ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 874
Avg Goals 2.46
Avg Home 1.30
Avg Away 1.15
Home Win % 40.7%
Draw % 27.1%
Away Win % 32.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 874
Avg Brier Score 0.6393
Pick Accuracy 45.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6398
Market Brier 0.6379
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 11
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 90.9% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 10 of 874 matches had at least one · staked 11.00, profit -11.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 10 0.0% 10.00 -10.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.9% 10.8% 37
20–30% 27.6% 26.0% 1076
30–40% 33.9% 34.0% 1014
40–50% 43.8% 47.2% 392
50–60% 53.0% 55.8% 95
60–70% 61.5% 87.5% 8
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
12.08.23 Nacional Madeira vs Maritimo Funchal 1-2 29% 34% -13.1 29% 31% -7.4 42% 47% -10.5
12.08.23 Pacos Ferreira vs Uniao Leiria 0-0 44% 53% -15.8 28% 29% -4.6 28% 29% -6.1
13.08.23 Academico Viseu vs Vilaverdense 1-1 48% 60% -19.7 27% 28% -2.4 25% 23% 6.2
13.08.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs CD Mafra 3-2 42% 50% -16.6 28% 30% -6.1 30% 32% -7.4
13.08.23 FC Penafiel vs Leixoes Matosinhos 3-0 42% 50% -15.0 30% 32% -7.6 28% 29% -5.8
13.08.23 FC Porto II vs CD Tondela 1-1 40% 47% -14.1 30% 32% -8.2 30% 34% -10.3
15.08.23 UD Oliveirense vs CD Feirense 3-1 39% 45% -14.6 29% 31% -6.3 32% 34% -7.6
16.08.23 Santa Clara vs SCU Torreense 2-0 51% 62% -17.1 27% 29% -4.2 21% 21% 1.7
18.08.23 Maritimo Funchal vs AVS Futebol 0-1 52% 62% -16.5 26% 27% -2.5 22% 22% -1.9
19.08.23 CD Mafra vs Pacos Ferreira 2-1 33% 38% -13.8 29% 31% -7.0 38% 42% -10.5
19.08.23 CD Tondela vs Academico Viseu 2-2 38% 43% -13.4 30% 32% -7.4 32% 36% -9.1
19.08.23 Uniao Leiria vs Benfica Lisboa II 3-1 45% 53% -14.8 28% 29% -4.7 27% 29% -6.8
20.08.23 CD Feirense vs FC Penafiel 2-0 37% 42% -12.7 31% 33% -8.2 33% 36% -8.8
20.08.23 CF Os Belenenses vs FC Porto II 1-1 33% 38% -13.0 29% 30% -5.6 38% 43% -10.8
20.08.23 Vilaverdense vs UD Oliveirense 1-2 40% 48% -15.7 29% 31% -6.1 31% 33% -7.1
21.08.23 Leixoes Matosinhos vs Santa Clara 0-0 30% 33% -10.3 30% 32% -8.1 40% 47% -13.1
21.08.23 SCU Torreense vs Nacional Madeira 3-0 46% 56% -17.7 29% 30% -5.5 25% 25% 0.6
26.08.23 Academico Viseu vs CD Feirense 2-0 49% 60% -18.0 28% 29% -4.8 23% 23% 2.0
26.08.23 Pacos Ferreira vs CD Tondela 5-1 46% 53% -13.8 29% 31% -6.4 25% 27% -7.0
27.08.23 AVS Futebol vs SCU Torreense 0-0 43% 51% -15.7 30% 32% -7.9 28% 29% -5.9
27.08.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs Maritimo Funchal 0-1 34% 39% -13.1 29% 30% -5.8 37% 42% -11.5
