23 Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce 1-1 47% 52% -9.2 28% 29% -3.6 25% 27% -5.8
24.10.23 Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-3 55% 61% -10.7 25% 26% -2.1 20% 21% -3.5
27.10.23 Korona Kielce vs Puszcza Niepolomice 5-3 49% 54% -9.3 28% 29% -3.7 23% 24% -3.7
27.10.23 LKS Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze 0-5 38% 41% -7.2 30% 31% -5.5 33% 36% -8.8
28.10.23 Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan 1-1 30% 31% -2.8 29% 30% -4.1 41% 47% -11.8
28.10.23 Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 49% 54% -9.9 27% 28% -3.0 24% 26% -5.1
28.10.23 Warta Poznan vs Piast Gliwice 1-1 26% 26% 1.8 32% 34% -8.0 42% 48% -11.5
29.10.23 Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec 1-3 68% 76% -11.5 20% 19% 5.5 12% 11% 11.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 882 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Gornik Zabrze 2083.66
2 Lech Poznan 2078.23
3 Legia Warszawa 2047.53
4 Wisla Krakow 2023.18
5 Jagiellonia Bialystok 2007.09
6 GKS Katowice 2005.76
7 Korona Kielce 1980.99
8 Wieczysta Krakow 1971.46
9 Cracovia Krakow 1946.05
10 Pogon Szczecin 1943.81
11 Wisla Plock 1936.54
12 Zaglebie Lubin 1929.41
13 Widzew Lodz 1925.64
14 Motor Lublin 1924.31
15 Rakow Czestochowa 1919.55
16 Piast Gliwice 1914.35
17 Slask Wroclaw 1890.21
18 Radomiak Radom 1886.48

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Lech Poznan 2035.95
2 Gornik Zabrze 2004.88
3 Legia Warszawa 1991.49
4 Jagiellonia Bialystok 1980.80
5 Widzew Lodz 1943.79
6 Wieczysta Krakow 1932.11
7 Wisla Krakow 1930.61
8 GKS Katowice 1924.12
9 Cracovia Krakow 1923.48
10 Korona Kielce 1922.60
11 Rakow Czestochowa 1903.01
12 Motor Lublin 1901.96
13 Pogon Szczecin 1887.87
14 Piast Gliwice 1874.57
15 Wisla Plock 1856.61
16 Zaglebie Lubin 1831.97
17 Slask Wroclaw 1827.43
18 Radomiak Radom 1783.69