27.08.23 FC Porto II vs Uniao Leiria 2-1 35% 41% -13.2 30% 32% -7.9 35% 39% -11.1
27.08.23 UD Oliveirense vs FC Penafiel 3-1 37% 43% -13.8 29% 31% -6.2 33% 36% -8.6
28.08.23 Nacional Madeira vs Leixoes Matosinhos 3-1 40% 48% -15.9 29% 31% -6.4 31% 34% -8.1
02.09.23 CD Feirense vs Santa Clara 0-2 28% 31% -8.4 30% 32% -8.0 42% 49% -13.6
02.09.23 CD Mafra vs FC Porto II 2-1 39% 45% -14.8 29% 31% -6.6 32% 35% -8.6
02.09.23 FC Penafiel vs Academico Viseu 0-0 30% 33% -9.2 30% 32% -7.9 40% 47% -13.9
02.09.23 Maritimo Funchal vs Pacos Ferreira 2-0 37% 42% -12.2 30% 32% -7.4 33% 37% -10.6
02.09.23 Uniao Leiria vs AVS Futebol 1-2 40% 45% -12.9 30% 32% -7.2 30% 33% -8.5
03.09.23 Leixoes Matosinhos vs Benfica Lisboa II 1-1 32% 36% -9.1 29% 31% -6.2 39% 45% -14.9
03.09.23 SCU Torreense vs UD Oliveirense 3-1 48% 58% -17.5 28% 29% -3.6 25% 25% -0.9
15.09.23 Pacos Ferreira vs Leixoes Matosinhos 1-2 54% 64% -16.0 26% 27% -2.5 20% 20% 0.7
16.09.23 FC Porto II vs Maritimo Funchal 0-2 38% 43% -13.6 30% 32% -7.1 32% 35% -7.5
16.09.23 Nacional Madeira vs CD Feirense 1-0 39% 45% -14.8 29% 31% -6.2 32% 36% -9.2
16.09.23 Santa Clara vs FC Penafiel 0-0 57% 69% -17.6 26% 27% -2.6 16% 14% 15.1
17.09.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs SCU Torreense 0-2 39% 45% -13.8 29% 31% -6.6 32% 35% -9.8
17.09.23 CF Os Belenenses vs Uniao Leiria 0-5 29% 32% -9.2 30% 32% -7.5 41% 47% -12.1
17.09.23 UD Oliveirense vs Academico Viseu 2-2 32% 37% -12.7 28% 30% -6.0 39% 44% -11.9
29.09.23 Vilaverdense vs Benfica Lisboa II 1-4 36% 42% -13.1 29% 31% -6.1 35% 39% -11.0
30.09.23 Maritimo Funchal vs CD Mafra 1-2 48% 58% -17.1 28% 29% -4.7 24% 24% -0.1
30.09.23 UD Oliveirense vs Santa Clara 1-1 28% 31% -9.7 29% 31% -6.3 43% 49% -12.0
01.10.23 Academico Viseu vs AVS Futebol 1-2 40% 47% -14.1 29% 31% -6.6 31% 34% -9.0
01.10.23 CD Feirense vs Pacos Ferreira 1-0 35% 40% -13.3 30% 32% -7.5 35% 39% -9.5
01.10.23 Leixoes Matosinhos vs FC Porto II 1-3 38% 43% -12.6 30% 32% -7.8 32% 36% -11.3
01.10.23 Uniao Leiria vs CD Tondela 2-2 45% 52% -13.9 29% 31% -6.4 26% 28% -5.9
02.10.23 FC Penafiel vs Nacional Madeira 1-4 39% 45% -14.2 30% 32% -8.0 31% 35% -10.1
02.10.23 SCU Torreense vs CF Os Belenenses 2-2 52% 63% -17.7 27% 28% -2.9 21% 20% 4.6
06.10.23 Santa Clara vs Academico Viseu 2-0 43% 50% -14.9 30% 32% -7.6 28% 29% -5.9
07.10.23 CD Tondela vs Leixoes Matosinhos 4-2 43% 51% -15.6 30% 32% -7.9 27% 29% -5.5
07.10.23 Nacional Madeira vs UD Oliveirense 5-0 41% 48% -14.2 28% 29% -4.6 31% 34% -9.8
07.10.23 Pacos Ferreira vs Vilaverdense 2-0 50% 61% -17.1 28% 29% -4.7 22% 21% 3.2
08.10.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs CD Feirense 2-3 41% 48% -14.2 29% 30% -5.8 31% 34% -9.8
08.10.23 CD Mafra vs Uniao Leiria 3-0 35% 41% -13.5 30% 32% -7.9 35% 39% -10.8
08.10.23 CF Os Belenenses vs Maritimo Funchal 1-2 28% 31% -9.3 29% 31% -6.2 43% 49% -12.3
08.10.23 FC Porto II vs SCU Torreense 2-2 36% 41% -12.3 30% 32% -7.5 34% 38% -10.7
09.10.23 AVS Futebol vs FC Penafiel 1-0 55% 67% -18.1 26% 27% -2.2 19% 17% 9.0
27.10.23 FC Penafiel vs CD Mafra 1-0 33% 37% -11.4 30% 32% -7.5 37% 42% -11.5
28.10.23 Leixoes Matosinhos vs CF Os Belenenses 1-0 41% 48% -13.9 30% 32% -7.9 29% 32% -9.2
28.10.23 Maritimo Funchal vs CD Tondela 2-2 52% 63% -18.5 27% 28% -2.7 21% 20% 6.8
28.10.23 SCU Torreense vs Pacos Ferreira 1-2 42% 50% -16.7 29% 31% -6.8 29% 31% -5.1
29.10.23 Academico Viseu vs Nacional Madeira 1-1 41% 49% -15.3 28% 29% -4.9 31% 34% -9.4
29.10.23 CD Feirense vs AVS Futebol 1-2 32% 36% -11.5 30% 32% -7.7 39% 43% -11.2
29.10.23 Santa Clara vs Benfica Lisboa II 1-1 53% 65% -17.6 26% 27% -1.8 21% 20% 3.1
29.10.23 UD Oliveirense vs Uniao Leiria 1-4 34% 38% -12.1 28% 29% -3.7 39% 44% -13.0
30.10.23 Vilaverdense vs FC Porto II 0-5 31% 33% -7.5 29% 30% -5.4 41% 48% -14.9
04.11.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs FC Penafiel 1-0 40% 47% -13.2 29% 31% -6.2 31% 34% -10.7
04.11.23 CD Mafra vs Leixoes Matosinhos 0-1 46% 53% -14.8 29% 30% -5.9 26% 28% -6.6
04.11.23 FC Porto II vs CD Feirense 2-0 45% 54% -16.7 28% 29% -4.5 27% 28% -3.3
05.11.23 AVS Futebol vs UD Oliveirense 0-1 56% 68% -17.5 25% 25% 0.2 18% 17% 6.2
05.11.23 CD Tondela vs SCU Torreense 1-2 39% 45% -14.4 29% 31% -6.6 32% 35% -9.1
05.11.23 Uniao Leiria vs Maritimo Funchal 4-3 35% 42% -15.0 29% 31% -7.0 36% 39% -9.4
06.11.23 Pacos Ferreira vs Academico Viseu 1-0 38% 44% -14.0 30% 32% -7.9 32% 36% -10.2
10.11.23 CD Feirense vs CF Os Belenenses 1-0 43% 51% -15.2 29% 31% -6.3 28% 29% -5.1
11.11.23 FC Penafiel vs FC Porto II 3-2 30% 33% -8.8 28% 30% -6.1 41% 49% -15.6
11.11.23 Nacional Madeira vs Uniao Leiria 2-0 39% 45% -13.7 29% 30% -5.5 32% 36% -10.1
11.11.23 UD Oliveirense vs Pacos Ferreira 0-0 30% 34% -10.9 28% 29% -5.2 42% 49% -14.1
12.11.23 Academico Viseu vs Benfica Lisboa II 1-0 44% 51% -13.6 28% 29% -4.6 28% 30% -8.8
12.11.23 Leixoes Matosinhos vs Maritimo Funchal 0-1 27% 29% -9.2 29% 31% -7.0 45% 52% -13.8
12.11.23 SCU Torreense vs CD Mafra 0-0 39% 44% -13.2 30% 32% -7.6 32% 35% -9.8
18.11.23 CD Tondela vs CD Feirense 2-0 45% 53% -15.8 29% 31% -6.8 26% 27% -4.3
18.11.23 Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara 0-2 37% 43% -14.0 30% 33% -8.5 33% 36% -7.9
18.11.23 Uniao Leiria vs Leixoes Matosinhos 0-0 49% 58% -15.9 27% 28% -3.1 24% 25% -4.4
19.11.23 CF Os Belenenses vs FC Penafiel 2-0 37% 42% -11.5 31% 33% -8.3 33% 36% -10.4
19.11.23 Maritimo Funchal vs SCU Torreense 1-2 50% 61% -17.9 28% 29% -5.0 22% 22% 2.6
25.11.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs UD Oliveirense 1-1 46% 55% -16.0 27% 29% -4.0 27% 29% -6.7
25.11.23 FC Porto II vs Academico Viseu 3-0 40% 48% -15.3 29% 31% -6.4 31% 34% -8.9
01.12.23 Academico Viseu vs CF Os Belenenses 3-1 50% 60% -16.6 28% 29% -5.1 22% 22% 0.4
01.12.23 Vilaverdense vs Uniao Leiria 1-0 26% 28% -5.5 28% 29% -4.9 46% 54% -15.3
02.12.23 AVS Futebol vs Benfica Lisboa II 1-0 50% 60% -16.2 28% 29% -5.2 22% 22% -0.6
02.12.23 Nacional Madeira vs Pacos Ferreira 2-1 42% 50% -15.6 29% 31% -6.0 29% 31% -6.1
02.12.23 UD Oliveirense vs FC Porto II 1-3 30% 34% -10.8 28% 29% -5.2 42% 49% -14.2
03.12.23 FC Penafiel vs CD Tondela 0-2 35% 40% -12.7 30% 33% -9.0 35% 39% -11.4
03.12.23 Santa Clara vs Maritimo Funchal 2-1 40% 45% -12.7 30% 33% -8.8 30% 33% -10.2
03.12.23 SCU Torreense vs Leixoes Matosinhos 0-0 43% 50% -13.3 30% 32% -7.9 27% 29% -8.4
04.12.23 CD Feirense vs CD Mafra 3-2 30% 33% -9.2 30% 32% -7.9 40% 47% -13.9
08.12.23 Uniao Leiria vs SCU Torreense 1-0 45% 53% -15.8 29% 31% -6.8 26% 27% -4.4
09.12.23 Benfica Lisboa II vs Nacional Madeira 2-1 33% 38% -11.9 29% 30% -5.7 38% 43% -12.2
09.12.23 FC Porto II vs AVS Futebol 2-3 40% 47% -14.9 29% 31% -6.2 31% 33% -6.6
09.12.23 Leixoes Matosinhos vs CD Feirense 0-0 45% 53% -15.3 29% 31% -6.2 26% 27% -3.2
09.12.23 Pacos Ferreira vs FC Penafiel 2-1 48% 56% -15.7 29% 30% -5.8 24% 24% -2.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 874 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

19 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 SCU Torreense 1947.06
2 CD Tondela 1885.95
3 Leixoes Matosinhos 1883.19
4 Uniao Leiria 1876.73
5 FC Vizela 1849.70
6 FC Penafiel 1835.54
7 Lusitania FC Lourosa 1825.44
8 SC Farense 1824.43
9 Academica Coimbra OAF 1818.78
10 Sporting Lisboa II 1807.61
11 Portimonense SC 1806.01
12 Benfica Lisboa II 1792.20
13 FC Felgueiras 1791.32
14 Amarante FC 1764.28
15 Academica Coimbra 1757.10
16 GD Chaves 1743.24
17 FC Porto II 1740.55
18 CD Feirense 1738.86
19 AVS Futebol 1706.04

Away Ratings

19 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Leixoes Matosinhos 1849.82
2 SC Farense 1825.44
3 Uniao Leiria 1816.41
4 SCU Torreense 1806.01
5 Academica Coimbra OAF 1802.65
6 CD Tondela 1793.03
7 Sporting Lisboa II 1784.22
8 GD Chaves 1764.35
9 Academica Coimbra 1760.91
10 FC Felgueiras 1750.10
11 FC Vizela 1743.24
12 Benfica Lisboa II 1738.86
13 Amarante FC 1734.91
14 Portimonense SC 1731.74
15 CD Feirense 1727.25
16 FC Penafiel 1722.81
17 Lusitania FC Lourosa 1719.54
18 AVS Futebol 1702.43
19 FC Porto II 1672.11